Recession is over - Whats the 6 month prognosis?

m5ex9oqjawdg2i · 05-07-2010 1:47am

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Erm, nonsense. Speculating on the markets is an entirely different thing to preparing oneself for what will happen in a sensible way. I know with 100% certainty that house prices will continue to fall, but I don't have the capital or financial expertise to successfully bet on that outcome. Nothing to do with lack of confidence about what's going to happen, just a realisation that playing the markets is a job for professionals, not amateurs. If I had a million quid and a knowledgeable stockbroker I would very happily put half of it on a short bet on Irish house prices. Bit since I have neither, I can't. But I can certainly continue to rent and advise people as best I can as to what's going on.

You cannot predict the future of the economy, medium to long term. The only thing you can look at are past trends and then you can make a guess at best, that's all it is.

Houses will continue to fall because they were outrageously over priced. We can guess what may happen over the next few years, but nothing is certain. You can be more certain about the next 6 months going by current trends. Some houses in Dublin recently went for a substantial amount more than their guided prices. I wouldn't take this as an indicator either, just saying.

Personally I believe that house prices will fall quite a bit before it begins to level out. I'll take a guess that in 18 months thing might start to stabilise.

*Edit*

I meant to say that I did like your posts, very informative. Thanks for that

oceanclub · 05-07-2010 1:49am

CluelessGirl wrote: »

I think they will increase slightly next year......but it will depend on where your house is.....if its a good address it will increase in value faster.;)

Yeah, I reckon the 400,000 jobless will be rushing out to buy houses now that Biffo has told them that the recession is over.

Actually, I was trying to be sarcastic there, but I can actually imagine that happening.

EDIT: Houses are down 7% this year alone so far; anyone still saying that they'll go up this year (as in, there'll be an 8% increase between now and December?)

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0705/houses.html

P.

CluelessGirl · 05-07-2010 3:14pm

C'mon you speculators be optimistic.......don't believe what you see on the tv or read in the financial reports in the papers.....it is all hearsay!

They didn't see it coming...........:rolleyes:

oceanclub · 05-07-2010 3:22pm

CluelessGirl wrote: »

C'mon you speculators be optimistic.......don't believe what you see on the tv or read in the financial reports in the papers.....it is all hearsay!

They didn't see it coming...........:rolleyes:

Indeed, you should listen to the wise words of Donie Cassidy, the leader of our senate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RaNqMzVIE0

P.

quozl · 05-07-2010 3:34pm

I've never seen the video of that before, just heard the audio.

It's definitely improved by the looks of bemusement from the lads behind him. Perhaps Senators are under-paid, imagine having to sit there and listen to that sort of thing, day in, day out.

mathie · 05-07-2010 5:04pm

oceanclub wrote: »

Yeah, I reckon the 400,000 jobless will be rushing out to buy houses now that Biffo has told them that the recession is over.

Actually, I was trying to be sarcastic there, but I can actually imagine that happening.

EDIT: Houses are down 7% this year alone so far; anyone still saying that they'll go up this year (as in, there'll be an 8% increase between now and December?)

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0705/houses.html

P.

And remember a 7% drop requires more than a 7% increase to break even.
Stupid maths!

Money Shot · 06-07-2010 10:49am

CluelessGirl wrote: »

C'mon you speculators be optimistic.......don't believe what you see on the tv or read in the financial reports in the papers.....it is all hearsay!

They didn't see it coming...........:rolleyes:

You had me at C'mon ..... I'm convinced:D

Do you want to go halves on a speculative property purchase, maybe something like the below ??

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=527922

Raiser · 06-07-2010 12:07pm

Money Shot wrote: »

You had me at C'mon ..... I'm convinced:D

Do you want to go halves on a speculative property purchase, maybe something like the below ??

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=527922

Loved the Jerry Maguire bit!!!!

- slightly off-topic; Where do Auctioneers get those cameras that zoom everything back and make box-rooms seem massive?

jetski · 06-07-2010 1:28pm

Raiser wrote: »

Loved the Jerry Maguire bit!!!!

- slightly off-topic; Where do Auctioneers get those cameras that zoom everything back and make box-rooms seem massive?

Its just a wide angle camera

jetski · 06-07-2010 1:31pm

there are some signs that the three-bedroom market in Dublin is stabilising, with asking prices for three-bedroom terraced houses increasing by 4%.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0705/houses.html

oceanclub · 06-07-2010 1:33pm

jetski wrote: »

there are some signs that the three-bedroom market in Dublin is stabilising, with asking prices for three-bedroom terraced houses increasing by 4%.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0705/houses.html

Well, they're asking prices, so the only thing it really signifies is the optimism of sellers. Plus how big exactly is the sample of three-bedroom terraced houses?

P.

jetski · 06-07-2010 1:39pm

At least make an effort when replying. Dont just speel of a load negativity.

If its the optimisim of sellers why are 3 bed semi owners the only ones who are optimistic. Thats not a question BTW.

oceanclub · 06-07-2010 1:41pm

jetski wrote: »

At least make an effort when replying. Dont just speel of a load negativity.

If its the optimisim of sellers why are 3 bed semi owners the only ones who are optimistic. Thats not a question BTW.

Cherry-picking one particular type of house (the sub-set of houses that are in the Dublin that are three-bedroomed _and_ that are terraced) and extrapolating any kind of inference from it is, well, the kind of thing that estate agency "ecomomists" are paid to do. Fair enough, they're getting paid to do this, but it doesn't mean the rest of us should pay any attention.

P.

Money Shot · 06-07-2010 1:49pm

jetski wrote: »

there are some signs that the three-bedroom market in Dublin is stabilising, with asking prices for three-bedroom terraced houses increasing by 4%.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0705/houses.html

There is logic there in fairness. There must be a large amount of people who bought unsuitable properties for various reasons, or who couldn't previously afford what they considered a suitable property, who now find themselves with family, or with notions of family. The 3 bed terraced would be the budget end of the family home market for the most part, so you might see some demand there while larger, more expensive properties and apartments would still be on life support, demand wise.

A lot of people wanting 3 bed terraced houses would be living in apartments, in negative equity for the most part, so I can't see demand being terribly buoyant even in that sector.

gussieg · 06-07-2010 4:23pm

In France, the idea of people spending loads more money on buying a house than buying a car seemed ridiculous to them. and hence some incredibly low priced houses admittedly some in areas more remote and inaccesible than leitrim. The French do have a fair few notions i would disagree with , but this is not one of them.

jetski · 06-07-2010 4:54pm

Thats interesting because i was in paris recently and made a point of looking in EA windows. i found it hard to find anything central that you would consider living in for less than a million.

dan_d · 06-07-2010 5:04pm

I'll second that - down the south of france at Christmas, where I'm a fairly regular visitor. Every second shop there is an EA, and they leave brochures in stacks outside the door. Out of curiousity, I took a few, since so many people compare us to Europe and say we're mad! I was speechless. For in or around 250,000 to 300,000 there, you're lucky to get a small 2 bed apartment.Usually it's around the 450,000eur mark A one bed doesn't really exsit - it's a studio apartment, which is around 200,000 to 250,000.Now I know the Riveria is expensive, but these properties were spread from Monaco all the way over to around Marseille, and inland.

A quick sample is on the link below.

http://www.capantibesproperties.com/listing.php?for_sale=1&lang=en

I'm not saying we don't have to drop further price wise. We absolutely do. But we're not the only country that's delusional about property!

gucciali · 09-07-2010 3:51pm

recession is over ??? Define recession !!

still no jobs
no money circulating in the country
government has to borrow millions from Europe weekly to keep Ireland afloat
maybe we are exporting again but the country is still in serious trouble , it will be a good ten years 'till this country gets steady and back on it's feet again

D3PO · 09-07-2010 4:07pm

gucciali wrote: »

recession is over ??? Define recession !!

2 or more consequetive quarters of negative growth is the exact definition of a recession.

The literal definition doesnt match reality though.

sealgaire · 09-07-2010 4:13pm

Over? Artifically propped up more like. It's all gonna come crashing down. Like it should have when it was propped up in 2001

Treehouse72 · 09-07-2010 4:16pm

gucciali wrote: »

recession is over ??? Define recession !!

still no jobs
no money circulating in the country
government has to borrow millions from Europe weekly to keep Ireland afloat
maybe we are exporting again but the country is still in serious trouble , it will be a good ten years 'till this country gets steady and back on it's feet again

Agree totally with the general thrust of your post gucciali.

Just one small bit of nit-picking with your terminology on the emboldened word....it is only "we" who are exporting if we consider Google and Dell as "we". In reality they are only, say, 12.5% "we"....:D

AARRRRGH · 11-07-2010 9:07pm

gussieg wrote: »

In France, the idea of people spending loads more money on buying a house than buying a car seemed ridiculous to them. and hence some incredibly low priced houses admittedly some in areas more remote and inaccesible than leitrim. The French do have a fair few notions i would disagree with , but this is not one of them.

What???

I spend a lot of time in France. Never ever seen that.

Why not link to some of these cheap houses in France.

beeno67 · 11-07-2010 11:23pm

AARRRRGH wrote: »

What???

I spend a lot of time in France. Never ever seen that.

Why not link to some of these cheap houses in France.

Average price of property in France is €2386 per sqm
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/France

CluelessGirl · 31-07-2010 10:01am

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0109/1224261978693.html

A rise by 10%?????

Comments please....................:D

Oafley Jones · 31-07-2010 10:12am

CluelessGirl wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0109/1224261978693.html

A rise by 10%?????

Comments please....................:D

I've noticed a lot of ****e in the media at the moment relating to housing, with the usual suspects banging on about value and affordability. Caroline Madden needs to realise that non stories like hers - repurposing PR from vested interests- was a major factor in inflating the bubble.

Treehouse72 · 31-07-2010 11:21am

CluelessGirl wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0109/1224261978693.html

A rise by 10%?????

Comments please....................:D

Great find, and an absolutely perfect example of either the cluelessness or the dishonesty of most "commentators" on property in this country. I mean, how in the name of sweet suffering Jaysus did these clowns come up with this prediction? So, so, so wrong it's almost funny. And one will still see someone from Bloxham's on RTE news offering an opinion as an "expert". Idiots, spoofers and liars the lot of them.

danbohan · 31-07-2010 11:24am

AARRRRGH wrote: »

What???

I spend a lot of time in France. Never ever seen that.

Why not link to some of these cheap houses in France.

i doubt hes ever been to leitrim let alone france , ignore.

Oafley Jones · 31-07-2010 11:53am

Treehouse72 wrote: »

Great find, and an absolutely perfect example of either the cluelessness or the dishonesty of most "commentators" on property in this country. I mean, how in the name of sweet suffering Jaysus did these clowns come up with this prediction? So, so, so wrong it's almost funny. And one will still see someone from Bloxham's on RTE news offering an opinion as an "expert". Idiots, spoofers and liars the lot of them.

I'd expect it from the vested interests. What really concerns me is that how this is gone reported. There's no analysis, comment or any insight what-so-ever from Madden. It's just straight spin presented as news.