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Is There Light At The End Of The Tunnel

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    #32
    kmick
    Registered Users Posts: 3,375 ✭✭✭kmick


    norrie rugger wrote: »
    Not so different? you have Dublin on one side of the equation, with its property price being balanced DOWN by an empty house in the midlands ghost estates

    I dont get your point.


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    #33
    danbohan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    beeno67 wrote: »
    Can you link these prices as they are totally at odds with the ESRI. The ESRI has Dublin property price at about €240,000. The national figure is about €200,000. You then compare the price for Manchester (one of the lowest priced areas in the UK) with Dublin the highest priced area in Ireland.

    Using similar flawed logic I could say the average price in greater London is £406,608 or €488,706. So hey look Dublin property is undervalued.[/QUOT

    so dublin is similar to london , get real


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    #34
    danbohan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    OMD wrote: »
    Comparing Manchester to Dublin does not make sense either. You have to look at a load of factors.
    Average price Dublin €240,000
    Average price Manchester €170,482 (£141,696)
    http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?county=greater_manchester&lastyear=1

    Average rent Dublin €952 a month
    http://www.daft.ie/news/2010/daft-rental-report-q1-2010.daft
    Average Rent Manchester £520 a month (last year)
    http://blog.rentindex.co.uk/2009/07/rents-in-manchester-fall-by-13.html

    So house price Dublin 21 times yearly rent
    House price Manchester 22.7 times rent.
    So Manchester property overpriced compared to Dublin


    Median Wage Dublin person 10-19 years employed €50,593
    Median Wage Manchester person 10-19 years employed £32,251
    http://www.payscale.com/research/IE/Country=Ireland/Salary/by_Years_Experience
    http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/City=Manchester/Salary/by_Years_Experience

    Average House Price Dublin 4.7 times median wage of median worker
    Average House Price Manchester 4.4 times median wage
    So Dublin property overpriced compared to Manchester.

    and you think we shall maintain the median wages ? or that level of rental , bottom line is we are still very overpriced for property , very overpriced for rentals and very overpaid , all of which will have to change if we are to keep borrowing to pay our bills .


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    #35
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    kmick wrote: »
    Manchester has a population of 4m so its equivalent to the whole popoulation of the republic and some so lets compare Manchester with the Republic.

    The UK has a very good system for tracking house prices and the average Manc house is £136,652 (€164,217)
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/bn.stm

    The republic has a very poor official system of tracking house prices (i.e. none) and therefore the esri seems a logical place to look.
    http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/
    "The average price for a house nationally in quarter 1 2010 was EUR 204,830"

    Not so different (+40k).

    Or indeed compare Ireland with the whole UK.
    Average price Ireland €204,830 (5 months ago. Less now)
    Average price UK €269,685 (£224,064 and rising)


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    #36
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    danbohan wrote: »
    and you think we shall maintain the median wages ? or that level of rental , bottom line is we are still very overpriced for property , very overpriced for rentals and very overpaid , all of which will have to change if we are to keep borrowing to pay our bills .

    My point is that it is ridiculous to compare Dublin with one of the poorer areas of England and say somehow that proves Dublin property is overvalued. Anyway I believe property prices are falling faster than wages or rent


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    #37
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    alot of people are missing the big elephant in the room

    in Ireland we track asking prices (DAFT index

    in UK they have a registry to track selling prices

    big difference


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    #38
    norrie rugger
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,656 ✭✭✭norrie rugger


    kmick wrote: »
    I dont get your point.

    You are trying to indicate that the urban setting of Manchester at 4 million is equivalent to the entire urban/rural mix of Ireland.


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    #39
    norrie rugger
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,656 ✭✭✭norrie rugger


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    alot of people are missing the big elephant in the room

    in Ireland we track asking prices (DAFT index

    in UK they have a registry to track selling prices

    big difference


    Very civilised of them. They actually manage their affairs


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    #40
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    alot of people are missing the big elephant in the room

    in Ireland we track asking prices (DAFT index

    in UK they have a registry to track selling prices

    big difference

    ESRI Index tracks estimated sales price based on mortgage information.


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    #41
    kmick
    Registered Users Posts: 3,375 ✭✭✭kmick


    norrie rugger wrote: »
    You are trying to indicate that the urban setting of Manchester at 4 million is equivalent to the entire urban/rural mix of Ireland.

    These are all average numbers and its impossible to factor that in. There are super urban and super rural areas of Manchester as well. The reason its commonly chosen is that it has roughly the same population.


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    #42
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    OMD wrote: »
    ESRI Index tracks estimated sales price based on mortgage information.

    This index is not monthly anymore as they dont have enough mortgage data

    Not that this proxy way is such a great measurement as actually measuring the selling prices, I for example bought+build in cash

    Revenue have all the actual selling prices, if they wanted they could have released an anonymized dataset


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    #43
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    This index is not monthly anymore as they dont have enough mortgage data

    Not that this proxy way is such a great measurement as actually measuring the selling prices, I for example bought+build in cash

    Revenue have all the actual selling prices, if they wanted they could have released an anonymized dataset

    My point is the figures people are using are the ESRI figures not the DAFT one. So the figures are not asking prices.


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    #44
    norrie rugger
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,656 ✭✭✭norrie rugger


    kmick wrote: »
    These are all average numbers and its impossible to factor that in. There are super urban and super rural areas of Manchester as well. The reason its commonly chosen is that it has roughly the same population.

    Population density
    Ireland 63/km2
    Manchester 4,014/km2
    Greater Man 2,016 /km2


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    #45
    Blackjack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,611 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    20goto10 wrote: »
    In fact a slight increase. And my point is its a hell of a lot better than the constant 1% - 5% decreases that have been reported over the past 3 years.

    For who?
    Certainly not for those who haven't bought and hope to do so, nor is it any good for the competitiveness of our Economy to have vastly overpriced housing.


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    #46
    Treehouse72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Treehouse72


    OMD wrote: »
    Comparing Manchester to Dublin does not make sense either. You have to look at a load of factors.
    Average price Dublin €240,000
    Average price Manchester €170,482 (£141,696)
    http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?county=greater_manchester&lastyear=1

    Average rent Dublin €952 a month
    http://www.daft.ie/news/2010/daft-rental-report-q1-2010.daft
    Average Rent Manchester £520 a month (last year)
    http://blog.rentindex.co.uk/2009/07/rents-in-manchester-fall-by-13.html

    So house price Dublin 21 times yearly rent
    House price Manchester 22.7 times rent.
    So Manchester property overpriced compared to Dublin


    Median Wage Dublin person 10-19 years employed €50,593
    Median Wage Manchester person 10-19 years employed £32,251
    http://www.payscale.com/research/IE/Country=Ireland/Salary/by_Years_Experience
    http://www.payscale.com/research/UK/City=Manchester/Salary/by_Years_Experience

    Average House Price Dublin 4.7 times median wage of median worker
    Average House Price Manchester 4.4 times median wage
    So Dublin property overpriced compared to Manchester.


    Do you think that perhaps absolute numbers matter here at all?


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    #47
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    Treehouse72 wrote: »
    Do you think that perhaps absolute numbers matter here at all?

    No, not at all. We are talking about 2 very different cities , in 2 different countries, with 2 different economies and 2 different currencies. My entire point is that to compare them in terms of absolute figures makes no sense at all.


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    #48
    Treehouse72
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Treehouse72


    OMD wrote: »
    No, not at all. We are talking about 2 very different cities , in 2 different countries, with 2 different economies and 2 different currencies. My entire point is that to compare them in terms of absolute figures makes no sense at all.


    So Dublin salaries, house prices and rents are all 50% more expensive than Manchester, and there's nothing wrong with that "at all"? I see. And the way you talk about the differences between the two cities you'd think we were comparing Dublin with Delhi or Denver, not bloody Manchester.

    I wrote a long reply to this, but honestly couldn't be arsed posting it. So let's agree - Ireland is a magical, special place which justifies house prices, salaries and rents that are 50% higher than a larger city in a larger and more important economy just a few hundred miles away. I couldn't be bothered my arse debating the obvious insanity of this with people who are only too willing to follow Jim Jones into the jungle. Knock yourself out and enjoy the Kool-Aid.


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    #49
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    Treehouse72 wrote: »
    So Dublin salaries, house prices and rents are all 50% more expensive than Manchester, and there's nothing wrong with that "at all"? I see. And the way you talk about the differences between the two cities you'd think we were comparing Dublin with Delhi or Denver, not bloody Manchester.

    I wrote a long reply to this, but honestly couldn't be arsed posting it. So let's agree - Ireland is a magical, special place which justifies house prices, salaries and rents that are 50% higher than a larger city in a larger and more important economy just a few hundred miles away. I couldn't be bothered my arse debating the obvious insanity of this with people who are only too willing to follow Jim Jones into the jungle. Knock yourself out and enjoy the Kool-Aid.

    God Treehouse you seem to write a lot of long replies but don't post them. Perhaps you should think a little first.

    There is no reason to believe Dublin and Manchester prices are comparable. Anymore than say Dublin and the South of England which are more expensive than Ireland.

    Manchester is 4 times the size of Dublin, it is in one of the poorer regions of England, It is not a capital city, average incomes there are much lower than here, they have property taxes, they have a different tax system, they have a different currency. Why the hell do you think Dublin should be copmpared to Manchester but should not be compared to other more expensive areas of England.


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    #50
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    OMD wrote: »
    God Treehouse you seem to write a lot of long replies but don't post them. Perhaps you should think a little first.

    There is no reason to believe Dublin and Manchester prices are comparable. Anymore than say Dublin and the South of England which are more expensive than Ireland.

    Manchester is 4 times the size of Dublin, it is in one of the poorer regions of England, It is not a capital city, average incomes there are much lower than here, they have property taxes, they have a different tax system, they have a different currency. Why the hell do you think Dublin should be copmpared to Manchester but should not be compared to other more expensive areas of England.

    Totally aggree here its like comparing apples and tractors. There are no commaonalities between Manchesster and Dublin


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