Fresh start

Bumsex

Nulty wrote: »

I reeally shouldn't be betting on horses at this time of year.

End of an era...

just seen you backed him as well,at a crazy price if you dont mind me saying,just wondering what you think left him down today,different opinions going around,id like to hear yours..
thanks

Nulty

Bumsex wrote: »

just seen you backed him as well,at a crazy price if you dont mind me saying,just wondering what you think left him down today,different opinions going around,id like to hear yours..
thanks

Its over...hes finally come to the end of his career. He's 11 and after last years win it looks like hes just regressed. He was too handy too, never seen him run that prominant but I haven't seen his early career races. He looked fine before the race but never looked to be travelling. Ruby never needed to touch the horse last year and McCoy had to shake the reins very early.

He's 12s for the Gold Cup now with Will Hill.

I did the faller insurance today because I thought that thump he took at the last was going to take him down...lost money but glad he didn't fall...(kind of :P)

Bumsex

Nulty wrote: »

Its over...hes finally come to the end of his career. He's 11 and after last years win it looks like hes just regressed. He was too handy too, never seen him run that prominant but I haven't seen his early career races. He looked fine before the race but never looked to be travelling. Ruby never needed to touch the horse last year and McCoy had to shake the reins very early.

He's 12s for the Gold Cup now with Will Hill.

thanks,my exact thoughts too.
its hard to see him go though,as i grew up with his name ringing in my ear,was also one of my first bets..

Nulty

Kauto had an infection apparently...still cant have him for the GC even at 10s. at 11 yo how can he be relied upon to turn up in top nick?


Lingfield 1.20

I Confess 2pts @ 9/2 PP

Got 7lbs claimer on whose won a few already for Dave Evans and with the horse in such good form lately its hard to get away from it running best at the weights in this claimer.

Nulty

I Confess nearly covers Kauto blow out, more needed to keep head above water. (Must be selective!)

Its been 55 bets since the Table of Shame has been posted. Current Ante Post bets will follow

Horse|Result|Stakes|Price|Extra Info|P/L
246.Copperwood | 2nd| 1 ew| 20/1| | +51.22
247.Lenny Bee | 4th| 2 Win| 4/1| | +49.22
248.Mafeking | 1st| 2 ew| 10.75/1| | +76.1
249.Guildenstern | 6th| 1 ew| 12/1| | +74.1
250.Quasi Congaree | 2nd| 1 ew| 16/1| | +77.1
251.Quasi Congaree | 2nd| 2 Win| 16/1| | +75.1
252.Qusi Congaree | 2nd| 2 Win| 16/1| | +75.1
253.Reve De Sivola | 1st| 1 Win| 9/2| | +79.6
254.Othermix | F| 1.5 Win| 10/1| | +78.1
255.Billy Red | 5th| 2 Win| 7/1| | +76.1
256.Robo | 4th| 1 ew| 18/1| | +74.1
257.Psycho | PU| 1 ew| 10/1| | +72.1
258.Redwood | 2nd| 1 ew| 10/1| | +73.6
259.Rocket Man | 2nd| 1 Win| 10/1| | +71.6
260.Little Bridge | 8th| 1 ew| 16/1| | +69.6
261.Glass Harmonium | 8th| 1 ew| 33/1| | +67.6
262.Glass Harmonium | 8th| .5 ew| 100/1| | +66.6
263.Street Devil | 8th| .5 ew| 22/1| | +65.6
264.Carloswayback | 5th| -| 11/2| .5 ew Dbls| -
264.Hurricane Fly | 1st| -| 11/4| +| -
264.Glencove Marina | 5th| -| 8/1| +| -
264.Jessies Dream | 1st| -| 9/2| +| -
264.Kempes | 3rd| -| 11/1| +| +74.6
265.Whispering Spirit | 6th| 3 Win| 5/1| | +71.6
266.Seek The Fair Land |6th| 1 ew| 13/2| | +69.6
267.Billy Red | 3rd| 1 Win| 9/1| | +68.6
268.Kipchak | 3rd| 1 Win| 8/1| | +67.6
269.Healys Bar | PU| 1 ew| 18/1| | +65.6
270.Notre Pere | PU| 1 Win| 8/1| | +63.6
271.Golden Silver | 2nd| 5 Win| 7/4| | +58.6
272.Stewards House | PU| 1 ew| 33/1| | +56.6
273.Court In Motion | 2nd| 1 Win| 9/2| | +55.6
274.Feeling Foxy | 1st| -| -| | +
274.Vhujon | 4th| -| -| 0.5 RFC| +54.6
275.Quasi Congaree | 6th| 1.25 Win| 11/1| | +53.35
276.Sway | 6th| 3 ew| 6/1| | +47.35
277.Duke Of Lucca | 5th| 1 Win| 11/1| | +46.35
278.Sir Geoffrey | 3rd| | 5/2| | +
278.Salden Licht | 1st| | 3/1| 1 Dbl| +45.35
279.Dance Island | PU| 2 Win| 16/1| | +43.35
280.Magic Sky | PU| 1 ew| 50/1| | +41.35
281.Healys Bar | 3rd| 1 Win| 10/1| | +40.35
282.Magnaminity | 1st| 2 Win| 11/2| (R4 10/3)| +46.95
283.Whodouthink | 23rd| 0.5 ew| 20/1| | +45.95
284.Tijuana Dancer | 11th| 2.5 ew| 10/1| | +40.95
285.Flying Squad | 1st| 1.5 ew| 8/1| | +55.95
286.Olympian | 11th| 1 ew| 10/1| | +53.95
287.Kieltys Folly | 6th| 1 Win| 15/2| | +52.95
288.Bedarra Boy | 2nd| 2 Win| 5/1| | +50.95
289.Teddys Reflection | 2nd| 0.8 Win| 9/2| | +50.15
290.Palos Conti | 6th| 4 Win| 13/8| | +46.15
291.Feeling Foxy | 2nd| 3 Win| 5/1| | +43.15
292.Invincible Ash | 5th| 2 win| 8/1| | +41.15
293.Bankable | 4th| 1 win| 9/1| | +40.15
294.Lockstown | 4th| 1 win| 11/2| | +38.15
295.Indian Violet | 6th| 1 ew| 9/1| | +36.15
296.Kauto Star | 3rd| 5 Win| 1/1| | +31.15
297.Kauto Star | 3rd| 5 Win| 8/15| | +26.15
398.I Confess | 1st| 2 Win| 9/2| | +35.15

Nulty

Meydan 5.45

Forrest Crown .5pts ew @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

I won on her last year at York or Windsor last year (long straight from the left) Nottingham and she has been progressing well. 1/2 length from 11/4 2nd fav on last start and could be over priced here

Nulty

Taunton 3.00

Bedarra Boy 1pt @ 11/4 Will Hill

Wanted to check the market this morning but forgot. Thought he and Baseball Ted would switch positions in the market but my memory cost me 10/3 and 11/4 is best available. Tries hard and may be needs to commit before the other runners. Jockey Daryl Jacob thinks hes a good shout but will need to get the ride just right.

Nulty

Victor Chandler Chase

Without Master Minded Market

Petit Robin 2pts @ 3/1 VC

Always runs a good race and wants it with a bit of give. Has good course form and twice second behind MM here t Ascot. Don't think there will be any value in doing the straight forecast, that will be pretty popular and the return is unlikely to be better than playing PR in the With out market. Somersby still may not show up so theres value there. It is a NRNB but I magine the R4 will be handy if Somersby comes out at around 8/1 and the market without will collapse. Best to get the bet in with R4 than with a reformed market. Barry Geraghty is booked for PR instead of Mad Max - another positive.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Taunton 3.00

Bedarra Boy 1pt @ 11/4 Will Hill

Wanted to check the market this morning but forgot. Thought he and Baseball Ted would switch positions in the market but my memory cost me 10/3 and 11/4 is best available. Tries hard and may be needs to commit before the other runners. Jockey Daryl Jacob thinks hes a good shout but will need to get the ride just right.

What a ride! Must have been an acrobat in a previous life.

Bumsex

Nulty wrote: »

Taunton 3.00

Bedarra Boy 1pt @ 11/4 Will Hill

Wanted to check the market this morning but forgot. Thought he and Baseball Ted would switch positions in the market but my memory cost me 10/3 and 11/4 is best available. Tries hard and may be needs to commit before the other runners. Jockey Daryl Jacob thinks hes a good shout but will need to get the ride just right.

Well done,,

Great spot in regards value,backed into clear favorite in the end and looked good throughout..
got on myself at 2/1,saw that it was still good value as betfair were going 2.74 when bet365 were 2/1,also got help from olbg as there were good write ups there too,all favouring your selection and mine

NaiveMelodies

Nulty wrote: »

What a ride! Must have been an acrobat in a previous life.

Did very well to stay on board! Delighted

Nulty

Jacob did the right thing in committing before the others. Horse seems to tank along so doesn't need a lead. earlier hes in front the better for his chances.

Nulty

only1stevo wrote: »

Did very well to stay on board! Delighted

I remember Ruby gave a similarly brilliant ride on Tito Bustillo over fences earlier this year, but the horse was never gonna win. Happy to after-time that I backed the winner in that race :P

No, Pepe Simo it was and Harry Tricker the winner

Heres the race...login to ATR

NaiveMelodies

Nulty wrote: »

I remember Ruby gave a similarly brilliant ride on Tito Bustillo over fences earlier this year, but the horse was never gonna win. Happy to after-time that I backed the winner in that race :P

No, Pepe Simo it was

Screenshot.. ha.. Tito Bustillo fancied in the half 3, what you reckon?

Johner

I'd prefer Santuaire at the prices.

Bumsex

only1stevo wrote: »

Screenshot.. ha.. Tito Bustillo fancied in the half 3, what you reckon?

wouldnt go near at that price..
claims could be made for nearly all horses,

Sircozy at around the 11/1 mark would be my bet as its great value,improved in every race since committing to hurdles,the nicholls horses are also going to be giveing weight to her as well,outside chance imo..

Nulty

I never looked at the race in great depth, Ciceron form in last three races looks decent. Not one I think I could figure out with much success. Looks very open. The lack of support for Sircozy would put me off at this late stage. Dave Evens doesn't let them go off at that price if he can help it.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Victor Chandler Chase

Without Master Minded Market

Petit Robin 2pts @ 3/1 VC

Always runs a good race and wants it with a bit of give. Has good course form and twice second behind MM here t Ascot. Don't think there will be any value in doing the straight forecast, that will be pretty popular and the return is unlikely to be better than playing PR in the With out market. Somersby still may not show up so theres value there. It is a NRNB but I magine the R4 will be handy if Somersby comes out at around 8/1 and the market without will collapse. Best to get the bet in with R4 than with a reformed market. Barry Geraghty is booked for PR instead of Mad Max - another positive.

Maybe should have waited...

Victor Chandler Chase

Without Master Minded Market

Petit Robin 2pts @ 4/1 ToteSport

UrbanSea

Are you having 4 points on Petit Robin Nulty or just the two at 4/1?I was thinking Mad Max. Crack Away Jack could be very interesting back after a while off. Emma Lavelle's horses are in great nick.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Are you having 4 points on Petit Robin Nulty or just the two at 4/1?I was thinking Mad Max. Crack Away Jack could be very interesting back after a while off. Emma Lavelle's horses are in great nick.

4pts - 2pts @ 3/1, 2pts @ 4/1. Money was already down....

I'm tempted by Crack Away Jack alright. 13/2 in the w/o market. Rather wait until the day and see if theres support for it.

UrbanSea

Was also thinking of a double on Hurricane Fly and Master Minded. But can't back any Nicholls' horse at the minute,but seems to be having a few better runs in the last few days.

Nulty

Forest Crown (5th) looked to be pulling hard and didn't finish his race but no complaints. Best horses finished at the front.

Nulty

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Solwhit 1pt ew @ 12/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)

Will fill this out later...

Nulty

Wolverhampton 6.50

Bathwick Scanno 0.5pts ew @ 33/1 VC

Nulty

Bathwick Scanno delivered a place. Quit while your ahead!...Like Follow The Flag in the last at Wolves but not betting him.

Bank: +39.7

Nulty

Peter Marsh Chase

Haydock 3.15 (Sat)

Palypso de Creek 1pt ew @ 14/1 PP

Take The Breeze 1pt ew @ 10/1 PP

Reverse Forecast .5pts

I'm ruling the top two in the betting out for a start. King Fontaine is chucked up in the weights after beating Dance Island. He was well enough handicapped but a 15lbs rise looks plenty enough that he shouldn't be so short in this race. Maktu had a very tough race in the Welsh National only two weeks ago. He didn't stay the trip in the conditions and having travelled so far he must have been legless and that doesn't seem right at 5/1.

Palypso de Creek was backed heavily last time at Haydock and tipped by Pricewise. He travelled well enough before falling but he has shown that he can get around Haydock finishing 2nd to Our Vic in this race last year. At 14/1 hes a big price because hes come down in the weights so much. He was put up 4lbs for that run and is now 4lbs lower than that run. 8lbs better off than the handicapper assessed for that performance. Hes been out of sorts lately but the money last time suggests hes not forlorn and David Pipe could be aiming for this race that got away from him last year.

Paul Nicholls horses are allegedly out of form but I can over look that stat beacuse some of his horses are winning and they are bound to turn the corner soon. Take The Breeze looks a solid bet here. Hes won 4 of his 9 chases starts in Britain and Ireland and placed in two others. He was beaten twice over 2m whish was far too short for him and then once at Cheltenham over 21f. As a French horse he appears to prefer cut in the ground and he'll get that at Haydock. He was staying on at Aintree behind Burton Port on good ground and probably would have challenged the winner under different ground conditions.

These two are very interesting here at their prices and I would kick myself if I didn't do a forecast.

Nulty

Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run 4pts ew @ 16/1 Stan James

The horse that decieves. He needs good ground - fact. Trainer says it and more importantly the form and our eyes say it. Hes won 8 races (3 Grade 1s) since March 2007. Thats a little devieving even...the first of those was over timber....all of his chase wins bar 1 have come on good ground, the other was on the better side of good to soft. 3 wins at Cheltenham including this race last year mean he fits the profile for course specialists in the Ryanair. Also 2 of the 5 winners of the race have been 10yo and its slightly moot including last years win by a 9yo - that being the AR.

The horse came out of the King George fine according to Jonjo. I've been mulling the bet over and decided to make it now instead of after the Betfair Ascot Chase. He ran well there last year finishing second to Monets Garden and we know Monets Garden wasn't past it or anything having come out and win the Old Roan this season beating Poquelin. Depending on what turns up on the day at Ascot he could get much shorter. SJ are top price now at 16s with the next best 12s generally. Hes definitely aimed at the race and having won it well last year its a little bit of a silly price already. If it pours down on Ascot before the Betfair then he could go longer. In that case, I might press up if he goes to 25s but thats being very optimistic.

Poquelin is a massive danger and he will be around 3/1 on the day and rightly so. His December Gold Cup win was incredible. A saver on him could be on the cards. Tranquil Sea won the Paddy Power last year and has to be a good chance along with J'Vole but they aren't 16s. Serious value to be had.

Letyourselfgo

Hi Nulty I stuck this up here but I'll delete the post if you want, I think your table does the same job.


Number of bets|Horse|Result|BSP|Total P/L
297|Kauto star|3rd|1.74|26.15|
298|I confess|1st|3.47|35.15|
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Nulty

Lingfield 3.05

Aflaam 1pt @ 8/1 Ladbrokes

Dropping in the weights and has been the highest rated of these. Trainer is in for and Aflaam won a 1m race on this card last year off 2lbs lower. He went on to win another two races later. Last race he was tried again at 10f where he was 3rd in a seller but showed enough for Harris to put him in a handicap at this distance. Getting older he may be better suited to the extra distance and with form at the track he looks a decent shout at a decent price in a poor race. Top two in the betting are in form but may have run out their handicapping edge while Aflaam looks ready to start his.

Nulty

Dismal selection...I overlooked the 1st and second in favour of a bigger price. I'm an idiot