Fresh start

Nulty

Ascot 4.20

Excelent Guest .5pts ew @ 22/1 VC (GP)

The late John Guests runners have been going well lately and I always keep my eye out for them in these big handicaps. Off bottom weight I think he can make an impression here. Not the pace for 6f he could do well over the 7f which he hasn't tried in a good while. Quite a speculative one but the price never reflects Guests horses chances.

ghosttown

Great pick ! The log makers here all doing very well these days, yourself Pyro / Horsebox / Coughlan.....kinda daunting now for me to start one, but will do within the next month once i have the funds up and NH gets up and going !:)

Nulty

Thanks ghost. Haven't seen your around in a while. Look at my log history...I went to -50pts before it started clicking. I'd like to see your bets, I'm sure your better than the GG.com thing

Bank: 13.95

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Ascot 4.20

Excelent Guest .5pts ew @ 22/1 VC (GP)

The late John Guests runners have been going well lately and I always keep my eye out for them in these big handicaps. Off bottom weight I think he can make an impression here. Not the pace for 6f he could do well over the 7f which he hasn't tried in a good while. Quite a speculative one but the price never reflects Guests horses chances.

What a beauty.

x PyRo

Brilliant shout mate, well done. Gives you a nice little comfort zone to kick on from here. Wonderful price too.

Nulty

Cheers lads. Covers my in-play bets for now.

Nulty

Ascot Challenge Cup 3.45

Imperial Guest 1pt ew @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

I can't help picking this horse. My two other selections are drawn middle and low so to balance things out here I've gone for a high drawn horse and one whos given me a return before. As mentioned before in the thread I keep an eye out for the late John Guests horses especially in these handicaps and while I cant back every horse in the race I can make an exception to make it three selections in the race. George Margasson won a 14 runner handicap yesterday at the track with Excellent Guest and similarly named Imperial Guest makes appeal from his performance in the Buckingham Palace stakes over course and distance at the Royal meeting. His last effort was great at Doncaster and has less than a length to find on a winning mark. Drawn well where there should be a relatively high level of pace I hope he can get a carriage into the race and finish like he has done before at Ascot.

Nulty

Ascot 5.25

Aaim To Prosper 1pt ew @ 11/2 BlueSquare

A very consistent horse who is admittadly off a stiff mark but the attractive thing to me here is his record both on softish ground and his record at Ascot. He's won twice on ground on the soft side and always puts in an effort. At Ascot he's had 4 runs and never finished outside the top three winning on one occasion. Stepping down in grade from a Group 3 where he was ot of his depth over a trip that didn't suit I think he can produce a performance consistent with his record and at least place with Frankie Dettori on his back.

Nulty

Haydock 2.35

Becausewecan 1pt ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Down to a competitive mark, one pound below his last winning one. He ran a week ago over a furlong shorter and didn't have the pace to win so an extra furlong and sapping conditions could bear fruits for Johnstons stayer. He's won on Soft and Heavy ground and maybe its this type of ground that his performances have been suffering for. It was a very dry summer and this is his first chance on an easy surface. Handicapped to win after 11 failed attempts this season and could get off the mark today.

Nulty

Haydock 3.10

Damika 1pt ew @ 20/1 Ladbrokes(1/4 Odds, 4 Places)

Totally different horse on Soft ground. Shouldn't have raced in the Ayr Gold Cup. That was only 7 days ago and arguments can be made for and against that experiences effect on his chances today. The thing that draws me to this one is his form on soft ground. I will totally ignore any run he's made on ground better than GS lately. He's won over course and distance two years ago on soft ground off 99 and he's still 2lbs lower today. Whittakers horses are running brilliantly for such a small stable and Michael Stainton gets on brilliantly with the horse. Definitely worth a shot at 20/1.

Nulty

Not enough time to go through the rest of the cards.

If I get a return from today I might look at the evening fixture at Wolves but it could be hard after watching the quality of racing on this afternoon

Nulty

I have a free bet in my account that needs using by 3PM today so I've invested it in Makfi in the BC Mile.

Churchill Downs - Breeders Cup Mile

Makfi 5pts @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Crushing 5th for Swift Gift and completely drawn out of the race was Mias Boy. Excellent Guest 3rd.

EDIT:
:eek:

Wait! I forgot I backed it with Victor Chandler! 5 Places! 5 Places! 5 Places!!

:pac:

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Ascot 5.25

Aaim To Prosper 1pt ew @ 11/2 BlueSquare

A very consistent horse who is admittadly off a stiff mark but the attractive thing to me here is his record both on softish ground and his record at Ascot. He's won twice on ground on the soft side and always puts in an effort. At Ascot he's had 4 runs and never finished outside the top three winning on one occasion. Stepping down in grade from a Group 3 where he was ot of his depth over a trip that didn't suit I think he can produce a performance consistent with his record and at least place with Frankie Dettori on his back.

I'm under no illusion that the reason for the move to 7/2 has everything to do with Frankie Dettori!

Nulty

Bank: 17.35

Nulty

Ascot 4.45

Himalya 2pt ew @ 14/1

Very consistent gelding who's made the transfer from handicapper to Group horse pretty well. Noseda was right to maintain confidence in him when going straight for G2 and G3 races. Having placed or finishing just outside the places in all those Group race attempts I think that 14/1 is just too big. There will be a little cut out there tomorrow and while he doesn't like a bog he handles ground on the softer side. considering his last race he must have claims here and in three races at Ascot he's finished 4/18, 2/26, 3/21. He's normally a 7f horse but the ground will make it easier for him to compete against horses who will be 6f specialists.

PS
Dalghar and Lady of the Desert are dropping back in trip like Himaly and those will be the ones to beat

Nulty

Musselburgh 3.25

Berbice 1pt ew @ 25/1 VC

Even at the best of times it is very hard to win with this horse. Richard Hannon only managed to do it once in about 15 starts. He is now 1lbs below his last winning mark which came on the poly at Kempton under Richard Hughes. Having once been rated 107 as a 2yo, he's fallen from grace. Linda Perrat has had him for three starts so far after taking over from Sylvester Kirk and he's done well enough at the Northern tracks, including placing over Course and Distance two starts back off the same mark. Perrat puts James Sullivan on today claiming 3lbs and now knowing that Berbice will handle the track, 25/1 about this horse seems very over priced to me. Fair enough he's only won once on turf but he's showing a semblance of form again and it looks a good opportunity to give him a chance at rewarding odds and with a good draw.

Nulty

Musselburgh 4.00

Harriet's Girl 1pt @ 7/1 SportingBet

Moved yards lately to the wife of banned trainer Kevin Burke and she has eeked a career best out of the daughter of Choisir last time out. She seems to be still on the improve and her breeding suggests there could well be more to come. I think the price has something to do with her one run on GS ground. From the form, it looks as if she didn't like it in fact it looks to me as though its just as likely that she was ready to step up in trip from 6f. She underperformed on better ground over 6f for both starts after that effort early in her career and once stepped up to 7f regained her form. Her pedigree says that its best to keep her to good or better ground but it could be worth taking the 7/1 and attribute that GS effort to the trip. She's in form and has a decent chance.

Nulty

Bank: 17.6

Nulty

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Cape Blanco 1pt @ 9/1 Stan James/BetPack

More to Follow

Nulty

Newbury 3.10

Mantoba 1pt @ 6/1 Ladbrokes

Actually following Hugh Taylor in here and according to the stable he has a winning chance. The stats that HT has dug up on Meehans second start juveniles is pretty impressive and coupled with the colts early entries in the Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy I'm willing to chance a point on him. Fallon on juveniles is always a plus but maybe not as significant as he rides plenty for Brian Meehan. He was due to ride Mantoba on his debut but missed the ride. It's still interesting that Frankie Dettori was prepared to take the ride in his abscence despite the unlikely chance he had that day. Maybe I'm reading too deep into that but time will tell if this colt is any good at all.

Nulty

Bank: 23.6

Nulty

104.Captain Dunne| 2nd| .72 Win| 3/1| | +1
105.Dromore| 3rd| 1 ew| 20/1| Rule 4| +2.2
106.Brushing| 5th| 2 Win| 12/1| | +0
107.Excellent Guest| 1st| .5 ew| 22/1| | +13.75
108.Becausewecan| 5th| 1 ew| 16/1| | +11.75
109.Damika| 9th| 1 ew| 20/1| | +9.75
110.Mia's Boy| 22nd| 2 ew| 33/1| | +5.75
111.Swift Gift| 5th| 1 ew| 33/1| | +13
112.Imperial Guest| 3rd| 1 ew| 25/1| | +18.25
113.Makfi | 5th| 1 Win| 5/2| | +17.25
114.Aaim To Prosper| 3rd| 1 ew| 11/2| | +17.35
115.Berbice| 3rd| 1 ew| 25/1| | +22.6
116.Harriet's Girl| 4th| 1 Win| 7/1| | +21.6
117.Himalya| 4th| 2 ew| 14/1| | +17.6
118.Mantoba| 1st| 1 Win| 6/1| | +23.6

InPlay:
Nationalism 1pt ew @ 25/1 Cambridgeshire
Cape Blanco 1pt @ 9/1 Arc de Triomph
Makfi 5pts @ 4/1 Breeders Cup Mile


Gonna keep the powder dry tomorrow.

x PyRo

Good winner today mate, keep up the good work.

Nulty

Ayr 4.40

Dubai Hills .5pt ew @ 8/1 VC

No reasoning unfortunately

Nulty

feck, second.

Walked into the bookies when I got a few minutes and got €1 on Tangerine Trees @ 10/1 . Payed for my lunch!

Nulty

Bank: 24.1

Nulty

Prix de L'Abbaye - Longchamp Sunday

Arctic 1pt ew @ 33/1 Ladbrokes

Massive price for a horse that patently loves a bog. He smashed a G3 field last year by 4 and a half lengths which included Air Chief Marshal who is an in and out G3 horse for Ballydoyle and a further length back was Sebastian Flyte once rated 107 and now rated 102. The manner of that win was amazing and big things were expected but the colt blew up on Good to Firm ground on his last two starts, one of which was his one and only start of this his 3yo campaign. Its a worry that he's had only one run and also that i can't find any news about him whatsoever but there have been plenty of opportunities for him to be taken out of the race and the fact that he's still in and that the ground will be to his liking indicates that 33/1 is a very good price for the impressive mud lover.

Planet Five 1pt ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes

Pascal Bary who's a very accomplished trainer in France but has never won the Abbaye. He tries this year with a colt who has only tried the 5f once but that was a successful attempt in a G2 on Soft ground at Chantilly. He beat Picadilly Filly and Marchand D'Or that day and was hammered over 7f on his next outing. Perhaps this new distance will bring out the best in him...it will have to if he is to take this race. Being a French horse it would be great if he had some indication of how he is likely to act at Longchamp but he has never raced there. Judging by his career campaign though Bary seems to think that this is the ideal opportunity to try him at G1 level for the first time and he ought to have a competitive chance.

Nulty

Cheveley Park - Newmarket 2.35

Khor Sheed 1pt @ 6/1 Ladbrokes

I'm going to forgive her the run behind White Moonstone where she pulled for the first 3f having been stepped up in trip. That together with the softish going would have dented her chances and she still finished a respectable 3rd. Luca Cumani had reservations about running her but probably feels shes worth a crack back at a distance shes won at twice in her 4 career starts. I think she showed that the softer ground wasn't an issue for her that day but just added to the circumstances that got her beat over the extended distance having been too keen. Dropped back she ought to be competitive as she hasn't got the speed that some of them have but the ground should even that up. Shes won last time on the Rowely mile and can go well here in stamina testing conditions over the 6f.

Nulty

Middle Park - Newmarket 3.05

Irish Field 1pt ew @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (GP)

Through the form lines of the Prix Morny it appears that the ground that was estimated at soft ground was revised and reestimted at good ground. That makes a rather large difference at this level, sometimes the difference between winning and getting trashed. Dream Ahead won that on his 2nd start, too early to gauge a ground preferrence. The 2nd Tin Horse won his first 2 starts on GF, got well beaten on GS behind Irish Field and then gave his Prix Morny 2nd behind Dream Ahead. Broox who finished 4th in the Morny was beaten by Irish Field on GS in the Prix Robert Papin along with Approve and Tin Horse. Other runners who appear to like soft ground Keritya and Al Aasifh ran especially badly in the Morny. My angle here is the ground obviously. IMO Dream Ahead is a class horse but if it comes up as soft as it was today then he has to prove himself all over again. Irish Field has the best ground dependant form in the book and appears to be a very attractive price.