Fidel Castro returns to TV with dire warning of nuclear conflict

Run_to_da_hills

Its not often that this man comes out of the woodwork but it must be important if he has to come out with this one. It is almost 5 years since his last public appearance and even back then he looked like a living corpse.

In a nutshell Castro is warning the West (Israel and the US) not to under estimate the power of Iran and it allies and the subsequent backlash of an attack from India and Pakistan.

He also emphasized that India, Pakistan and Israel are the three nuclear powers who have refused to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Should we listen to what Castro is saying or should we believe all we hear from the west?



On a separate but relevant note, how well prepared is Ireland in the case of an nuclear outbreak?

How is our national supply of potassium Iodate?, I believe it was last reviewed and distributed back in 2002. This of course would not account for new household members, immigrants, lost supplies etc.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/13/fidel-castro-on-cuban-tv-middle-east-iran-us

bernardo mac

What the old man says should be heeded.The political scenario in the Middle East alone has the ingredients and headstrong volatile players to create a very real and final horror drama.

Clawdeeus

He also accused the US of the attack on the South Korean navy ship, so really he is a bit of a consiracy theory nut. Seems to be alot of those around today.

Bit of a stretch to say the middle east is on the brink of nuclear war, or even serious conflict with Iran. Its been simmering for awhile definitly, however I think surgical strikes from Israel is what we will see ultimalty (I think it was in Yemen they did the same) not anything like a nuclear strike.

I also wouldnt overstate Iran's military capability, militarily they would almost certainly be crushed within weeks by the US. It is the enormously destabilising consequences for the region that should make this a last resort.

twinytwo

Clawdeeus wrote: »

He also accused the US of the attack on the South Korean navy ship, so really he is a bit of a consiracy theory nut. Seems to be alot of those around today.

Bit of a stretch to say the middle east is on the brink of nuclear war, or even serious conflict with Iran. Its been simmering for awhile definitly, however I think surgical strikes from Israel is what we will see ultimalty (I think it was in Yemen they did the same) not anything like a nuclear strike.

I also wouldnt overstate Iran's military capability, militarily they would almost certainly be crushed within weeks by the US. It is the enormously destabilising consequences for the region that should make this a last resort.

While we cannot overstate iran's military capability it would be wise not also to overstate americas.. while yes they are a superpower to have to fight iran and most certainly their alias along with afghan and iraq would be too much even for them.

PeterIanStaker

Run_to_da_hills wrote: »

On a separate but relevant note, how well prepared is Ireland in the case of an nuclear outbreak

If any govt dept are in any way connected with preparing for nuclear holocaust, 'we're boned' as Bender from Futurama would say.

DylanJM

while yes they are a superpower to have to fight iran and most certainly their alias along with afghan and iraq would be too much even for them.

Yes, but it's not as if the US would be on their own. Anything that is in the best interests of the USA is in the best interests of allies, generally speaking anyway.

That said,it would be a huge task to undertake.

donaghs

Castro proved himself to be a bit of a nuclear nut when he admitted in the last decade that he was willing to go into a all-out nuclear war in the Cuban Missile Crisis, rather than back-down and have the Russian Missiles removed from Cuba.

He was prepared to prepared to go to the brink of nuclear war and beyond to prove his point. The world was only saved when Khrushchev saw the dangers of his nuclear gamble and slowly began the negotiation process. Castro never entirely forgave Khrushchev this.

Clawdeeus

twinytwo wrote: »

While we cannot overstate iran's military capability it would be wise not also to overstate americas.. while yes they are a superpower to have to fight iran and most certainly their alias along with afghan and iraq would be too much even for them.

There is something in that, but to crush the military / nuclear capability takes a miniscule amount of time, men and rescources compared to nation building. I agree the US could not occupy, and stabalise Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq, however the destruction of nuclear capability and the Iranian establishment is a completly different matter.

Just as a for instance, the destruction of the Iraqi conventional military capability and the goverment took place just a month into the invasion. In Afghanistan, the Taliban were almost completly defeated by other Afghan groups trained and supplied by the US, launched just after 9 11 and ending with the invasion of ground troops not long after.

I do agree that an Iraq/ Afghanistan style project would not work, possibly even if the US was not already tied up in other regions.

ynotdu

I agree with Clawdeeus that it would be a surgical strike.and would destabalise the region even further.
I would be very surprised if Israel and the US do not have precise intelligence on how close Iran is to reaching weapons grade Plutonium.
I would also be very surprised if Netenyahu has not been for a long time chomping at the bit to launch these strikes with possibly only the US restraining him.
I have no doubt that if Iran continues with development of nucleur weapons that Israel/Netenyahu will strike,not if but when.I do not believe even the US could prevent Israel from taking this action.

There is also the possibility that in fact Iran already has developed nucleur capability and this is why Israel has not acted.

assuming though that Iran has not yet got the capability,other than cause trouble in response there is very little they can do Militairily.
I don't believe the US need be drawn into direct military action in this event anyway.

Iran did not exactly prove to be a formidable force in the Iran/Iraq war.
Many Iranians despise the Ayatollahs and hanker for the days of the Shah.This is why i believe Iran has many 'enemies within' who are happily keeping the west informed of what is going on.

Of course there is an arguement to be made that it is hypochritical of some Nations claiming Nucleur Weapons are safe in their hands,but not in others..............

twinytwo

ynotdu wrote: »

I agree with Clawdeeus that it would be a surgical strike.and would destabalise the region even further.
I would be very surprised if Israel and the US do not have precise intelligence on how close Iran is to reaching weapons grade Plutonium.
I would also be very surprised if Netenyahu has not been for a long time chomping at the bit to launch these strikes with possibly only the US restraining him.
I have no doubt that if Iran continues with development of nucleur weapons that Israel/Netenyahu will strike,not if but when.I do not believe even the US could prevent Israel from taking this action.

There is also the possibility that in fact Iran already has developed nucleur capability and this is why Israel has not acted.

assuming though that Iran has not yet got the capability,other than cause trouble in response there is very little they can do Militairily.
I don't believe the US need be drawn into direct military action in this event anyway.

Iran did not exactly prove to be a formidable force in the Iran/Iraq war.
Many Iranians despise the Ayatollahs and hanker for the days of the Shah.This is why i believe Iran has many 'enemies within' who are happily keeping the west informed of what is going on.

Of course there is an arguement to be made that it is hypochritical of some Nations claiming Nucleur Weapons are safe in their hands,but not in others..............

But that may also be the final straw?.. an Israeli strike on the Iran for whatever reason could bring the middle east into all out war?

ynotdu

twinytwo wrote: »

But that may also be the final straw?.. an Israeli strike on the Iran for whatever reason could bring the middle east into all out war?

My problem is i believe that Netenyahu is even less capable of rational thought than Castro is aged 84.
He is a hate filled man who even snubbed VP Joe Biden during Bidens recent visit.{biting the hand that feeds him as many see it}
He would just launch the strikes and be damned. IMO

BlaasForRafa

ynotdu wrote: »

My problem is i believe that Netenyahu is even less capable of rational thought than Castro is aged 84.
He is a hate filled man who even snubbed VP Joe Biden during Bidens recent visit.{biting the hand that feeds him as many see it}
He would just launch the strikes and be damned. IMO

I don't like Netanyahu at all but I think you have an incorrect perception of him. He isn't some raving maniac as you portray, he's fairly calculating and would realise what an operation against Iran would entail.

ynotdu

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

I don't like Netanyahu at all but I think you have an incorrect perception of him. He isn't some raving maniac as you portray, he's fairly calculating and would realise what an operation against Iran would entail.

Yes he's calculating.devious,has shown great domestic political skill in recovering from his past sexual scandals to achieve what seemed impossible and manage to become PM for a second time in 2009.

but i still believe his bottom line is He won't allow Iran develop nuclear weapons without striking.

(again with the provisor that assumes Iran has not already got some and he knows it)

Think we will have to agree to differ on this one!:)