Fresh start

Nulty

235.Neptune Collonges | BD| 1 Win| 16/1| | +70.22
236.Neptune Collonges | BD| 2 ew| 16/1| | +66.22
237.Madison du Berlais| F| 1.5 ew| 16/1| | +63.22
238.Binocular | 3rd| 1 Win| 10/11| | +62.22
239.Tinshu | 4th| 1 Win| 7/1| | +61.22
240.Atlantic Story| 9th| 1 Win| 9/1| | +60.22
241.Piraya | 3rd| 2 Win| 11/1| | +58.22
241.Bentley | 4th| 1.5 Win| 11/2| | +56.72
242.Seek The Fair Land| 2nd| 1 Win| 15/2| | +55.22
243.Seek The Fair Land| 2nd| 1 Win| 10/1| | +54.22
244.Clear Ice | 7th| 2 ew| 14/1| | +50.22
245.Sir Geoffrey | 2nd| 2 Win| 3/1| | +48.22

Miserable time of it since the Hennessy. Luck needs to change quick.

Current Ante Post Bets =

*Kempes King George 5 ew @ 33/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

*Dance Island Welsh National 2 ew @ 16/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

*Pandorama Gold Cup 2 ew @ 33/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) [27/10/10]
*Pandorama Gold Cup 1 ew @ 50/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) [27/11/10]
*Pandorama Gold Cup 5 ew @ 50/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB) [27/11/10]


*Somersby QM Champ Chase 1 ew @ 20/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)
*Somersby QM Champ Chase 3 ew @ 20/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Mr E

Nulty wrote: »

*Kempes King George 5 ew @ 33/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Kempes is 66/1 on PP. No NRNB, but still double the price....

Nulty

Mr E wrote: »

Kempes is 66/1 on PP. No NRNB, but still double the price....

Nulty wrote: »

Yeah, its only Ladbrokes. I read today that Mullins thinks that since Kempes hasn't had a run this year he's quite unlikely to go to Kempton. Thats probably the reason Ladbrokes lengthened the odds.

Thanks Mr. E

I couldn't take twice the price not knowing if he was even intending to show up. I'd always take NRNB relative to the price I tjhink a horse would trade at on the day of the race. 33/1 is huge but double that is only the value of a run IMO. 33/1 is plenty big enough knowing I'll get a refund if something like what happened with Pandorama at Down Royal happens where hes withdrawn at the start with a mystery illness.

As the above quote describes though, Mullins doesn't expect Kempes to go to Kempton without a run so at this stage it looks as if my decision was correct thankfully. I'd always hope to get a run for my money! Next best thing is a refund.

Nulty

Lingfield 1.30

Copperwood 1pt ew @ 20/1 bet365

He does look to be in the grip of the handicapper somewhat but is still very consistent on the allweather. hes won three times at the track at 7f but is a strong finisher and has gone close over the mile before. The majority of his tries at the trip were when there was obviously something amiss a few years ago but it might even suit him these days to havethe extra furlong to race. He's a decent record with less than 9st on his back this year with all efforts gaining place money. hes drawn in 1 but he misses the break an awful lot and tends to sit mid div. The best scenario might be for him to miss the break but manage to get a place 2 off the rail and challenge down the outside. Small stakes, big price, competitive race. Hopefull.

Johner

I think id be close to tears with that. Beaten a nose, so unlucky mate cracking e/w pick though.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

I think id be close to tears with that. Beaten a nose, so unlucky mate cracking e/w pick though.

You could say that. I pressed up in Victor Chandler just before the race so I actually had 2.5pts ew on....can be thankful it wasn't a loser

(There is no emoticon for how I feel :P, well now there is)

Nulty

I forgot to mention I had a bet in the 1.20 at Southwell while I was in there and took Gracies Gift @ 5/1. But having read the paper again when I sat down I saw Takejan was 7lbs better off for his last run...too late to change - another loser

Nulty

Very frustrating

Bank: 51.22

Nulty

Lingfield 2.20

Mafeking 2pts ew @ 14/1 VC (1/5 Odds, 3 Places, GP)

Very competitive race again and heres a horse that isbigger than he ought to be provided he turns up in good order. Its something everybet relies on so nothing out of the ordinary there... horses have to want to - or be willing to - win. Anyway the disparity in the prices is too big in my view. Looking back at some of his races before his time away from the track it seems that he wants dropping back in trip. His ability to win at 10f is strongly dependent on the competitiveness of the race and who he has taking him on for the lead. It's hard for a horse to be taken on for the lead over a distance that he only just about gets. Hes won at a mile in his early days and still has plenty of pace. Over the trip he'll need a strong pace ad he is in the advantageous position where he can make that pace for himsself. The Fifth Member looks the only one to take him on for the lead and hes drawn 4 stalls to the outside of Mafeking so the rail is safe if he breaks. The Fifth Member has never won beyond a mile so Mafeking can put him to the test.

Hes dropped 3lbs for his respectable pipeopeners since his break and should be primed for this. If he's ready to give his best he should be well capable of holding out for a place from his position on the pace being able to see out the trip.Jockey and trainer are the sacraficial stats here with both without a winner for some time but....wow - I've never seen any one with a -1000 Level stakes loss before but Chris Catlin has achieved that feat on the all weather in the last five years despite finishing in the first 3 28% of the time! A more comforting piece of statistical evidence shows the horse finished in the first three 58% of his career all-weather starts often being headed on the line.

I've written way too much...He's got a really good chance if he's ready.

Nulty

Southwell 1.00

Lenny Bee 2pts @ 4/1 Will Hill (GP)

Fancied him last time he ran but took a bigger priced horse Lewyn instead. Didn't matter cause neither would have returned anything!. He ran a blinder there to reverse form with subsequent winner and red hot Piscean. Its arguable that Piscean didn't get the run of the race that day but their form ties in together and Lenny im sure to be winning one soon. This is a tough race with two last time out winners and some track specialists. Some of the things going against Lenny Bee is his lack of experience on the surface. Hes by Kyllachy though just like Luscivious in the race and hes a track specialist. Kyllachys generally do pretty well on the surface especially over sprint trips (this is 5f) and to add to it Lenny Bees Dam won at the track. There seems to be plenty in his favour today not least his sweet draw in 2.

Inexperienced jockey takes 7lbs off too.

Nulty

Can't say i'm not disapointed with Lenny Bee. Pace fell apart and the two who were well off it took 1st and 3rd. Bonnie Prine Blue did well to keep 2nd. I'll still back Lenny Bee gain next time.

I'll be honest, I forgot Southwell had a straight 5f course. I reckon Lenny Bee doesn't perform on a straight track - at least thats my excuse for now :P
Well actually he won at Newmarket...so thats probably not an excuse....

Nulty

It didn't pan out like I expected but The Fifth Member was burned off by the turn and Mafeking wasn't rushed up to lead. Looked like he enjoyed that.

Only 8 ran so 1/4 Odds and Rule 4 works out at 43/4 or 10.75/1

Bank: 76.1

argosy2006

well done great pick,
i used this 2.20 race in my system as you clearly thought your pick was going to win

Nulty

argosy2006 wrote: »

well done great pick,
i used this 2.20 race in my system as you clearly thought your pick was going to win

Well I didn't think he was going to win but I know what you mean. Like I said, he had a very good chance of winning and the odds available were wrong. I've dropped into your thread from time to time and glad to see its doing very well but I still don't under stand when you back the horses in your system. Is it right before the off or in the morning or what?

argosy2006

Nulty wrote: »

Well I didn't think he was going to win but I know what you mean. Like I said, he had a very good chance of winning and the odds available were wrong. I've dropped into your thread from time to time and glad to see its doing very well but I still don't under stand when you back the horses in your system. Is it right before the off or in the morning or what?

no not in morning,first i study races try to pick a couple that have a vunerable favourite and some decent horses in race to,
then basically i lay favourite, not back him to lose !, i just take him out of card, pretend its not there,
then just before race starts i go on to betfair few mins before race, pick next three in market by looking at exchange, they can change quickly so i wait, 20 - 50 secs before they go, by this time next three are easily established ,
click the three horses next in market on racecard not on exchange,as you need to get bet on,not wait for things to match so on, as its just before off, no time for matching bets,
so now i have three well backed horse on my side to take on favourite,
which seems to give me a great strike rate,
have you noticed that when a favourite loses its nearly always by one of the next three in market, thats how thing idea was started,
and on bf i get some of the 2 pts i throw away every race back, as a 13-2 sp winner is sometimes 9.20 bf :eek:
and even tom segal has put up three in same race from time to time,
so why not all the time if it yeilds profit,
i,m up 43 pts, i could walk away for rest of month, try get another 43 pts in january,

Nulty

Kempton 5.50

Guildenstern 1pt ew @ 12/1 SportingBet

3lbs lower than last winning mark. Last 5 wins came with Jimmy Quinn on board, 3 of them at Kempton and all of them at todays trip. Drift is a big worry but drifters can win and theres just too much to like about him. Hold up horse will be dropped out so wide draw not a worry. Big field increases chances of strong pace to run at. Only 8-11 on his back making him nottom weight.

Nulty

Damn these 11th hour selections! Draw did him no favours...he was way too far back to win. In the tracker for a 7f race at Kemp or Wol.

Bank: 74.1

Nulty

Kempton 6.30

Quasi Congaree 1pt ew & 2pts Win @ 16/1 Bet365

Hes won 2 races from 19 races - hardly brilliant but it doesn't matter what hes won in the past, its more about can he win this? I think he can, or well at least I think hes a much bigger price than he should be. There are a few in here with solid claims and they are reliable in their performances which makes them entitled to a shorter price. Another reason Quasi is a long price is the fact he blew out in a race involving Lujeanie and Hatta Stream last time out. He can be forgiven that run for the hugely wide trip he took and the way he blew the turn. after his chance was gone he wasn't pushed out so the distance is irrelevant.

There appears to be a pattern to his performances though. One good run then one bad followed by a good and then another bad run. Having got the bad one out of the way last time he might be relied upon to deliver an effort. Hes run well at the track and Ian Wood has opted not to go with a claimer, which hes done in the past, which suggests to me that he thinks the horse can win off his current mark and I think so too.

Another encouraging piece of information is that Quasi has gotten the plumb draw in stall 7 and its clear that he likes to be up on the pace so hes positioned to attack that. His back form is very good too. His penultimate start saw him finish 2nd to the inform Anne of Kiev whos form lines are reliable and tested in this thread, and in behind Quasi was next time out winner Mango Music, winner of a Seller yesterday Brandywell Boy and behind him was Hulcote Rose - winner of 2 subsequent handicaps and behind her was Hinton Admiral - winner of a handicap yesterday at Lingfield. In total the horses from that race have contested 12 times and won 5. Thats farly decent form if you ask me. But its not about that - its about the price. Quasi Congaree shouldn't be 16/1 if he decides to perform and but that may be a big if.

Nulty

Kempes not entered in the King George IV Chase but NRNB means no liability. 10pts are safe.

Nulty

1pt profit from the place

Bank: 75.1

Nulty

Cheltenham 12.10

Reve de Sivola 1pts @ 9/2 VC (GP)


Class animal over hurdles and wasn't disgraced on his first go over fences. Sure he hit the first and made a mistake further on but on the whole he jumped reasonably well and I think he just got tired. He will need to improve his jumping but thats entirely possible on only his second try. Hes probably not the most likely winner of the race and that obviously goes to the favorite who was lobbing alone last time before falling. While there are worries about Reve De Sivolas jumping, he did make it around the course in one piece and you cant win a race when you fall.

The others have 5 or 8lbs penalties to contend with and while I think Reve De Sivola has a good chance of winning I reckon Spirit Rivers chances are better provided he stands up. I can't back a horse that fell last time at 11/8 with so many unexposed horses running against him. His price is making Reves price and that of another....


Othermix 1.5pts @ 10/1 StanJames

Othermix beat home Reve De Sivola last time and it was mostly down to his jumping. He has a massive advantage over the rest of the field in that he has had 7 races over compared to a maximum of two for the rest. He hasn't been racing to the level he reached last year but remains a capable contender and at 10/1 an attractive bet.

Nulty

AP December Gold Cup

Cheltenham 2.30 Saturday

Psycho 1pt ew @ 10/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Nulty

Nice win there but the form will be very suspect. Very messy race.

Now to enjoy the rest of the racing without the strees of a bet!

3pts profit

Bank: 78.1

Nulty

Lingfield 1.35

Billy Red 2pts @ 7/1 Bet365

Hes come back to the all weather with a big price place effort last time. He was closing like a train then over 5f. While hes won at that distance at other tracks he only won at 6f at Lingfields all weather track. His last all weather win was off a mark of 83 and hes at 85 now so its very possible hes well treated on the poly despite his age. that came behind the very progressive Piscean whos gone on the win plenty of races since and makes the selection worth chancing at a track he likes and a distance hes capable at.

Worry is that the early prices have drifted and so I'm going in with cautious stakes.

x PyRo

Nice shout with Reve De Sivola mate. Wouldn't of given him a cat in hells chance, but I'm always wrong anyways!

Your results of late have been top notch. Keep it up.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Nice shout with Reve De Sivola mate. Wouldn't of given him a cat in hells chance, but I'm always wrong anyways!

Your results of late have been top notch. Keep it up.

I kept the faith and forgave him. He didn't do anything spectacular today but he got a round in one piece which is more than can be said for the favorite.

I'm struggling with the 11.40 tomorrow...impossible to get a handle on. Think I'll just pass it over

Nulty

Cheltenham 12.45

Robo 1pt ew @ 18/1 Will Hill

I backed him for small stakes on his last run and was blown away by what he did. Of course it was a much weaker field than what he faces here but for every length he went away I kept on in my suprise. He won effortlessly that day (stating the obvious) and is entitled to take his chance here. The level of improvement hes shown over fences is amazing and in a race like this I'm willing to take a chance on him at relatively big odds. He still very young and while that race fell into his lap he showed much improvement in his jumping that day. This race has two of the very fancied horses for the RSA and that makes it competitive, Robo will find thing tough but may find enough to do himself justice as a totally unexposed chaser.

Nulty

Probably about time I had a bad day.

Robo ran well but wasn't up to it. Best news all day was seeing him walking into the paddock after collapsing after the race.

Billy Red ran well but went too fast. Probably beaten by better horses but after a lay off may be worth another go.

Psycho just didn't go at all. Don't know what to do with him.

Somersby will have it hard no matter where he goes. Poquelin in the Ryanair and Master Minded in the Champion...much of a muchness. Bets still live imo though

Nulty

Hong Kong Vase

Sha Tin 6.00

Redwood 1pt ew @ 10/1 Blue Square (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

He just so consistent and he has been improving consistently right up to winning the Northern Dancer and finishing very strongly in the Canadian International.

Nulty

Hong Kong Sprint

Sha Tin 6.40

Rocket Man 1pt @ 7/2 VC

Little Bridge 1pt ew @ 16/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)