Perception of RTE forecasts?

rd_milltown

Hi,

Moved over here from the UK and wondered what the perception of the RTE forecasts was over here.

I am impressed by them - nothing flashy (like the BBC), well-presented and just get to the point. Also like the wording of the forecasts on the website that are very well-written and concise.

Is there a general perception here that they're good/bad?

Cheers
Rich

DOCARCH

I think they are as good they can be with the somewhat limited resources they have.

I know others may or will criticise them but you have to bear in mind that it's pretty tricky to make an accurate forecast for this part of the world! Other met services have it far easier.

Su Campu

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think they are as good they can be with the somewhat limited resources they have.

I know others may or will criticise them but you have to bear in mind that it's pretty tricky to make an accurate forecast for this part of the world! Other met services have it far easier.

Yes, with most of our weather coming from the Atlantic, it's very difficult for a forecaster to make an accurate forecast when he/she has a lack of proper observations upstream (ie. over the Atlantic). Other countries (even the UK) do have this luxury, and while model data is a help, model output is only as good as the data that feeds into it. With all that in mind I think Met Eireann do an outstanding job.

I do have a problem though with their wording "dry today, with some showers". Either its dry or it's not. A better wording would be just "showers", and qualify it with either isolated, occasional or frequent. Otherwise it's a contradiction.

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

"dry today, with some showers"

I'm sure they usually use the word 'mainly' before that?

Mothman

I have issues with some wording..
I get confused by "scattered showers"
Here's today's outlook. How many times is scattered showers mentioned? With regard to showers what does "scattered" mean and "more scattered" and when scattered is not mentioned.

The outlook is for unsettled weather with scattered showers or longer spells of rain for most of this week. Sunday night will continue wet with heavy rain in the southwest, west and north for a time but winds will ease. On Monday there will be scattered showers or prolonged spells of rain, heaviest across the north with thunder likely. The top temperatures will be 17 to 21 degrees in fresh southerly winds. Tuesday will bring further scattered showers which will turn into widespread, prolonged and heavy rain in the afternoon with again the risk of thunder. The winds will be light to moderate cyclonic and top temperatures 16 to 19 degrees. Tuesday night will continue with scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers, the showers only gradually dying out. There will be further scattered showers on Wednesday, which will turn heavy and possibly thundery later in the day. The winds will be moderate west to southwesterly and top temperature 15 to 18 degrees. Thursday scattered showers, heavy and thundery at times. The winds will be fresh northwesterly.

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

I have issues with some wording..
I get confused by "scattered showers"

Yes, it is a confusing term but I can see the logic behind it. Yesterday was a perfect example of this. There was some small showers around but they did not hit a lot of places. Even here I got caught in a shower down town yesterday afternoon yet back home, no more than 0.5 miles away not a drop fell.

When you see the met forecasting showers to become more 'widespread' or 'widespread showers today' you know your in business!

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

When you see the met forecasting showers to become more 'widespread' or 'widespread showers today' you know your in business!

Yes this doesn't sit well with my brain
My brain thinks widespread means more distance between each shower which is I think what they mean by more scattered.

I've always struggled with this.

Back to more the point of the OP, I prefer forecasts when the possibilities are mentioned. The forecast is usually this will happen when in reality this is what is most likely to happen but they may occur. If this approach was taken they'd be rarely wrong but would take more time and I suppose what most people want (ie those not reading weather forums) is a forecast of what will happen.

Su Campu

In aviation forecasts, the terms used are Isolated, Occasional and Frequent when referring to convection (Cb and thunderstorms). These are more temporal rather than spatial, whereas "widespread" I would take to mean "over most of the country"

DOCARCH

Mothman wrote: »

I prefer forecasts when the possibilities are mentioned. The forecast is usually this will happen when in reality this is what is most likely to happen but they may occur. If this approach was taken they'd be rarely wrong but would take more time and I suppose what most people want (ie those not reading weather forums) is a forecast of what will happen.

MM, I follow and understand your point - we'd all love that - but I just think you are expecting too much! If you were a forecaster/met service in Spain or somewhere in Africa, for example, I think you would have a far easier job than working in Ireland as there is more certainty to the weather in any one day.

As far as I am aware, they have not as yet started using crystal balls in Met E? Your statement 'forecast of what will happen' is actually somewhat of an oxymoran?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

In aviation forecasts, the terms used are Isolated, Occasional and Frequent when referring to convection (Cb and thunderstorms). These are more temporal rather than spatial, whereas "widespread" I would take to mean "over most of the country"

Not especially. Showers can be widespread over a particular area. A common winter forecast for example would be 'showers becoming widespred over the west and north later'. When I see a forecast like that I know that the chances of grabbing or getting caught out in downpour increase significantly. A forecast of 'scattered showers' I would take to mean some showers floating about but with an increased risk of missing them.

I know little about aviation or how aviation forecasts work. Are aviation forecasts for the actual airport or flying conditions close to the airport, i.e, within a specified radius?

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not especially. Showers can be widespread over a particular area. A common winter forecast for example would be 'showers becoming widespred over the west and north later'. When I see a forecast like that I know that the chances of grabbing or getting caught out in downpour increase significantly. A forecast of 'scattered showers' I would take to mean some showers floating about but with an increased risk of missing them.

I know little about aviation or how aviation forecasts work. Are aviation forecasts for the actual airport or flying conditions close to the airport, i.e, within a specified radius?

Those quantifiers don't apply to the TAF (Terminal Area Forecast - 5 nautical miles radius around an airport) but to things like SigWx (Significant Weather) charts, SIGMETs, etc, which deal with larger areas.

Eg. Sigmet for Bremen FIR
WSDL31 EDZH 170849
EDWW SIGMET 04 VALID 170900/171100 EDZH-
EDWW BREMEN FIR FRQ TS OBS E-PART TOPS FL370-400 MOV E NC (FReQuent ThunderStorms OBServed...)

or this...

ciaran67

rd_milltown wrote: »

nothing flashy (like the BBC)

You think the Beebs is flashy?

I like the RTE's presenters, uum'ing and arr'ing during their report. Shows they're are meteorologists rather than presenters. Unlike UTV/ITV where they are just pretty faces.

WolfeIRE

Su Campu wrote: »

I do have a problem though with their wording "dry today, with some showers". Either its dry or it's not. A better wording would be just "showers", and qualify it with either isolated, occasional or frequent. Otherwise it's a contradiction.

you make a point, not a bad point Su

I pay more attention to ME's website. Now as for TV3....:mad: The sight of someone even less meteorlogicallyqualified than me reading the weather puts me off.

By the way, where do TV3 get their weather.

DOCARCH

WolfeIRE wrote: »

By the way, where do TV3 get their weather.

If somebody told me they get their information from ITV, it would not surprise me (rather than pay Met E)!

Speak Now

Anyone hear the guy on radio 1 at 7.55 this morning?

I know harrington had a bad Open but i didnt expect him to take up weather forecasting

Speak Now

ciaran67 wrote: »

You think the Beebs is flashy?

I like the RTE's presenters, uum'ing and arr'ing during their report. Shows they're are meteorologists rather than presenters. Unlike UTV/ITV where they are just pretty faces.

Rte have a mix of meteorologists and presenters don't they?

BEASTERLY

Well I think TV3 have fantastic forecasts!;)

mike65

The BBC/Met graphics are an abomination.

Helium

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well I think TV3 have fantastic forecasts!;)

Well if there's ever a queue to give King a kick in the proverbials, let me be the first in line.

RTE weather as mentioned top notch with real meteoroligists as mentioned previously that make you feel more confident than some gobsh!te wishing paddy a happy burthday down the country somewhere.

Discodog

I don't look at forecasts as a pastime. I rely on them for my business. I no longer bother with RTE/ME forecasts. They are general to the point of being useless. I think that the graphics used by the BBC & Sky are way better than RTE. I too spent time in the UK & RTE graphics are like the BBC were about 20 years ago.

I need to have reasonably accurate timings for the arrival or departure of rain in my area. At least the graphics on Sky & the BBC give me a good idea of timings. RTE will only talk in terms of morning, afternoon & evening.

For example today (Tue) yr.no were spot on. On Monday night the yr forecast was very different to ME for Galway. yr were predicting pretty much a dry day whilst ME, in their late night forecast were showing heavy showers from midday.

The ME 3 hour was ok till midday & then it showed non existent rain. I am amazed that they cannot even produce a map where you can clearly see the outline of Ireland over the graphics on the 3 hour.

The only aspect of ME that I use constantly (ok several times a day) is Shannon radar which would be much better if it had a toggle mode for the animation. I appreciate that I am posting against the tide but my opinion has been formed over many years.

ciaran67

Helium wrote: »

Well if there's ever a queue to give King a kick in the proverbials, let me be the first in line.

RTE weather as mentioned top notch with real meteoroligists as mentioned previously that make you feel more confident than some gobsh!te wishing paddy a happy burthday down the country somewhere.

or, Mrs O'Reilly from Crossmolina who's 124 today.

ciaran67

mike65 wrote: »

The BBC/Met graphics are an abomination.

Bit strong...

Discodog

I don't care who reads the forecast. Why pay a ME forecaster to read a piece of paper especially when RTE have decided that we don't need a morning forecast but can wait till lunchtime when half the day is gone ?.

The website forecasts are pointless. Today's forecast for Connacht "Showery, some heavy and thundery downpours". That's it !. Billy the Bog Man could have given more detail from his bit of seaweed.

nacho libre

There is a morning forecast albeit on the radio.

Su Campu

Discodog wrote: »

I don't care who reads the forecast. Why pay a ME forecaster to read a piece of paper especially when RTE have decided that we don't need a morning forecast but can wait till lunchtime when half the day is gone ?.

The website forecasts are pointless. Today's forecast for Connacht "Showery, some heavy and thundery downpours". That's it !. Billy the Bog Man could have given more detail from his bit of seaweed.

What site are you looking at? Here's what they actually have for Connacht...I reckon that's pretty comprehensive.

Today

Overcast this evening with widespread continuous heavy rain as well as a risk of thunder. Moderate to fresh and gusty northerly winds generally, but continuing strong and gusty near northern and western coasts.


Tonight

A clearance to generally dry weather will extend from the west to all parts overnight. Continuing windy. Lowest temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees.



Grass Pollen Count

Moderate
More Information
Solar UV Index

High in sunshine.
UV Index

Tomorrow

Dry tomorrow with prolonged spells of sunshine. Moderate to fresh north to northwest winds easing through the day. Highest temperatures of 15 to 18 degrees.

Discodog

My quote is exactly their wording before the evening update. If someone is typing this why can't they spend another 30 sec & provide more info. For example when will the rain clear ?. Overnight means between 10pm & 6 am so eight hours. So if someone is planning a night out in Galway they have no idea if they will be able to walk home or need a cab. The problem is made worse because Galway sits on the boundary of two forecasts.

The forecasts are for Joe Public & they expect people to pay for detailed forecasts.

fryup

they (rte) said today would be a terrible day, rain all day

well it turned out alright down here in east-clare

Discodog

A quick glance at Sky & Yr.no shows the rain clearing Galway around 1 am. It is just wrong that the Norwegians & Murdoch can give a more detailed forecast than ME. Maybe we could get rid of ME, save a fortune & get more info. Perhaps they are afraid of giving timings in case they are wrong ?.

nacho libre

Discodog wrote: »

Perhaps they are afraid of giving timings in case they are wrong ?.

yr.no have got it wrong before. are they likely to be under the same scrutiny among the irish public when they get it wrong?. anyway they have this evening's rain clearing here at around 12 am. so let's see...

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

yr.no have got it wrong before.

Indeed they have, as they will again. yr.no is one of the highest quality weather data sites but like forecast they will be frequently wrong. A forecast does not equate to a definate. The animated hourly rainfall forecast on yr.no is great but it is not to be taken as gospel. Hi res models outputs only serve as a guide, which is why there will always be a need for meteorologists who know the local factors and conditions they are forecasting for better than a brainless supercomputer!

octo

Discodog wrote: »

The forecasts are for Joe Public & they expect people to pay for detailed forecasts.

Seriously, you should write to them, or minister John Gormley, and complain. I suspect many people in ME share your opinion.