Fresh start

Nulty

I thought Ski Sunday would be up on the pace...

Haemorrhaging money lately...

Profit 87.5pts

Nulty

Melling Chase

Aintree 3.05

Albertas Run 2.5pts @ 7/2 VC

Following the same path as last year in an almost predictable way. Ground should be virtually the same as last year and sunny days have ensured it won't be any worse. Times have shown that the ground is similar to when he won the Melling last year. GoingStick readings are better today than they were last year. This year looks much tougher than last year with highly rated performers in Kalahari King, Somersby and Master Minded. Gut instinct says Albertas Run will be too good for these under the conditions. Somersby is opposable though he is drifting and approaching a price that would be tempting. He's never run well over this trip. Master Minded is contracting and a disappointing effort last time and the drying ground doesn't bode well for him. Kalahari King is the most interesting and with a sharper ride I think he could challenge Albertas more than he did at Cheltenham but his running style isn't as effective on flat tracks.

Tranquil Sea, Tartak and much off the rest just aren't as good as Albertas Run and if he gets his ground he'll beat them easily. I'll consider going in again tomorrow when the GoingStick readings are published.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Melling Chase

Aintree 3.05

Albertas Run 2.5pts @ 7/2 VC

Following the same path as last year in an almost predictable way. Ground should be virtually the same as last year and sunny days have ensured it won't be any worse. Times have shown that the ground is similar to when he won the Melling last year. GoingStick readings are better today than they were last year. This year looks much tougher than last year with highly rated performers in Kalahari King, Somersby and Master Minded. Gut instinct says Albertas Run will be too good for these under the conditions. Somersby is opposable though he is drifting and approaching a price that would be tempting. He's never run well over this trip. Master Minded is contracting and a disappointing effort last time and the drying ground doesn't bode well for him. Kalahari King is the most interesting and with a sharper ride I think he could challenge Albertas more than he did at Cheltenham but his running style isn't as effective on flat tracks.

Tranquil Sea, Tartak and much off the rest just aren't as good as Albertas Run and if he gets his ground he'll beat them easily. I'll consider going in again tomorrow when the GoingStick readings are published.

Albertas Run 5pts @ 4/1 Lads

Nulty

Aintree 2.00

Perfect Smile 1pt @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

Form behind the Neptune winner First Lieutenant at Leopardstown on ground softer than ideal. He couldn't pick up that day in the straight and has a low action. Breeding points to a better performance on sounder ground. Consistently performs against decent horses but this will be the first chance he gets on really good jumping ground.

Nulty

Topham Chase

Frankie Figg 1pt @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

Front-running, bold-jumping, well-weighted and likely type.I've backed him in his last two efforts over these fences in last years Topham when he unseated (privately blaming jockey for that error!) and in November when he took the Grand Sefton. He's the ideal type here and carries 12lbs less than he did in November. Also Brian Hughes won on him last time and takes the ride again.

Nulty

Sefton Novices Hurdle

Sparky May 3pts @ 11/2

She had a hard time of it at Cheltenham against one of the best middle distance hurdlers around. The mistake at the beginning can't have helped her cause and she got fired up and probably used up too much energy but still would have found Quevega unbeatable on the day. She faces horses who have been stuck in novice company for the year and having taken on Quevega at levels and had the problems during the race that she did - and now getting a 7lbs mares allowance - she looks the standout bet here. Her win over Carols Legacy looks even better with that one finishing second today in the Bowl.

Nulty

Smithythehorse.com Handicap Hurdle

Aintree 4.50

Son Of Flicka 1pt @ 20/1 Betdaq
Whodoyouthink 1pt @ 42/1 Betdaq

Weight carrying performances are non-existant in this race and this is a very speculative bet. Son Of Flicka carries top weight less 7lbs that Brooke takes off leaving him on 11-5 while Whodoyouthink carries 11-5. No winner in the last 10 years has carried more than 11st and maybe one or two have placed. These are quite unexposed horses though. SOF front runs and that is a positive at Aintree in most cases. He's never been tried beyond 2m4f and could have been given worse if he was not caught by Sir de Champs at Cheltenham. He has a chance.

I think Whodoyouthink is hugely overpriced at 42s. he carried 11-11 in a handicap hurdle on soft ground over 2m7f last time having never tried the trip. He was going well untill the weight told and he stopped at the last. He carries 7lbs less here on a flat track with a sound surface. He could be the wildcard especially with McKiernans Follow The Plan running so well in the Bowl on Wednesday.

Nulty

If they water the Mildmay chase course I expect to be logging my bets from a prison cell after killing the Clerk Of The Course at Aintree...

Nulty

Grand National

Becauseicouldntsee 5pts ew @ 25/1 VC (1/4 Odds, 6 Places)

Becauseicouldntsee is a pretty unexposed horse and has been improving over fences through his career. He's shown he stays over 4 miles when second in the National Hunt Chase at last years Cheltenham Festival. Connections are sure this further distance will suit him and he has a very capable partner in Davy Russell. He's finished in the first two in 5 of his 7 chase starts and as an 8 year old should still have more to give. His last run was very decent when chasing Majectic Concorde home over 3m in the Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas festival. There is obvious queries as to how he'll take too the National Fences but he is a pretty careful jumper at thee beginning of his races and improves as he warms to the task. His level of unexposure makes him hugely appealing and at around 25/1 he could easily improve again enough to go very close. Its arguable that if Becauseicouldntsee is on the shortlist then Majestic Concorde should also - the difference is 9lbs over 4m4f. Also there is no form in Majestic Concordes Pedigree over further than 3m and very little even at that. 4m 1/2 around Cheltenham would require stamina levels approaching the levels required in the National.

I'm quite excited about this lad and think he has it in him to win it. He's ultra consistent, will certainly stay the trip, while not the most experienced - hes got lots of experience in big fields. If he can take to the fences hes got a very good chance.

Nulty

Bank: 68pts

Newbury 4.55

Five Star Junior 1pt ew @ 14/1 Will Hill

Nulty

Ripon 2.00

Barren Brook 0.5pts ew @ 40/1 Bet365 ( ¼ Odds, 4 Places )

Came on a ton for a run on debut last year and ack down to winning mark. Not entirely certain to get the trip and price reflects doubts but they look to have over compensated and 40/1 looks too big


EDIT:

Barren Brook 0.5pts ew @ 85.5 (or thereabouts) TOTE ( ¼ Odds, 4 Places )

Nulty

Finished second last totally blowing the break and the turn. Amazed he got round at all.

Nulty

Ayr 5.05

Mistree Dancer 1pt ew @ 20/1 VC

Nulty

Haydock 6.00

Style And Panache 1pt ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Nulty

Sandown 4.50

Directorship 1pt ew @ 14/1 ToteSport ( ¼ Odds, 4 Places )

I like Jim Crowely and this horse has decent form in the book. He hasn't won in a while - since his Maiden in 09' - but has run well in defeat lots getting 2nds and 3rds. He seems to like Sandown especially having broken his maiden here and finished 2ndin his last 2 visits here. He's worth an ew punt owing to his great place record.

Nulty

Musselburgh 3.05

Mon Brav 1pt @ 9/1 WH



Sandown 3.50

Genius Beast 1pt @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Profit: 72 pts

Nulty

Irish National

Caim Hill 1pt @ 20/1 Ladbrokes

Deal Done 1pt @ 25/1 WH

Nulty

Huntingdon 1.40

Dakota Boy 1pt @ 4/1 StanJames

Been in the tracker for a while waiting for GF ground. Should hopefully go well.

Nulty

Ascot 4.50

Nelsons Bounty 1pt @ 12/1 Ladbrokes

Roodle 0.5pts @ 51/1 (- Comm 48.45/1)

Nulty

Nelsons Bounty SP 14/1

Profit: 82.5

Nulty

Newmarket 2.00

Viva Vettori 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes

Ellemujie 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 VC

Nulty

I was hoping Off Chance would be a bigger price despite her obvious trouble last time....

Goodwood 4.35

Off Chance 0.5pts @ 15/2 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Newmarket 2.00

Viva Vettori 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes

Ellemujie 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 VC

Ellemujie 5th by ¾l

Nulty

Goodwood 4.00

Magical Macey 1pt ew @ 9/1 Lads

Nulty

Newmarket 3.50

Our Jonathan 2pts @ 10/1 bet365

Wildcat Wizard 1pt ew @ 22/1 ( ¼ Odds, 5 Places )

Nulty

Newmarket 2.05

Times Up 1pt @ 11/1 William Hill

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Newmarket 2.05

Times Up 1pt @ 11/1 William Hill

Draws a line under that November handicap disappointment. Can't believe I didn't back him that day

Nulty

Newmarket 5.00

Charleston Lady 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

I've backed
Newmarket 5.50

Times Up .5pts ew @ 6/1 PP (GP)

This one is waiting to happen but Willing Foe looks smart. He ought to place at least though.

Wins November Handicap @ 14/1 next start....

Nulty wrote: »

God I hate second guessing myself. Furious doesn't tell the half of it

Nulty wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

Newmarket 2.05

Times Up 1pt @ 11/1 William Hill

Draws a line under that November handicap disappointment. Can't believe I didn't back him that day

Some things are more important than money