Fresh start

Nulty

Sandown 4.05

Dandy Boy 2pts @ 9/2

Has performed well in two G3s on either side of the Sea. Less than a length behind an relatively comfortable Beethoven last time, he finished third in a G3 at the Curragh in July and the form of that isn't working out too bad. The 2nd Duff was less than a length behind Balthazars Gift in a G2 at Doncaster over the weekend and the 5th was 2nd beaten a neck at the Curragh on Sunday. This just qualifies him for the race really but his price of 9/2 is a bit big considering he is still improving. I don't think Dubai form transfers well to the European season and Skysurfers hasn't convinced me that hes improving enough to be half the price of Marnanes horse. Colm O'Donoghue travels for the ride and Marnane has a healthy LSP for raiding the UK. Excusing the blip at Ascot when he was trapped out in the middle of the course on the worst part of the track, he must have a good chance in a fairly balanced listed race. Penitent is a big danger and I expect him to be the main danger and the one to win if Dandy Boy doesn't come up to scratch.

UrbanSea

That was a very hot race for a listed.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

That was a very hot race for a listed.

Yep, Dandy Boy disappointed me though. I didn't think he had a favorites chance but I didn't expect him to come last either. I dropped into a bookies in town to watch it and he missed the break awfully.

Remember I told you how when I pick a selection and a danger, the danger always wins....:P

UrbanSea

I'd pick out everyone bar the horse that wins it as dangers.

Nulty

Ayr Gold Cup (Saturday 3.20)

Noverre To Go 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

Ross Atkinson taking 5 off his back means hes down to below his last winning mark when he beat the G2 placing Himalya at Newmarket. I can't work out why hes such a big price. Its eerie..

Kaldoun Kingdom 1pt ew @ 25/1 BlueSquare (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

Ran a brilliant race at York in July. He's 2/3 at Ayr and is certainly better than his Stewards Cup run. He goes on any ground and looks to have a decent chance with the Biscuit on board. Winner of last years Silver Cup.

I'd like Parisian Pyramid and Prime Exhibit (both 33/1) to run well. Likeable horses IMO. Maybe even bets at those prices

Nulty

Ayr Bronze Cup 4.30

Mastership 1pt ew @ 33/1 Sporting Bet (1/4 Odds, 5 Places)

4th in the Silver Cup last year and including todays claim he is 13lbs lower than he was that day. Has had two runs this season and will probably strip fitter for today. He's nearly a stone lower in the weights and maybe set up for Ayr. Not the fastest of horses but will enjoy the pace set by such a big field. Worth a chance that he performs well today.

Nulty

Bank: 6.72

In Play:
1pt ew Nationalism
1pt ew Noverre To Go
1pt ew Kaldoun Kingdom

UrbanSea

I was seriously considering having a bet on Kaldoun Kingdom,but don't want to have two losers in the same race.

UrbanSea

Dhana Dhana running now at twenty past,one you've backed.

Nulty

I have her in tracker Greetings. Didn't want to back her first time on poly. Good thing too by the looks of things.

Pressing up on Ayr Gold Cup selections

Noverre To Go 1pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places) (GP)

Kaldoun Kingdom 1pt ew @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/4 Odds, 5 Places) (GP)

Nulty

Newbury 2.30

Crown Prsecutor 1pt @ 3/1 Lads (GP)

Brian Meehan horse ran a good race against Approve in a G2 last time. Meehan is going well at the moment not least his juveniles. Looks best suited to 6f for now and if running to last ratings should be right there.

Nulty

Newbury 3.05

Thin Red Line 1pt ew @ 20/1 VC (GP)

Backed this at Yorktime before last and showed he was worth a try when 3rd behind Senate at Doncaster. Drops back to 10f now and has good form over the trip. Martin Lane is claiming 3 which puts him 2lbs above his last winning mark. Chance taken that he has more to give.

Nulty

Bank: -4.28

x PyRo

Unlucky today mate, terrible day for the punter, brilliant for the bookmaker.

Nulty

Northern Dancer
Woodbine 9.34

Redwood 1pt @ 3/1 PP

Debussy winning the Arlington Million shows the difference in class between turf horses in North America and those in the UK and Ireland. Redwood has great form behind the Irish Leger winner Sans Frontier and in the Hardwicke. The form looks solid on this side of the pond and Redwood could be undersetimated over in Canada tonight. Dangerous not knowing the quality of the opposition but if Paddy O'Prada can't beat Debussy then Redwood should take care of these is he can produce his form after the jouney over.

Nulty

Actually going to add a point.

Redwood 1pt @ 3/1 PP

Nulty

Get In!

Bank: 1.72

Nulty

Beverley 3.30

Captain Dunne .72pts @ 5/2 WH (GP)

Captain Dunne won this last year. David Allan rides this year as he did last year and the horse has been running very well in Listed race the last twice. One of those races here at Beverley so the horse seems to have a penchent for the venue. Up against an eagerly awaited Tax Free who has been pulled out of two races he was likely to go off favorite for. Rivals look out of the reckoning with poor form this year and/or weighted out of contention. I'm no mathematician but I'd have him at 7/4

Nulty

QEII Ascot (Saturday)

Makfi 1pt @ 5/2 PP

Reasoning to follow

Nulty

After 100 bets that were actually staked (2 withdrawn and 1 no market) I'm just about back to where I started .
There were a few ridiculous ones like the 5pt double...I wasn't my self that day!
203.5pts staked
1.72 profit.
ROI = 100.8452% :rolleyes:

Results:
Bold = Winner
Red = Each Way return

1. Vainglory| 5th| 1 Win| 16/1| | -1
2. Workforce| 5th| 5 Win| 1/1| | -6
3. Himalya| 3rd| 3 Win| 12/1| | -9
4. Monitor Closely| 7th| 1 Win| 11/2| | -10
5. Harrison George| 3rd| 3 Win| 11/2| | -13
6. Judge n' Jury| 16th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -15
7. Black Baccara| 3rd| 2 Win| 7/2| | -17
8. Gee Dee Nen| 15th| 1 ew| 20/1| | -19
9. Beethoven | 4th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -21
10.Aussie Blue| 6th| 1 Win| 7/1| | -22
11.Micky Mac| 2nd| 1 Win| 15/2| | -23
12.Mister Manannan| 13th| 1 Win| 20/1| | -24
13.Age Of Aquarius| PU| -| 11/8| 1 Win| -26
13.Flying Cloud| 4th| -| 11/4| +|
14.Bagamoyo| 7th| 1 Win| 9/1| | -27
15.Aye Aye Digby| 11th| 1 ew| 25/1| | -29
16.Spectait| 17th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -31
17.Webbow| 3rd| 3 ew| 12/1| | -28
18.Tabassum| 7th| 2 ew| 8/1| | -30
19.Wadnaan| 5th| 1 Win| 5/1| | -31
20.Midday| 1st| 1 Win| 9/4| | -28.25
21.Kaldoun Kingdom| 22nd| 1 ew| 20/1| | -31.25
22.Parisian Pyramid| 21st| 1 ew| 22/1| | -33.25
23.Treadwell| 8th| 1 Win| 7/2| | -34.25
24.Rumoush (No Market)| 3rd| 2 Win| ?| | -34.25
25.Prime Exhibit| 19th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -36.25
26.Queens Grace| 9th| 1 Win| 7/2| | -37.25
27.Pachattack| 1st| 1 Win| 5/1| | -32.25
28.Hen Night| 1st| 1 Win| 10/1| | -22.25
29.Acclaimed| 2nd| 1 Win| 12/1| | -23.25
30.Oondiri| 5th| 1 Win| 15/8| | -24.25
31.Admirable Duque| 3rd| 1 Win| 11/1| | -25.25
32.Desert Ben| 2nd| 1 ew| 8/1| | -24.25
33.Come and Go| 6th| 1 ew| 10/1| | -25.25
34.Colorus| 6th| 2 Win| 9/2| | -27.25
35.Cheam Forever| 7th| 1 ew| 11/1| | -29.25
36.Blue Charm| 11th| 1 ew| 12/1| | -31.25
37.Interakt| 8th| 1 Win| 12/1| | -32.25
38.Phluke| 3rd| 1 Win| 11/2| | -33.25
39.Jet Away| 1st| 3 Win| 9/4| | -26.5
40.Khor Sheed| 3rd| 2 Win| 5/2| | -30
41.Scamperdale| 7th| 2 Win| 4/1| | -32
42.Invincible Ash| NR| 3 Win| 6/1| | -32
43.Dhan Dhana| 6th| 5 Win| 5/6| | -37
44.Beethoven| 1st| 2 Win| 2/1| | -33
45.Noverre To Go| NR| 2 ew| 12/1| | -33
46.Shifting Star | NR| 1 ew| 25/1| | -33
47.Damika| 1st| 1 ew| 20/1| | -8
48.Brierty| 4th| 4 ew| 7/1| | -16
49.Kite Wood| 7th| 3 Win| 3/1| | -19
50.Makfi| 1st| 1 ew| 9/1| | -7.75
51.Demolition| 16th| 1 ew| 20/1| | -9.75
52.Cutlass Bay| 7th| .5 Win| 33/1| | -10.75
53.Oldjoesaid| 10th| .25 ew| 33/1| | -11.25
54.Monterosso | 5th| 1 Win| 8/1| | -12.25
55.Thin Red Line| 6th| 1 ew| 22/1| | -14.25
56.Akmal| 7th| 1 Win| 9/1| | -15.25
57.Dubawi Gold| 11th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -17.25
58.Desert Sea| 5th| .5 ew| 28/1| | -18.25
59.Soorah | 5th| 2 Win| 5/2| | -20.25
60.Snow Fairy| 2nd| 1 RFC| 5/2| | -22.25
60.Sariska | RR| +| 85/40| | -
61.Balcarce Nov| 7th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -24.25
62.Ceilidh House| 9th| 1 Win| 9/1| | -25.25
63.Above Limits| 12th| 2 ew| 18/1| | -29.25
64.Montparnasse | 5th| 2 Win| 11/1| | -31.25
65.Kings Gambit| 3rd| 2 Win| 9/1| | -33.25
66.Equiano | 12th| 4 Win| 16/1| | -37.25
67.Al Muqbil| 2nd| 1 Win| 5/2| | -38.25
68.Al Muqbil| 2nd| 2 Win| 2/1| | -40.25
69.Invincible Ash | 6th| 2 Win| 9/1| | -42.25
70.Himalya | 3rd| 3 Win| 11/4| | -45.25
71.Laughing Lashes | 2nd| 1 Win| 4/1| | -46.25
72.Innocuous | 5th| 5 Dbl| 4/1| | -51.25
73.Glor Na Mara | 2nd| +| +| | -51.25
74.Dhan Dhana | 1st| 2 Win| 7/1| | -37.25
75.Tiger Webb | 2nd| 2 Win| 10/11| | -39.25
76.Zefooha | 2nd| 2 ew| 10/1| | -36.25
77.Secrecy | 2nd| 2 Win| 11/4| | -38.25
78.Reignier | 12th| 1 ew| 16/1| | -40.25
79.Famous Name | 6th| .5 ew| 22/1| | -41.25
80.Famous Name | 6th| .5 ew| 20/1| | -42.25
81.Markab | 1st| 2 ew| 16/1| | -2.25
82.Titus Mills | 1st| -| 2.97| 1 RFC| -2.25
82.Big Issue | 2nd| -| -| | -1.28
83.Carnaby Street | 7th| .5 ew| 25/1| | -2.28
84.Spitfire | 13th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -4.28
85.Boogie Diva | 11th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -6.28
86.Ancient Cross | 3rd| 1 ew| 18/1| | -2.78
87.Motrice | 3rd| 2 Win| 5/1| | -4.78
88.Desert Sea | 15th| 1 ew| 18/1| | -6.78
89.Imperial Guest | 2nd| 1 ew| 16/1| | -3.78
90.Ted Spread | 10th| 1 ew| 25/1| | -5.78
91.Les Fazzani | 2nd| 3 Win| 7/2| | -8.78
92.Sans Frontiers | 1st| 4 Win| 9/4| | +0.22
93.Himalya | 3rd| 1 ew| 25/1| | +5.47
94.Art Man | 7th| 1 ew| 10/1| | +3.47
95.Lucky Numbers | 4th| 1 Win| 14/1| | +2.47
96.Dandy Boy | 6th| 2 Win| 9/2| | +0.47
97.Mastership | 3rd| 1 ew| 33/1| | +6.72
98.Noverre To Go | 26th| 2 ew| 25/1| | +2.72
99.Kaldoun Kingdom | 7th| 1 ew| 25/1| | +0.72
100.Kaldoun Kingdom | 7th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -1.28
101.Crown Prosecutor | 3rd| 1 Win| 3/1| | -2.28
102.Thin Red Line | 7th| 1 ew| 33/1| | -4.28
103.Redwood | 1st| 2 Win| 3/1| | +1.72

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Beverley 3.30

Captain Dunne .72pts @ 5/2 WH (GP)

Captain Dunne won this last year. David Allan rides this year as he did last year and the horse has been running very well in Listed race the last twice. One of those races here at Beverley so the horse seems to have a penchent for the venue. Up against an eagerly awaited Tax Free who has been pulled out of two races he was likely to go off favorite for. Rivals look out of the reckoning with poor form this year and/or weighted out of contention. I'm no mathematician but I'd have him at 7/4

Beaten into 2nd by a 33/1 shot of Bryan Smarts...

Bank: 1

In Play:
Nationalism 1 ew
Makfi 1 Win

Nulty

Goodwood 4.55

Dromore 1pt ew @ 20/1 PP (GP)

Andrew Baldings team are going very well right now and he has had some big price inners lately. This is a hot race to be picking an outsider in with two very unexposed horses from Gosden and Noseda but that just makes the prices of the res more interesting. Dromore is rated 10lbs lower on the turf than on the AW where he's won over 10f in April. He ran well at Goodwood over 11f in July and only ever seemed like staying on in a 16 runner handicap at the Glorious meeting. He finished 3rd that day going up 2 lbs but is effectively 3lbs lower for the claim of Simon Pearce. He disappointed last time on what many might consider his prefered AW but forgiving that run, a return to his potentially prefered Goodwood and an extra furlong makes 20/1 that little bit more interesting. Given Baldings form and a similar going tomorrow I'm willing to risk a point ew and hope that he returns to the form that saw him place here before off a higher mark.

Nulty

45% Rule 4

1.2pts profit

Bank: 2.2

UrbanSea

I was wondering how it went to 7/1,didn't see a rule 4. Still,nice place.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

QEII Ascot (Saturday)

Makfi 1pt @ 5/2 PP

Reasoning to follow

Whats to say....he shouldn't have been such a bigger price than Canford Cliffs. Simple as that. The Guineas winner has only been beaten once and that was when he had a throat infection. A superb horse that continues to be underrated much like Canford was before he showed everyone that a mile was no bother to him. I got 9/1 about him in his last race when he smashedPaco Boy and Goldikova in France. Although he was more suited to the ground that prevailed there he did it with real class and discounting the run before that, he beat no less than 6 Group 1 winners in a vintage 2000 Guineas on Good to Firm ground. I would have been on earlier but as soon as the news came through that he was headed for Ascot and in "the best form of his career" according to Delzangles, it was a no brainer. Small stake but a sttake nonetheless. Makfi for a 3rd G1 and perhaps what should be his 4th.

Nulty

Challenge Cup Ascot Saturday 3.40

Mia's Boy 2pts ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes

His last two starts have left plenty to desire but Mias Boy has plenty going for him in this race provided the draw is kind to him. For a start, all his career starts at 7f read 312212229. Still an entire horse, he goes on any ground although maybe best with a little give in the ground, probably genuinely good ground would be favourable and its likely thats whats he'll get on Saturday. Adam Biscuits gets the leg up and takes 5lbs off. This is only the second time in his career that Mia's Boy is ridden by a claimer and considering his record that is pretty impressive having contested these tough handicaps for over 2 years with a rating north of 100. Off his current mark of 103 he'll race with his lowest mark in those 2 years which amounts to effectively 98. He's been off the track since an uncharacteristic display in the Royal Hunt Cup where he would have carried 7lbs more than on Saturday. The break will have done him good and he'll be ready for a big effort come Saturday. With the jockey booked for the ride he's an almost certain starter so that takes some of the pressure off the selection.

Trainer C A Dwyer had a winner this afternoon with Rough Rock and guess who was riding...looks like a winner to me.

Not that it counts for much but the horse will be running as always in the same colours Dangerous Midge who smashed Rainbow Peak and others in the G3 Arc Trial at Newbury recently.

(Also it's weird that he's called Mia's Boy...Mia is Boy?:P)

EDIT:
Apparently it's a Possessive Apostrophe. Bloody complicated language!

Nulty

Challenge Cup Ascot Saturday 3.40

Swift Gift 1pt ew @ 33/1 VC

I've been keen on this fella in all his races this term. My concern is that he has been to Meydan and that tends to put me off backing a horse. I really wanted to see a claimer like Dale Swift on his back for this race but I guess if you can't get a claimer then the current champion jockey will have to do!

More to follow

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

QEII Ascot (Saturday)

Makfi 1pt @ 5/2 PP

Reasoning to follow

Nulty wrote: »

Whats to say....he shouldn't have been such a bigger price than Canford Cliffs. Simple as that. The Guineas winner has only been beaten once and that was when he had a throat infection. A superb horse that continues to be underrated much like Canford was before he showed everyone that a mile was no bother to him. I got 9/1 about him in his last race when he smashedPaco Boy and Goldikova in France. Although he was more suited to the ground that prevailed there he did it with real class and discounting the run before that, he beat no less than 6 Group 1 winners in a vintage 2000 Guineas on Good to Firm ground. I would have been on earlier but as soon as the news came through that he was headed for Ascot and in "the best form of his career" according to Delzangles, it was a no brainer. Small stake but a sttake nonetheless. Makfi for a 3rd G1 and perhaps what should be his 4th.

Canford Cliffs is out. Makfi will go close to even money if not odds on

Nulty

Ascot 3.45

Brushing 2pt @ 12/1 PP (GP)

Come through the handicap this year impressively rising 32lbs in the process. Her last win two starts back was her best effort to date and the last run was probably over an unsuitable distance. She was sent off at 33/1 but at the two furlong pole she was making good ground on the leaders when she found no racing room, checked out and weakened due to the trip. Back at this distance I think she can have a say. This is a 2 classes below that last run but she faces many of the rivals from that day who have similar excuses for the trip. One thing certainly in her favour though is a return to the partnership with Kieron Fallon. He was on board on that penultimate run and win over 12f at York where she returned with an SP of 20/1.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Challenge Cup Ascot Saturday 3.40

Mia's Boy 2pts ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes

The draw wasn't kind to Mia's Boy and he's drawn low with no really fancied ones around him and it looks like a pace graveyard there too. I'll pray Kakatosi comes near side. He drifted a notch out to 40/1 with Lads this morning after the draw but he's into 20/1 now. Odd market there. Still 40/1 with Bet365.