Fresh start

Nulty

Wolverhampton 8.45

On The Cusp 1pt @ 12/1 VC

Nulty

Musselburgh 3.20

Highland Warrior 2pts @ 8/1

Loves the track, forget his age, Trainer has won it last twice, draw is good and everything looks primed for a big run.

Nulty

Musselburgh 4.20

Snow Bay 1pt @ 7/1

Nicholls has held onto him after winning a claimer in France. Has reached decent levels of performance regularly enough in the past and should strip fitter than most of these.

Nulty

Stratford 2.10

Grandads Horse 2pts @ 9/2

Good on the flat and will progress

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Musselburgh 4.20

Snow Bay 1pt @ 7/1

Nicholls has held onto him after winning a claimer in France. Has reached decent levels of performance regularly enough in the past and should strip fitter than most of these.

Jesus,I didn't know he'd gone to 12/1. Good call.

Nulty

Spring Mile

Dance and Dance 1pt ew @ 16/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

DAD won't like it too fast so will appreciate the watering during the week. Never mind the comments from Taqleeds connections, they're making excuses already and made some earlier today aswell. Going stick readings put the ground at genuinely Good. Although a shower in the morning wouldn't be sniffed at. DAD beat leading fancy Gunner Lindley last term at the same time as disposing of Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap over 8f on Soft ground. He's won and placed in both his starts at a mile, Adam Beschizza takes 5lbs off putting him inn the bottom tier of the weights. He's drawn on what appears to be the less favoured side but has Manassas on the rail who won this two years ago and goes off at a decent pace and Camerooney who has led a big field in the past. Tentative as is possible in a race like this but the each-way terms are great.

Nulty

Cammidge Trophy

Doncaster 2.35

Iver Bridge Lad 2pts @ 13/2 Ladbrokes

Running in top form and predictably leaving last years form behind. I reckon he's better than his win record suggests and theres more to come from him. He has been rekindled by the trip to the desert and will be fitter than most of these. Charltons horse must be feared but his comments aren't as strong as they might have been. Prime Defender will probably finish either siide of Iver Bridge and an exacta/FC might be on the cards. Hitchens is an attractive price but the trainer sounds defeatist already. If theres a sprinkling of rain and his price contracts before the off I'd be interested despite the penalty

Nulty

James Pyman of the Racing Post has made the same selections as me (watching a replay of the Form Factor)

He picked Guest Book against Snow Bay yesterday...had to play second fiddle then but hopefully we both got it right today.

I'm just waiting for Harrison George to drift a little more to maybe 50s, otherwise I'll take 40s

Nulty

Clerk of the Course predictably calls it on the slow side of good. No ground excuses for Taqleed and perfect for Dance And Dance

Nulty

Lincoln

Doncaster 2.35

Harrison George 1pt @ 50/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

As clearly the price suggests this is a massively hopeful bet. I just think Harrison George is a massive price. He's been overlooked by Hanagan but George Challoner takes 7lbs off his back (which puts him on 9-3 - not top weight anymore!) and he recently rode a 22/1 winner for Fahey in Feburary - his last ride. HG is well drawn 3 from the rail and it seems to me that the low numbers will supply the winner. HG goes on any ground but the easy side of good suits, has run well at the track and won there but disappointed the last twice - I'm putting that down as coincidence.

There won't be a ridiculous pace on despite the field size because theres no out and out front runner that needs the lead. Some horses that need a strong pace may go up to make it but HG likes to be handy enough, has the pace to win over 7f and has won over a mile. He's placed on 3 of his 4 seasonal reappearances the exception being last years Lincoln. He was clearly better than that though and this is his opportunity for redemption.

Nulty

Kempton 4.35

Fanditha 1pt ew @ 16/1 VC (1/5 Odds, 3 Places)

Racing out of her skin and plenty of races to keep her very fit. Form boosted by Baylini in the previous race and definitely worth an ew punt at the prices

Nulty

Doncaster 4.40

Loyalty 1pt @ 9/1 WH

In form, fit and on the upgrade. Weak looking race and hoping to take advantage of fitness which is apparently making a difference at the begining of the season. Maybe the harsh winter?

UrbanSea

Couldn't agree more. Horses with a run before are looking much better.

Nulty

Doncaster 3.55

Laylas Hero 1pt win, 1pt ew @ 18/1 Boylesports

Our Jonathon 2pts @ 9/1 PP

Transferred from Nicholls yard to Simcock for 3yo campaign and switched back this year. He comes back to 6f where he did al his winning before being campaigned over 7f under Simcock last year. He's down 12lbs from a career high as a result and gets Tom Queely riding whos 1 for 1 on him. He's a nice price for a field of this size I expect one of the three market leaders to take the race depending on how fit they are and hav had a bet on Our Jonathon at 9s. Kevin Ryan has spoken warmly about OJ, feeling is that he's ripe and ready and straight. Horsradish and Medicean Man are to be readily feard after both thei recent form was very strongly endorsed by Jimmy Styles and Eton Rifles respectively.

Nulty

Doncaster 4.25

Moyenne Corniche 1pt @ 11/1 Ladbrokes

Not seen the best of him at 1m4f and looks over priced. Could be very prominent and steal it from the front. Rain showers can help him.

Nulty

Not getting the rub of the green lately. Four 2nds and a 3rd from last 9 selections.

Profit: 109

Nulty

Windsor 3.40

First Post 4pts @ 6/1 Bet365

He's still on the upgrade and has been posting improved performances on the turf last year. He ran over 10f last twice last year and did well but was just held on both occasions. His reappearance this term saw him pulling his riders arms out for two furlongs and probably wore himself out because he was still there turning in but fell out the back over the mile one and a half furlongs. He's back now on turf and back at a mile where he's been most consistent. Over a mile last year he finished 4U121 from 5 races. To add to that the trainer Derek Hayden Jones has had 4 runners at Windsor during April in the past 7 years with 3 of them winning at prices of 16/1, 8/1 and 10/1. He's got a very decent SR of 13% there over 5 years (8.9 over 7 years) and a 115% ROI at SP over 7 years. The horse will appreciate the good ground (GF in places) and I should think in spite the forecast prices of around 10/1 he should go very close indeed.

Nulty

Windsor Double

3.40 First Post @ 6/1
4.40 Efistorm @ 14/1

1pt ew double @ 104/1 (7.9/1 place) Bet365

Nulty

Efistorm has run in this race 3 times and won it 3 times. He comes from stall 3 which is on the rail this year as they turn right. This is the biggest field he's faced in this race but he's tactically versatile and the ground will be perfect for him. Ideally he would sit in behind the leaders who are set to make it a very strong pace. If he's too far back its likely he run into traffic problems and be buried in at the rail. He's not badly treated having won off this m,ark at Folkstone last year. Trainer Conor Dore reckons he's never been as good on polytrack for him so recent all weather form is not too much of a worry. The important thing is that he's fit and gets a good draw for a race he clearly loves.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Windsor 3.40

First Post 4pts @ 6/1 Bet365

He's still on the upgrade and has been posting improved performances on the turf last year. He ran over 10f last twice last year and did well but was just held on both occasions. His reappearance this term saw him pulling his riders arms out for two furlongs and probably wore himself out because he was still there turning in but fell out the back over the mile one and a half furlongs. He's back now on turf and back at a mile where he's been most consistent. Over a mile last year he finished 4U121 from 5 races. To add to that the trainer Derek Hayden Jones has had 4 runners at Windsor during April in the past 7 years with 3 of them winning at prices of 16/1, 8/1 and 10/1. He's got a very decent SR of 13% there over 5 years (8.9 over 7 years) and a 115% ROI at SP over 7 years. The horse will appreciate the good ground (GF in places) and I should think in spite the forecast prices of around 10/1 he should go very close indeed.

Windsor 3.40

First Post 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365

(5pts total)

UrbanSea

Efistorm ran a stinker.

Nulty

Beverly 3.10

Noodles Blue Boy 2pts ew @ 11/1 WH (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Tends to front run and leaders are very tough to peg back at Beverley. 3 time winner at the track and will hopefully be wound up for this. Appears not to be wound up on first start of the season but actually thats deceptive. He won at Beverley over 5f on his first career start. Next season he was started over 6f at Southwell, then 7f at Wolves, then 6f at Newcastle before arriving back to 5f at Beverley and winning. Next season he was again started af at t a distance he's never won over -6f at Thirsk then he was brought back to Beverley and 5f again and guess what...he won. Looks like the penny has finally dropped with Ollie Pears this season.

Nulty

Nottingham 3.50

Akmal 1pt @ 11/4 Ladborkes

Looks over priced to me, 2/1 would be closer to his true price. Hard to know what shape their all in but Akmal wants as quick as possible and that will make him harder to catch. Slight concern that Richard Hills (love him or hate him) has chosen to ride at Beverley in a maiden rather than in this Listed race but Tadhg O'Shea is 2 for 3 on him and might even be a positive.

Nulty

Kempton 8.40

Guildenstern 1pt ew @ 8/1 PP

Still well handicapped and may be more encouraged to perform now he's got his head in front. Big field 7f polytrack races is what he wants and he could be the answer to this.

Nulty

Aintree 5.25

Ski Sunday 1pt @ 23 Betdaq

Beaten 4½l by Get Me Out Of Here at Cheltenham and now 5lbs better off but is a bigger price carrying the same weight. Trainer says AP told her that he'd stay an extra half mile and that was after his run at Kempton which is another flat track. Hes run second in the G1 novices hurdle here in 2009.

Nulty

Aintree 4.15

Oiseau De Nuit 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365

He's been raised 9lbs for his win at Cheltenham but relative to his form with Tchico Polos he's actually better off with him. 4lbs in the difference at Newbury and 11lbs now with Clements claim. Not an easy task to follow up but the horse is in form and half the field out of the handicap.

Nulty

Aintree 2.30

Local Hero 1pt ew @ 20/1 StanJames

I feel he got out paced at Cheltenham on the quick ground and downhill sections so the flatter track, slower ground and further distance will be in his favour. AP taking the ride is an obvious positive too. I was looking at him last night and though he would be a drifter so taking his price now. This race is normally won by a horse coming out of the Triumph and has been won by horses finishing as low as 10th. Normally the Triumph winner isn't in it though but Local Hero should put in a better performance than he did at the festival.

Nulty

Aintree 2.00

Without Big Bucks & Grand Crus

Karabak 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365

Has a class edge over most in the field while the two ahead of him in the market have notable negatives. If Karabak was 18lbs well in at Cheltenham I'm sure he would have hosed up the way Carlito Brigante did and Khyber Kim has been very disappointing this year so hes easily over looked.

Nulty

Totesport Bowl

Aintree 3.05

Deep Purple 1pt @ 9/1

With Denman having such a bad record after Gold Cups and favorites in general doing so bad in this race I've been hard pushed to have a bet. I still think Denman should do enough to win this but the stats are against him and Deep Purple still has a race in him. He was giving Nacarat 10lbs last time they met and he was staying on on Good ground over 25f at Wetherby. He should be able to turn form around with him. Provided Punchestowns can jump and stay he's got a good chance but that would be something he has never done before and with Deep Purple fresh and haaving missed the festival should be in better shape than last years effort in the Melling.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Aintree 2.00

Without Big Bucks & Grand Crus

Karabak 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365

Has a class edge over most in the field while the two ahead of him in the market have notable negatives. If Karabak was 18lbs well in at Cheltenham I'm sure he would have hosed up the way Carlito Brigante did and Khyber Kim has been very disappointing this year so hes easily over looked.

Aintree 2.00

Without Big Bucks & Grand Crus

Senntry Duty 1.5pts @ 6/1

Just saw Aidans bet on this and hes found a very interesting angle in the fact that Sentry Dutys' form when fresh is 100% almost. He's got the class whhen he's able to show it and Henderson has targeted this race andd knows how much better he is after a rest.