Galway Festival- Day 5 Selections

rossom

5.40 Galway

With the form of Weld at the festival I am expecting his newcomer to be strongly backed, although pedigree hardly jumps out at you. However, I will be very strongly siding with Orafinitis. Desmond Mcdonagh's filly is quite well bred out of Oratorio and made a promising debut when running on 5th over 6f to Misty for Me at the Curragh recently. This horse shaped as if it needed longer so I am convinced the step up to 7f is a huge plus.With a 7 pound claimer on board I am expecting a monster run as I have heard that this horse is extremely well thought of by the yard and hope that the forecasted odds of 10/1 are available. I expect the filly's odds to be slashed early on tomorrow morning so getting on early is key in my opinion.

x PyRo

5:10 Galway - Golden Grimshaw - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

Former flat horse with Barry Hills before moving to some other trainer that I've never heard of. Didn't do well there but since moving to J.J Lambe he has finally got off the mark hurdling on his 11th attempt. Won impressively and shaped as if there may be more to come from him. That was on softish ground and tomorrows ground will be faster but he has form on the flat on quicker ground and with his rejuvenation for a new yard he could prove as good on this ground. Jumped soundly last time out and with a clear round I think he'll get a race run to suit as there are a couple of front runners in this field, most notably Kalellshan, who won here on day one but carries a penalty and top weight, although he has a good claimer on board but it'll be hard for him to repeat his exploits of 4 days ago. He'll set a good gallop as usual and that should play into my selections hands as he looks a strong traveler who will stay this trip no problem and could peg them back in the final couple of furlongs as he likes to sit in mid-div and improve steadily throughout the race. Robbie McNamara is on board and he's an absolutely splendid jockey, strong as an ox in a finish and gets the most out of his rides. He has had 4 rides at Galway so far and won aboard 3 of them, this is his only ride for tomorrow and I think he'll be adding another winner to his tally if all goes well. The handicapper hasn't been harsh on the horse either and I think he'll improve even more than his current mark and if taking to the ground and jumping soundly he looks a very good each way prospect. Likely to be around 7/1 which would be perfect and he offers a solid each way option in comparison to the likely favourite Kalellshan who could be as short as 3/1 and will find it extremely tough to win again so close to his last race. Golden Grimshaw looks to have the best chance to me and can bring Robbie Mac his 4th victory of the festival.

5:40 Galway - Orafinitis - .5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Might be a risky one but ran on well enough in a filly's maiden suggesting that this step up to 7f will suit. Well bred with lots of speed and if she can build on that maiden run she could well knick a place here or even better. This doesn't look like the toughest of races despite facing opposition from a Weld horse and a John Oxx horse. Gets weight from most of the field and has a 7lb claimer on board which means she'll only be carrying 8st 2lbs. Got a plum draw in stall 8 and likely to enjoy the ground. She didn't look too hard pushed on debut and ran a bit freely but was only just under 2 lengths away from APOB's filly, Why, who was well backed in a race here a couple of days ago but only managed 4th, still looks decent enough form though. I don't know anything about the trainer but he has had a winner at this festival before, I don't know anything about the jockey either but he looks alright value for his 7lb claim and has won once from five rides around this track. She looks good each way value if fulfilling the potential I feel is there and likely to be around 10/1+ and she could spring a surprise here if all falls into place. Worth a tiny each way bet.

6:15 Galway - Tasman - .5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

Won at this meeting back in '08 and came second in a better race last year losing out to Natal who is in this race again and likely to be vying for favoritism but I feel the Liam McAteer horse can go one better this year and continue his fine Galway form which reads 2-2-1-2, that was before his 6th a few days ago. He handles all sorts of ground and will have no bother with this tomorrow. Currently around 22/1 on Betfair and looks a fairly decent e/w bet. He's a prominent races and usually jumps well, he's 10 years old now but his course form speaks for itself. He is also very good when fresh (should come on for that recent run) and wasn't seen in near 5 months before his race a few days ago so he should appreciate the break as his form went near the end of last season. He could get in the mix here at a nice price and is dangerous if he gets his own way up front, but will face a battle with a few others here. The only problem is the jockey on board him is very poor, he has only one once from 81 rides which is shocking but if the horse is good enough his 7lb claim could come in very handy. The horse looks dangerously handicapped and won off 5lbs lower last year and this is a more winnable race than his 6th place finish when losing to Invisible Man here a few days ago. He looks likely to be well overpriced and could get a place at least if all goes well so I'll have a small each way bet on him at likely odds of around 20/1.

6:50 Galway - Bob Le Beau - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I'm going for the only 3 year old in the field here, he gets a massive 12lbs for age allowance and also has a good 3lb claimer on board which will leaving him carrying 8st 1lb, effectively running off a mark of 75 despite being a 90 rated horse. Been in flying form of late, won his first two starts of 2010 quite impressively, digging deep to win late on in one race and showed lots of speed and ability, lots of drive and determination then too. Just got short headed last time out but this is the reason I'm so interested in him. He hit 1/5 in running and probably should of won but was just held by Notalossonya, who is a horse I selected the other day and he won comfortably in a decent handicap the other day. Bob Le Beau was giving him 18lbs that day and it probably took its toll but it was a good run against a horse who will only improve. Now it's my selections chance to run off bottom weight which will give him a fairly solid chance in my opinion, he is being stepped up a further 2f to 1m 4f now and that will suit him ideally, the ground will also be of no bother to him and his trainer was banging in the winners over the last month and seems to have her horses in great form. Drawn stall 13 of 18 which is a top place to be and with decent pace in the race he should get a run to suit. May find it hard to beat the Weld horse, Natural High, who will be a short price, but he's more than capable of improving enough to win this and has many things in his favour. He looks a solid each way bet a forecast odds of 12/1 (Although I expect it'll be 8's or less) and with a little improvement, luck and the extra 2 furlongs proving to be what he needs then I expect him to be bang in the shake up in the final furlong. Looks to have a good chance. Medium each way bet for me, top 4 places paid also which is a bonus!

Lazy now, so no write ups for the last three Galway races. All have been thoroughly looked at though.

7:25 Galway - Battleoftrafalgar - .5pts @ 11/2 (VC)
7:55 Galway - Walter De La Mare - .5pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)
8:25 Galway - Eagle's Pass - .5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Weeehooo!

Gavin "shels"

Have about 3 horses picked out for most of the races tomorrow (same as the last 4 days) so will do my narrowing down when I wake up in the morning and see the odds. But I'll most likely be going with;

6.15 Alfa Beat
6.50 Natural High,
7.55 Walter De La Mare
8.05 Mojito Royal and/or Myrine

mike65

GALWAY 8:25 GUINNESS STAKES 1m 6f
Myrine @ 5.00 (GP)

GALWAY 7:55 HANDICAP (50-70) 1m 1/2f
First In The Qu @ 4.33 (GP)

GALWAY 6:50 PREMIER HANDICAP 1m 4f
Bob Le Beau @ 7.50 (GP)

GALWAY 6:15 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 6f
Corrick Bridge @ 9.00 (GP)

GALWAY 5:40 MAIDEN STAKES (2YO) 7f
When Not Iff @ 3.50 (GP)

GALWAY 5:10 AMATEUR HANDICAP 2m 2f
Golden Grimshaw @ 9.00 (GP)

deewhy

Hope the hangovers have cleared from yesterdays winnings. Another easy days racing ahead.... My Bets for today:

17.10 2pts e/w Carutomark

This is a real competitive handicap with strong cases to be made for much of the field. I had good word on this fellow last time out when he finished second to a Charles Byrne good thing. Although gone up a few pounds, with same claimer taking off 7, I feel this race is not as strong as the winner the last day. I will also have .5pt e/ saver on South Wing at a big price. This fellow has run and won well on the flat this year and had an encouraging 3nd first run back over hurdles.

17.40 3pts Win King of the Ring (forecast with Orafinitus)

5th to one of the most promising 2 year old winners this year - Pathfork, running a good race in the process. Robin Hood was 2nd in that race and won here earlier in the week. This form stands up over all others. Drawn 6 in a smaller field he should outgun his rivals if handling the track. I like the rationale behine Orafinitus and should pick up a good forecast price with the fav.

18.15: 2 pts e/way Ah Ya Boy Ya

This has the look of an improver in at the bottom of the handicap. Won easily its maiden last time out but prior to that had run decent races in good company (5th to Alpha Beat on its first run back this year). Has finished 2nd on the course and should handle the ground. I am going for a saver on one of my favourite horses - Truckers Delight. I had backed him ante post for the plate but didnt get in. He is carrying a lot of weight and the distance might just catch him out but on the plus side he is a dual winner at the Galway festival and the Shark knows how to place this fellow.

18.50: 1 pt e/way Gimli's Rock (betting w/o Welds)

I believe Weld really fancies Natural High so I am going to avoid him by betting in the w/o market. I am caught between Jessie Harrington's two here. Bob Le Beau looks a real smart animal and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in stepping up in trip - I am really looking forward to his hurdling career. But this time I am going for Gimli's - it has to come off a bad draw but in the longer race it has a chance. Knocking on the door on the flat, he won a valuable hurdle at the P'town festival. I also have a saver on an old favourite at a big price and that is Celtic Dane. Won the EBF premier handicap here two years ago, and the Ulster Derby this year on a similiar type track, although weighted highly - it should run really well.

19.25: 1 pt win Raffaelo Santi

I will succumb to Weld in this one. Looks like it is due a win. Doesnt have a great draw but either does its principal rivals. I will put the consistent Sailors Warn into the f/cast.

19.55: 1 pt e/w Elusive Art

Marnane's horses running well here this week (disqualified winner yesterday). This horse ran well in Killarney, drawn quite well and should be competitive. I think Meade's horse at the top of weights Goldarover could run well at a big price - well drawn and might have the greater ability to win in this class.

20.25: 1 pt e/w Bremen

Ran well during the week with the jockey not hard on him once beaten and with the yard that won this race last year (Bahrain Storm). Has won over hurdles this year and will not have a difficulty seeing out the distance. I expect a big run at a big price.

Best of luck today.

admiralofthefleet

im only going to do one bet on what has been a very quiet week for me, natural high in the 6.50

Small (very small) E/W Yankee and Lucky 15 on:
When Not Iff
Bob Le Beau
First in the Qu
Golden Grimshaw

Kod-box

Heard an interesting stat that Weld hasnt had a winner on the friday in the last 6 years at Galway, his horse Natural High seems to be NAP'd everywhere.

Mr. sneakyboo

Im going do a small lucky 15. Like a lot races cases can be made for most horses but here goes mine.
Quai du Roi was very unlucky last time out to Mr.Bones who followed that up with another win and a second the other day in ballybrit. The two finished well clear of 3rdhorse who won next time out. His also course winner at Galway.

Next in lucky 15 is Corrrick bridge if he jumps he will win seriously talented horse but has had his problems finished length behin chicago Grey last time out who won yesterday.

Eagles Pass I know has been well fancied in previous races and now Wayne Lordan back on him..its been a while and 1st time blinkers I hope hel
finally get the luck he deserves.

Finally last horse Ive picked out is Tin Town Boy at a price of 33/1 was really impreseed with his sixth at roscommon although he has run poorly since I just have a feeling he mite have been saved for this n only out 4 gallop..I hope. And im going against Weld but he has nice weight too.

This is just my humble opinion they could all easily finish last.
Best luck any1 geting involved.

BrokenArrows

when you guys are putting in your picks i see people mentioning "pts".
what does this number mean?

abrr1000

5.50 Mon champion 10 EW

OneForTheTeam

BrokenArrows wrote: »

when you guys are putting in your picks i see people mentioning "pts".
what does this number mean?

See here:

coughlan08 wrote: »

nothing else to do,so might aswel answer.

for any1 person a point is going to reflect a different stake,
the purpose of the point system is so that not to reveal your actual stake and so people who might have a higher/lower bank roll can follow your bets in relation to their own bank.
e.g "john" might have a bank of €500,
joe might have a bank of €5000 at the start of his log,,,joe would equal this to 100pts,if john wanted to follow joes bets he would then equal his 500 to 100pts, then he would correctly be able to follow his bets proportionately using the points system.
their is also other uses for the points system but thats prob the main one.

OneForTheTeam

abrr1000 wrote: »

5.50 Mon champion 10 EW

No 5.50 race today?

abrr1000

Sorry thats 6.50 Mon Champion and now 25E E/W at 16/1

OneForTheTeam

Golden Grimshaw Fell.

MikeHunt08

Turner Brown left it to late!

Goldcupfav

Tip for Caesars Song in the last race at Galway tonight!

scopper

Another loss for me there but that was a great race to watch.

deewhy

AAAAAGH - agony! Weight did Truckers and Ah Ya boya ran his race as well:(

Vurnon San Benito

Ah Ya Boy Ya could've won that

Vurnon San Benito

Got placed and this was underneath it :

Rule 4 : 5% Rule 4 Details: 2010-07-30 09:00:00 - 2010-07-30 16:34:06 : 5%

What the fook!

20 Times 20 Times

lump on bob for me :-)

OneForTheTeam

Sarge wrote: »

lump on bob for me :-)

Couldnt keep up. Ah well, on to the next race:D

x PyRo

Bob got caught in a pocket and ran into all of their arses. Poooor day so far.

20 Times 20 Times

ive decided to call it :-) day early !

Cant really complain overall

OneForTheTeam

Battleoftrafalgar 2nd i think was very close.

scopper

Close for sure. Placed at least which is something. Not a great day for the punter I don't think. Just about hoping to come in at even at this rate tho I'm working from profit so it ain't so bad. Main issue is that it is Friday nite and I want to go out with a win!

deewhy

late call on Lily Star ew - Rogers does well at this track and might sneek a place

x PyRo

Walter De La Mare also got boxed in and ran into another horse and then the rail. ARGH!

deewhy

Hitting the crossbar all night with the selections - just keep finding one too good. Most have got placed and one winner but need some xpyro last race inspiration!! Still like Bremen at a price in this and a saver on Elusive Ridge. Fun exacta for for me

deewhy

HAve decided to include Mojito Royale in a combination exacta - money coming for it and Bremen.