Is There Light At The End Of The Tunnel

johnnyjb

Hi im on the dole and want to get a house "soon". What i mean is i want a job and would buy next year or the year after if things picked up. I hear all the usual complaining that you shouldnt buy now etc.. but will the market crash be good for the common joe if the country ever gets back to a normal level.

House prices were only going one direction few yrs ago or am i not looking at the little details in this

Edit
I hate this forum people are out to annoy everyone

ei.sdraob

I am truly perplexed by these types of threads lately, have the people of this country learned nothing?

danbohan

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I am truly perplexed by these types of threads lately, have the people of this country learned nothing?

dublin ireland , from irish times july 5 , In Dublin, the average house costs €339,598.

manchester uk , average house price £136,552 ,(e163817) bbc

difference of e175781

so yes its a wonderful time to buy a house in dublin

who_ru

all house prices here are delusional and based on people having access to credit that just doesn't exist - and also reflect the amount of negative equity they are in.

it suits the banks that prices are so delusional as it would make their lending practices appear at little less incredible.

yet the banks are determined to get back to that style of lending in the not too distant future to maintain sky high property prices.

the housing market here is in long slow meltdown - sellers and banks are like King Canute trying to stop the tide. it won't work of course but they have to put up a rear guard action so as to convince potential buyers that the bottom has been reached and prices can't go any lower. yet every other week we get a little reality check as to what the future will be like

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/haven-now-wants-20pc-deposit-from-firsttimers-2247155.html

fontanalis

johnnyjb wrote: »

Hi im on the dole and want to get a house "soon". What i mean is i want a job and would buy next year or the year after if things picked up. I hear all the usual complaining that you shouldnt buy now etc.. but will the market crash be good for the common joe if the country ever gets back to a normal level.

House prices were only going one direction few yrs ago or am i not looking at the little details in this

They go three ways; up (like a few years ago) now down and believe me after this it will only be upwards and upwards.
Buy now, bricks and mortar is your only bet, good time to be canny and savvy etc
Ok, how much have you saved for a deposit?
Why the big rush to buy straight after getting a job? Will your job be secure?
Is the area you will be buying in one you want to settle into permanently?

Treehouse72

johnnyjb wrote: »

Hi im on the dole and want to get a house "soon". What i mean is i want a job and would buy next year or the year after if things picked up. I hear all the usual complaining that you shouldnt buy now etc.. but will the market crash be good for the common joe if the country ever gets back to a normal level.

House prices were only going one direction few yrs ago or am i not looking at the little details in this

Johnny, how can you even ask this question dude? Is it not abundantly clear by now that ***COUGH, COUGH...CLEARS THROAT...SHARP INTAKE OF BREATH***....HIGH HOUSE PRICES ARE A BAD THING FOR EVERYONE!!

Please, please, please adjust your mindset on this. High house prices are not a good thing. When houses are cheap, it means that people need less money to pay for them - their wages do not need to be as high in order to maintain the exact same quality of life as they have now. This would make Ireland more competitive, and less money is poured into unproductive assets (houses) and can be poured into other things like wealth creating businesses and good social services instead. Moreover, without this need to fund huge mortgages and rents, we could drive down prices and costs across the economy - if the Tesco worker doesn't need to be paid so much to pay her rent, then the Corn Flakes she stacks will cost less too. Finally, with low property prices, people do not feel as stressed about rent or mortgage payments - this is great for a healthy society.

High house prices are bad for everyone. Spread the word.

Jimbo

danbohan wrote: »

dublin ireland , from irish times july 5 , In Dublin, the average house costs €339,598.

manchester uk , average house price £136,552 ,(e163817) bbc

difference of e175781

so yes its a wonderful time to buy a house in dublin

Who mentioned anything about Dublin? The OP is from Cork.
The average house price outside Dublin is about €200k.

But seriously OP, you might think it's a good time to be buying a house but it's an even better time to be renting. I dont think house prices have reached the floor just yet.

Where are you intending getting a deposit (8-10% min.) if you're on the dole?

Wibbler

johnnyjb wrote: »

House prices were only going one direction few yrs ago or am i not looking at the little details in this

Someone on another thread posted why house prices are not going to stop dropping for some time yet. When you look at the 10 or so reasons you can see that every one of them will exert further downward pressure on prices, with nothing to prop them up.

I like to keep an eye on the stats on this site:

http://www.collapso.net/index.html

Look at the number of price drops recorded versus the number of price rises (some of which are the fixing of errors). Price drops far outnumber the rises. When that starts to turnaround, we will have reached the bottom.

Now look at the graph here:

http://www.collapso.net/HouseAskingPriceVsTime2.jpg

It's more or less a straight line decline in median house price and it shows no sign of moderating.

All this points to prices coming down further. Of course only you can say if it's the best time to buy for you. Price is only one factor, albeit a big one.

Lando Griffin

You will need at least 20% legal fees & deposit, for a 200,000 house that equals 40,000.
You will need at least 6 months bank statements.
You will need at least 6 months wage slips.
You will need to earn at least 1200 + 400 euros a month after tax.
A much better option for you would be when you re-enter employment. Put your name down for affordable housing.

danbohan

Jimbo wrote: »

Who mentioned anything about Dublin? The OP is from Cork.
The average house price outside Dublin is about €200k.

But seriously OP, you might think it's a good time to be buying a house but it's an even better time to be renting. I dont think house prices have reached the floor just yet.

Where are you intending getting a deposit (8-10% min.) if you're on the dole?

i was using comparsion of a large uk city to dublin , The average house in ireland now costs €291,278. New houses cost an average of €259,845,, thease figures from irish times monday july 5th ,

dudara

johnnyjb wrote: »

if the country ever gets back to a normal level.

You've got to realise that the events of the last 10 years or so were not normal.

We've still got a way to go.

20goto10

According to the radio yesterday and based on myhome stats, asking prices for 3 bedroom houses have stabilised. Something like an increase of 0.4% for a semi-d and 0.3% for a terrace. Doesn't mean much really but at the very least things are not as bad as they used to be.

beeno67

danbohan wrote: »

i was using comparsion of a large uk city to dublin , The average house in ireland now costs €291,278. New houses cost an average of €259,845,, thease figures from irish times monday july 5th ,

Can you link these prices as they are totally at odds with the ESRI. The ESRI has Dublin property price at about €240,000. The national figure is about €200,000. You then compare the price for Manchester (one of the lowest priced areas in the UK) with Dublin the highest priced area in Ireland.

Using similar flawed logic I could say the average price in greater London is £406,608 or €488,706. So hey look Dublin property is undervalued.

20goto10

danbohan wrote: »

dublin ireland , from irish times july 5 , In Dublin, the average house costs €339,598.

manchester uk , average house price £136,552 ,(e163817) bbc

difference of e175781

so yes its a wonderful time to buy a house in dublin

wtf? The average Dublin house costs a lot less than that. And Manchester is no Dublin.

ei.sdraob

20goto10 wrote: »

And Manchester is no Dublin.

you are right, its better

quozl

20goto10 wrote: »

According to the radio yesterday and based on myhome stats, asking prices for 3 bedroom houses have stabilised. Something like an increase of 0.4% for a semi-d and 0.3% for a terrace. Doesn't mean much really but at the very least things are not as bad as they used to be.

LOL.

So this bottom is the real one, unlike the myriad bottoms we've had called over the last 2 years?

And this one is based on asking prices and is thus even more tenuous than some of the other false bottoms we've previously had?

How can you hear something like that on the radio and just accept it, and then regurgitate it on a web forum?

Bizarre.

20goto10

quozl wrote: »

LOL.

So this bottom is the real one, unlike the myriad bottoms we've had called over the last 2 years?

And this one is based on asking prices and is thus even more tenuous than some of the other false bottoms we've previously had?

How can you hear something like that on the radio and just accept it, and then regurgitate it on a web forum?

Bizarre.

All we have are asking prices. There is no database of actual prices. So what form of media would you prefer to believe, or do you rely on devine inspiration for your statistics? btw, have I said this is the bottom? I'm restating a fact that myhome shows a stabilisation in asking prices for 3 bed houses. In fact a slight increase. And my point is its a hell of a lot better than the constant 1% - 5% decreases that have been reported over the past 3 years.

20goto10

ei.sdraob wrote: »

you are right, its better

Nnonsense. With the exception of the football, it is without a doubt one of the most boring cities I've ever been to. And that is clearly reflected in the price of property.

quozl

20goto10 wrote: »

All we have are asking prices. There is no database of actual prices. So what form of media would you prefer to believe,

Actually I'd think about things I hear in the media, and not just blindly accept them.

This is similar to the media telling us that we're out of recession, a technical truth, but anybody who takes it at face value is guillible.

We've had surveys on asking prices previously (look at myhat.ie for example) that told us that there were slight price rises. A year ago.

Or check out Myhome's 2009 Q2 price survey, from one year ago http://old.myhome.ie/pictures/barometer/Full_MyHome_Property_BarometerQ2_2009.pdf. Oh look, ex-dublin new properties only fell by 0.61%, surely that count as stabilisation under your criteria, as you're happy enough picking random tiny subsets of data to build a case on? If so, how do you explain the last 12 months of price drops? Unless your methodology, and perhaps theirs, are completely spurious?

So, you can regurgitate this 'fact', or you can not. Not, is imo, much more useful as there are too many gullible types out there who will just accept what you say at face value.

BTW, if you want something based on actual sale figures, look at the PTSB figures http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/ . a 10% drop in the first 3 months of the year. Admittedly it's a lagging index, but at least it is not a work of fantasy like the one you mention.

20goto10

quozl wrote: »

Actually I'd think about things I hear in the media, and not just blindly accept them.

This is similar to the media telling us that we're out of recession, a technical truth, but anybody who takes it at face value is guillible.

You're talking nonsense. We are out of recession by every definition of the term. What other kind of truth is there other than the actual truth? Should we all wait until quozl says we are out of recession?

quozl wrote: »

So, you can regurgitate this 'fact', or you can not.

Thats exactly what I have done. Is that ok? Should I PM you and get you to proof read my posts in future?

quozl

20goto10 wrote: »

You're talking nonsense. We are out of recession by every definition of the term. What other kind of truth is there other than the actual truth? Should we all wait until quozl says we are out of recession?

LOL. For anybody reading this other than 20goto10 who would like a explanation of why this is daft, please check out [url] http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055956105#7[/url] I'm not going to reiterate such an obvious argument.

Thats exactly what I have done. Is that ok? Should I PM you and get you to proof read my posts in future?

If misleading information is posted somebody needs to rebut it so that others don't take it at face value. That myhome.ie survey is pure junk. If you would like to PM me future posts I would be happy to point out any flaws in private

By the way, check out http://old.myhome.ie/pdf/MyHomePropertyBarometerQ22010_PrintV.pdf

Oh look, 3 bed terraced properties in dublin rose by 4% in Q1 2010! That's 17% annualised. Wohoo we're back to the peak of the bubble! For 3 bed terraced houses in dublin that is. Strange how in their Q2 survey there's no mention of that? Perhaps they were wrong...

Perhaps they have little credibility and should not be accepted at face value?

20goto10

Right so we agree that asking prices are up on myhome.ie. Great.

kmick

Manchester has a population of 4m so its equivalent to the whole popoulation of the republic and some so lets compare Manchester with the Republic.

The UK has a very good system for tracking house prices and the average Manc house is £136,652 (€164,217)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/bn.stm

The republic has a very poor official system of tracking house prices (i.e. none) and therefore the esri seems a logical place to look.
http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/
"The average price for a house nationally in quarter 1 2010 was EUR 204,830"

Not so different (+40k).

20goto10

quozl wrote: »

LOL. For anybody reading this other than 20goto10 who would like a explanation of why this is daft, please check out http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055956105#7 I'm not going to reiterate such an obvious argument.

LOL you're gas! To paraphrase, the recession is not over until quozl says so.

fliball123

danbohan wrote: »

i was using comparsion of a large uk city to dublin , The average house in ireland now costs €291,278. New houses cost an average of €259,845,, thease figures from irish times monday july 5th ,

Why not do like for like as in compare Dublin with London???

quozl

20goto10 wrote: »

LOL you're gas! To paraphrase, the recession is not over until quozl says so.

An obvious straw-man argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man), I did not say that.

Deal with the actual argument or don't bother. I'll not restate it for you, it's clear enough for anybody else who would like to read it. Perhaps you should read it again, slowly.

20goto10

quozl wrote: »

An obvious straw-man argument (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man), I did not say that.

Deal with the actual argument or don't bother. I'll not restate it for you, it's clear enough for anybody else who would like to read it. Perhaps you should read it again, slowly.

you need to get down off your high horse. you've attacked my post and then later on provided a link which actually backs up my post. So what exactly are you arguing here? Or are you just picking an argument for the sake of arguing. There is a clear definition of what a recession is. You don't like that definition and thats your choice, but don't go talking down on people who don't follow by your own made up rules.

norrie rugger

kmick wrote: »

Manchester has a population of 4m so its equivalent to the whole popoulation of the republic and some so lets compare Manchester with the Republic.

The UK has a very good system for tracking house prices and the average Manc house is £136,652 (€164,217)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/bn.stm

The republic has a very poor official system of tracking house prices (i.e. none) and therefore the esri seems a logical place to look.
http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/
"The average price for a house nationally in quarter 1 2010 was EUR 204,830"

Not so different (+40k).

Are you being silly?

Want to take population density into this please?

Not so different? you have Dublin on one side of the equation, with its property price being balanced DOWN by an empty house in the midlands ghost estates

norrie rugger

fliball123 wrote: »

Why not do like for like as in compare Dublin with London???

Very far from like with like

London is a major Capital city, centre of one of the biggest (if not the biggest) financial districts in the world. Home of the one of the busiest airports, in the world. A population of 18million? Headquarters of Dozens of the largest companies etc etc

Dublin is a satellite suburb city, next to London.

Manchester is closer, as a major regional city. Even then, with its higher population, it is not like for like.

Comparison to both is actually favouring Dublin

OMD

norrie rugger wrote: »

Very far from like with like

London is a major Capital city, centre of one of the biggest (if not the biggest) financial districts in the world. Home of the one of the busiest airports, in the world. A population of 18million? Headquarters of Dozens of the largest companies etc etc

Dublin is a satellite suburb city, next to London.

Manchester is closer, as a major regional city. Even then, with its higher population, it is not like for like.

Comparison to both is actually favouring Dublin

Comparing Manchester to Dublin does not make sense either. You have to look at a load of factors.
Average price Dublin €240,000
Average price Manchester €170,482 (£141,696)
http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?county=greater_manchester&lastyear=1

Average rent Dublin €952 a month
http://www.daft.ie/news/2010/daft-rental-report-q1-2010.daft
Average Rent Manchester £520 a month (last year)
http://blog.rentindex.co.uk/2009/07/rents-in-manchester-fall-by-13.html

So house price Dublin 21 times yearly rent
House price Manchester 22.7 times rent.
So Manchester property overpriced compared to Dublin


Median Wage Dublin person 10-19 years employed €50,593
Median Wage Manchester person 10-19 years employed £32,251
http://www.payscale.com/research/IE/Country=Ireland/Salary/by_Years_Experience
http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/City=Manchester/Salary/by_Years_Experience

Average House Price Dublin 4.7 times median wage of median worker
Average House Price Manchester 4.4 times median wage
So Dublin property overpriced compared to Manchester.

fontanalis

20goto10 wrote: »

According to the radio yesterday and based on myhome stats, asking prices for 3 bedroom houses have stabilised. Something like an increase of 0.4% for a semi-d and 0.3% for a terrace. Doesn't mean much really but at the very least things are not as bad as they used to be.

Why are high property prices seen as signs of a good economy? The proerty market should follow the economy not vice versa.