Perception of RTE forecasts?

LordSutch

I find the RTE forecasts pretty good if a little understated, the BBC might hit the nail on the head by saying "its going to be a 'scorcher' tomorrow, so slap on the suncream factor fifty", the same RTE forecaster might say "there might be some sunny spells tomorrow, with a few clouds in places" > probably true, but (very understated). I also like the way the BBC/ITV cover the whole of the British Isles, whereas RTE only cover Ireland, and Finally, I cant stand the late night presenter on RTE who starts the forecast by saying "And a very good night to you"
Shouldn't he say that as he's closing!

All in all, considering their limited resources, I think RTE do a good job.

Discodog

I do not expect any forecast to be always accurate. I admire forecast organisations that are prepared to give more detail & therefore incur more risk of being wrong. I am eagerly awaiting yr's hourly shower/squall prediction. They are bound to get it wrong sometimes but at least they are trying.

I do not think that providing more detail has anything to do with resources. ME have the information & it really does only take seconds to type more info onto a webpage. I have just watched Sky's forecast. It was shorter than a typical ME forecast, covered the UK & Ireland, & told me everything that I needed to know.

ME should provide a detailed version of the BBC website's simple UK predictive http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10094

As someone who depends on forecasts ME should be my first port of call not my last.

WolfeIRE

Camelot wrote: »

I also like the way the BBC/ITV cover the whole of the British Isles, whereas RTE only cover Ireland

The BBC weather forecaster stands in front of the 'Republic Of Ireland' on the weather map which is extremely annoying.

monkeypants

I find they're reasonably good at predicting the weather for tomorrow, but their longer projections can't be relied upon. For example, I won't believe the forecast made last night for Saturday, I'll see what they say on Friday evening. Other that that, they're fine. Always fun to see what mad rubber outfit Jean Byrne will come out it.

Su Campu

Discodog wrote: »

I do not expect any forecast to be always accurate. I admire forecast organisations that are prepared to give more detail & therefore incur more risk of being wrong. I am eagerly awaiting yr's hourly shower/squall prediction. They are bound to get it wrong sometimes but at least they are trying.

Sorry, but please tell me you don't think yr.no forecasts are human-generated? They're uncontrolled computer model output, just like the likes of Accuweather.com, Weatheronline.co.uk, etc. and therefore will on average be more inaccurate than a human forecast. A ME forecaster will go on the output of not just one but 4 models, and will know when to trust them and when not to, based on local peculiarities, climatological history, experience, etc. So just because yr.no give nice colourful hourly graphics does not imply that they're automatically accurate, on average a human forecast will always have the highest success rate. I mean, do you think yr.no is more accurate than MT Cranium?

Plowman

This post has been deleted.

legendal

IMHO, RTÉ/MÉ's forecasts are by far the best. Whenever I watch it I can remember what the weather will be like for each day, something that doesn't happen with other forecasts.

For me, the reason it works is because they go through all the European/Atlantic charts first which puts things into context. That front bringing rain on Thursday? I can see where it will be on Tuesday and understand why it's going to rain on Thursday. This makes the forecast far easier to understand and remember.

TV3's graphics are cluttered. There's no need to have placenames on the screen - I know where I live. RTÉ/MÉ have it spot on with the faint county boundaries. The 3D pan across the country serves no purpose other than to namecheck smaller towns.

The BBC are also too concerned with graphics. It's a little too simplistic as well I think, I don't know if the headline at the start does the forecast justice in a part of the world where the weather can sometimes vary significantly in locations 30 or 40 miles apart.

I find the forecast Sky News vague and inaccurate. They often understate the temperatures here - days where it's 19C or 20C in Dublin get forecast six hours earlier as 16C or 17C. Passing references are made to Ireland (AKA "the west") and with so much land to cover nothing gets covered in-depth over the 90 seconds or so - now shorter as the weather presenters have been scrapped.

The only fault I can find with RTÉ/MÉ's is that where they're a little unsure about something that is significant, they should state it clearly. That case Donegal CoCo made a few years ago where MÉ forecasted snow which never happened was explained by saying that had it been a degree or two colder, the precipitation would have been snow. Where the margin of error is that thin, MÉ should give their best forecast, then explain the margin of error.

Other than that, RTÉ/MÉ ftw.

Discodog

Su Campu wrote: »

Sorry, but please tell me you don't think yr.no forecasts are human-generated? They're uncontrolled computer model output, just like the likes of Accuweather.com, Weatheronline.co.uk, etc. and therefore will on average be more inaccurate than a human forecast. A ME forecaster will go on the output of not just one but 4 models, and will know when to trust them and when not to, based on local peculiarities, climatological history, experience, etc. So just because yr.no give nice colourful hourly graphics does not imply that they're automatically accurate, on average a human forecast will always have the highest success rate. I mean, do you think yr.no is more accurate than MT Cranium?

It is not always a question of accuracy because the ME forecasts & MT's (not his fault) are not very regional. There are significant regional variations here but ME ignore them. What is the point in ME being more accurate if they don't give detailed enough information to prove it. If you were out in Galway last night ME said it would stop raining overnight. Sky & yr gave a time of about 1am which I think may of been about right.

It doesn't worry me who or what produces a forecast. All I am basically concerned with is when will it rain & how much. ME's 3 hour, impossible to read mini chart, was very inaccurate during Tues & Weds - I know because I was working outdoors & checking it every couple of hours on my mobi.

If the weather is unsettled I will view yr, metcheck, sky, bbc web & yes MT in the late evening & try to get a balanced view so that I can decide what work I can carry out. I will also check the radar during the day. I will rarely check the ME TV forecast because I tend not to be watching RTE. The Sky & BBC forecasts have the advantage of instant red button playback.

The only ME forecast that I will try to watch will be the Sunday farming forecast in order to try & judge the week ahead. The only ME tools that is any real use is the radar which could be so much better with toggle animation & a predictive element built in. In other words if a big shower is on it's way what track will it take. At present one has to extrapolate from the radar animation - it would be nice if the software could do this.

I am not expecting yr's one hour shower watch to be faultless but it will be interesting to see how accurate it really is - if I can work out how to get it !. I am not knocking ME for the sake of it. I need to have a good forecast & I have stopped bothering with ME.

nacho libre

legendal wrote: »

The only fault I can find with RTÉ/MÉ's is that where they're a little unsure about something that is significant, they should state it clearly. That case Donegal CoCo made a few years ago where MÉ forecasted snow which never happened was explained by saying that had it been a degree or two colder, the precipitation would have been snow. Where the margin of error is that thin, MÉ should give their best forecast, then explain the margin of error.

Other than that, RTÉ/MÉ ftw.

The eagle did this last winter, he thought we were in for a significant snow event, around the middle of December, when it didn't happen he explained that had temperatures been half a degree colder it would have been snow.
he also said on another occasion, these situations(he thought the chances of snow instead of rain was unlikely) have a nasty habit of kicking weather forecasters in the teeth .

lord lucan

nacho libre wrote: »

The eagle did this last winter, he thought we were in for a significant snow event, around the middle of December, when it didn't happen he explained that had temperatures been half a degree colder it would have been snow.
he also said on another occasion, these situations(he thought the chances of snow instead of rain was unlikely) have a nasty habit of kicking weather forecasters in the teeth .

I think this episode from 1987 has every forecaster wary of being caught out on what they say!

Oscar Bravo

Thanks for that video,poor Michael Fish has never lived that down.i remember seeing light aircraft flipped over.BTW-Great David Bowie song in the video!!

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The BBC weather forecaster stands in front of the 'Republic Of Ireland' on the weather map which is extremely annoying.

Well what do you expect its a different country, do you see the irish ones doing forecasts for us, meaning uk before yous all take a fit!

Su Campu

lord lucan wrote: »

I think this episode from 1987 has every forecaster wary of being caught out on what they say!

I wish people would stop taking him out of context. The hurricane was to do with the Caribbean, not UK. He did say just after that to "batten down the hatches" as there was a storm coming, but most of the strongest winds would be in Biscay. That was the error, not that he thought there wasn't anything onthe way.

The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry, scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting, and changes were made in the training of forecasters. In addition, reforms in the way the Met Office reports warnings of severe weather were implemented, leading to substantially more warnings being issued in the future. Further deployment of improved tracking devices and improvements in the computer model simulations were supported by the purchase of an additional Cray supercomputer. Warnings for the Burns' Day storm three years later were accurate and on time.
BBC meteorologist Michael Fish drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit, seemingly flippantly:

Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.[10]

Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to Florida, USA, and were linked to a news story immediately preceding the weather bulletin, but had been so widely repeated out of context that the British public remains convinced that he was referring to the approaching storm. According to Michael Fish, the woman in question was actually a colleague's mother who was about to go on holiday in the Caribbean, and had called regarding Hurricane Floyd to see if it would be safe to travel.[11]
Fish went on to warn viewers in the UK to "batten down the hatches", saying it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the English Channel and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning is frequently left out of re-runs, which only adds to the public's misconception of that evening's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a weather ship in the Southwest Approaches, due to Met Office cutbacks, meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using satellite data, as automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time.
Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. Interestingly enough, the French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel.

riffmongous

I've always thought ME do a good job, especially compared to the competition. Imo having somebody who actually knows what they are talking about presenting the weather is far better than flashy graphics.

One of the worst things you can do in meteorology is tell people say that it is definitely going to rain at x time at x location, every prediction you make comes with a certain error

Discodog

riffmongous wrote: »

One of the worst things you can do in meteorology is tell people say that it is definitely going to rain at x time at x location, every prediction you make comes with a certain error

My heart bleeds for these poor meteorologists who are too sensitive to risk making an accurate prediction. Thank god for computers. Fishy may of been off the hook if he could of said "Computer says Hurricane". Maybe the forecast could have a warning message on the screen like "ME cannot guarantee the accuracy of this forecast".

The advantage with the "flashy" Sky graphics is that anyone in the Country gets an idea of when rain will arrive in their location.

If the "presenters" read a script then how can it make any difference who reads it ?. At least it lessens the bad news a bit if it is presented by someone who is easy on the eye. I think that an Italian TV station has it's weather presenters in the nip - that could be an interesting idea for ME !

riffmongous

Discodog wrote: »

My heart bleeds for these poor meteorologists who are too sensitive to risk making an accurate prediction.

Imo its more to do with professionalism, how can you say something that you know isn't totally true? Its the other forecasts that should carry the accuracy warning. I know what you mean about the timing, saying its going to rain tonight could be anytime from 22:00 to 7:00 which isn't much use,part of the problem is that the computer models are so large they are run every six hours at a resolution something like a square of 16km-8km.

Well if you have a meteorologist present the weather they will actually know what they are talking about so they can use more detailed slides such as pressure charts for the atlantic ocean which I always thought gave you a better idea of what the weather is going to be like

Deep Easterly

riffmongous wrote: »

Well if you have a meteorologist present the weather they will actually know what they are talking about so they can use more detailed slides such as pressure charts for the atlantic ocean which I always thought gave you a better idea of what the weather is going to be like

Agree. I remember as a child trying to make up my own forecasts from the Atlantic charts they showed on RTE!

I think Discodog has hit on a couple of good points esp about the vague timings within general forecasts. It's all good and well having hi res charts on various met sites but a high percentage of the population don't have access to the internet and depend on the basic tv or radio forecasts. Having said that, I have noticed that Evelyn Cusack and Jean Byrne will nearly always show more detail in their forecast when significant weather predicted. They often show the rainfall fall preditive sequence and which gives a rough idea at what time the rain will start and stop as well as zoomed in animated pressure charts etc. John Eagleton does to a lesser extent but he certainly is very verbal about timings etc. One little thing that irks me about John "the eagle" Eagleton is that he sometimes defines my area as being the mid-west, sometimes the north midlands and on other occasions the west coast! :pac: Well, it dosen't irk me all that much really as I know it must difficult in itself standing up doing a presentation in front of the entire nation and trying to fit as much information in such a short space of time.

fryup

RTE wrong again!! on last nights forcast 9o'clock news they said........fine for the first half of the day and then rain pushing in from the west in the afternoon

well we had no rain all day

you'd wouldn't want to plan a trip to the beach based on what RTE tell you

legendal

Discodog wrote: »

Maybe the forecast could have a warning message on the screen like "ME cannot guarantee the accuracy of this forecast".

Surely that's implied by the use of the word 'forecast', is it not?

Definition: "To serve as an advance indication of; To calculate or estimate something in advance."

Zardoz

fryup wrote: »

RTE wrong again!! on last nights forcast 9o'clock news they said........fine for the first half of the day and then rain pushing in from the west in the afternoon

well we had no rain all day

you'd wouldn't want to plan a trip to the beach based on what RTE tell you

RTE and Met Eireann have been consistently wrong in their forecast for my area for the last few months.
I use Accuweather and it is nearly always correct even with its hourly forecast ,whears Met Eireann cant even get the daily forecast correct.Ridiculous.

Danno

Where is "my area"???

Joe Public

Danno wrote: »

Where is "my area"???

No luck in the search yet

Discodog

All day yesterday RTE radio told me that I was experiencing thundering downpours. Sunny all day & not a drop of rain !. RTE use Provinces rather than locations which is a problem for Galway as we are on a border. Also they are a big area & can have a variation in weather. RTE were insistent that Connaught was wet. Later in the afternoon the penny dropped & they said that North Connaught was wet.

I will never understand why they don't mention Galway.

km79

20,km east of galway it pi$$ed down from 6-10 last might and then moderate rain . still going:mad:

mike65

Is it me or does Gerry always accentuate the negative ie he'll talk about how it'll be a bright day and then give undue emphasis to the outside chance of shower.

Deep Easterly

Discodog wrote: »

All day yesterday RTE radio told me that I was experiencing thundering downpours. Sunny all day & not a drop of rain !. RTE use Provinces rather than locations which is a problem for Galway as we are on a border. Also they are a big area & can have a variation in weather. RTE were insistent that Connaught was wet. Later in the afternoon the penny dropped & they said that North Connaught was wet.

I will never understand why they don't mention Galway.

We had some phenomonal amounts of rain here yesterday evening. Jean Byrne showed a close up of the rain radar in her 9.30pm forecast yesterday, saying there was rain over much of Connacht but clearer along the coast, which seemed to me to be fairly spot on?

Speak Now

Anyone hear Vincent O'Shea at 5 to midnight last night on radio 1, very Cowen like :pac:

Lumi

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Anyone hear Vincent O'Shea at 5 to midnight last night on radio 1, very Cowen like :pac:

Yep! He did sound a little tired & emotional but then again Cork HAD just won the All Ireland

Joe Duffy's bleating on about it at the moment

Update: RTE have just issued a statement saying that he'd had 'an adverse reaction to prescribed medication'

nacho libre

I think they have an enviable task rather like that of a state security service. An obscure comparison perhaps, but what i mean is they are only remembered for the times they get it wrong. We never see threads congratulating met eireann for getting the weather right. now the cynic might say that's because they never do, but the fact is that they do.

Oscar Bravo

I think Joe was shocked at the amount of people who heard the broadcast last night as he kept asking "so what were you doing at five to twelve last night" to all the callers who rang in.i dont suppose anyone has it recorded,the Weather broadcast,not Joe!?