Fresh start

Nulty

Bank: +66.17

I would have been pissed if Moyene Corniche had won that, backed him last time when he came dead last. Think I'll be on next time.

Nulty

I've a few quid to mess around with now and missing all my instinct winners so making a few bets tomorrow...

Ascot 12.55

Teddy´s Reflection 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 (GP)

Hen Knight hasn't found winners easily lately but Teddys could go well today at a price. He might not be the most appealing but he's run well enough at Ascot last year and comes now 10lbs lighter. He was 3rd at 17f in soft and now steps up again to a preferable distance. He's gone very close on occasions against a 1/4 shot and maybe the value in a relatively open race. Last horse to beat him Sarde won at Market Rasen on Thursday and he goes well fresh. Shouold give a good run for the money.

Nulty

Ascot 2.05

Albertas Run 2pts @ 9/4

He's won this race last year beating Planet Of Sound by 3l. He loves the course with a 2/3 record here and while he seems to prefer better ground, the going was officially Good to Soft last year too. There are enough doubts over the short priced favorite Master Minded to think that he's worth taking on with a horse of the class of Albertas Run. Albertas has had a run and is tested at the distance. He's come off the back off two great runs in the spring and is given the benefit of a run before taking on the Nicholls legend. If anything, a reverse forecast is the best bet here but I'd rather throw my eggs in Tony McCoys basket.

Just read Timeforms view...they sum it up nicely

Nulty

Ascot 3.10

Pickamus 1pt @ 8/1 Lads

Has had his pipeopener this season over hurdles and that ought to put him straight for this. He runs off in front and may be able to put the field to the sword on a strong gallop. He was always destined to be a better chaser than a hurdler and if able to dominate out in front gets into a rhythm. His only loss over fences came at two miles but too much can be read into that and I think he will have enough to compete back at 2m1f. He has the services of the champion jockey. The form of his last race is decent with three of the contenders winning the time after their next run. Pickamus gave the field 12lbs+ that day and could have more to give this season.

Nulty

Haydock 2.20

Dance Island 2pts ew + 1pt Win @ 12/1 Lads

This one seems to be written off for some reason and is far longer in the betting than he should be imo. This is a seriously competitive race but there is no doubt where the value lies. Dance Island got to within 3l of Burton Port, rated 152OR and 9/1 for the Hennessy as we speak. DI also beat Take The Breeze rated 147OR by a head in the same race at Aintree and that horse had the beating of all but Massini's Maguire in a hot handicap at the end of October. Now, I've read that Dance Island may be on a stiff mark for his efforts in that race but is it not also true that he deserves to be higher than the 137OR he has been given? Level weights race at Aintree and OR just don't add up. The horse has had 2 chase starts and finished 1, 3, 2, He's had a spin over hurdles and should be spot on. The onl reason I can see for him to be a long price is the jockey and trainer combo. There is always going to be something about a horse trying to put you off a bet. I'll take this one

Nulty

Might stick a point on Lord Generous ew in the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock. See how things look tomorrow..

Actually -

Haydock 2.50

Lord Generous 1pt ew @ 25/1 PP (1/4 Odds, 4 Places, GP)

I liked this one at the festival last season but I'm beginning to think that maybe he is best at the beginning of the season. Almost like that good flat horse whose name escapes me who was infertile and brought back into training. They are good for a few runs in the year but then their form tails off. Chevely Park colours the flat horse wore...damn can't remember the name. Anyway, Lord Generous seems to turn after Christmas and not run to his form, or at least doesn't progress past the mark he earns in the Autumn/Winter. He was disappointing on his seasonal debut over fences but maybe he just isn't ready for fences. NTD puts blinkers on him for the first time today and that may shrpen him up further.His best effort t date was a 3rd behind Tell Massini at Cheltenham in December and if my convenient excuses are right he was thinking about holidays already then . No issue with the ground, stable are flying, back to hurdling, and maybe under rated. Worth a poke I reckon

Nulty

Lingfield 3.05

Suits Me 1pt @ 8/1 Lads

I sillily backed this one to beat Gitano Hernando last season and while he kept finding one too good those horses were something special. I'm probably walking into that situation again but Suits me could be over priced because of his early season turf form and is best these days on the All Weather. He's won 7 turf races and 4 aw races but the 4 aw races have all come since his last turf win. He's formiddable at Lingfield over 10f, especially in Listed races. He's placed 212322 in listed races there and will win another when things drop right for him. Hugh Taylor took 2 points of his price this morning but I reckon he's still a bet.

Lingfield 3.40

Brave Prospector 1pt @ 6/1 Lads

Another one HT has picked that I have a history with. I thought he was over priced last time in the conditions at 20/1 in a Group3 race where Lads went 4 places. He was beaten a head into 5th at 25/1 SP. I reckon he'll go well here and has a definite chance although he has no AW experience. He's by Oasis Dream though and he has a 14% SR on AW tracks in Britain so I'll take it that Brave Prospector will be no different. He's got a decent draw in 7 and goes with good Prospects

UrbanSea

I fancy opposing MM too,hope they come good Iain. lawl.

Nulty

Teddy's Reflection Drifted to 14/1....Free Role Saturday!

Nulty

Bank: +77.17

UrbanSea

Hey Nulty is that your facebook with the photo of a horse and jockey

Nulty

That would be Markab.

Nulty

Kempton 1.30

Amber Brook 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365

This will be her 3rd attempt at the race in a row and has finished 2nd on both occasions and with the level of talent and potential at the top of the market theres not much to suggest that she'll better that result this time round. But her last run can be ignored as it came over 2m1f, her previous two races were decent efforts and she gets good ground today which she apparantly needs. A liking for the track at Kempton is evident aswell. Shes rated well enough but ran fourth in the Mares Hurdle at the festival too. Shes in great form and this is a horse race so I'm taking the 4/1 available in the hope that her revived ability can see her claim the prize thats eluded her for two years.

Nulty

Kempton 2.35

Cubism 2pts @ 12/1 VC

I'm finding it tough to pick one here but Cubism is appealing now with a visor tried. The last twice that Harris has put the visor on first time his horse has won. The one before that was a 50/1 shot finishing 2nd. The stats aren't great before 2009 but since, he's got a +39pts to LSP and 36% SR for first time visors. Cubism has run very creditably lately over various distances though beaten by Firm Order and now effectively 7lbs wrong with that individual. He's onl a four year old though and still has plenty to learn and plenty of improvement to find. He takes a huge amount of racing and is as consistent as anything. Worth a chance at 12/1 in a competitive race, I'd say.

Nulty

Kempton 3.10

Royal Kicks 1pt ew @ 14/1 PP (2 Places, 1/4 Odds)

Sue Smith has been hitting the cross bar lately without getting a winner. Her horses though have been racing with no problems and are worth following. Shes not the greatest with hurdlers but I don't know the quality of hurdler she gets. Shes more than capable of getting a chaser in the winners enclosure though. She has a 26% SR at Kempton and Royal Kicks has a course and distance win to his name. Bar his last effort the horse has been in exceptionally consistent form now partnered by a decent 7lbs claimer. He comes here against younger horses but gets a stone+ from the field. A liking for the course and a flyweight to carry, the winning jockey/horse combination are excused their last run by this punter. Hopefully the poor run hasn't dented the confidence he's built up since March. He's been in the first two in 5 of his last 7 races. He definitely looks the value here.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Kempton 2.35

Cubism 2pts @ 12/1 VC

I'm finding it tough to pick one here but Cubism is appealing now with a visor tried. The last twice that Harris has put the visor on first time his horse has won. The one before that was a 50/1 shot finishing 2nd. The stats aren't great before 2009 but since, he's got a +39pts to LSP and 36% SR for first time visors. Cubism has run very creditably lately over various distances though beaten by Firm Order and now effectively 7lbs wrong with that individual. He's onl a four year old though and still has plenty to learn and plenty of improvement to find. He takes a huge amount of racing and is as consistent as anything. Worth a chance at 12/1 in a competitive race, I'd say.

Very worrying signs. Stan James go 25/1....

Kempton 2.35 Cubism 1pt ew @ 25/1 SJ (GP)

Nulty

Absolute bloodbath.

Bank: 70.17

Nulty

Hennessy Gold Cup

China Rock 1pt ew @ 25/1 VC

I've kept my eye on his price since he drifted to 100/1 on the exchanges and it must have been expected that he woouldn't take his chance. He's been left in the entries though no jockey has been assigned (a fairly reliable indication that he'll be running). He's improving all the time having come from the Novice ranks last year. The form with Kauto may be questioned by many but off level weights, no matter what shape Kauto was in, it takes a very good horse to finish within 4l of him over 3m. The form is crabbed because of the proximity of the 2nd and China Rock but their form hasn't been tested since and I think China Rock can show that was no fluke. He's not tried 27f before but his last race in Down Royal would have been softer than the forecast conditions at Newbury and still ran a blinder. Another year under his belt and he should have strengthened up enough to compete over the distance.

Nulty

i read in the paper today that they were going with china rock with Barry Geraghty booked and now i find out he wont travel.

ante-post...bookies love it!

Bank: +68.17

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

i read in the paper today that they were going with china rock with Barry Geraghty booked and now i find out he wont travel.

ante-post...bookies love it!

Bank: +68.17

China Rock declared for the Hennessy. I don't know whats going on...but for now

Bank: +70.17

UrbanSea

Trying to confuse you sir.

Nulty

Wolverhampton 6.40

Pelham Crescent 1pt @ 13/2 PP (GP)

Pissed I missed this one last time and probably trying to make up for it but he looked like he could follow up with a strong pace

Nulty

Wolves 7.10

Tres Froide .5pts ew @ 10/1 Will Hill

Over priced imo and decent draw

Nulty

Pelham Crescent beaten 5th off slow gallop and Tres Froide 3rd

Bank: 69.92

Nulty

China Rock won't run

Bank: 67.97

Lingfield 3.05

Seek The Fair Land 1.5pts ew @ 16/1 VC

Over priced, best on aw, two CD wins to his name. His record over CD reads 1,1,3,3,3,3. He's 1lbs above last winning mark, rider and trainer in decent heart and gets a decent fraw in 4.

Nulty

I haven't put up the table since breaking the 200 bets mark...

201.Theatrical Moment| 11th| 1 Win| 7/1| | +31.97
202.Bookiesindex Girl| 14th| 1 Win| 43/1| | +30.97
203.Berties Dream| 4th| 1 Win| 9/2| | +29.97
204.Razor Royale| 8th| 1 ew| 12/1| | +27.97
205.Zacharova| PU| .5 ew| 33/1| | +26.97
206.Mad Max| 4th| 2 ew| 8/1| | +28.97
207.European Dream| 5th| 1 Win| 9/2| | +27.97
208.Champion Court| 1st| 2 Win| 6/1| | +39.97
209.Cucumber Run| 5th| 1 Win| 9/2| | +38.97
210.Lewyn| 4th| 1 ew| 25/1| | +36.97
211.Lujiana | 5th| 1 ew| 22/1| | +34.97
212.Astrodonna| 5th| 2 Win| 11/1| | +32.97
213.Night Witch| 3rd| 2 Win| 13/2| | +30.97
214.Sir Geoffrey| 1st| 1 ew| 12/1| | +45.37
215.Sir Geoffrey| 1st| 1 ew| 14/1| | +62.17
216.Bushy Dell| 10th| 1 Win| 14/1| | +61.17
217.Duke of Rainford| 9th| 1 Win| 10/1| | +60.17
218.Tominator | 1st| 1 Win| 6/1| | +66.17
219.Teddy´s Reflection| 1st| 1 Win| 14/1| | +80.17
220.Albertas Run | Fell| 2 Win| 9/4| | +78.17
221.Dance Island | 2nd| 2 ew| 14/1| | +83.17
222.Dance Island | 2nd| 1 Win| 14/1| | +82.17
223.Lord Generous | PU| 1 ew| 25/1| | +80.17
224.Suits Me | 3rd| 1 Win| 8/1| | +79.17
225.Pickamus | 5th| 1 Win| 8/1| | +78.17
226.Brave Prospector | 3rd| 1 Win| 6/1| | +77.17
227.Amber Brook | 3rd| 1 Win| 4/1| | +76.17
228.Cubism | 12th| 2 Win| 12/1| | +74.17
229.Cubism | 12th| 1 ew| 25/1| | +72.17
230.Royal Kicks | 4th| 1 ew| 14/1| | +70.17
231.China Rock | APNR| 1 ew| 25/1| | +68.17
232.Pelham Crescent | 5th| 1 Win| 13/2| | +67.17
233.Tres Froide | 3rd| .5 ew| 10/1| | +67.92
234.Seek The Fair Land |2nd| 1.5 ew| 16/1| | +71.22


Bank: +71.22

Nulty

Dundalk 9.00

Denny Crane 1pt @ 7/2 Lads

I backed this fell last time and he was trapped in behind runners and looked like he wouldn't get a run but having delayed him as long as was possible he flew out and won with plenty in hand. Wish I had got on earlier but still 7/2 could still be worth a bit of value.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Hennessy Ante-Post (Assuming Kauto runs)

Neptune Collonges 1pt @ 16/1 Lads

Seriously good horse before his injury and placed twice in Gold Cups. Tendon injury has kept him out but returned to training this year and the Hennessy has been the plan from the beginning. Its hard to get a horse back from these sort of problems in the long run but very possible to get one good run out of them. See Taranis, who is owned by the same connections, that won a G2 chase after nearly 3 years off the course last season and is entered in this race. Nicholls can get them back for one and will not run them if they don't have a winnig chance. He's been given a 10lbs advance by the handicapper for his 600+ days off and if Kauto runs he'll be one of three horses in the handicap.

This bet counts on two things - Kauto running and obviously Neptune running. 16/1 looks a decet price but not my only bet in the race. More will unfold in the days ahead as running plan become apparent.

Neptune Collonges 2pts ew @ 16/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 4 Places, GP)

Pressing up on Neptune Collonges for the Hennessy. Didn't realise that Taranis was owned by another person...got mixed up obviously. I still think that getting this far with the horse is enough to go in again with the comfort of knowing a non-runner is not a losing bet. Also why I'm going ew on him. Owners gave him a mention earlier in the week and with his weight concession and his form fresh and other reasons outlined above he's a decent bet based on proven ability.

Juwwi

Nulty on oddschecker is says ladbrokes are going 5 places.

I hope they didnt change it after your bet,check your receipt if you did it online.

Im going with him myself I think 16/1 is a great price.

Nulty

Brilliant! Ladbrokes aren't the most likely firm to give you 5 places...theres only 18 runners max! This is an absolute steal. I have to pick another one...the odds of getting a place are as good as it gets. We're supposed to feel priviliged to get 5 places in the Grand National FFS!

Thanks Robbie