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Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Cape Blanco 1pt @ 9/1 Stan James/BetPack

More to Follow

CAUTION! O'Brien hasn't ruled out pulling his horses from the race

Cristophe Soumillion has been booked for the ride which tends to carry a lot of creedence. He's won the race twice and is one of the most accomplished jockeys in the world. He knows Longchamp like the back of his hand and has a knack for getting horses to run for him. Although with Cape Blanco I don't see that as being an issue. The style of his Champion Stakes win was very impressive especially with Rip van Winkle running so well in the QEII on his next start. There certainly is a worry about the ground even without the sentiments expressed by Aiden O'Brien but this is an Irish Derby winner and trouncer of Workforce twice and Rip Van Winkle last time. Only once has he run a bad race and ominously that was in France. Its easy to pick holes in his chances with the ground and his pedigree of sprinters but the matter of an Irish Classic over 1m4f at the Curragh and a perfect record over the 11/2 third favorite suggests that regardless of the trainers fears, if he runs he has a better chance than an 10/1 shot.

Nulty

Dundalk 8.30

Beethoven 4pts @ 3/1 PP (GP)

Reasoning to follow if I get a price I'm happy with. Going to bed now to get up early and see whats available...could be a lump on job.

Having performed well over the summer, running against the best horses around he has shown he is up to scratch. His consistency suggests that a performance here is very likely and the record of Oratorios on the AW is pretty good. His main rival though not his only rival is Gitano Hernando who I took on once before when he wasn't totally fit. He beat genuine Listed horses by 4l that day but that wasn't coming off an injury and Beethoven is much better than Listed class. I think odds on about the Botti horse is a bit much since the trainer said he'll be fit enough to race but will come on for it as expected. This is a pipe opener for the Hernando colt and a tough one. 3/1 is a great price for Beethoven and I'm happy to wager that he has a better chance than the odds suggest

UrbanSea

Would have been hard to beat Gitano.

Nulty

By Beethovens form in that race, Mid Mon Lady is a better horse than Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over....

Just didn't work out today

Nulty

Newmarket 1.55

Together 1pt @ 9/4 PP (GP)

Her form against White Moonstone is easily the best on offer though the real danger is the potential of her opponants. There is plenty in her favour though, firstly she has the advantage of experience and that may count for a lot in such a large field. Second, that effort last time against White Moonstone came on soft ground and third, shes got a relatively favourable draw high on the far side where the going stick has produced the best readings. A lot of suprises can happen here so a tentative point on the nose is plenty. Also the pace in the race is likely to be good with so many runners and that ought to play into her hands

Nulty

Newmarket 3.00

Aviate 2pts ew @ 14/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) (GP)

Henry Cecil clearly thinks this filly can win a G1 and I don't think we've seen the best of her yet. Her run at the Curragh on soft ground over 10f was encouraging but still more is needed. The drop back to a mile and the presence of rain softened turf gives me another angle to approach this filly with. Shes unbeaten at a mile and judging by her Oaks trial win and her run at the Curragh, a slow mile should be ideal for her. Most appeal comes from the posibilities of the filly and her masterful trainer. There is still plenty to discover with her and with many of the main protagonists relatively exposed she could have an edgge over them in these conditions. At 14/1 I'm willing to take a risk that Henry Cecil knows what he's doing after trying every other avenue.

Nulty

Epsom 2.05

Resurge 1pt @ 3/1 PP (GP)


Redcar 2.45

Celtic Change 1pt @ 10/1 PP (GP)

Nulty

Epsom 3.50

Suzy Wong 1pt @ 7/2 Bet 365

5l debut win over 9f here at Epsom on GS ground. The official going has been changed to Heavy and the emphasis on stamina and the experience in dealing with the cambres of the track should give Suzy Wong an edge here.

Nulty

Newmarket 3.40

Emirates Dream 1pt ew @ 12/1 SkyBet (1/4 Odds, 6 Places)

Taking advantage of SkyBets 6 places in this race where I think Emirates Dream will enjoy the soft ground, is ideally drawn and the drop back to under 10f has shown him in his best light.

UrbanSea

I was looking at Suzi Wong too,she was meant to run in that conditions race at Epsom too but is going for this one,should run well.

Nulty

Bank: 9.1

Nulty

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Midas Touch 1pt ew @ 50/1

Emphasis on stamina with the ground likely to be Very Soft, Midas Touch could be over priced having run very well in the St. Leger. He may not be the most suited to deep ground but not many of these are. One thing that is for sure is that being by Gallileo he wont't hate it and will be able to give his best running. He's the best drawn of Ballydoyles runners in stall 18. With no real pacemakers being entered by Ballydoyle in this years renewal, it looks most likely that the dour stayer will undertake the pacessetting duties. This will play to his strengths as he will have to be out in front because he hasn't got a turn of pace. However fast he's going at the furlong pole he's not likely to be stopping so could knick a place or if things go really well, win. Looks an over-priced waste of money to me (:P) if my in running predictions come to pass

Nulty

Prix De La Foret Longchamp 2.20

Dick Turpin 3pts ew @ 6/1 Stan James (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

My adopted horse for the year (Mastercraftsman last year) has shown that he is a seriously good horse but has been over-shadowed by his stablemate in that he was aimed at whatever Canford Cliffs wasn't. Placing in the 2,000 Guineas behind Makfi, beating Canford Cliffs over 7f before that, placing behind that one over a mile after the Guineas and absolutely smashing Siyouni on Good to Soft ground to get his much deserved first Group 1. Its going to be tacky there and both Goldikova and Paco Boy showed that they aren't at their best on this type of ground being beaten by the very respectable Makfi last time. I can't see Dick Turpin being out of the mix here and is the bet of the day in Paris. His defeat at Longchamp last year is the only thing that stops me going max bet but that was on ground very different from todays.

Nulty

Prix de L'Abbaye

Bluster 1pt ew @ 50/1 SportingBet

Can't work out why he's such a massive price. 2l down in a 3/1 shot in very similar conditions to today over CD beating 5 of the other horses reopposing this afternoon. Beat another of my fancies Planet Five over 6f and he's 16/1 - 20/1. Just doesn't add up, bet must be made

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Prix De La Foret Longchamp 2.20

Dick Turpin 3pts ew @ 6/1 Stan James (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

**** that! way too far back! I'm pissed about that....It looked totally like he was trying to tow Paco Boy into the race. I could be totally wrong and talking out of my pocket but he should have been much closer.

Nulty

Makfi retired....

Bank: -3.4

Nulty

Nottingham 4.10

Tamanaco 2pts @ 6/1 Paddy Power

Profile of a horse that will show his best on soft ground. In his last race he was interfered with by a horse coming up the rail and then was stopped slightly in the straight. He came wide and powered past two subsequent double race winners one of which being the soft ground loving Pintura. He's had only 6 races in his career and on his debut last year as a juvenle he finished just over 3l behind Shakesperean and ahead of Confessional (93) and Victoire de Lyphar (103) but that form can't be taken too literally of course. The most attractive thing about this one is both action his record on soft ground. That maiden was run on GS, and both his career wins have come on GS with the last boardering on Soft. Tomorrows conditions should be perfect for him to continue his progress. the trainer Walford had a winner over CD in Soft recently so form isn't a worry.

Nulty

Tamanaco 4th
Bank: -5.3

York 2.45

Jet Away 2pts @ 11/4 PP (GP)

Henry Cecils colt is clearly very classsy and showed that last time despite not handling Epsom. He came from behind to get to within a length of the Godolphin winner but Frankie Dettori rode the race perfectly. Theres every chance that he could do that again today with an even better horse in Kirklees but its apparent that we haven't seen the best of Jet Away yet. His long galloping strideand high knee action was made for this type of race. TYork will give him plenty of time to get into his stride and he should be at home in the softer conditions. Hopefully Quelly can keep up with Dettori and I suppose thats asking a lot.

Nulty

York 3.20

Internationaldebut 1pt ew @ 33/1

Well below his last winning mark and a decent record at York. Has been disappointing his last two starts but didn't have much go his way those two races. He was cut up at Chester and probably found too much to do over the 6f at Ayr. His total profile probably entitles him to be a big price but 33/1 is probably too big.

Nulty

Carlisle 4.50

Garleton 1pt @ 11/2 Ladbrokes (GP)

Set an impossible task 21lbs out of the handicap at Aintree at the back end of last season. He comes back in a C4 handica shase over a suitable trip on suitable ground. He has a decent 7lb claimer on board taking him down to an attractive weight. His price probably reflects the uncertainty over his seasonal debut but he has gone well off a lay off before and looks a bet at the prices

Nulty

Loads of **** going on today so can't supply reasoning.

Ascot 3.05

Brave Prospector 2pts ew @ 20/1 Bet365 (GP) (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Ascot 3.40

Red Merlin 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes (GP) (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

York 2.15

Pintura 1pt ew @ 16/1 Bet365 (GP) (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

York 2.45

Nemo Spirit 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Nulty

One more. I'm going to Mondello to drive a Mazda 3 around the track.


Ascot 5.25

Magical Speedfit 1pt @ 8/1 Ladbrokes


Enjoy the racing!

Nulty

5th, 5th, 2nd, 7th, 13th

Beaten a feckin head out of places with the two 5ths at 20/1 and 16/1....losing 12pts by two heads:mad:

Dubawi Gold wins at 25/1 after I've backed him his last 4 starts...:mad:


This is doing my nut in

Nulty

Bank: -15.3

Nulty

forgot I did a 4 point accumulator a few days ago

Breeders Cup Mile & Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares Turf

Midday @ evens
Goldikova @ 6/4
Double @ 4/1

I also did one with the same selections with Frankel @ 2/1 (2,00 Guineas), Zenyatta @ 5/1 (BC Classic)

4-Fold @ 89/1

Nulty

Goodwood 2.35

Summerinthecity 2pts ew @ 9/2 Bet365 (GP) (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)


Munster National Limerick 4.35

Dancing Tornado 2pts ew @ 4/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)


Going the safe route here with both, If they can't place I'll know that paper trading is the next step. They really ought to place at least. Plus my bank is empty for now. Won't be having another bet for a while if I can't get a return from these.

UrbanSea

And more importantly,what was Mondelo park like?

Nulty

Its deadly. Drove Mazda and a Formula Sheane cars. Really cool but I only really got the hang of it towards the end - had trouble with the gears. The time flys when your doing it cause your so focused on learning. I'm definitely going back for the Advanced course.

Nulty

Well thats that! I'm broke. :rolleyes:

Bank: -23.4

Nulty

And up goes the table of shame!


119.Dubai Hills | 2nd| .5 ew| 8/1| | +24.1
120.Khor Sheed | 10th| 1 Win| 6/1| | +23.1
121.Irish Field | 4th| 1 ew| 14/1| | +21.1
122.Beethoven | 6th| 4 Win| 3/1| | +17.1
123.Together | 3rd| 1 Win| 9/4| | +16.1
124.Resurge | 1st| 1 Win| 3/1| | +19.1
125.Celtic Change | 9th| 1 Win| 10/1| | +18.1
126.Aviate | 6th| 2 ew| 14/1| | +14.1
127.Nationalism | 28th| 1 ew| 25/1| | +12.1
128.Emirates Dream | 31st| 1 ew| 12/1| | +10.1
129.Suzy Wong | 4th| 1 Win| 7/2| | +9.1
130.Arctic | 5th| 1 ew| 33/1| | +7.1
131.Planet Five | 17th| 1 ew| 16/1| | +5.1
132.Bluster | 16th| 1 ew| 50/1| | +3.1
133.Dick Turpin | 3rd| 3 ew| 6/1| | +4.6
134.Midas Touch | 17th| 1 ew| 50/1| | +2.6
135.Cape Blanco | 13th| 1 Win| 9/1| | +1.6
136.Makfi | NR| 5 Win| 4/1| | -3.4
137.Tamanaco | 4th| 2 Win| 6/1| | -5.4
138.Jet Away | 6th| 2 Win| 4/1| | -7.4
139.Internationaldebut| 7th| 1 ew| 4/1| | -9.4
140.Garleton | 6th| 1 Win| 11/2| | -10.4
141.Brave Prospector| 5th| 2 ew| 20/1| | -14.4
142.Red Merlin | 5th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -16.4
143.Pintura | 2nd| 1 ew| 16/1| | -13.4
144.Nemo Spirit | 7th| 1 Win| 16/1| | -14.4
145.Magical Speedfit | 13th| 1 Win| 8/1| | -15.4
146.Dancing Tornado | 10th| 2 ew| 4/1| | -19.4
147.Summeinthecity | 8th| 2 ew| 9/2| | -23.4