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Tropical Storm BONNIE
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22-07-2010 4:05pm#1000
WTNT23 KNHC 221459
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1500 UTC THU JUL 22 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 221503
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 75.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0
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South Florida braced for heavy squalls Friday morning as Tropical Storm Bonnie neared the coastline, the National Hurricane Center said. Bonnie remained a minimal tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. ET advisory.
The storm is moving toward the west-northwest at 19 mph and is centered 75 miles east of Marathon, Florida, and 80 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida east coast from Deerfield Beach southward, including the Florida Keys and Florida Bay.
A tropical storm warning was is in effect for the west coast of Florida as far north as Englewood. A tropical storm warning for the central Bahamas was canceled early Friday morning.
If Bonnie maintains its current strength as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, only slight intensification is likely before it makes landfall early Sunday along the Louisiana coast, the hurricane center said. It predicts its maximum sustained winds will reach only 50 mph over the Gulf.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/07/23/tropical.weather/index.html#fbid=HNPJES9blc80 -
Greetings from the florida keys and the eye of the storm
We drove down here last night in the interests of boardsie reasearch don't you know
A lot of flooding and a lot of thunder and lightning.
The road to the hotel was completely flooded this morning-high 4wd getting through only.
But land sakes,it's not that big a deal,I've seen wetter and windier in Ireland!
Here the local tv station has gone 24hrs "bonnie watch" talk about overkill :rolleyes:
It's sunny and breezy now already and the floods and roads are drying out already...the local school was a shelter...
heh-they should have came here instead...a fully stocked bar
Anyhow-roving reporter BB out!0
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