Just the facts : Reasons to buy or to wait

Pittens

All figures on predicted job losses would be speculative at this stage. 40K net is a pretty small estimate in my view. Whats the number unemployed - 400k? a ten percent rise on that would take the percentile of unemployed to 15%. Thats hardly radical.

which captial projects are you referring to ? How many peopel do you think will be let go. Have you taken into account new capital projects ?

There are no capital projects coming online of the same magnitude as the present motorway builds ( which remains one of the best things about the Tiger though it came late).

EDIT:

will supply facts in this post later - although guesses of unemployment levels are speculative we can get the future loss of jobs due to the ending of the motorway projects at least.

mathie

which captial projects are you referring to ? How many peopel do you think will be let go. Have you taken into account new capital projects ?

Key road and rail projects axed as money runs out
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/key-road-and-rail-projects-axed-as-money-runs-out-2247169.html

D3PO

Pittens wrote: »

All figures on predicted job losses would be speculative at this stage. 40K net is a pretty small estimate in my view. Whats the number unemployed - 400k? a ten percent rise on that would take the percentile of unemployed to 15%. Thats hardly radical.

which captial projects are you referring to ? How many peopel do you think will be let go. Have you taken into account new capital projects ?

Motorways. everybody working on those projects. There are none.

try closer to 450k

444,900 infact (dont have last weks figures to hand)

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

im not saying its not possible, im just saying somebody coming on and throwing out another 40k unemployed when every prediction says its wrong has no place in this thread.

as the poster said it was a "guess" a guess without any basis or logic just a random figure. if its an educated guess fine but it was a random number

Cookie_Monster

D3PO wrote: »

which captial projects are you referring to ? How many peopel do you think will be let go. Have you taken into account new capital projects ?

From a C&T thread.

Also AIB: 3k layoffs
Eircom 2K
BOI: ?1-2k?

Neworder79 wrote: »

The side article lists the exact projects as:

Road Projects Suspended
N2 Ashbourne - Ardee
N4 Sligo Bypass
N5 Scramogue - Ballaghaderreen
N6 Galway Outer Bypass
M7 Naas - Newbridge
N13 Stranolar - Derry
N14 Letterkenny - Lifford
N15 Lifford - Ballybofey
N16 Sligo - Glencar
N16 Glenfarne - Glencar
N22 Macroom - Ballincollig
N23 Castleisland - Farranfore
N24 Mooncoin Bypass
N24 Carrick-on-suir Bypass
N24 Clonmel
N24 Clonmel - Cahir
N24 Cahir - Bansha
N25 New Ross - Wexford
N25 Middelton - Youghal
N28 Ringaskiddy - Cork
N53 Ballynacarry Bridge
N54 Monaghan Town Link
N56 Inver - killybegs
N56 Letterkenny Relief Road
N59 Ballina Relief Road
N59 Crossmolina - Ballina
N59 Westport Relief Road (South)
N60 Castlebar - Claremorris
N61 Roscommon Town Bypass
N61 Boyle Bypass
N62 Roscrea Bypass
N71 Bandon Inishannon
N71 Kenmare Bypass
N72 Lismore - Cappoquin
N76 Tennypark - Brownsbarn
N77 Ballynaslee
N83 Ballyhaunis distributor road
N84 Ballinrobe Bypass
N87 Belturbet - Ballyconnell
M50 Eastern Bypass

Not Going Ahead or Vunerable
Metro West
Luas CherryWood - Bray
Luas Stephens Green - Liffy junction
Luas Lucan -Trinity
WRC Phase 2/3
Second Runway Dublin Airport
Regional Airport Investment
N2 may go ahead as in "Ministers backyard"

Safe
Atlantic Corridore (no breakdown of projects)
Metro North
DART Underground

Of interest: almost all listed roads are in South and West, but many are secondary projects. List may be as significant for the primary projects that aren't mentioned.
Atlantic Corridor "safe" statement is very vague given size, especially as some of the projects listed suspended are part of it.
WRC not going ahead conflicts with what the Minister said last week about delays in Metro creating space in the budget for Navan and WRC2.

Seems to be a lot of confusion about all projects at the moment, it would be good if the Minister came out with a more definitive statement on the state of all NDP/T21 projects.

OMD

Pittens wrote: »

. Whats the number unemployed - 400k? [.

Approx 280,000. A fact most people ignore and use your figure of 400k
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm

Cookie_Monster

jetski wrote: »

So houses / appartments should be sold for less than it cost to build them?

the cost to build them included huge profit margin at every stage of development and massively overinflated costs and were just as mad as the selling prices. Would you rather make a loss of 100k on selling a house or never sell it and effectively lose 350k as a builder?

look at it seriously for a second., How can a house that cost 42,000 IRL in 1982-3 be worth 850k in 2007 and 650k now? It can't, its just insane.

snubbleste

OMD wrote: »

Approx 280,000. A fact most people ignore and use your figure of 400k
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm

How is that?

Live Register says 452,882 people (incl. part-time, seasonal, casual workers)
According to QNHS Jan-Mar 2010, Labour force= 2,132,700 Employed= 1,857,600 Unemployed= 275,000

OMD

snubbleste wrote: »

How is that?

According to QNHS Jan-Mar 2010, Labour force= 2,132,700 Employed= 1,857,600 Unemployed= 275,000

Like you said.

quozl

IIRC the live register includes people who are on reduced hours, such as working 2 or 3 day weeks. The other also does NOT include the unemployed who are on training schemes or gone back to education iirc.

I don't think we can just ignore them, but I agree that it's not the same as being completely unemployed.

Can someone give the exact differences between the two? I can't remember them, but I do remember that there are flaws in taking both numbers at face value.

niallo27

How many people are still signing on and still doing odd jobs for cash in hand, great for people who want stuff done as its cheap, but what percentage of people are on the live register are actually living comfortably, i'd love to know

Pittens

We are trading semantics here. The difference between the live register and the unemployment rate is a valid one - but we should stick with one statistic.

The sum total of all the jobs lost by the banks, the end of the major captial infrastructure spend etc. will easily lead to about 40K more jobs lost - gross. The effects on the live register depends on whether export growth in multinationals can soak up some jobs.

in any case I think the increase in the rate of unemplyment will steady for a while. We need to see what happens when interest rates increase.

Treehouse72

Completely correct Pittens. The number that matters is the number of adults that should be economically productive, but are not. It doesn't matter what its name is or how it's sliced and diced. Of course, allowance must be made for those legitimately in training or otherwise unfit to work, and the fact there will always be people who just don't work (even during periods of "full employment"). But we should all know what we're talking about.

Whatever. The number is as close to 500,000 as not to matter. Hell, call it 400,000 if you like. Either one is still a mind-numbing number, especially when you consider this: where the hell are these people going to get jobs? I would especially like the cheerleaders of the "out of recession/GDP is up" faction to tell us what jobs that's going to create. At the moment MNC's employ c.100,000...GDP rising might add a few more, but it will not even be 10% of the unemployed. Nowhere near in fact. MNC employment would need to rise 50% to take 10% of people off the dole. That is not gonna happen.

What else? Construction? Clearly not. Something off the back of a consumer pick-up (something else the cheerleaders are cheering)? Er, no, because those are non wealth-creating jobs and require money to be made elsewhere in the economy to sustain. Agri? Meh. Tourism? With all those ghost estates littering our beautiful country and our high prices (50% higer than Manchester don't you know!)...no. So...where?

ricman

Theres a lot of people on welfare working 2 days a week. i presume recovery will come from being a more competitive country,lower costs ,the fall in the euro helps exports.The high price of housing pushed wages up ,hopefully lower house prices will help the economy recover in the long run.

Idbatterim

you would think tourism could be one area, where changes could be make quickish. The goverment should talk to the airlines, temporarily scrap the exorbitant taxes. Maybe even pay airlines a fee to get passengers into the country. There was a report in the indo the other day, comparing prices of hotels, car rental, food, drink etc, between ireland and other countries. We are cheap for accomodation and car hire. What really makes us expensive here is the cost of eating and drinking out. Costs in this area should be looked at and tackled. We cant afford to price ourselves out of the market, everyone loses out then!

Idbatterim

Also the talk of being out of recession makes me laugh, billions in savings are going to have to be found in this budget, and the next and the next! Its a pity the money has to come from new taxes, there is so much wastefull expenditure that could be targeted first.

astrofool

We'd need to drop the min wage to reduce the cost of eating out.

mathie

Budget feficit up from 11.5% to 19.75% of economic output

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0714/economy.html

Mr Cowen said he was not worried about the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report published today that predicted the Government’s budget deficit in 2010 to run to almost 20 per cent - the largest in the 27-member EU.

A Taoiseach who is not worried that we've the largest buget deficit in Europe.
Perhaps that should worry us.

hawkwing20101

mathie wrote: »

Budget feficit up from 11.5% to 19.75% of economic output

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0714/economy.html



A Taoiseach who is not worried that we've the largest buget deficit in Europe.
Perhaps that should worry us.

This is expected to fall to 10.25 per cent of GDP in 2011 according to the same report.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020136.shtml