August 2010 Boards forecast contest

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, it appears that our friends at met.ie have changed the format of their agmet page, which I was using to update the rainfall and sunshine hours. They have shortened their list considerably (not sure if this is a permanent change) which gives me only a sample of rainfall but most of the usual sunshine stats. If that is permanent, I will need to do a little more sleuthing to keep track of these totals.

Hey M.T, don't worry about the ag site. It hasn't change. It is to do with the missing data from the 13th from many of the stations. The ag reports rely on a full 7 day data set up to the day before from each station. Chances are, once data from the 13th is updated, then so will the data in the agricultural page. If not, then we have to wait another 6 days or so!

Edit. Just noticed that the graph I posted earlier is a bit wrong. The blue line actually represents the mean trend for 2010 rather than for 2009 as the chart shows. Same with the red line. Sorry about this folks, was in a bit a rush earlier.

pauldry

yesterday was both wasrmest n coldest

Oak Park 24.2c

Ballyhaise 5.5c (though dont know if Ballyhaise is counted in this contest)
Gurteen 5.9c (this one is counted)

M.T. Cranium

Ballyhaise is counted ... I go by whatever the climate summary says at the end of the month, if they have some secret station then reveal it on the first of September then we go with that too.

I wonder if they will both hold up? Probably not for the low, I suppose.

Cloud spread across faster today than my comments earlier so we'll reset the sunshine estimate through 16th to 90%. Rain probably added a few percentage points to the earlier estimate of 42% so we'll say this first half (and a bit) of August went around 50% of normal rainfall.

With these estimates I can update now on 22nd, and reset those updates on the 24th.

If my place counted for the extremes we would be sitting at 34.0 C (ouch).

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ballyhaise is counted ... I go by whatever the climate summary says at the end of the month, if they have some secret station then reveal it on the first of September then we go with that too.

.

Remember last january, the coldest temperature recorded was -12 or so. But then in March, when the winter summary came out, they added an extra climatological station ( mt.juliet in kilkenny) which had -16.something, and counted that as the coldest temperature. It kind of upsets the scoring system a bit to know that they have more datat for more areas and just dont divulge it to us. . . .:(

M.T. Cranium

I wasn't aware they had done that, T, but as we all know the roster of stations that they do select for the climate summary, it gives us some idea that we won't be dealing with some notorious frost hollow or a really hot-running station either (as you often find in climat stations at least over this way, some of the eventual climat station reports that get into the books are way out of kilter with regional trends but possibly accurate for the site, I mean today it is probably 32 C in a well-exposed park-like setting around here but no doubt if I had a Stevenson screen on the burnt expanse of sagebrush that passes for lawn on the southwest side of the building here, it would be showing 35 or 36 easily. From what I remember about January we would have been using the mercy rule for that -16 C so the scores would probably have been about the same.

pauldry

Yeah and werent the roads here 46c yesterday?

Are your roads 60 MT?

M.T. Cranium

I would think so, never heard of this practice of reporting road temperatures before. I think we're becoming acclimatized to the heat, I only notice it every other moment now. This is not one of those places where air conditioning is normal in houses or most buildings, so it's sweltering hot in the Craniatorium right now (28 C on the thermostat). Heading to the pub soon to cool off.

Everyone has their fans running so there's a bit of a brownout hazard.

Anyway, one more day of this heat, then we get some of nature's air conditioning as the wind turns more westerly.

M.T. Cranium

Update on rainfall and sunshine through the 21st (three full weeks of August) show that the past week despite the rains returning, rainfall for the week was only 79% of normal, bringing the monthly figure up slightly to 56% of normal, while sunshine ran at 131% of normal for the week, helping to boost that total to about 97% of normal.

The next few days look rather wet and cloudy, so would expect these figures to shift towards perhaps 90% of normal each within four or five days.

Will leave the IMT update to DE -- I have the feeling it's in the mid-15 range at this point.

M.T. Cranium

Just thinking ahead to the September contest, what events might be good for a forecast on the first weekend, the 4th and 5th?

jd

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just thinking ahead to the September contest, what events might be good for a forecast on the first weekend, the 4th and 5th?

All Ireland on the 5th, Kilkenny vs Tipp

Electric Picnic (Stradbally County Laois)

Lisdoonvarna matchmaking starts on the 3rd!

Monaghan Towmn Harvest Time Rhythm & Blues Festival (3rd to 5th)

Cape Clear Cork, Story Telling Festival 3rd to 5th (Weather related, perhaps!)

pauldry

Tuesday is looking like a very cold night according to met eireann. Could bring a new low for the month. Not sure what this is at present but they are promising 4c! on Tuesday

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just thinking ahead to the September contest, what events might be good for a forecast on the first weekend, the 4th and 5th?

Liffey descent, one of the biggest canoeing races in europe in the 4th, from Straffan in Kildare to islandbridge in Dublin . . .

SeaFields

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just thinking ahead to the September contest, what events might be good for a forecast on the first weekend, the 4th and 5th?

Has to be all ireland hurling final!

pauldry

The drive for 5.

Casement or Dublin Airport

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is sitting at 14.8 C and could lose a couple of tenths in the next few days.

pauldry

Just looking at all the agri stats on met eireann website and sunshine totals for the month were high for week of Aug 18th - 24th ... Rainfall seemed to vary all over the place for that week (above and below normal) Temperatures were above normal everywhere in this period too. However that figure is going to drop as MT says due to cool days and very cool nights

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The IMT is sitting at 14.8 C and could lose a couple of tenths in the next few days.

IMT has been hovering around that temp for much of the month, and currently on 14.7c, which is close to normal for the month so far.

Trend graph: (up to midnight 24th)



Data C/O met eireann

M.T. Cranium

I may hold off a couple of days to decide the bonus question, since there seems to be some chance of Danielle breaking through the log-jam of blocking around the weekend I had in mind. If that's not looking like a factor I will perhaps go with sunshine hours on Sunday 5th at Casement as that may be a good indication of conditions for a lot of the events that were suggested. But I will post the September contest on Friday (my time, so look for it on the weekend).

These cold nights are going to have a big impact on this month's scoring. We have 3.1 for Claremorris (25th) and so far an hourly of 3 C at Gurteen this morning.

M.T. Cranium

Gurteen meanwhile has fallen to 2.3 C (26th) -- this is considerably below our lowest forecast of 3.8 C from DOCARCH -- mercy rule forthcoming here.

pauldry

Im fairly new to the Fantasy Weather competition MT. What is the mercy rule and how does it work? Is it that everyone of us are hopeless so you give mercy to us and give us a few points out of sympathy ?

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Im fairly new to the Fantasy Weather competition MT. What is the mercy rule and how does it work? Is it that everyone of us are hopeless so you give mercy to us and give us a few points out of sympathy ?

I guess MT is a big Roy Orbison fan and when we are way off target he thinks of Pretty Woman.

M.T. Cranium

The mercy rules are explained some place back around the January thread or perhaps at the start of the annual scoring thread. The basic idea is that if the normal scoring falls below a stated "minimum scoring" progression, then the scores are adjusted upwards using rank order to get to that minimum. This tends to even out the monthly scores and makes it less significant which two months are dropped from the scoring for the annual "best ten out of xx" scoring competition.

So far we have needed to use them more in 2010 than I think would have been the case in 2009 -- and usually because it was too cold.

Will be posting the September round in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium

The fourth week of the month (22-28) has shifted the rainfall and sunshine totals as follows ...

Rainfall ran about 40% of normal in the period, shifting the monthly figure to about 52% ... does it seem that way to you? ... I think with the cool weather and a cloudy start, as well as the wet July, the ground has probably retained more moisture than 52% might imply.

Sunshine was boosted considerably by a flashy 177% of normal week, rising above normal for the first time since June ... and sitting at about 118% of normal.

The IMT seems to be dropping into the mid-14 range.

The last two days of the month can only sharpen all these trends with sunshine and no rain predicted, as well as very cool nights.

Anyone happen to know the all-time record low minimum in Ireland for August? Has there ever been an air frost?

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The fourth week of the month (22-28) has shifted the rainfall and sunshine totals as follows ...

Rainfall ran about 40% of normal in the period, shifting the monthly figure to about 52% ... does it seem that way to you? ... I think with the cool weather and a cloudy start, as well as the wet July, the ground has probably retained more moisture than 52% might imply.

Sunshine was boosted considerably by a flashy 177% of normal week, rising above normal for the first time since June ... and sitting at about 118% of normal.

The IMT seems to be dropping into the mid-14 range.

The last two days of the month can only sharpen all these trends with sunshine and no rain predicted, as well as very cool nights.

Anyone happen to know the all-time record low minimum in Ireland for August? Has there ever been an air frost?

Some time between 1961 and 1990 Claremorris recorded 1.1 (1.2 for Kilkenny), they actaully have a 0.6 for July. These are the only 2 months not to record a negative temp.

thetonynator

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Some time between 1961 and 1990 Claremorris recorded 1.1 (1.2 for Kilkenny), they actaully have a 0.6 for July. These are the only 2 months not to record a negative temp.

Also 1.2 for Birr.

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Some time between 1961 and 1990 Claremorris recorded 1.1c

1964

M.T Cranium wrote:

The IMT seems to be dropping into the mid-14 range.

For sure! down to 14.4c up to midnight last. Something is telling me I will be remaining at the bottom of the yearly score table for a wee while yet..:cool:

Interestingly, the yearly IMT, having come close to the 61-90 average over the last couple of weeks, peaking at -0.12c below average, has begun to to fall away again over the last 3 or 4 days - now down to 0.16c below. This is the first time the deviational figure has fallen since last winter.

pauldry

brrrr

1.1 and 1.2c

surely they wont be beaten in the coming days but gurteen or claremorris or mullingar could record 2c

think tonight has the best chance of that as a Southeasterly wont bring temps as cool as this.

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

brrrr

1.1 and 1.2c

surely they wont be beaten in the coming days but gurteen or claremorris or mullingar could record 2c

think tonight has the best chance of that as a Southeasterly wont bring temps as cool as this.

Gurteen at 4 degrees at midnight . .. theres a long night ahead for it to continue to fall though!!!

pauldry

And Charlestown at 3.4c at 0010 according to NRA

Nearby Claremorris is 5c . 2 will surely be reached by morning.

M.T. Cranium

0300h (02z) reports include 2 C at Gurteen and 3 C at Casement.

All-time record watch in progress. :eek:

update -- same hourly reports at 0400h (03z)