SirDelboys Log

SirDelboy18

Ive made about 42 of these, but I firmly intend to do this the right way, plenty of research, analysis and carefully considered selections.

I've found that without a log I tend to become extremely erratic in my betting patterns and I hope that some structure and stability could change that.

I will work with a points system, and I will post up my first bet in the coming minutes.

Thanks, and feedback is more than welcome.

x PyRo

Best of luck mate, patience is key and don't go chasing losses. Slow and steady wins the race. Hope it goes well.

BGP

Haha, it's good to see you're trying to go about things in a considered and sensible manner.

Will it be mostly football you bet on?

[I feel like starting a new log too, but I only just started it ]

SirDelboy18

1. Kildare vs Monaghan.


Kildare are just about favourites in what I'm sure will be a tight game, but I feel that the bookies are being too kind to Kildare after a victory against Derry. Odds of 5/4 for a Monaghan victory are appealing, but in my opinion the value lies in Monaghan triumphing by 1-3 points at 16/5.

This is one of the draws that Monaghan will be relatively satisfied with. Paul Grimley will have detailed knowledge of a Kildare outfit which have impressed me in the past. Pressure weighed heavily on the shoulders of the Monaghan lads, and this resulted in poor ball-handling, aswell as a lack of astute decision making. They were touted as victors in many quarters, but
I firmly believe that the influence of the "favourites" tag shouldn't be underestimated. Monaghan are much better than their showing against Tyrone. Lets not forget that Tyrone are one of the most accomplished teams of the modern game, and Monaghan will be eager to restore pride. There is talk of this being the last chance for Banty and I believe that Monaghan will be very much motivated for this match.

Monaghan can look to players such Paul Finley, Rory Woods and obviously Freeman to dispose of a Kildare side which will have to fight fatigue. People have spoken too favourably of the victory against a Derry side which is misleading to say the least, when taking Derrys inconsistency into account. Monaghan racked up 42 points against Fermanagh and Armagh, and while I expect this to be a lower scoring affair than those matches, Monaghan should be motivated by the fact that this season is the end of the line for the current team.

Verdict = Monaghan by 1 - 3 points
Stake = 2 points.

Irish Wolf

Best of luck!

SirDelboy18

BGP wrote: »

Haha, it's good to see you're trying to go about things in a considered and sensible manner.

Will it be mostly football you bet on?

[I feel like starting a new log too, but I only just started it ]

Football will be my main gambling outlet when the seasons get back underway. I'll most likely keep it to English leagues and Europa League/Champions League though. I'll have some GAA bets too, like the one above, but I don't want to have too many bets per week. I'll try to put a limit on it.

coughlan08

was having a look at this game myself,
i dont tend to bet on evenly matched teams though.
i find there is better value to be had with the "in running betting" market.
e.g. the tyrone game,no1 expected them to run riot and completly dominate the game,the odds suggest that kildare are favourites and rightly so but it wouldnt suprise me to see mon win.
will wait for the first 30 mins of game to see how both teams fair out,i too expect the game to be close so the odds should not be too different to that of pre match.
btw,best of luck with the new log..

SirDelboy18

coughlan08 wrote: »

was having a look at this game myself,
i dont tend to bet on evenly matched teams though.
i find there is better value to be had with the "in running betting" market.
e.g. the tyrone game,no1 expected them to run riot and completly dominate the game,the odds suggest that kildare are favourites and rightly so but it wouldnt suprise me to see mon win.
will wait for the first 30 mins of game to see how both teams fair out,i too expect the game to be close so the odds should not be too different to that of pre match.
btw,best of luck with the new log..

For the sake of my log, I wont be doing any betting in running. I want to give people a chance to back my selections if ever they have the confidence in me to do so. I don't discourage anybody from putting in running betting into their log though, as each person will have different ideas and opinions about what their log should be. I certainly understand your point though:D

SirDelboy18

2.Tipperary vs Galway.


Only one winner here for me. Tipperary have had an inconsistent year to date. They will have been disappointed with league defeats to Dublin and Cork, aswell as a draw with Waterford, but the league wasn't seen as important this year by Sheedy and co.

The famous match against Cork was one of the worst performances that I have ever seen from a hurling outfit. Tipperary bought into their own hype and thought that they were invincible. Once things went wrong, the players seemed lost for ideas, and Sheedy himself was too slow to make changes, indicating to me that he was in a state of shock. Great lessons will have been learned from that match and I believe that Tipperary will firmly put their All Ireland aspirations back on track with a dominant victory against Galway.

People will talk about Joe Canning being one of the best players of the modern game, but I personally feel that Larry Corbett is as good as, if not better than Canning, and his colleagues in the Full Forward line should be able to cause great trouble for Galway. Sheedy is no longer afraid to make changes, and the team is radically different from that which lost to Cork. The strength in depth that Tipperary have is what could see them pull clear though. If they go with the same starting 15 as was picked in the Offaly game, we could see people like John O'Brien and one of my favourite players, Seamus Callanan come off the bench to put the game beyond all doubt.

This game is exactly what Tipperary need, and I believe that with the knowledge that a vulnerable Waterford lie in wait for the winners (presuming Cork beat Antrim), Tipperary will fancy themselves to force a repeat of last years All-Ireland final. This time though, they will hope, and I will expect a different outcome.

Verdict = Tipperary -2 @ 10/11
Stake = 2 points

For the record, these two bets will be my only bets this week;)

x PyRo

Loving the way you bold certain sentences, makes it really exciting to read! Like a thriller being narrated. :pac:

SirDelboy18

Going to have a tentative 1 pointer on the following double.

3.) Limerick vs Cork & Dublin vs Louth

I was impressed with the showing of Limerick against Kerry, and that was only one in a number of impressive perormances. John Galvin is a good player able to cause Cork difficulty and Limerick were able to push Kerry all over the field in their recent match, until true quality finally shone through. They can draw from that performance, and they will be happy with the next match taking place in the Gaelic Grounds.

Limerick have shown in the past that they can give Cork a real battle. In 2008, they lost to Cork by 3 points. In 2009, they led all the way, until being caught in the very last moments with a sucker-punch winning goal for Cork. I don't expect Limerick to win, but I think that the handicap is appealing and has potential to be exploited.

Verdict = Limerick (+4) - evens

The entire country is talking about Louth, and I think it is tough to judge what the response to the Meath match will be. Nevertheless, they will be pleased to return to Croke Park in an attempt to right the cruel fate that denied them a place in the quarter finals.

Louths inability to remain composed cost them dearly against Meath, but I believe that the experience of that big day will help remove any nerves from the side. Louth can look to exploit Dublins shaky corner backs with long balls into JP Rooney and Judge. Fanning playing in the defense for Louth is a huge boost to the team as he is capable of keeping things tight and will help limit the supply to Brogan.

Dublin are in a transitional period whereas Louth know who and what they are. I expect the entire country to be behind Louth, and if things are tight entering the final quarter, then I think Louth could edge it. All the same, I wouldn't throw the house on a Louth victory, and that is why I have a preference for the handicap, which should give them the extra points to ensure some profit.

Verdict = Louth (+3) - evens

Stake = 1 point

coughlan08

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

Ive made about 42 of these, but I firmly intend to do this the right way, plenty of research, analysis and carefully considered selections.

I've found that without a log I tend to become extremely erratic in my betting patterns and I hope that some structure and stability could change that.

I will work with a points system, and I will post up my first bet in the coming minutes.

Thanks, and feedback is more than welcome.

whats your starting bank points wise as its hard to judge how confedent you are,also if people wanted to follow your bets they would be able to establish the stake to "put on".

SirDelboy18

coughlan08 wrote: »

whats your starting bank points wise as its hard to judge how confedent you are,also if people wanted to follow your bets they would be able to establish the stake to "put on".

We can say 100 points.
I'll only ever do between 1 and 5 points on a selection, and 5 will be a rarity I imagine.

SirDelboy18

Have a small bet on Freeman to get the first goal aswell, but I won't be counting that towards the log.:D

SirDelboy18

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

Have a small bet on Freeman to get the first goal aswell, but I won't be counting that towards the log.:D

That could be that. Decision making is absolutely shocking..

SirDelboy18

Sorry about that lads if anyone took my tip, with all the money on Workforce aswell it hasn't been a great day for the forums.

SirDelboy18

Bad day at the office, Limerick won with the handicap, but one has to be prepared to take the risks involved with doubles when making them..

Onwards and upwards:D

SirDelboy18

Manchester United vs Chelsea

I can see Man Utd winning here, and perhaps with something to spare. The side should be capable of handling the threat of a Chelsea side which looked sluggish in pre-season. Man Utd look likely to line up with the same back four as featured in the Irish game, and despite having reservations about Smallings tendancy to wander, I think they should limit Chelseas threat. I see value in Nani to score 1st though. He ended last season in a rich vein of scoring form and I personally see him getting 15+ goals this season as he begins to assume Ronaldos old mantle. He scored in this same fixture last season and his pace can help him to do the same here.

Nani to score 1st @ 11/1 - 1 point

SirDelboy18

1 point returned from Nani not being on pitch.

Tipp to beat Waterford by 4-6 @ 10/3
Liverpool to beat Arsenal 1-0 @ 7/1

1 point double.


P.S = Sorry about lateness and standard/lack of write up.

SirDelboy18

Valencia vs Man Utd

There is a lot being made of Man Utd not being the same as before, conceding late goals when 3 years ago they wouldn't have, lacking composure and having individial trials get more headlines than that of the team. I personally think Man United will still win the PL, maybe even CL, but others will have differing opinions on that. One thing I think is impossible to overlook though is the form of both Dimi Berbatov and Nani.

Last season Nani began to finally "fulfill his potential" and we saw some fantastic play from the young winger. With Antonio Valencia out until possibly the end of the season, Nani lies as Uniteds only first choice natural winger. I think he will thrive under this pressure and one can point to his 2 goals and 6 assists to justify my faith. He will definetly fancy his chances against Jeremy Mathieu, a player never considered good enough to earn himself a senior cap for France, despite him being 26 years old.

The injuries to the Valencia side are more extensive when compared to those of Man Utd but being in Ireland we are the benefactors of completely lop-sided coverage. Mata, Banega, Joaquin, just to name a few, are either doubtful or not featuring. Even if they feature, one can realistically pose question marks about their capacity to last 90 rigorous minutes against a United side seething from effectively giving away 6 premier league points, and being completely inept against a mediocre Rangers side.

Valencias position at the top of the Spanish league is deceptive as their fixture list has been kind to say the least. The likes of Sporting Gijon, Racing Santander, Malaga are hardly world beaters and I firmly believe that United can put them away to end their poor streak in Spain.

My recommendation is for a risky bet on Nani to score the first goal.

Nani to score first @ 11/1(Paddy Power) - 2 points.

Closing bank = 91 points.

SirDelboy18

Two stand out bets for me this weekend,

Derby County away to Millwall is a great price in my opinion. Kris Commons is playing out of his skin of late and Nigel Clough not only has his team playing attractive football, he has them winning games, and Derby go into this match on the back of a 6-game unbeaten run. Millwall meanwhile, haven't won at home since August and are in serious danger of falling away. Low on confidence and with just one league win in the last 8, Derby can take the three here.

Derby - 4 points - 23/10 (Boylesports)

For the purposes of a double, Plymouth are take-able at a risky 7/4. With world cup striker Rory Fallon back, I feel that the tide can be turned for a Plymouth side that traditionally save their best football for the better sides

2 Points double Returns 18.15

SirDelboy18

Marseille to beat Auxerre with Loic Remy anytime goalscorer - 3/1

4 points win.

Newcastle vs Liverpool, Over 2.5 goals - Evens

5 points win

C.Palace vs Hull, James Vaughan first goalscorer - 6/1

3 points win

SirDelboy18

Overs came in but James Vaughan missed a sitter because hes a bottler. Bank at 83 points with the Marseille bet to bring me back to starting bank hopefully