Fresh start

Nulty

York 4.40

Soorah 2pts @ 5/2 PP (GP)

Frustrating day and a bit of a knee jerk reaction but Soorah has an obvious chance in the last. Fallon on board and I keep catching him at the wrong time so hopefully it won't happen again. The filly has improved plenty throughout the year and looks to have more to offer. Haggas had Approve today so stable going well and love winners here. Track will suit and has a great chance if settling.

Nulty

Ugh...backed two Fallon rides today and neither travelled. :rolleyes:

York 3.25

Snow Fairy/Sariska 1pt Reverse Forecast (2pts total)

Heavily talented field here but two stand out among them. Sariska ran Fame and Glory to a length at Epsom in the Coronation and showed shes getting better as the season develops in the same vein as Rip Van Winkle. She is a class filly at 12f and is being aimed at the Arc so a late season campaign is at the fore of Michael Bells thoughts. She'll be wound up for this though and the ground will be easy enough for her to run.

Snow Fairy is getting 8lbs from her fellow dual-Oaks winner and judging by her run at the Curragh she is getting better all the time and could be compared with Sariska in that softer ground shows her at her best. I pick these two to fight out finish because I'm ruling Midday out due to the distance. She's a class filly in her own right but she might not be able to give her best over the mile and a half. She gets it but shes patently better over 10f. Hibaayeb needs rattling ground and she wont get it. Barshiba isn't good enough nor is Eleanora Duse. Flying Cloud is a bit off these too but will need to pull out something we've never seen before to trouble the judge. Finally Meeznah could be the danger to front two but may turn out to be second best of her generation like Midday.

Nulty

York 2.50

Balcarce Nov 1pt ew @ 16/1 Lads, Bet365 (GP)

Extrememly consistent and probably not well handicapped but I give him a better chance than his odds. He ran Rio de la Plata pretty close off level weights, who looks approaching his best, at Nottingham on his last start but one He went on to DH with Mabait and beat Harrison George off level weights in a listed event at Pontefract. Balcarce Nov got no run in the Royal Hunt Cup when trying to come from the back. He has shown enough form off his current mark to suggest he cqan still get his head in front

Nulty

York 4.05

Ceilidh House 1pts @ 8/1 Lads

Thought good enough to run in the Oaks but was found to have a temperature that day. Raph Beckett has been in top form as has Jim Crowley this year and the price may be incorporating her illness. Should be up to contesting this as Beckett doesn't send out horses without a very good chance and will make sure Ceilidh House is ready for this.

Nulty

York 4.40

Above Limits 2pts ew @ 18/1 VC, WH (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP)

Lack of support is a worry but John Fahy has been brought to York for the ride, his only one today. Simcock is still in reasonably good form and Above lLimits was tried in a handicap in May but is effectively 12lbs better off for that and may have had a problem that day because shes run creditably before and since. 3rd in a G3 last year behind Our Jonathon. Very competitive but has his chance at odds.

Nulty

Horrific!

Bank: -29.25pts

Nulty

York 1.45

Montparnasse 2pt @ 11/1 PP (GP)

Half brother to G2 winner and multiple listed winner. Improved no end when stepped up in trip on both previous starts. Lightly raced individual thought well of the stable and expecting a good run. 2 wins from 5 starts in a career that only began as a three year old, he was still learning on his last win at Nottingham but showed he learns quick when asked to go and win his race over todays trip of 14f. Second and third from his latest succes have come out since and run well with the second 'Sidney Melbourne' turning over an odds on Prescott horse and the third 'Boston Blue' out running many of the contenders in this field at Glorious Goodwood.

Nulty

York 2.15

Kings Gambit 2pts @ 9/1 Lads (GP)

Put in a good performance when chasing home the warm favourite Rainbow Peak at Ascot. Giving 2lbs to Rainbow Peak that day for a 2l beating suggests theres not that much between them. The fav is improving, of that there is no doubt, but Kings Gambit is no slouch. He ran a blinder off top weight in the John Smiths here at York last start only going down by a short head to Wigmore Hall. Wigmore Hall is getting ready to compete in the Arlington Million G1 for 3yo at Arlington Park, USA this weekend. He'll have no troubles with the ground and the trip is ideal. He has disappointed in the past but he's in the best form of his British career and seems to be over priced.

EDIT:
Wigmore Hall is actually going for the Secretariat Stakes.

Nulty

York 3.25

Equiano 4pts @ 4/1 Will Hill (GP)

Was surprised to see Equiano this price after his recent run of form so I flew down to my nearest Will Hill to get it on. Theres a few showers expected before racing but that will only keep the ground safe and Equiano will go on it no worries. He's an absolute speed-ball and can match it with Starspangledbanner easily over the 5f. He is totally independent of a rail and runs as true as an arrow (if thats a phrase!?). SSB had the advantage of the rail in the July Cup and Equiano still had him cooked by the 5f pole and the stiffness of the track was all that kept him from winning that day over 6f. Back at his best distance he will be hard to beat even from a supposed poor draw. It was shown on Wed and Thur that just off the rail is as good a place to be. This was confirmed by King Kieren in an interview also and I expect Equiano to do the business in spite of his "disadvantage".

I backed SSB in the Golden Jubilee (Ante Post) and Fleeting Spirit in the July Cup so SSB owes me nothing but Fleeting Spirit wouldn't let herself down on the firm going at Newmarket and I expect she'll be better today. Kingsgatte Native is a horse you can't rely on so if your brave enough to back it good luck. The juveniles have a reasonably good record in this. One win and one second from 3 starts.

Its a brilliant race and one to enjoy but 4/1 was too big to turn down for a horse with a 11212 record this year.

Nulty

I meant to make mention of Borderlescott who has an incredible record in August of 5 wins from 8 races. He's 3/4 at York also. Its a pretty crazy race.

x PyRo

And Stone Of Folca who has an identical profile to Kingsgate Native who won it for the same connections in '07.

Nulty

York 4.05

Al Muqbil 1pts @ 5/2 Will Hill (GP)

Half brother to Arcano and highly thought of at Manton. Obviously a tricky race but this colt ran very well despite greenness at the July meeting and has the benefit of the first string cap of Hamdam Al Maktoum, Richard hills choosing the ride and a run on the debutants. Because they're all so unexposed the bets a small one but the Godolphin horse is a major danger. They have had a great season with 2yos already but this is when they kick into overdrive or at least they did last year. Terdad will probably prove to be special but the lack of a run makes the decision much easier and I'm taking Al Muqbil to get his racing in order and pull out a big run.

Nulty

I like Treadwell in the 2.50 and Hollins in the 4.40 but I'm shy for a bet. Gonna save a point for something later in the day perhaps.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

And Stone Of Folca who has an identical profile to Kingsgate Native who won it for the same connections in '07.

It'll be identical up to the point where Stone of Folca doesn't win the Nunthorpe!

:pac:

a win, a second and a third from 4 runners...the 2yos have a good record in the last 10 years.

Nulty

22.5pts blown at York so far...9pts in play. What a tough festival!

Nulty

Extra 2pts on El Muqbil - same bookie 2/1

Nulty

Thank god this festival is over!

NO BETS IN THE LAST!!!! :pac:

I'm going for a well needed drink....

Nulty

Curragh 3.45

Invincible Ash 2pts @ 9/1 Stan James (GP)

Withdrawn last time I intended to back her and now takes her place among a very competitive field. Going and jockey all good for the course and distance winner and as I mentioned before its tough to stop a mare in as good form as this. Its been a while since she ran last but I'll take the withdrawal last time as a sign that all is right for tomorrow. If its not, then she'll be taken out again. In the form of her life she ought to go close with a decent draw near the pace and a stable who had a double at tipperary during the week.

Nulty

Goodwood 3.45

Himalya 3pts @ 11/4 PP (GP)

Always been a big fan of this horse and I think this is a good opportunity for him to get a Group win. The main danger is the course specialist Tropical Paradise who has many positives. The trip and ground are suitable for both. Although Himalya hasn't run very often on easy ground, his pedigree suggests he'll have no problems on it. A line through Golden Stream suggests Himalya has an edge over Tropical Paradise though its been a while since he's won but Himalya looks a little bit over priced today.

Nulty

Curragh 4.15

Laughing Lashes 1pts @ 4/1 PP (GP)

Memory is obviously a nice horse with a bright future. Shes got a great chance here and with the yard so confident its hard to look else where. But the price is a bit off putting and it hasn't contracted this morning suggesting that her price is too short. Laughing Lashes is a big filly whos progressing all the time and its been said that shell be even better next year due to her size. She hasn't done too bad this year though and her last run was 2 months ago so I'm hoping a little more progression has been made in the intervening months. She great course form and had a couple of these in behind last time. Although it was yielding last time there enough to make me think she can do it again on a faster surface. All of O'Briens are interesting but thats the thing, it hard to pick the main danger from them. I'm leaning towards the line of thought that if there are 4 contenders then there are no real dangers there. No doubt they are nice horses but I dont thing even Aidan knows which is the best yet. Jessica Harrington is happy with her filly and at 4/1 so am I.

Nulty

CrAzY 5 PoInT DoUbLe

Innocuous @ 6/4
Glor Na Mara @ EVEN
5 Points @ (4/1) (Ladbrokes)

Innocuous is held in high regard by David Simcock and looked like being able to add to his latsest Ffos Las success on soft ground.

Glor Na Mara has been very good without getting a win but there is not the opposition in todays field that has stopped him in the past and I expect him to take the honours.

Nulty

I can't be in any worse of luck. My last three HorseTracker selections have come 2nd!

Magic Milie 2nd by a neck
Rocker 2nd by 3/4l
Queen of Cash 2nd by a head

I'm so poor

UrbanSea

Haha,chin up Nulty. They'll start comin soon.

Nulty

Betfred Sprint Cup - Saturday

Haydock 3.35

Markab 2pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Markab has improved significantly since he's been campaigned as an out-and-out sprinter. He matched it with Equiano and Kingsgate Native at their best and has the ability for a potential upset at Haydock. Hes won a G3 this year at the Curragh over 6f and finished a good 2nd over 5f at Ascot behind Equiano. I think his experience over longer distances shows hes best over a testing sprint course and Haydock should provide that for him. He has never run there before but the course characteristics could benefit his chances.

The ground is an issue with Markab who finds his best form on fast ground. Rain fell heavily on track last week but the forecast is clear until Saturday. With the going currently Good and 3 days of drying, the ground should pose no problems but the faster the better for him. Trainer Henry Candy hasn't had many runners lately but they have been running consistently.

The draw will play an important part in deciding of the outcome of the race and if Markab gets a good draw then his chances will increase significantly. 16/1 right now looks too big for such a competitive horse with little to suggest he won't be there or thereabouts.

Nulty

Brighton 4.30

Dhan Dhana 2pt @ 11/2 Paddy Power (GP)

Romped home on handicap/seasonal debut at Folkstone by 7l and ran so badly 6 days later that something wasn't right. Some people doubt the bounce factor exists but sometimes there is no other way to explain a performance. This case perfectly points to the bounce factor. Haggas really had no other choice than to run Dhan Dhana before the handicapper had a chance to revise her mark. Beverly is a tricky track and from the bottom of the straight is all up hill so its understandable that its there that Dhan Dhana started to trail off badly. I'm confident that she'll run better today with a chance to recover. Azaday is the obvious choice here but with a dangeer in the field like Dhan Dhana, its difficult to take 9/4 about a horse that keeps getting beaten.

Nulty

Dhan Dhana drifted but beat the horse that won't win 7/1 winner. Just gotta follow that up!

before today...
Bank: -51.25

After today
Bank: -37.25

(less 4pts Markab)

ghosttown

Nulty, nice winner ! Well done....:)

Nulty

thanks ghost. Much appreciated!

hitman79

Nulty wrote: »

Dhan Dhana drifted but beat the horse that won't win 7/1 winner. Just gotta follow that up!

before today...
Bank: -51.25

After today
Bank: -37.25

(less 4pts Markab)

Great tip..raging i forgot to back it after reading your thread earlier

UrbanSea

www.welldonenultyniceshout.com