Fresh start

Nulty

Hennessy Gold Cup

Madison du Berlais 1.5pts ew @ 16/1 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places, GP)

Filling it in tomorrow for the record

Nulty

Newbury 12.25

Binocular 1pt @ 10/11 Sporting Bet

Nulty

Had to take the Binocular price but wasn't aware of the warnings about his apparent fitness. A few were saying he didn't look 100%.

Kempton 2.10

Tinshu 1pt @ 7/1 PP (GP)

Nulty

Kempton 3.15

Atlantic Story 1pt @ 9/1 Bet365

Grat SR at 1m, good on AW decent draw and better for his pipeopener

Juwwi

That fence could'nt of gone any worse for you Nulty.
Madison falls and brings down neptune and ruins pandoramas chance.
Fooking hell thats unlucky.

Nulty

Newbury 3.40

Piraya 2pts @ 11/1 Sporting Bet

Nulty

Jesus! 2pts down from China Rock, 5pts down on Neptune and 3pts down on Madison. Cruel race.

-13pts today so far

Nulty

robbie1977 wrote: »

That fence could'nt of gone any worse for you Nulty.
Madison falls and brings down neptune and ruins pandoramas chance.
Fooking hell thats unlucky.

Well on the bright side, if anyone ever asks me what my least favorite fence in NH racing is I'll have a definite answer. I cant believe I over looked Diamond Harry. I admittedly didn't look at him very closely. Disappointing. The most irritating thing is not getting to see Neptune run again. Really want to see him back.

Nulty

Down 15pts yesterday.

Bank: +55.22

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante Post

Pandorama 2pt ew @ 33/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Going for a nice build up through a second-season chase this weekend at Down Royal and then taking on the Hennessey field that is likely to include Denman and Kauto Star. He'll get a nice weight in that if either of them start. He will need to get some sort of cut come March but in my opinion he is the most likely challenger to the old guard. He's got an incredible record of only two defeats in an 11 race careers. His only beating was at the hands of Mikael D'Haganauet who could be the best novice in training. That was over 2m4f hurdle and Pandorama will be better over fences at staying distances. His one try over 3m resulted in the defeat of runaway RSA winner Weapons Amnesty. That form looks under valued and depending on his trainers plans 33/1 looks a very nice price for a very promising horse ready to take on the established Gold Cup standards.

Negs
Ground
Guaranteed start

I'm pressing up. Its risky but the price is too big.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante Post

Pandorama 1pt ew @ 50/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Nulty

King George IV

Kempton 3.00 (26/12/10)

Kempes 5pts ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Nulty

Wolverhampton 5.50

Bentley 1.5pts @ 11/2

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Wolverhampton 5.50

Bentley 1.5pts @ 11/2

This is plenty in response to my frustration at not being able to get on Leyte Gulf in the 5.20 :mad: I still reckon Bentley has a great chance in this. He's been shuffled 3 places closer to the rail with the non runners, off 53 and with the 5lbs claimer.

F***ing browser froze and missed the off.

Nulty

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Somersby 1pt ew @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Somersby 1pt ew @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

--Pressing Up--

Somersby 3pts ew @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

King George IV

Kempton 3.00 (26/12/10)

Kempes 5pts ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

I made this bet because I can be absolutely sure that if Kempes turns up at Kempton on Boxing Day, he definitely doesn't deserve to be 33/1. Since this bet is refunded if the horse doesn't run its a no brainer shot to nothing. His form is only really held up by a fit China Rock getting close to Kauto Star at Down Royal. As a novice Grade 1 winner though Kempes has taken to fences brilliantly and of his completed starts hasn't finished outside the first two. If he runs at Kempton it will be his first attempt outside novice company but he beat China Rock so comfortably that he will have a decent chance at Kempton. He jumps well, and has plenty of speed. He beat Riverside Theatre and Go Native over timber when only 7l behind Hurricane Fly at Punchestown.

I'm a believer in this horse far more over fences than I was as a hurdler. Depending on Fehilys recovery which from news reports seems to be coming along quickly, theres every chance that AP will take the ride for his boss.

argosy2006

That would be nice xmas present if it won,

Nulty

He's 50/1 now NRNB. I'm trying to remortgage the house

Gavin "shels"

Is Labrokes only doing the NRNB?

Nulty

Yeah, its only Ladbrokes. I read today that Mullins thinks that since Kempes hasn't had a run this year he's quite unlikely to go to Kempton. Thats probably the reason Ladbrokes lengthened the odds.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Haydock 2.20

Dance Island 2pts ew + 1pt Win @ 12/1 Lads

This one seems to be written off for some reason and is far longer in the betting than he should be imo. This is a seriously competitive race but there is no doubt where the value lies. Dance Island got to within 3l of Burton Port, rated 152OR and 9/1 for the Hennessy as we speak. DI also beat Take The Breeze rated 147OR by a head in the same race at Aintree and that horse had the beating of all but Massini's Maguire in a hot handicap at the end of October. Now, I've read that Dance Island may be on a stiff mark for his efforts in that race but is it not also true that he deserves to be higher than the 137OR he has been given? Level weights race at Aintree and OR just don't add up. The horse has had 2 chase starts and finished 1, 3, 2, He's had a spin over hurdles and should be spot on. The onl reason I can see for him to be a long price is the jockey and trainer combo. There is always going to be something about a horse trying to put you off a bet. I'll take this one

Coral Welsh National

Dance Island 2pts ew @ 16/1 VC

I never lie about where I get my inspiration for my bets and today is no different. I saw Tom Segal tipping up a horse I think is improving no end and is fairly under rated by many probably due to the trainer and jockey combo which isn't familiar to many people. I'm disappointed I wasn't paying attention to the market and missed the 33/1 but 16/1 is still a very reasonable price for a horse still rated 137 getting to within 3l of Burton Port at Aintree. He'll be effectively 3lbs out of the handicap but he's well ahead of the handicapper in my view and barring another like King Fontaine whose also very well handicapped he has an outstanding chance. I really am pissed off that Segal got there first. I wish he'd just keep his mouth shut

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante Post

Pandorama 2pt ew @ 33/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Going for a nice build up through a second-season chase this weekend at Down Royal and then taking on the Hennessey field that is likely to include Denman and Kauto Star. He'll get a nice weight in that if either of them start. He will need to get some sort of cut come March but in my opinion he is the most likely challenger to the old guard. He's got an incredible record of only two defeats in an 11 race careers. His only beating was at the hands of Mikael D'Haganauet who could be the best novice in training. That was over 2m4f hurdle and Pandorama will be better over fences at staying distances. His one try over 3m resulted in the defeat of runaway RSA winner Weapons Amnesty. That form looks under valued and depending on his trainers plans 33/1 looks a very nice price for a very promising horse ready to take on the established Gold Cup standards.

Negs
Ground
Guaranteed start

Nulty wrote: »

I'm pressing up. Its risky but the price is too big.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante Post

Pandorama 1pt ew @ 50/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Pandorama 5pts ew @ 50/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

I got a price for Pandorama from Ladbrokes for 50/1 NRNB and I ploughed into it again. His form in beating Weapons Amnesty is still just too good to ignore and I think the stiff 3m2f will be ideal. I reackon he'll either do enough between now and March to earn a place at Cheltenham or he won't and its a refund. Offer is too good to refuse.

Nulty

Kempton 3.40

Seek The Fair Land 1pt @ 15/2 VC

Horse proven on the all weather and in very good form since returning to the surface. He always runs well at lingfield and while it would be great if this race was staged at Lingfield, he has a 20%+ SR at Kempton. I* wanted to hold off on a bet until tomorrow when hoopefully he'll drift due to his poor stall position but he went from 8s to 15/2 just now and I don't want to miss that. I might press up tomorrow if he touches 10s. His stall position is the biggest worry but looking at the run styles of all the horse on his inside, there doesn't seem to be too much competition for the first 4 places on the pace so he won't have as difficult a time of getting a racing position as the poor draw might suggest. Theres a feew in here that are a little unpredictable and this may be an opportunity to geet some value in a reliable candidate. The form behind Arteus is nopt reflected in the price when Arteus was on the favoured near side at Lingfield. Wolverhampton is similar in that its better to attack on the near side. STFL should have the opportunity to do that.

Nulty

Wolverhampton 6.50

Sir Geoffrey 2pt @ 10/3 SkyBet

I was very impressed by his last effort when holding off Cape Vale Royal over course and distance for his new yard. I've been following the form of pisceans races fairly closely and fortunately it keeps working out on some level with almost all horses having performed well in that race coming out and running consistently well. Sir Geoffrey could take a lot of beating here

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Kempton 3.40

Seek The Fair Land 1pt @ 15/2 VC

Horse proven on the all weather and in very good form since returning to the surface. He always runs well at lingfield and while it would be great if this race was staged at Lingfield, he has a 20%+ SR at Kempton. I* wanted to hold off on a bet until tomorrow when hoopefully he'll drift due to his poor stall position but he went from 8s to 15/2 just now and I don't want to miss that. I might press up tomorrow if he touches 10s. His stall position is the biggest worry but looking at the run styles of all the horse on his inside, there doesn't seem to be too much competition for the first 4 places on the pace so he won't have as difficult a time of getting a racing position as the poor draw might suggest. Theres a feew in here that are a little unpredictable and this may be an opportunity to geet some value in a reliable candidate. The form behind Arteus is nopt reflected in the price when Arteus was on the favoured near side at Lingfield. Wolverhampton is similar in that its better to attack on the near side. STFL should have the opportunity to do that.

---Pressing Up---

Seek The Fair Land 1pt @ 10/1 Stan James/Betpack

Nulty

ARGH!

argosy2006

i thought he had it. so did he by looks of it.
hard luck

Nulty

So close...I put a lot of hope into that one. You build it up and its hard when it all comes toppling down :P

Juwwi

Unlucky he hit 1.06 in running.

Nulty

Wolverhampton 6.20

Clear Ice 2pts ew @ 14/1 PP (1/5 Odds, 3 Places, GP)

Looks over priced now the forecast favorite is out. He goes well on polytrack although both his wins came on fibresand. He well treated compared to the rest of these and has a 5lbs claim to go with it. Draw no problem and hopeful of a dewcent run at an exhorbitant price.

EDIT:
His record at Wolves uis 4,3,2,3 with the last two over the distance.