Fresh start

Nulty

Horse| Position| Stake| Price| Multiple?| Balance

51.Makfi| 1st| 1 ew| 9/1| | -7.75
52.Demolition| 16th| 1 ew| 20/1| | -9.75
53.Cutlass Bay| 7th| .5 Win| 33/1| | -10.75
54.Oldjoesaid| 10th| .25 ew| 33/1| | -11.25
55.Monterosso | 5th| 1 Win| 8/1| | -12.25
56.Thin Red Line| 6th| 1 ew| 22/1| | -14.25
57.Akmal| 7th| 1 Win| 9/1| | -15.25
58.Dubawi Gold| 11th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -17.25
59.Desert Sea| 5th| .5 ew| 28/1| | -18.25
60.Sooraah | 5th| 2 Win| 5/2| | -20.25
61.Snow Fairy| 2nd| 1 RFC| 5/2| | -22.25
62.Sariska | RR| +| 85/40| | -
63.Balcarce Nov| 7th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -24.25
64.Ceilidh House| 9th| 1 Win| 9/1| | -25.25
65.Above Limits| 12th| 2 ew| 18/1| | -29.25
66.Montparnasse | 5th| 2 Win| 11/1| | -31.25
67.Kings Gambit| 3rd| 2 Win| 9/1| | -33.25
68.Equiano | 12th| 4 Win| 16/1| | -37.25
69.Al Muqbil| 2nd| 1 Win| 5/2| | -38.25
70.Al Muqbil| 2nd| 2 Win| 2/1| | -40.25
71.Invincible Ash | 6th| 2 Win| 9/1| | -42.25
72.Himalya | 3rd| 3 Win| 11/4| | -45.25
73.Laughing Lashes | 2nd| 1 Win| 4/1| | -46.25
74.Innocuous | 5th| 5 Dbl| 4/1| | -51.25
75.Glor Na Mara | 2nd| +| +| | -51.25
76.Dhan Dhana | 1st| 2 Win| 7/1| | -37.25

Nulty

Redcar 4.50

Zehoofa 2pt ew @ 10/1 Will Hill

This mare finds it difficult to be unplaced over 1m6f. Only four times from 11 attempts has she missed the ew at this distance. Fortunately she seems to be well weighted from her recent form lines. Simple Jim was behind her last time they met over CD and she now has a 3lb pull. Shes 1lbs lower than her last winning mark and been placed on 4/5 previous starts. Forecast prices ought to make her favorite in my eyes. Shes got the main protagonsts held on known form and she looks ready to win. Shes knows how to and this track seems to her liking so Im going ew just because of the string of placed efforts. I'm confident the stakes will be returned but this could very well be her day having avoided the trickier opposition in the other division of this handicap. Also, Adorn beat her last time by a neck and is up 4lbs so that can be turned around no problem.

Stakes may be doubled if the price is ridiculous.

Theres few others likely to make much of a pace so Zehoofa may have it handy in front. Last time Adorn picked her up after tracking her and another danger Pobs Trophey may want to hang on the coat tails but Zehoofa has much in her favour today and if the pace is reasonable (i.e. Graham Gibbons can ride her well, which he has done in the past) then Shes got a massive chance. I'm liking this mare more and more the closer I look at the race. But it all depends on Gibbons getting it right.

Nulty

Epsom 2.50

Tiger Webb 2pt @ 10/11+ (TBC) Too short - NO BET

Took 10/11 before the off

Holds a Derby entry and ran a very nice looking Gosden Hose to a close finish on his racecourse debut at Lingfield. There is no doubt that this horse should be odds on for this race but I think 10/11 is a very acceptable price but that also must be decided by the market tomorrow. A price of 11/8+ would worry me greatly. Anything below 5/4 and I'm a player. The Gosden horse holds some serious entries this season and seems ready to justify itself as a two year old but Tiger Webb in this company should do the business. Cecil has had a very reasonable two weeks and shows a profit at the track over 5 years, as if that makes a difference when backing a Cecil horse! The field is made up of well bred equines with 3 from Hurrican Run including the selection, 2 Cae Cross and one from promising sire Libranno. None have shown the potential of Tiger Webb and if its to be, then the price will be closer to odds on than not.

Nulty

Giving up, will look at the rest tomorrow

Why isn't there a "tired" emoticon

:pac:

UrbanSea

How come you have a (?) beside 60 Nulty?

Nulty

I spelled her name wrong and cant find the result :P

It took me a while but I tracked her down - Sooraah finished 5th

Nulty

Re: Tiger Webb

**** shouldn't have gone in after the drift

Nulty

Zefooha ran well without being good enough. Bet shes sick of seeing Andorn in the gates at Redcar :P

1/4 the odds so a tiny profit today, better than a kick in the balls. Returns 3pts, less Tiger Webb is 1pt profit. Just thinking about it now...the reverse forecast was the obvious bet and returned 26.25 units. Fook it anyway

Bank: -36.25

UrbanSea

Very dangerous to oppose Balding horses at the moment.

Nulty

It would seem so greetings. To my detriment.

Markab has been dealt a sweet draw at Haydock just two off the rail. Equiano and Paco Boy have been withdrawn and Starspangledbanner is drawn out in the middle of the course. Things are looking good so far. The only water at Haydock will be sold in bottles. 12/1 is still a reasonable price I think with these conditions.

UrbanSea

I'm sticking with my favourite horsey Borderlescott.
I see my other favourite horsey,La De Two,was beaten today.

Nulty

Haydock 2.00

Secrecy 2pts @ 11/4 Paddy Power (GP)

There's some nice horses in this race and its a pretty hot Listed race for it. Middle Park winner Awzaan comes back for his second start this year after injury and Will have to be ready to face the opposition here who are all in great order. Cityscape has had his problems too and hasn't won since 08 and turned over at 4/9f last time. Ought to improve with a clear season and a few runs but this will probably not be his day. If its too fast he won't run. Desert Myth is attractive, and could prove the danger to the selection. No issues with health and waited with for a 3yo debut season. Unexposed but maybe a little inexperienced.

Secrecy has the best form in the race and is going the right way having won a race last time out. 3rd in the Sovereign Stakes two starts back he was beaten by the Champion Stakes hopeful Sea Lord on his way to the top and Poets Voice, winner of the G2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood. Not the strongest G2 ever but a clear winner nonetheless. He won his last at Kempton beating Cecils horse Capital Attraction. That one could be a danger after only 3 runs but the safe option is to go with the proven performer and has never run a bad race.

Nulty

Haydock 2.30

Reignier 1pt ew @ 16/1 VC (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Horrible race to decipher but I've landed on Regnier. 3yo who gets nothing in the way of weight from his elders and isnt the best drawn but tends to outrun his odds. He's been campaigned in Group races finishing second to Radiohead in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot last year. He has ability but whether hes high enough in the weights is open to dispute. Almost amazingly this is his first try in a handicap but the thing that caught my eye was that this is his first start for a "new" trainer and that trainer is Elaine Burke. Since successfully applying to get a licence to trainer for her banned husband, Mrs K Burke is in profit for all runners bar 2yos. Reignier is not the best bet ever but the stables in form and with the change in circumstances perhaps an improved performance will be seen.

Nulty

Leopardstown 3.45

Famous Name .5pts ew @ 22/1 Stan James

Reasoning to follow

My connection keeps dieing so I'll keep this sweet. As I look out my window, five hours before the race is due to start, rain is falling and that can only mean one thing - Famous Name has a chance. Never a Group 1 winner, He's won tonnes of good races at Leopardstown and smashed Steinbeck last time out getting lumps of weight. Second in the premier race for 3yo over a mile and a half in France he missed the break and finished second by a head two years ago and has been campaigned carefully by Dermot Weld and the Master of Rosewell obviously feels its time to take on the best of the best here at Leopardstown.

Aidan O'Brien has said publically that Rip Van Winkle will appreciated fast ground and as I look out my window I see that Rip will not get what his trainer says he wants. The price is falling fast for Famous Name and with conditions in his favour he stands a good chance of finishing in the first two so 22/1 is too big given the circumstances.

Nulty

Famous Name .5pts ew @ 20/1 Bet365

I'l make it an even 1pt ew on Famous Name

UrbanSea

Price of Famous Name just keeps on droppin,the only horse getting backed in the race at the minute.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Betfred Sprint Cup - Saturday

Haydock 3.35

Markab 2pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Markab has improved significantly since he's been campaigned as an out-and-out sprinter. He matched it with Equiano and Kingsgate Native at their best and has the ability for a potential upset at Haydock. Hes won a G3 this year at the Curragh over 6f and finished a good 2nd over 5f at Ascot behind Equiano. I think his experience over longer distances shows hes best over a testing sprint course and Haydock should provide that for him. He has never run there before but the course characteristics could benefit his chances.

The ground is an issue with Markab who finds his best form on fast ground. Rain fell heavily on track last week but the forecast is clear until Saturday. With the going currently Good and 3 days of drying, the ground should pose no problems but the faster the better for him. Trainer Henry Candy hasn't had many runners lately but they have been running consistently.

The draw will play an important part in deciding of the outcome of the race and if Markab gets a good draw then his chances will increase significantly. 16/1 right now looks too big for such a competitive horse with little to suggest he won't be there or thereabouts.

Nulty you bad boy

x PyRo

Good man Nulty, fair play.

Nulty

34pts thank you very much.

Bank: -2.25

UrbanSea

Near the profit now keep going.

scopper

Nulty wrote: »

34pts thank you very much.

Bank: -2.25

Well done. Really impressed with your sticking to it :cool:

Nulty

I decided it was worth looking for :

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?8353-Selections-without-reasoning-**only-thread**&p=200563&viewfull=1#post200563

Thats the race Markab finished 6th in last time. Regal Parade won and High Standing finished second - both soft ground lovers. Excuse was the ground was on the slow side of good after rain early in the day. The going description wasn't changed officially but the jockeys were all complaining about that. And in my analysis of his chances I said he needs fast ground. I'm surprised none of the pundits picked up on it today

UrbanSea

Your new job as a pundit so :P

Nulty

St. Leger (Saturday) Doncaster 3.20

Ted Spread 1pt ew @ 25/1 BoyleSports

Reasoning to follow

Ok, I tipped him last night but I don't have an online BoyleSports account so I had to wait until today to get it on. Best I could get was 20/1 in Paddy Power. He's been slashed into 14/1 with Boyles. I have a feeling that Ted Spead is another Regal Parade. He needs an easy surface to let himself down. By all accounts, the ground will be closer to what he wants than further. He plugs on and on but doesn't seem to show any pace. I attribute this to running on unsuitable ground. He is a stayer and like the main protagonists in the field has not been tried over 1m6f but theres enough about his style of racing at a mile and four to suggest that 25/1 for the Leger is a totally wrong price. Coupled with the turn in the weather, I'm giving Ted Spread a good chance at Doncaster. His trainer is very pleased with his work and although I missed my own price, I'm still happy with 20/1.

Snow Fairy is a doubt after the rain, but Midas, Joshua and Rewilding should be fine on it. Joshua Tree is my second pick at the prices. He was 10/1 last night but decided I'd keep my bullets for another opportunity. It was a promising run when third in the Voltigeur on his return to action. Another reason I couldn't take Joshua Tree is not knowing the plans of O'Brien. He has said that Joshua is aimed at Doncaster now though and a small win bet would not be such a bad idea provided the bounce factor doesn't come into play. I'm sticking with Ted Spread though with plenty of factors in his favour at this point in time. Arctic Cosmos and Dandino are probably best suited to a firmer surface and at the prices I will over look them.

Nulty

Goodwood 3.20

Titus Mills & Big Issue 1pts RFC

These two look better than the rest. Titus Mills made an impressive debut at Ascot and the form of that has not been undone with the second finishing second twice and the third winninng at relatively big odds. The stable are confident in him and think he'll win. They should know the form of Trade Storm after Crown Prosecuter beat him in a G2 and also Surrey Star two starts back. Big Issue has performed well in G3 company recently and should still have more to give. His run behind glor Na Mara looks good but Glor Na Mara has been pretty anti climactic so far. Still his form ties in with Zoffany and must be respected. Big Issue has had a run at the track and run well whereas Titus Mills is unexposed and thought highly of by the stable who have been in cracking form lately. I expect there two to be there at the death.

Gavin "shels"

Nulty wrote: »

Goodwood 3.20

Titus Mills & Big Issue 1pts RFC

3.45


Is RFC Reverse Forecast? Was swinging to the way of Big Issue myself in a Lucky15 (see fancies thread ).

Nulty

Thats just it. Its hard to decide between the two but I'm sure those two will be there. Its difficult to argue with G3 and course form against a once raced colt. RFC was the safest option and should throw up the best return.

Nulty

Man I love Dubawi

:cool:

Nulty

:eek:

.97 pts :P

Bank: -1.28

(Less 2pts Ted Spread)

Nulty

Doncaster 3.10

Moorhouse Lad 1pt @ NO BET (Price too short)

2l and 3.5l off the winner last two starts (G2 and G3 respectively) shows hes not totally spent. Not a massively confident win selection but if the price is right I reckon he's a bet. He has decent for at Doncaster and has finished 3rd and 7th in this race in the past. His 3rd came on Soft ground behind Galeota two years ago. That was the first of his last three efforts on ground with the word Soft in the going description. His next race under easy conditions was a second behind Marchand D'Or in the Abbaye and next a second behind Wi Dud (Mud Lover!) in April. The form of that race isn't anything special but his recent efforts suggest he's in better form now and possibly has favourable conditions.