Tropical Storm COLIN

maquiladora

000
WTNT24 KNHC 021433
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 40.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/021433.shtml?

thetonynator

Florida could take a bit of a beating . . .

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

Florida could take a bit of a beating . . .

At the moments the models arent showing a Florida landfall, the East coast looks more at risk. Long way to go and models are changing a lot but at the moment it looks like it might struggle to get anything more intense than a tropical storm.

thetonynator

From watching them over the last years, the far west forecasts seem to hit Texas or Louisiana, and the far east ones always seem to veer in and hit florida . . .

maquiladora

Close to being named Colin now. The trend with the models at the moment is for it to curve away from land, a fish storm. Lots of time for changes though.

ciaran67

maquiladora wrote: »

At the moments the models arent showing a Florida landfall, the East coast looks more at risk. Long way to go and models are changing a lot but at the moment it looks like it might struggle to get anything more intense than a tropical storm.

and then us next week sometime

maquiladora

(Can a mod please update the thread title?)

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY

---

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


000
WTNT44 KNHC 030831
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS.

CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT
285/20. AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLY JET. THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL
AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE
WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS
OF COLIN. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND
FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.0N 47.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

pauldry

A woman phoned me today and asked if there was going to be a hurricane

Well I can tell you there wont be a hurricane..........................:D:D

Su Campu

Colin's hanging on to his status by a thread, as they're finding it hard to spot a closed circulation anymore.


000
WTNT44 KNHC 031438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE EVEN FASTER. COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 48 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN
EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO
NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.2N 49.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 52.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 56.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 60.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.2N 63.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 67.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 70.5W 50 KT

maquiladora

Colin we hardly knew ya!


000
WTNT44 KNHC 032043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF
COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

maquiladora

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
20 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ciaran67

pauldry wrote: »

A woman phoned me today and asked if there was going to be a hurricane

Well I can tell you there wont be a hurricane..........................:D:D

That sounds fishy

maquiladora

(Likely to be a fish storm even if it does get reclassified)

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

thetonynator

so its not going to reach ireland then!!! does anyone know what cause charlie to reach ireland with some strenght in the 80's???

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

so its not going to reach ireland then!!! does anyone know what cause charlie to reach ireland with some strenght in the 80's???

...By August 21, Charley completed the transition into an extratropical cyclone to the south of Atlantic Canada, after which it re-intensified under baroclinic instability. The resulting storm was a very large and fairly strong gale that gradually moved across the northern Atlantic Ocean As an extratropical cyclone, Charley attained an atmospheric pressure of 980 mbar, which was lower than its pressure as a tropical cyclone. It accelerated as it approached the British Isles, and after passing south of Ireland it moved across Great Britain on August 27.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley_%281986%29

Su Campu

thetonynator wrote: »

so its not going to reach ireland then!!! does anyone know what cause charlie to reach ireland with some strenght in the 80's???

Charley didn't really reach us at all, to be really pedantic about it. He had pretty much died a death by mid Atlantic, but it was "his" remains that got picked up by a strong jet and reintensified into a normal baroclinic storm just before reaching Ireland. So the storm itself didn't make it all the way across.

Here are some charts highlighting the fact.

12UTC 23 Aug 1986
Charley is a 990hPa extratropical depression to the southeast of Nova Scotia.




12UTC 24th August
All that remains is a shallow depression of 1000hPa




00UTC 25th August
12 hours later it has filled some more, up to between 1000-1005hPa just southwest of Valentia. It lies under a deep upper trough which will inject life back into it, like a defibrillator. "ALL CLEAR....."




12UTC 25th August
12 hours later it's explosively deepened to below 995hPa and taken a turn to the northeast, right over Ireland.



Charley was only ever a Cat 1 hurricane off the US east coast, with max winds briefly reaching 80mph. It has been hyped up way too much over the years to the point that many people think we've actually received a hurricane, which is nonsense. A very potent storm for the time of year, yes, but no hurricane.

maquiladora

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

Charley was only ever a Cat 1 hurricane off the US east coast, with max winds briefly reaching 80mph. It has been hyped up way too much over the years to the point that many people think we've actually received a hurricane, which is nonsense. A very potent storm for the time of year, yes, but no hurricane.

Well I wasn't around at the time, i only ever heard stories about it!!!

M.T. Cranium

Colin has reformed as a TS, the NHC advisory may be slow to be posted on their website due to internet problems, but I've seen it ... the track is predicted to be almost directly over Bermuda in about 48h as a 55-65 knot strong TS and then towards the Grand Banks southeast of Newfoundland.

There are no official predictions of it reaching cat-1 hurricane strength but the way it is redeveloping this is possible. The current location is fairly close to 26 N 66 W.

maquiladora

thetonynator

@maquiladora

Is that the actual projected size of Colin, or is it the area in which it could travel???

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

@maquiladora

Is that the actual projected size of Colin, or is it the area in which it could travel???

Thats the NHC's 5 day forecast track cone, not the size, the cone gets wider because the track gets more uncertain.

maquiladora

Looks like Colin will peak in a few days as a fairly strong Tropical Storm, could brush by Newfoundland.

Meanwhile we have Invest 93 now, some of the models are saying this will be our D storm in a couple of days. Looks like it should be a fish though.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

A very potent storm for the time of year, yes, but no hurricane.

Can it be even classed as a storm? winds didn't seem to have been particularly strong during the event, at least according to the met eireann's August 86 monthly bulletin. Although, come to think of it, sustained windspeeds could well have been very high with little gusting but that I do not know for sure.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Can it be even classed as a storm? winds didn't seem to have been particularly strong during the event, at least according to the met eireann's August 86 monthly bulletin. Although, come to think of it, sustained windspeeds could well have been very high with little gusting but that I do not know for sure.

It was packing 50mph sustained winds as it reached Ireland, according to the NOAA file attached below, but I remember it more for the rainfall, and the flooding in Duleek, Co Meath.



Here are some reports for stations in the south on the 25th-26th August.

STATION.......MAX SUSTAINED/MAX GUST (MPH)....RAIN (MM)
Roche's Point..46/64....84.1
Rosslare.........40/61....57.9
Valentia.........38/72....33.0

More figures here http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Ireland/IE.html

.

WHL

In relation to Charlie back in 1986, the GAA team that I played with had one of those containers from a CIE freight train as a dressing room (things were not as fancy back then). During Charlie, the container took off and basically travelled about 180m - going over a 10foot embankment and 6 foot wire fence in the process - and only touched the ground once in that distance. I have never seen anything like that since.

Deep Easterly

Nice data bank attached there Su. Might rustle up a few graphs over the weekend from it.

snowstreams

WHL wrote: »

...During Charlie, the container took off and basically travelled about 180m - going over a 10foot embankment and 6 foot wire fence in the process - and only touched the ground once in that distance...

That sounds like serious wind alright! Luckily no one was injured. Did you see the container at the time?

fishmahboi

Any new updates on this tropical storm?

thetonynator

fishmahboi wrote: »

Any new updates on this tropical storm?

I think it died a premature death.

maquiladora

fishmahboi wrote: »

Any new updates on this tropical storm?

Colin is gone, but a new storm is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a Tropical Storm in a few days.

Also a couple other areas of interest.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/