August 2010 Boards forecast contest

mickger844posts

15.6, 25.8, 5.4,121%, 95%, 19.4c, 3.2mm

Su Campu

14.6,22.4,7.8,110,110,18.9,0.3

kindredspirit

15.3, 25.0, 5.0, 115%, 85%, 20.5, 0.0,

M.T. Cranium

Just a note, this thread will be converted into a table of forecasts at midnight and entries will be closed at that point (nobody has entered today so far, it is subject to a penalty where you would lose 10% above 60, not really very punitive actually).

However, from now to end of year, to maintain the integrity of the contest, entries beyond the 2nd will be automatically rejected.

pauldry

just in case the solar storm breaks the internet bye everyone!

M.T. Cranium

August forecasts
_________________


Forecaster .... IMT .... Max .... Min .... Rain% .... Sun% .... Gurteen 8th
_______________________________________________________________

homolumo ..... 17.3 .... 25.7 .... 6.5 .... 099 .... 095 .... 20.1 .... 01.1
jd ................ 17.3 .... 27.7 .... 6.1 .... 109 .... 098 .... 24.1 .... 00.0
SeaFields ...... 16.3 .... 28.0 .... 7.5 .... 125 .... 080 .... .... ...... 03.0
dasa29 ......... 16.2 .... 26.5 .... 6.0 .... 096 .... 115 .... 21.5 .... 05.0
200motels ..... 16.1 .... 28.8 .... 5.2 .... 142 .... 092 .... 19.0 .... 15.0
Rebelbrowser.. 15.9 .... 25.8 .... 6.5 .... 097 .... 105 .... 19.6 .... 00.0
upforanything. 15.8 .... 25.7 .... 5.7 .... 112 .... 109 .... 21.6 .... 08.0
hellboy99 ...... 15.7 .... 26.1 .... 5.9 .... 103 .... 105 .... 21.9 .... 00.0
nilhg ............ 15.7 .... 25.8 .... 5.8 .... 085 .... 101 .... ..... ..... 01.5
nacho libre .... 15.6 .... 26.3 .... 4.9 .... 135 .... 085 .... 22.2 .... 00.0
mickger844ps. 15.6 .... 25.8 .... 5.4 .... 121 .... 095 .... 19.4 .... 03.2
DOCARCH ..... 15.6 .... 25.8 .... 3.8 .... 096 .... 105 .... 21.3 .... 00.8
Joe Public ..... 15.5 .... 29.9 .... 6.9 .... 092 .... 133 .... 22.9 .... 00.0
WolfeIRE ...... 15.5 .... 27.5 .... 5.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 22.0 .... 00.0

Con Sensus ... 15.5 .... 25.9 .... 5.9 .... 100 .... 103 .... 20.3 .... 01.0

waterways .... 15.5 .... 26.2 .... 8.9 .... 089 .... 113 .... 17.3 .... 05.9
redsunset ..... 15.5 .... 27.0 .... 7.0 .... 100 .... 110 .... 20.0 .... 01.0
John mac ...... 15.4 .... 26.7 .... 5.7 .... 090 .... 120 .... 22.1 .... 00.5
Thetonynator. 15.3 .... 24.9 .... 5.6 .... 090 .... 110 .... 22.5 .... 00.2
pauldry ......... 15.3 .... 24.1 .... 5.6 .... 103 .... 104 .... 19.4 .... 10.1
KindredSpirit .. 15.3 .... 25.0 .... 5.0 .... 115 .... 085 .... 20.5 .... 00.0
Danno .......... 15.3 .... 24.7 .... 4.9 .... 100 .... 120 .... 19.4 .... 00.0
Jerry Seinfeld . 15.2 .... 24.8 .... 6.6 .... 088 .... 115 .... 20.1 .... 00.0
MT Cranium ... 15.0 .... 26.2 .... 7.7 .... 100 .... 100 .... 20.5 .... 01.5
Fionagus ....... 15.0 .... 24.2 .... 4.5 .... 095 .... 108 .... 19.5 .... 03.0
Deep Easterly. 14.9 .... 26.8 .... 6.9 .... 098 .... 108 .... 20.1 .... 03.4
Strasser ....... 14.8 .... 23.5 .... 4.5 .... 108 .... 094 .... 19.5 .... 05.0
Su Campu ..... 14.6 .... 22.4 .... 7.8 .... 110 .... 110 .... 18.9 .... 00.3
TheInquisitor.. 14.0 .... 29.0 .... 5.0 .... 093 .... 078 .... 24.0 .... 00.0
____________________________________________________

Sorry, I failed to notice during entries that two forecasters missed the temperature for the 7th, giving only the rainfall.

Meanwhile, the consensus seems optimistic given the kind of pattern we had in most of July and have right now ... the average temperature prediction calls for 15.5 C, a bit above average, and an extreme of 26. The rainfall estimate is right on normal and so is sunshine (a small amount above, actually). We shall see if the old "scoring adjustment" tool needs to be sharpened for another round, hope not.

Good luck and welcome to our new entrants, homolumo and up for anything, as well as welcome back to some other newbies from July.

Without checking extensively, looks to me as though all regulars have entered so any further forecasts will be "for demonstration purposes only."

nilhg

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

August forecasts
_________________


snip


Sorry, I failed to notice during entries that two forecasters missed the temperature for the 7th, giving only the rainfall.

snip

Don't know how I missed that, in fairness it's too late to change my entry, I'll just have to hope I hit the bullseye with the rest...

M.T. Cranium

I'm afraid so, with it being the 3rd now ... by the way, Claremorris has recorded 6.8 C (2nd) for the monthly min so far.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm afraid so, with it being the 3rd now ... by the way, Claremorris has recorded 6.8 C (2nd) for the monthly min so far.

Claremorris is down as 12.3C min for the 2nd

M.T. Cranium

My apologies there, I checked back to the source (yesterday's weather on the met.ie site) and sure enough, there is no 6.8 there for Claremorris, actually the lowest was 7.6 C at Casement.

I have no idea whether this was changed or if my eyes were playing tricks on me, I suspect changed because I took more than a casual look once I saw some single-digit lows. However, there is almost bound to be a lower temperature eventually given the way August usually unfolds.

Joe Public

Any chance some met.ie people are participating in the contest?

Might explain the changing figures:D

pauldry

:cool:IMT only 14.6c after 4 days of August.

Most of us predicted over 15. We need a bit of heat.

Rainfall will prob be above normal by this time next week but "tentative" signs of a High Pressure trying to get in around 11th.:cool:

pauldry

IMT has gone up a couple of decimal places to 14.78c

Warm weather round 11th (see MTs forecast) is possible that might bring it over 15c good for the majority of us:)

Deep Easterly

I.M.T for August up to the 7th on 15.0c, which is close to normal for the time of year. However, mean max is running below normal once again while mean min is running considerably above.


Chart showing daily I.M.T max temp for the year so far:



Very static over the last couple of months.


Outlook chart for the coming mid-week period:



Ireland forecast to lie between low to the east of UK and an appoaching flabby ridge from the west bringing a mix of cloud and sunshine with the odd shower possible on most days. Breezy at times too during daylight hours with temps hovering around average. Drying conditions should improve as the week progresses.



Data C/O met eireann

M.T. Cranium

Through the first seven days, rainfall running only about 60% (Friday did not produce that much) and sunshine only at 66% of normal.

Will post the results for Gurteen tomorrow, but must say, if it rains between now and end of day, this would be a shame for those who predicted a dry day since presumably the agricultural fair (if I remember right) has closed its doors by now.

Joe Public

If rain in Gurteen for Sunday turns out to be "trace" does that count as 0 mms?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, but let's say if it's 0.1 mms, I would probably be giving 4/5 to the zero rainfall crowd, five to anyone with a small forecast of rain, and diminishing numbers above that. If it's zero, same general idea. I know in some contests they go very strictly all points or no points for rainfall, but that seems unrealistic in a weather pattern like this, I prefer a graduated scale that seems fair to the contestants. Looks like it will be either trace or 0.1 mm in the final analysis. I'll post the high for the day when I see it later on.

M.T. Cranium

Just realized, the climatological day runs 00z to 00z and that means 0100 to 0100 local time, which is why Gurteen measured 1.2 mms of rain -- it was all between 23z and 00z. And the high for the day was 19.2 C.

Since it didn't rain more than a trace all day before midnight I will be lenient on the low side of this amount but fair is fair, anyone predicting 0.5 to 2.0 mms will get the full points, I plan to give zero and slight amounts four out of five, and I will reduce the points gradually above the 0.5-2.0 range. Seem fair to you?

For the max I will give five points for the range 18.7 to 19.7 and take off a point for every 1.0 outside that excellent range. Well done to all who guessed near 19 C.

I think Danno had the closest real forecast in terms of how the day would turn out, although he's one of several who were annoyed by the late arriving rain, with the people and their animals long gone. As a group, our consensus forecast from 8-10 days invites much admiration (the BIEWX model perhaps?) Or is it the victory of randomness?

It makes me wonder how much my daily forecast thread would be improved by similar input from the two dozen of you each day (prob'ly lots).

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just realized, the climatological day runs 00z to 00z and that means 0100 to 0100 local time, which is why Gurteen measured 1.2 mms of rain -- it was all between 23z and 00z. And the high for the day was 19.2 C.

Since it didn't rain more than a trace all day before midnight I will be lenient on the low side of this amount but fair is fair, anyone predicting 0.5 to 2.0 mms will get the full points, I plan to give zero and slight amounts four out of five, and I will reduce the points gradually above the 0.5-2.0 range. Seem fair to you?

For the max I will give five points for the range 18.7 to 19.7 and take off a point for every 1.0 outside that excellent range. Well done to all who guessed near 19 C.

I think Danno had the closest real forecast in terms of how the day would turn out, although he's one of several who were annoyed by the late arriving rain, with the people and their animals long gone. As a group, our consensus forecast from 8-10 days invites much admiration (the BIEWX model perhaps?) Or is it the victory of randomness?

It makes me wonder how much my daily forecast thread would be improved by similar input from the two dozen of you each day (prob'ly lots).

M.T. Cranium Met.ie say 19.8

Speak Now

Claremorris 6.1 new lowest i think.

pauldry

I was expecting a lot of rain late in the day to be honest (10.1mm oops)

so ill prob get 0 for that but my random temp guess of 19.4 wasnt too bad

Respect to the boards forecasters for being righter than Met Eireann.

Just goes to show that yo dont REALLY need an honour in applied maths to predict weather:)

M.T. Cranium

Agreed, it says 19.8 now, perhaps I keep seeing some prelim data when I first look around 0500? So take my previous remarks and change the good range to 19.3 to 20.3, I suppose. This actually improves our consensus forecast from near-perfect to astounding. Well done everybody (as a team effort).

SeaFields

I forgot to forecast the temp....:(

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Agreed, it says 19.8 now, perhaps I keep seeing some prelim data when I first look around 0500? So take my previous remarks and change the good range to 19.3 to 20.3, I suppose. This actually improves our consensus forecast from near-perfect to astounding. Well done everybody (as a team effort).

They usually say "the early bird catches the worm" but in your case "the early bird catches the red herring"

pauldry

Hi,

This pages hasnt been updated in a while.

No hard stats but rainfall is below normal at present picking up considerably in the next 7 days and could be above normal in the Northern half and near Normal in the South at the very least as cool unsettled conditions take hold from Monday evening onwards.

Temperature is about 14.9 at present for the month. But this figure is not available for me to see at present so it is only just a guess but I believe it is near. Most predictions are over 15c for the month but Sunday and Monday should bring this figure up by a couple of points before it decreases again during the course of the week. It is hard to see it getting much above what it is actually at now so the people under 15 are on the money.

Sunshine above normal in the South but well below normal in some Northern parts and I think the figure is about 60% for the country. Its hard to know how this will go for the rest of August but it certainly will not be above normal countrywide so if you predicted a below normal month sunshine wise you are laughing.

Monthly Minimum is 6.1c so far at Claremorris I think and Im not sure about the maximum but I think Sunday 15th of August will provide this at 23 or 24c

M.T. Cranium

I update these after each seven day period, so some time on Sunday, if the data are fully available (I noticed earlier on Saturday the data were not all available). So look for the update on rainfall and sunshine later today. I think the figures above are close to being right.

pauldry

Sorry MT,

Just thought id look at the ME web tonight and see, didnt mean to thread on yer toes so to speak

Ill leave it to yerself in future

M.T. Cranium

No worries, I don't mind, just letting you know what the schedule is for the rainfall and sunshine updates ... DE updates the temperatures when he has time. I sometimes forget the seven-day updates too.

Deep Easterly

Missing data from 3 of the 5 met eireann stations on the 13th but IMT seems a fairly solid 14.8c up to midnight last (the 14th), which is close to normal for the first 14 days of August.

Quick chart showing trend so far this year with 2009 data for August thrown in for comparison:



It is interesting to note that like August 2009, this month is continuing the trend of lower than average maximas while mins are running above normal.

I haven't looked at any model runs today but near average temps and some rain or showers at times seems to be the theme for the coming week. M.T will have all the specifics in his forecast thread.

M.T. Cranium

Well, it appears that our friends at met.ie have changed the format of their agmet page, which I was using to update the rainfall and sunshine hours. They have shortened their list considerably (not sure if this is a permanent change) which gives me only a sample of rainfall but most of the usual sunshine stats. If that is permanent, I will need to do a little more sleuthing to keep track of these totals.

From what they do have listed, rainfall in the past seven days (8th-14th) was about 30 per cent, but I estimate the full list might be closer to 25, so using that, the running total for the month is now sitting around 45 per cent of normal -- any completely dry day like today will reduce this running figure by about 3 per cent, so make that 42% to the end of the 15th.

The sunshine data are more complete and came in at 103% for the seven days, combining with the first week's 60% to leave the running total at 82%, which would then inflate by about 10% after an extensively sunny day like today, so reset that to 92% and possibly closing in on 100% (normal sunshine) by end of play tomorrow (perhaps that's a bit optimistic, 95% for a half-sunny outcome, the "normal" sunshine day in August appears to be about 5 hours on average across the grid.

The IMT will take a bit of an upward jog this week, and we'll have to check today's readings but it could be that both ends of the extreme table will be revised after today as I saw some hourly readings of 6 C earlier on and haven't checked back yet but I see it may have been 25 or higher at Oak Park. I estimate the IMT will add about a full degree this week.