Fresh start

Nulty

coughlan08 wrote: »

ya was watching the race,,,when does she run next or can i look this up myself by going to some site.
cheers...

Go to http://www.irishracing.com/ and click the Horse Tracker link in the sidebar on the left. You can put horses into that and get email notifications for when they are declared to run.


Leopardstown 7.30

Beethoven 2pts @ 13/8 PP

Up against some decent animals here but Beethoven has shown he can mix it with the best. 4l off Rip Van Winkle at Goodwood last time he always gives his best and as O'Brien said before that race, he should have come on for the run. It's a relatively short price but he is a talented and underspoken horse who has now been given a task far more attainable than his last few outings. I personally believe he'll be better for 9/10f but he's up against some horses here who have questions over the 8f here too. Dandy Boy is likely to stay but is probably not up to this level and Akderena is a 10f horse no questions while Emulous ran well over 9f and will be better for the drop back. Blinkers are tried for the selection and it was when the visor was applied that he pulled out his career best in the Dewhurst. He carries a 7lbs penalty for that but he has achieved more that any of the others and is taken to win.

coughlan08

thanks for that much appreciated,,
have tried a bit of Beethoven aswell so best of luck.

Nulty

Thanks Coughlan. Good luck to you too.

Ripon - Great St. Wilfrid (Saturday) (NRNB)

Noverre To Go 2pts ew @ 12/1 PP

He's very useful handicapper and reliable in most races. Dropped a pound for his Ascot run which came on ground too fast for him to show his best and ran well in the Stewards Cup last time finishing 5th. He's holding his form well and is drawn in the center so can make his way to the favaoured far side.

Shifting Star 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365

I'm taking a chance on Shifting Star to run well here. He's got plenty of things that appeal and make him look a little over priced. He's drawn on the right side of the track for a start in stall 14. He was travelling beautifully at Newmarket last time and hampered a number of times and just couldn't get a run. He finished 8th that day but was far better than the form book suggests. He hasn't won since August 08 but all his wins have come on good or good to soft and conditions. He goes on every ground but conditions at Ripon on Saturday may help him put in his best.

coughlan08

coughlan08 wrote: »

thanks for that much appreciated,,
have tried a bit of Beethoven aswell so best of luck.

legend..first time i ever backed one of your selection,

i loved that drift out to 2-1
had 30 on it,
sound

Nulty

Happy days

Pushed out hands and heels. I was a bit worried he wouldn't see the challenge from Dandy Boy until too late but O'Brien got enough out of him to cross the line in first.

Your lucky this was the first you backed. I think I've only had 4 winners. I'd hold off backing any others til I hit some form - but you should cross check the form yourself anyway.

Bank: -35

Dandy Boy ran a very good race.

coughlan08

if im being honest with ya,i had 2.5 e/w on dandy boy @9-1,before is odds slashed to 6-1...
when i heard you saying he is likly to stay i said id throw something on him as a savour..
so again thanks a mil..will be posting a screenshot of my bets today in my log.
..first day i ever really backed horses for prober,i.e looking at the stats,also took others advice on here which all paid off.

had 4 winners,,,chuffed

Nulty

Shifting Star looks to be pulled out of the St Wilfrid.

Noverre to go will probably be pulled tomorrow too.

Nulty

Replacing Shifting Star -

Damika 1pt ew @ 20/1 PP (GP)

This 7yo seems to run best when nothing is expected of him. Placed twice lately in big fields at 20/1 and 33/1 and has won two 6f handicaps in May this year. He's drawn on the favourable far side, he'll enjoy the conditions and the stable, while not prolific, has has a few winners lately in Mey Blossom twice and Rios Girl. Jockey Michael Stainton has won on the horse 4 times and is having a reasonably good season considering the horses available to him. Damika has won two Class 2 handicaps both on Soft going. It'll be Soft tomorrow.

Nulty

Doncaster 4.35

Brierty 4pts ew @ 7/1 SkyBet

In good form of late and only beaten by another mare who's come out since and won. No rise in the weights for that and comes to Doncaster from a stable in equally good form. 3wins, 6 seconds and 3 thirds in the last two weeks, Carroll can add another first to that list after Brierty gets her head in front from a favourable high draw. Her life-time 5f race record reads 7332122. The 7 was her debut and the 3s are on polytrack. If shes anywhere near 5/1 it'll be a big ew bet otherwise a medium/high win bet.

EDIT:
The form of her last race is fairly solid. As I said the winner Mey Blossom came out and won, 3rd placed again at 20/1, 4th won next time, 5th finished 3rd of 6 on his first try on fibersand and last placed 7 of 7 placed on his next outing too.

Nulty

Newbury 2.30

Kite Wood 3pts @ 3/1 PP (GP)

Connections have been waiting for rain and explicitly declared the horse would only run if rain fell. The rain came and will come again before the off. Kite Wood has a 2/2 record on easy going, 2nd in the leger last year, and is 2/2 at the distance - including his win last year at 11/10f. He will certainly be shorter tomorrow and deservedly so. His main rivals are hoping for firm ground and Frankie may be allowed to dictate from the front like he did in last years success. bin Suroor has had 2 winners today and looks to be picking up form at the same time as he did last year.

coughlan08

sense you made me 90 in the last race,i will go with you again by backing kite wood @ 3-1,,,€20.counted towards log

Nulty

coughlan08 wrote: »

sense you made me 90 in the last race,i will go with you again by backing kite wood @ 3-1,,,€20.counted towards log

Good luck with it coughlan. I "made" you €60 though.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Thanks Coughlan. Good luck to you too.

Ripon - Great St. Wilfrid (Saturday) (NRNB)

Noverre To Go 2pts ew @ 12/1 PP

He's very useful handicapper and reliable in most races. Dropped a pound for his Ascot run which came on ground too fast for him to show his best and ran well in the Stewards Cup last time finishing 5th. He's holding his form well and is drawn in the center so can make his way to the favaoured far side.

Shifting Star 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365

I'm taking a chance on Shifting Star to run well here. He's got plenty of things that appeal and make him look a little over priced. He's drawn on the right side of the track for a start in stall 14. He was travelling beautifully at Newmarket last time and hampered a number of times and just couldn't get a run. He finished 8th that day but was far better than the form book suggests. He hasn't won since August 08 but all his wins have come on good or good to soft and conditions. He goes on every ground but conditions at Ripon on Saturday may help him put in his best.

Nulty wrote: »

Shifting Star looks to be pulled out of the St Wilfrid.

Noverre to go will probably be pulled tomorrow too.

Both NR, stakes returned

Nulty

Pissed off with Brierty! Just wasn't interested at the start. :mad:
I swear the horse thought it was a 6f race.

+14pts

Bank: -26...-21

Definitely -19. Miscalculation on Jet Away return

Nulty

Horse| Position| Stake| Price| Multiple?| Balance

38.Jet Away| 1st| 3 Win| 9/4| | -26
39.Interakt| 8th| 1 Win| 9/2| | -27
40.Phluke| 3rd| 1 Win| 11/2| | -28
41.Khor Sheed| 3rd| 2 Win| 5/2| | -30
42.Scamperdale| 7th| 2 Win| 4/1| | -32
43.Invincible Ash| NR| 3 Win| 6/1| | -32
44.Dhan Dhana| 6th| 5 Win| 5/6| | -37
45.Beethoven| 1st| 2 Win| 2/1| | -33
46.Noverre To Go| NR| 2 ew| 12/1| | -33
47.Shifting Star | NR| 1 ew| 25/1| | -33
48.Damika| 1st| 1 ew| 20/1| | -8
49.Brierty| 4th| 4 ew| 7/1| | -16
50.Kite Wood| 7th| 3 Win| 3/1| | -19

Bank: -19

Nulty

Deauville 2.40

Makfi 1pt ew @ 9/1 Lads (GP)

2000 Guineas winner Makfi is something special. We just haven't had the opportunity to see him at his best since his win in England. I'm taking him to put in a good performance here after a poor effort in the St James Palace Stakes at Ascot for a few reasons. His sire Dubawi won the race in 2005. He is clearly a talented horse to win the guineas beating a number of G1 winners. He has won twice on VSft going in France and has been explicitly backed to go on the ground today by Delzangles his trainer. Other horses may not be as confident on the surface. He was found to have a throat infection after the St James Palace Stakes where he failed to shine but back home in France and without the bother of travelling he will be better prepared. Soumillion takes the ride today and a better jockeuy couldn't be found for all the money in the world. Naturally the top two will be hard to beat but a nice ew price allows me to take the cautious approach and the opportunity to take something from the bet should one of the older horses fail to fire.

Nulty

Makfi Wins, returns +11.25

Bank: -7.75

Nulty

Ebor Handicap

York 3.25 Tuesday

Demolition 1pt ew @ 20/1 PP (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP, NRNB)

Faheys charge has been very consistent in handicaps lately. He's contested 4 class 2 handicaps lately and placed in 3 of them at odds ranging from 9/1 to 16/1. In fact, he hasn't been out of the first four on the turf since July 09 - thats 10 races! Unfortunately Paul Hanagan is suspended for the day of the Ebor so Tom Eaves takes the ride. I think this has somewhat allowed Demolition to hold his price. I think if Hanagan was riding he'd be shorter for sure. Its true that Eaves isn't as good as Hanagan but he has enough experience to cope with the occasion.

Demolition is the first opportunity Fahey has really had to be competitive in a heritage handicap with all his horses poorly drawn in the Stewards Cup and the Great St. Wilfrid. 7 of the last 10 winners of the Ebor have been drawn in the top 7 stalls and Demolition comes out of 17. He's run over 13f and wasn't stopping so he's sure to get the trip and has a decent amount of speed placing over 10f most notanly when 3rd behind Wigmore Hall at York last time when he had ante post fancy Imposing and Hugh Taylors pick Hillview Boy in behind, albeit not very far. The Ebor has thrown up some big price winners in the last 10 years with a 100/1 winner in 2006. Only once was a 20/1+ shot not placed in the last 10 years.

The selection goes on any ground but would appreciate good ground. I think considering his run over 13f at Ayr he will be a little bit better than his handicap mark over the extra furlong and has a fairly appealing chance at relatively interesting odds. Can't be backing anything single figure in a 1m6f especially but any heritage handicap! Look at Deauville Flyer in the Northumberland Plate and Tajneed in the Great St. Wilfrid and Changingoftheguard in last years Ebor. Ther most likely winner is Overturn. He's absolutely flying right now.

Nulty

York 3.25 Juddmonte International

Cutlass Bay .5pt ew @ 33/1 PP (1/5 Odds, 3 places, GP)

This race got harder today than it already was before. The only revelation that's occured to me is that 6/1 about Dick Turpin is getting smaller and smaller. He has his stamina to prove and his pedigree to oppose and all this on easing ground against proven stayers who like give? Way too short for me however much I like the horse.

The imports are easily the most interesting horses in this race and what I'm looking for is a 10f specialist who likes ease in the ground and the more the better. 9mm due to fall before the race and the going stick reads 7.2 already. Its not a case of who will wil because so many of them could, its about which of the potential winners is the best price. That honour has fallen to Cutlass Bay. He ran a stinker at the Curragh on the fastest ground he's ever faced and he clearly hated it. His hate for that gives me the impression that he a mudlark. He has form beating Cavalry Man over 10f last year and ought to be at the same level as him this time round. Dettori goes for Cavalry Man but all too often have I seen two evely matched horses from Godolphin race and the 'second' string wins. They're all very good horses!

The stake is very small due to the competitiveness of the race and there no point in going into the merits of each horse. All I can say is Cavalryman and Byword are the biggest dangers, Rip is unpredictable and Jakkalberry is totally unknown but touted as a very good horse who'll relish underfoot conditions.

I've gone on long enough! :rolleyes:

Nulty

York 1.50

Oldjoesaid .25 pts ew @ 33/1 Lads (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP)

Has been a monkey the last two years and almost unbackable - until now! 33/1 is a price worth taking about a horse whos best form has come in easy ground over 5f. He's 18lbs lower than his last winning mark and carries 8lbs less on his back than he ever has before. No worries with the stable form as Kevin Ryan has knocked out more than a few winners lately. It's not one to go mad about because there are plenty others that look more likely to win but they aren't as attractive at the odds. It might be that he'll run a stinker again but he still retains some ability and these are the conditions are custom built for a decent run. Massive chance taken here.

Nulty

York 2.50 Great Voltigeur

Monterosso 1pt @ 8/1 Lads (GP)

Perhaps underestimated still but a G2 winner all the same. Mark Johnston thinks highly of this horse and whether he thinks he will get the Leger distance is irrelevant in this race. It looks as if Monterosso could have plateaued but being a progressive handicapper come group horse he perhaps needs that bit of time to grow into himself like the so-called solid G1 horses are allowed. One thing is for sure, Johnston horses are not to be sneered at when they look out of their depth.

The form of his Ascot run isn't too bad with Arctic Cosmos running well at Goodwood, and Buzzword winning the German Derby albeit with Monterosso running badly in behind. Lets not forget he ran very well at the Curragh in the Irish Derby and while that puts him behind Midas Touch, the run may have come too soon. Fallon is riding again for Johnston and they have an excellent 37% SR and 18pt LSP for the year.

The question of the ground can be eased (excuse the pun!) by Makfis performance in the Jacque le Marois on Sunday in VSft conditions and the fact that Monterosso is out of a G1 winning Barathea mare. Pedigree suggests the easy side of good will be no problem.

The opposition is tough in Rewilding and

...EDIT
Must go to sleep....finish in the morning.....ZZZzzzz

Nulty

Ground was confusing today...much better than I anticipated.

Bank: -10.25

Nulty

York 1.45

Thin Red Line 1pt ew @ 22/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP)

Interesting and very difficult handicap but always a good betting opportunity! Thin Red Line (TRL) appeals to me in this . I can forgive him his last run because I found out today that Michael Dods' stable had a problem last month which was sorted as evidenced by Sweet Lightenings win at the course yesterday. Tom Eaves was riding and takes this ride. He's 1 for 1 on Thin Red Line. TRL was beaten so far last time that there was obviously something wrong and should bounce back today. Before that he ran creditably in a class 2 at Epsom over 10f off 1lb higher and with a win already under his belt at the distance he should perform better again with the extra 2f and progressing as a 4yo should.

I'm not going mad because he's carrying plenty of weight and drawn on the far side but he'll be up with the pace hopefully where you want to be at York.

FWIW Aphrodisia and Think Its All Over were eliminated, but could also go well.

Nulty

York 2.15

Akmal 1pt @ 9/1 Lads (GP)

Tentative bet on Akmal here. Admittadly I was pissed when he beat Saptapadi at Sandown as he was my second choice. I then put a tiny bet on for the Gold Cup but he just collapsed inside the 4f marker over 2m4f. He travels like anything when he's out on the lead and although he's got a penalty to defy, if he's in the mood he and Hills can dictate from the front. Only a win bet because if he gets headed its likely to be lights out which makes things risky for ew purposes. Hills isn't the most reliable on choosing the best horse but he's over looked Tastahil probably because the ground wont suit him as much. Akmals is 3/8 at 16f and 2/2 at York which suits his runnng style. The better ground will help his cause and mine too.

x PyRo

Loving the work you put into this, great write ups also, fair play bossman. Keep it up.

Nulty

York 2.50

Dubawi Gold 1pt ew @ 18/1 Stan James (1/4 Odds, 3 places, GP)

Looked a nice colt at Epsom in listed race won by High Award. Finished second that day and didn't handle the track aswell as not settling and fighting for his head. Similar happened last time at Ascot where he was too keen and things were happening too fast at halfway over the shorter distance. 5f was never going to suit and if anything he'll be better suited by 7f. If theres anyone who can settle a 2yo though its Kieren Fallon. He takes it up from Phillip Makin here and his ride on Waiters Dream yesterday is a testament to his ability with juveniles. It's another selection from the Dods stable who I've justified in my reasoning for Thin Red Line. I think 18/1 is an underestimated price.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Loving the work you put into this, great write ups also, fair play bossman. Keep it up.

Cheers Pyro. We do it for the love of the game

And hopefully some return!

x PyRo

Damn right! I love the game but needed a break, does my head in at times because I spend too much time at it. :pac:

Nulty

Aidankkk has twisted my arm.

Desert Sea .5pt ew @ 28/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP)

I had picked Desert Sea (DS) and Demolition as potential bets in the Ebor but I was willing to take two in the Great St Wilfrid so why not the richest handicap in Europe? 3rd to Overturn in the Northumberland and getting a big weight concession this time round. My only reservation about DS was that he looks like a dour stayer and that things would happen too quickly for him. Especially seeing as though there is not likely to be any pace in the race. However, the few pace setters there are in the race may be encouraged to go for it and end up battling for the lead and make a good pace. I'll always remember JP Guilembert going off like a scolded cat in a handicap on Class is Class I think so if something remotely similar happens theres no better bet than DS. Small stake obviously.

6pt outlay for York

Nulty

Bank: -18.25