Summer Football Transfer Betting Log

glanman

I did quite well last Summer and January transfer windows mostly betting on Skybet as the have the biggest market. Betfair has some betting but does not offer as good a choice. I made close to 1k and transfers with the highlights being Richard Dunne to Aston Villa €10 at 25/1, Campbell to Notts County €10 at 25/1, Huntallar to AC at 14/1 with €20, Downing to Villa €10 at 12/1, Ribery to stay with Bayern €20 at 6/1. I also caught them out nicely on Ribery as they still offered odds even though the German and Spainish windows were closed, English was still open, and he couldnt sing for either of the Spainish teams that were most linked with him. I had a few hairy moments when I went big on transfer that were all but secured, such as €300 on Crouch to sing for Spurs at 1/4 and then the deal to be called off, odds drifted to 3/1, only for it to go through in the end thankfully.

Sky have since change the bet style where they are not giving the option to bet on a player to stay with his current club, in most cases, only on him to join certain other clubs.

The terms are generally that its by the end of transfer window, which this year is 31 August for England, and that loan deals do count as transfers. This worked well last year as they offered the players current club as an option and if he went on loan to another club he still was with his original club.

So anyway will post my bets below and I would welcome advice and comment of them and potential bets. I base my betting on rumours, gut feeling, inside knowledge and getting in before they react to news. I do not have a bank specifically and will not be giving points, just my stake and price I got.

If anyone wants to follow these and wants to set up a skybet account, PM to get a referral for some free bets.

The market can be found here:

http://www.skybet.com/betting/football/transfer-specials/t10003041.html

glanman

I see this as massive value. They are currently offering 2/1 on him to remain a Man City player, with standard terms, "loan deals do not count" as a transfer. Valencia are said to be interested in signing him on loan as are his current loan club Santos, who have said they want to loan him again but cannot afford to sign him.

Robinho to be at Man City after 2010 Summer Transfer Window, Yes @ 5/2

Stake: €115.51 (max bet, £100 on this bet)
Potential Profit: €288.78

Current odds are now 2/1 to remain at City, not allowed to bet anymore on this market at the moment.

glanman

Robbie Keane to Aston Villa is 5/1 at the moment. He will be moving on, has said he doesn't want to sign for Celtic and there is a lot of chatter that it is all but done on Villa Forums. Villa need a striker and he will be relatively cheap.

ValueSeeker

I can see Robbie Keane at Wolves actually if a deal at Villa falls through. He grew up there, is loved by the fans and there is massive Irish Influence at the club, starting att eh top with Mick MacCarthy. I can see McCarthy going all out to get Hunt and Keane to the club this summer

10/1(skybet)

I'm also waiting on odds for Zamora and Duff to follow Hodgson to Liverpool. Duff is a Liverpool fan and was with Hodgson at Blackburn. Zamora is a player Hodgson loves and I think he will be top transfer target at Anfield this season. How times have changed.

I see Brede Hangelaand is quoted only at evens to follow Hodgson.

Luis Fabiano and Zlatan Ibra will be targets for Manchester City, I'm pretty confident of that. I see Skybet don't quote odds on Fabiano.

Also, while not the right thread, on the topic of Zamora, Skybet currently offer E/W odds of 80/1 for Zamora to be top scorer next season. With Liverpool not in the CL, that's fantastic odds on Zamora to take before he goes to Anfield and gets slashed.

Vurnon San Benito

Great thread. Something new bettingwise compared to the other logs around here including mine. Best of luck with it!

Dooceman.

glanman

ValueSeeker

Thanks for your input. Haven't heard enough about the Fulham lads to Pool so cant comment to much, will pay attention. I try to look for ones with good prices, 5/1 plus, or else over priced (ala robinho as I cant see him being sold, no one will meet his wages/pricetag).

Wolves have already signed Hunt. Dont see Keane going to Wolves. He won't go to Celtic as he is more ambitious(doesn't think they can meet his wages) so would see Wolves as the same....

glanman

glanman wrote: »

Robbie Keane to Aston Villa is 5/1 at the moment. He will be moving on, has said he doesn't want to sign for Celtic and there is a lot of chatter that it is all but done on Villa Forums. Villa need a striker and he will be relatively cheap.

Now gone into 11/8 to sign for Villa. Wont be betting at this.

SRFC90

Pretty sure Duff is a United fan, hense the reason why he delayed his move away from Chelsea when Liverpool were the only club to have made an offer, before choosing Newcastle over them!

davedaly7532

McGeady to Villa would be a much better bet imo no odds quoted on skybet. Also si would say Stephen Ireland to Villa looks a good bet (11/4) cause they'll almost certainly sell milner

glanman

I haven't seen many interesting bets so far, market has been slow and not offering much value. the way they have changed the style of bets has made it a lot harder also (in vast majority the option to stay with current club is not there)

If I could, I would take back my Robhino bet, not too confident on this now...

Pity I didn't get on Keane at 5s, gone to 8/13 now.

Milner is now 1/4 to go to city, as is Ashley Cole to go to Real. Other than the Cassilas comment, has there been much else to make it this short?

davedaly7532

well casillas wud defo be in the know and the fact that mourinho coached him before may close the deal.

BGP

There have also been rumours going around since Ashley Cole got injured and was fined by Chelsea that he was unhappy at the club and would be looking to move away at the end of the season. I guess the chance to work with Mourinho again will further incentivise him to move to Real Madrid.

I was going to make a few bets in this market, but I was disappointed that there is no longer an option for a player to stay with his current club.

ValueSeeker

There will be. A lot of books will be offering odds in the coming weeks.

glanman

Scott Parker to stay with West Ham, No @ 4.7,
Stake €13.00
Return, €48.30 (betfair)

Saw this on betfair while browsing this morning and thought it was too good to skip. He is 5/6 to join spurs on skybet so this is crazy value to join any club I think! €13 is all I could get on at this price. I think if milner leaves Villa they might try sign him to and with Mascherano probably leaving Pool they will be in the market too. Its a new market so very happy with that price as it is now 2.06.

To update my only other outstanding bet to date, feeling a little bit better about Robhino staying with City now, just can't see anyone meeting citys valuation.

Still a bit annoyed that sky have changed the market style, making it a lot harder to find good bets. They have certainly taken a tighter reign on the market this time around.

fkiely

I can see Parker staying to be honest. It's been the only promise Sullivan and Gold have made to the fans all summer and they've repeated it 4 or 5 times. It'd be a serious case of egg on their face if it happened. They've also offered him a new five year deal the other day. It's take a serious offer (£15 million +) to prise him away and combined with his age and questionable injury/suspension history, I'd be very surprised if he went.

glanman

I wouldn't believe a word that either of them say, they are chancers!!

I do think it is more likely he stay stays but at that price I think it is worth the few bob.

fkiely

Fair enough mate, don't let me put you off!

I'd just be wary enough of it to be honest. I'm a West Ham season ticket holder for years and despite the public perception of messers Gold and Sullivan, they're very astute chairmen and unless a major offer comes in, I fully expect to see Parker still at the club come September.

glanman

don't get me wrong, fully appreciate the input and you would have a lot better idea of where he stands with ye. I think he is a very good player, had a good season last year and will be attracting attention.

fkiely

No worries fella, just thought I'd give you a bit more insight in case you were looking for some. I could of course be completely wide of the mark. Good luck with the rest of them (not this one though...;))

Vurnon San Benito

Any betting on Hatem Ben Arfa moving to Newcastle ? :pac:

glanman

Bob bradley to be next permanent Villa manager. Feel this is ok for this log, a transfer of type. Didn't envisage betting on managers but have this in.

Rumours are that Bradley has quit as USA manager so I am putting 2+2 together.

So got on quick, €40 @ 7/4. Gone into 8/15 on betfair now...

Robhino transfer is looking unlikely which is good for me. He was named in their european squad while Bellamy, Ireland and even Da Silva were left out...

No other bets.

glanman

Ok coming to the business end of the transfer window, bets have been few and far between but i think there are opportunities on Betfair to do some good bets. need to confirm the t&cs of the market as they can be dodgy when it comes to loan deals. Will hopefully be updating this often in the next 24hrs!

Sir Vival

Sorry for dragging your log off topic but have you any opinions on tonight's games in cork.

In the football: St.Vincents v Kiskeam

In the hurling: Ballygarvan v Bandon

Vurnon San Benito

Doocey wrote: »

Any betting on Hatem Ben Arfa moving to Newcastle ? :pac:

Should've had betting on that, would've got a nice price :mad:

glanman

I wasn't around to update or bet in recent days so maybe I avoided losing more! All 2 bets made in this log lost and the third of Bob Bradley is a gonner too...

Sir Vival wrote: »

Sorry for dragging your log off topic but have you any opinions on tonight's games in cork.

In the football: St.Vincents v Kiskeam

In the hurling: Ballygarvan v Bandon

I would have gone Vincents and Bandon so lucky for you I wasn't able to post. Vicents won, bandon lost.

Doocey wrote: »

Should've had betting on that, would've got a nice price :mad:

Prob would have lost as loan transfers don't count as a transfer on sky...