Fresh start

Nulty

Doncaster 4.50

Carnaby Street .5pts ew @ 25/1 (1/4 odds, 3 places) Paddy Power

Trainer says he needs soft ground, pedigree says he needs soft ground, race record says he needs soft ground. Actually his pedigree tells me he would be a good swimmer. Group 3 winner last year over 7f on soft ground but then that Group3 has turned out rather poor. Iver Bridge Lad has come out and contested the top G1 sprints but nothing much else has excelled. Carnaby Streets last two starts were on GF and he was comprehensively smashed. He breaks and travells well but seems to have enough after 5.5f. I will guess that he gets sore at that point but thats just conjecture. He ran 6l behind Bekhebad in France on good but probably still wants it softer. Jockey bookings put Kajima as the more fancied from Hannons stable but Jimmy Fortune was on board in France and the G3 win.

25/1 may look a deserved price come the end of the race but this looks an opportunity and a small stake is enough.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Doncaster 3.10

Moorhouse Lad 1pt @ TBC

I wanted about 16/1 for value. Its hard to decide whether the current price of 12/1 is any value due to the NRs. The NRs weren't market leaders so the selections chances are hardly improved too much. I think much of price change has to do with real support for the horse which is a positive but I can't take anything below 16/1. Thats the line I'm drawing and trying to stick to it because its a tough race.

Nulty

Non-betting selections for interest:

Doncaster:

2.00 Byronic @ 10/1
2.35 Dubawi Gold @ 3/1
3.10 Moorhouse Lad @ 12/1
3.45 Aflaam @ 10/1
4.20 Al Zir @ 15/8
5.20 Marvelous Value @ 20/1

UrbanSea

Might go for Dubawi Gold myself.

Nulty

This will probably be my olny bet of the day but there will be more than one selection

Doncaster 5.25

This is a mad race. The average winning price is 17.3/1. The meeting was at York in 2006 so its technically 9 races. There have been three 25/1, two 20/1 a 16/1, a 12/1, an 8/1 and a 5/1f winner. Not one for favorite-backers then. If it was hard to find the winner in all those years (bar Main Aims win) it hasn't got any easier. I like the look of about 10 of them but can probably narrow it down to three and then one. Double figure prices are a must here, preferably towards 20/1. Top winning weight was 9-4 (5/1f & 8/1) of the last 10yrs so I'll ignore everything above that. Kevin Ryan seems to have a penchant for running horses in this and does relatively well. He sends in the well fancied Roker Park but he's just too short at 8/1. 3yos have won it 4 times so they are of interest. After this it gets hard to rule horses out so I'm going on form. I'm going to have to make the picks in the morning when the prices are available...

Nulty

Just found out Segal tipped Moorhouse Lad yesterday at 16/1. I must be doing something right. Hes a either brave or stupid if he tries to pick the winner of the 5.25 today!

The Ground wasn't soft enough for either of my selections. I didn't realise Doncaster is one of the most free draining tracks in the UK. But we all do now.

Nulty

Doncaster 5.25

The three I've chosen are:

Spitfire 1pt ew @ 18/1 SkyBet (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)
Kieran Fallon on board whos been walking horses in to the winners enclosure the past two weeks. He was the last to win on the horse on its seasonal debut and only 2lbs higher now. Spitfire has CD form winning his maiden at 25/1 on GF ground. 2l behind the favorite for the Portland two starts back and fits the stats well.

Boogie Diva 1pt ew @ 33/1 BoyleSports (1/4 Odds, 4 Places) (GP)
Unexposed filly who got off the mark on her only start at 6f at Windsor. Stepped back up to 7f on her next start and was winning at the furlong poll but lacked stamina. Back at 6f she could easily out run her odds and take this. Sire Tobougg dual G1 winner on GS so should go on any ground.

Ancient Cross 1pt ew @ 18/1 SkyBet (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)
Graham Gibbons and Mick Easterby have a pretty solid strike rate together. It averages around the 25% mark and their partnership results in profit over the last 5 years and 64pts LSP. Easterby hasn't won this race but the pair placed last year with Atlantic Story last year and Ancient Cross has a record of 242 over 6f and doesn't lack speed. He ought to be staying on at the death.

Theres still about twelve I'm not backing. This is as hard as the Grand National.

Nulty

Fook it. Ruled out the first and the second because of the stats.

Ancient Cross returns 3.5pts profit which makes it a .5pt loss for the day.


Bank: -2.78

argosy2006

That was a tough one to call, why try , good challenge >?

argosy2006

could u put up four tips for my 8 fold bet tomorrow, four ur not going to use on here
or pm me 4

Nulty

Doncaster 2.40

Motrice 2pts @ 5/1 Paddy Power

Reasoning tomorrow. I've got a really bed headache and I'm sure you all care.

x PyRo

I care, babe.

:pac:

Gavin "shels"

Nulty wrote: »

Reasoning tomorrow. I've got a really bed headache and I'm sure you all care.

Hate bed headaches, those ones you get when you're asleep for 10 hours and wake up and lazy around then finally stand up.:D

Nulty

I was in a bad way last night. Got a tooth pulled yesterday. I meant to say BAD headache but I guess I was just despeate to go to bed

:pac:

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Doncaster 2.40

Motrice 2pts @ 5/1 Paddy Power

Reasoning tomorrow. I've got a really bed headache and I'm sure you all care.

Prescotts had Hooray and Motrice as his only Group horses so far this year. Hooray has struck twice and Motrice was staying on strikingly over 14f at Goodwood last time. The step up in trip is going to suit for sure today but the step up in class will not be easy. She is getting 18lbs from most of her rivals and 21lbs from Opinion Poll. Shes only carrying 7-12 so luckily they found a good jockey able to do the weight in S. DeSousa who has ridden for Prescott on a few occasions this year has an LSP with the trainer. Over the longer distances the weight differential ought to give Motrice every chance and her previous performance at Goodwood suggests she relish the trip.

Nulty

Doncaster 3.50

Imperial Guest 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes (14/ Odds, 4 Places) (GP)

Enjoys an easy going surface and its raining a little at Doncaster so the ground should be kind. Has threatened to win one of these big handcaps this year and I was on at Ascot iirc. He's probably stretched by 7f so this extended 6f could be right up his street. On the best of his efforts he is quite a fast horse and will need to find that speed again today if he's going to win. The weather will not favour many of the field but Imperial Guests form on the ground means hes got an edge. He'll have to come off a steady pace according to one pace analyst but forgiving his last effort, I'll chance that he's lit up by the large field and well able to place.

Nulty

Doncaster 2.05

Desert Sea 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Still 16 in this and hopefully they all go off. Desert Sea put in a decent performance in the Ebor and has come down a couple of pounds for that. This is no Ebor and so he should have a very good chance of making the places at least.

Cant look at a computer screen any more...headache is back

Nulty

-1pt for the day

Bank: -3.78

Nulty

Doncaster 3.55

Himalya 1pt ew @ 25/1 StanJames (GP)

Noseda has been vociferous in placing this horse in at the deep end. Both his efforts in group company have come on Good to Soft whic his pedigree would indicate he would excel on. But his best runs have actually come on a firmer surface and tomorrows Good ground may suit him well. None of his opponents here are very reliable and it is very possible that he could snatch a place if he runs to his best. If any of the more fancied runners underperform then he could have a chance of winning. Hes still relatively young and may have some improvement in him. With the stable in form and the persistance of the trainer to test the horse in G2 company I think its worth chancing him at odds of 25/1.

Nulty

Chester 3.35

Les Fazzani 3pts @ 7/2 Paddy Power (GP)

Hes struggled in group races on his last few starts but will find this much easier and has shown he knows his way around the track finishing second to Debussy in May. Going by her listed win in May at Haydock she ought to have a favorites chance in this race. Pollys Mark, Rosika and Barshiba have come out and run well since that race. It could be very soft at Chester and Les Fazzani has the best soft form in the race while co-favorite Harris Tweed is unproven on it. He's progressive but your taking a chance on him handling to tight track and the soft ground. 7/2 is worth taking when you know you'll get a good run for your money. Pacqueretza looks too big at 18/1.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

St. Leger (Saturday) Doncaster 3.20

Ted Spread 1pt ew @ 25/1 BoyleSports

Lack of rain has made this an un-value bet. Looks like I'm up ****creek without a paddle. I'll be suprised if I get a return out of it now. This is Ante Post betting!

Nulty

Curragh 3.45

Sans Frontiers 4pts @ 9/4 Bet365

Can't get away from the form of his last two races. Redwood and Laaheb have come out and won their next races and the form of those looks solid with the other runners finishing respectively behind them both at Kempton (Laaheb, Holberg), Goodwood (Redwood) & Deauville (Redwood), Arlington (Tazeez - who finished 1.5l behind Byword & Twice Over previously at Ascot). He's had his injury problems in the past and has come back to show the class he had as a three year old. Although its heresay, I heard Fallon fancied him for the Derby before his injury last year. Thats irrelevant now (STS!) but shows that Fallon thought hugely of him. He started slowly this year but has been fulfilling those high expectations and seems to be getting better fr the step up in trip. He's proven at 15f and is likely to handle the softish ground at the Curragh.

There are some unknowns in the race but he sets a massive standard and we can only really trust the form in this game. His form is the best and the connections are confident. They've booked Peslier and everything looks set for a winning run.

Nulty

Bank: +5.47

:cool:

77.Tiger Webb | 2nd| 2 Win| 10/11| | -39.25
78.Zefooha | 2nd| 2 ew| 10/1| | -36.25
77.Secrecy | 2nd| 2 WIN| 11/4| | -38.25
78.Reignier | 12th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -40.25
79.Famous Name | 6th| .5 ew| 22/1| | -41.25
80.Famous Name | 6th| .5 ew| 20/1| | -42.25
81.Markab | 1st| 2 ew| 16/1| | -2.25
82.Titus Mills | 1st| -| 2.97| 1 RFC| -
82.Big Issue | 2nd| -| -| | -1.28
83.Carnaby Street | 7th| .5 ew| 25/1| | -2.28
84.Spitfire | 13th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -4.28
85.Boogie Diva | 11th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -6.28
86.Ancient Cross | 3rd| 1 ew| 18/1| | -2.78
87.Motrice | 3rd| 2 Win| 5/1| | -4.78
88.Desert Sea | 15th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -6.78
89.Imperial Guest | 2nd| 1 ew| 16/1| | -3.78
90.Ted Spread | 10th| 1 ew| 25/1| | -5.78
91.Les Fazzani | 2nd| 3 Win| 7/2| | -8.78
92.Sans Frontiers | 1st| 4 Win| 9/4| | +0.22
93.Himalya | 3rd| 1 ew| 25/1| | +5.47

Nulty

Cambridgshire

Nationalism 1pt ew @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Had to be quick there:D

Into 10/1 :cool:

Nulty

It seems pretty lame including Nationalism but I got the bet on but no one else had a chance if they fancied it at the prices. He's available at 14/1 with ToteSport. This is a log though...

I'm giving my brain a break. I'll browse cards until next weekend but no more. If something jumps out I'll bite.

x PyRo

Great stuff mate, welcome to the profit making club. :pac:

Nulty

Theres a few interesting races Tuesday.

Pity the price was taken early about Lucky Numbers at Haydock. I would have taken 10/1. I'm tempted by Equeluus Pictor again but would rather the 8/1 Will Hill were offering earlier. Daryl Holland is 1/1 for J Spearing. Check prices tomorrow

Nulty

Lingfield 3.20

Art Man 1pt ew @ 10/1 Paddy Power

Has a good record at the track and has been off hurdling lately witch tends to improve a horse in my experience. Was 12/1 just before he opening show but maybe should be a bit shorter than 10/1 if he's ready to compete. With so many of these seeminly out of form maybe the return to the polytrack can get him in the frame at least

Nulty

Haydock 4.00

Lucky Numbers 1pt @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

Loves soft ground and is surely given a better chance that the odds suggest. It is an obvious worry that there has been no support for him. He's won at the course but disappointed on GF ground last time but thats excused. Has won on GS Soft and Heavy ground so conditions will be favourable. Only worry is that he'll need a career best to take this but is worth taking a chance on at the prices.