Fresh start

UrbanSea

Nice calls Nulty

x PyRo

Great work today dude. Class act.

Nulty

Weatherbys Bumper

Cousin Khee 1pt ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Nulty

I didn't get a chance to give a reason due to the time but I fancied he'd go well with a flat sire, his relative form against Cinders and Ashes and Keys. He was only just a 4yo then and still is obviously. Appeared as though the better ground would help him. Ran a respectable race but probably a little immature. He traveled really well but couldn't pick up on the turn for home.

Profit: 139.05

Nulty

Ryanair Chase

Roberto Goldback 4pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

Jessica Harrington has been in excellent form with her big guns lately. Roberto Goldback is astonishingly good value here. His form ties in closely with Tranquil Sea and J'y Vole and he is not very far off their level. J'y Vole will get an extra 2lbs in Britain than she would if she was racing against the boys in Ireland but that isn't an insurmountable for RG to overcome. He rarely runs on ground better than soft and his last defeat came in ground he didn't like against a horse that loves it. It'll be his first visit to Cheltenham but he jumps well enough to assume he can get around, the only worry will be the speed that they go at. As long as he's not forced out of his comfort zone then he must have a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Nulty

Jewson Novices Chase

Bouggler 2pts ew @ 20/1 Laddbrokes (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)

The Bouuggler is a very decent horse and must surely be over priced here. He put it right up to Wymott when they met last time and jumped perfectly well except for one slight error. It was publicly made clear that the horse had broken a blood vessel through that race and lost his ability quickly when seemingly travelling vvery well over the eventual winner. He did well to stay within 10l of Wymott under the circumstances. He has no issue with the ground and is a very highly rated hurdler in his own right. 20/1 is under-estimating his chance. I'm already on Loosen My Load for 3pts ew at 14/1 but didn't post it here cause I forgot but I'd still be very happy with 20s about his horse. I can't see why Mr Thriller is rated 150 TBH.

UrbanSea

I think Roberto Goldback is totally forgotten about in the race, I don't know how many times I've backed that horse.

Nulty

Pertemps Final

Duke Of Lucca 1pt ew @ 28/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

He has had a big weight to lump around here in December and finished really well behind Lush Life and Barewell Bridge. The ground has come right for him and now carrying 8lbs less I reckon hes overpriced. He's just a 6yo but it seems like he's been around a while. He is a very good horse with form at Cheltanham and he has 4lbs on Lush Life now and 2lbs on Barewell Bridge. He can get into the places at least.

Nulty

Byrne Group Plate

Edgbriar 1pt @ 14/1 Bet365

Course and ground form. has a decent chance

Nulty

Profit: 124.05

Nulty

County Hurdle

Ski Sunday 1pt ew @ 14/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

Its an impossible race and I don't for once second think I've found the winner. The thing drawing me to Ski Sunday is the number of winners that came out of his last race. Karky Schultz, Skint, Via Galilei etc. That brings Zanir into calculations of course. Ski Sunday Has finished 2nd in the Fred Winter in 2009 and has finished behind Walkon at Aintree by 13l but he beat Starluck by a similar distance in that race. Assuming Ski Sunday can make the same progression as those two, he must be a few pounds better than his mark. Zanir is a much bigger price but Ski Sunday is much less exposed and arguably has better back form in the book. I'm not really interested in trying to find a diamond in the rough in a 26 runner, 2 mile handicap at Cheltenham. These are the most competitive hurdle races of the season and its so rare that a winner of 20/1+ happens that they're almost not worth looking for in the first place. Ski Sunday could be much better than what he's shown

Nulty

Ski Sunday was too keen early and couldn't get home up the hill. Would have been hard pushed to trouble the front two regardless

Nulty

Alfred Bartlett

Kilcrea Kim 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365

Ground, experience and speed in his favour. Will take some beating

Nulty

Monetary Fund

Son Of Flicka

Both 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

Nulty

Ouch. Half a length. Another heartbreaker at the festival....:)

Nulty

Fiendish Flame @ 50/1

Nomecheki @ 25/1

Both 1pt ew @ Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

Nulty

May aswell have been non runners. :pac:

Profit: 121.05

Nulty

Midlands National

Bench Warrent 2pts ew @ 20/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Jumping has been his problem mostly and he's fallen twice this season. He's managed to get around the course the last 3 times though and ever since coming down in the Welsh National this must have been the aim. he came down 4 out at Chepstow and he was traveling well. He looks a dour stayer like the favorite Synchronised. He's probably not as classy as that one but he carries only 9-11 and is 1 pound out of the handicap. With such a tiny weight the horse should be able to concentrate more on his jumping. This is the furthest he's gone but judging by his efforts over shorter and how he was going in the Wellsh National, the 34f he faces today should suit. He was simply out classed in a graduation chase recently and his latest effort was respectable. I can't watch that race though. Theres an extra 5f in this race and I don't doubt that Bench Warrent can stay the trip. He could be a big price at 20/1

Nulty

Midlands National

Ballyfitz 1pt ew @ 18/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Staying in all his previous recent races it looks like Ballyfitz is going to get the extra half mile he needs to trouble the judge. His jumping isn't great but the fractionally slower gallop in this race may give him time to get over the fences better. The trainers form is a bit of a worry but he's been unlucky more than anything lately and at the festival. The Midlands National could be the unlikely source of a much needed win for NTD

Nulty

Bench Warrent has exhausted all avenues for me now and I won't be backing him again in a hurry.

Ballyfitz needs another 5 miles to win by the looks of things. EW landed for an overall .5pts loss.

Profit: 120.55

Nulty

Lingfield 4.05

Ocean Legend 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365

Couple of pounds better with Buateoir for a nose beating. Gone up 3 for winning bu G. Downing takes that off and won on one of Tony Carrolls yesterday. His efforts have been getting consistently better through the winter and stands a good chance here.

Nulty

Lingfield 5.15

Ajjaadd 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365

Steve Drowne has won twice on Ajjaadd and once at Lingfield over CD. The hrse is at his best at 5f and will be coming late hopefully sling shotting wide. Pace provided by Freddies Girl. He was catching that one two starts back and off a break could come fresh. Many of these are disappointing regularly and Ajjaadd is the best angle into the race.

Nulty

All the bets today are actually double stakes cause I've doubled my unit stake.

Profit: 116.05

Now

Profit: 58

Nulty

Newton Abbott 3.45

Fin Vin de Lieu @ 7/4

Curragh 4.05

Termagant @ 3/1

1pt Double @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Southwell 3.30 Kingaroo 1pt at 5/1 will hill

Nulty

Fin Vin de Leu won but Termagant finished 4th, should have backed the Stack runner in hindsight - obviously since he won!

Kingaroo gave a real good run for the money but was well held by the sweet travelling Beau Fighter.

Profit: 56

UrbanSea

Hey Iain I don't get this.

Since points don't differ change when stake is changed,why did you half your points,even if you did double your stake? Points would remain the same.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Hey Iain I don't get this.

Since points don't differ change when stake is changed,why did you half your points,even if you did double your stake? Points would remain the same.

Your right, it doesn't really make sense. I was trying to keep track of my profit in actual terms but on reflection it doesn't make sense.

Profit: 112

I was going too quit this but it really does make a difference in my betting. its a real motivator. I find myself not being that bothered to read form since stopping. If anyone wants to comment on my selections please do. I'd love to hear why you think my selections won't win. It makes the thread more interesting from a selfish point of view. Contradictory points of view are welcome.

Catterick 2.50

Lindoro 1pt @ 9/1


Catterick 3.20

Baltimore Clipper 1pt @ 7/1

Prices taken last night.

longshotvalue

Bit of a Tipster race in the 2:50 at Catterick

You have Lindoro, i have Masked Dance and pyro has Dazeen..

Good luck to all

Nulty

Well done aidan.

Baltimore Clipper a non-runner.

Profit: 111