Heatwave in August?

WolfeIRE

Thread for discussion on possibility of a heatwave this month


To start off here is monthly outlook by BBC.

Published at 10:00, 2 August
(Next update at 10:00, 9 August)
Written by Philip Avery

Summary

Little sign of a long, hot summer

Statistics, as we all know, can hide the truth of the matter. By the latter part of July, the UK had received 146% of its average July rainfall.
Scotland, Wales as a whole and Northern Ireland all received over 150% of their monthly average. Capel Curig in north Wales received a hefty 340mm of rain. England too saw some 103% of its average, but parts of East Anglia and the southeast received just 20% of the average - only 5mm in places.
It is also worthy of note that Northern Ireland experienced its dullest July since records began in 1927. It was also notably cloudy across northwest England, north Wales and the west of Scotland.
Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 8 August 2010
Gardeners' delight but dismay for holidaymakers

A weak ridge of high pressure will fail to kill off showers across eastern Britain on Monday. More western areas should experience a drier and somewhat brighter day. Even here, Atlantic fronts will eventually spread cloud and some patchy rain to northwest Scotland and the far west of Northern Ireland by the end of the day.
The rain should have cleared much of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The remnants of the front will drift into western England and Wales, but rainfall amounts will be minimal. Southern and eastern England may see the odd shower but should stay dry. Rain may run into southern England overnight but be gone by Wednesday day. Rain or showers will lie across Scotland and Northern Ireland by this stage.
Thursday looks to be a cool, showery day for all but the south of Wales and southwest England. More fronts may bring rain back into the west of the British Isles by Friday.

Monday 9 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010
High pressure builds but fails to settle the north

The unsettled weather seen across the British Isles during the first week in August will gradually become confined to northern parts. High pressure builds across the south to bring a settled spell to south wales and southwest England.
On the whole, it should be drier than normal in many parts, although northern Scotland may see further rain. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm, possibly slightly above in the sunnier south.

Monday 16 August 2010 to Sunday 29 August 2010
Chance of hot weather marking the end of August

The second half of the month will see further spells of rain across northern Britain and also at times in western areas. Wet weather in the west will be transitory with a good deal of dry weather here. More may be expected in the south and east.
Temperatures will be at or above the seasonal norm with a low chance that a spell of hot, sunny weather may affect wales and southern England.
Rain fall will be average or below, especially in southeast England.

lord lucan

I shouldn't have read that,i'm even more depressed now!:(

Birdnuts

Not suprised - The models suggest that this August will fail to deliver, just like 9 out of the previous 10 in the last decade:(

WolfeIRE

not next week anyway:(

met eireann
The weather will be cool and very unsettled on MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week with heavy showers or longer spells of rain in all areas.

Mobhi1

GFS and ECM both have LP to our east for next week now; the HP has retreated further to the southwest.

pauldry

No real prolonged hot spells for August just maybe the odd warm day in the second half of the month. It will feel quite Autumnal unfortunately.

Su Campu

GFS and ECMWF are increasingly agreeing on a 90° progressive phase shift in the global pattern over the next week, with ridging on the US west coast expanding eastwards, shifting the persistant upper low over east Canada eastwards over the Atlantic. This puts the jetstream on a track to the north of us, causing the Azores High to expand and establish itself over us by the end of next week.

Not sure how stable this setup would be, as at this time of the year as low pressures tend to reside on the east of continents and highs over the western ocean, so this shift would be going against the grain. But with a bit of luck the high could remain, though at the moment it looks like initially feeding a west to northwest airflow over us, more conducive to low level cloud decks than heatwaves. If it were to expand further north and east of us, with a cutoff low over Biscay/Iberia, then that would be our best bet for heat. The 12Z ECMWF hints at that starting to happen out at 240hrs, but that is subject to change of course.

delw

cheers SU CAMPU,mt touched on this as well in his update so with both of you saying similar there is hope yet,but as you say it is against the grain however fingers crossed

thetonynator

Indian summer ftw!!!

Gonzo

The summer is screwed, the last few days have been very chilly at times, I know back in the beginning of July once the Atlantic showed signs of a breakdown in the dry warmish spell we had all June, that it marked the end of summer. We have more than made up for the dry weather with another record breaking wet July and now were in for a cool and propably wet August. At this stage all I can hope for is that the Atlantic eventually settles down mid November in tune for a very cold winter.

thetonynator

Gonzo wrote: »

The summer is screwed, the last few days have been very chilly at times, I know back in the beginning of July once the Atlantic showed signs of a breakdown in the dry warmish spell we had all June, that it marked the end of summer. We have more than made up for the dry weather with another record breaking wet July and now were in for a cool and propably wet August. At this stage all I can hope for is that the Atlantic eventually settles down mid November in tune for a very cold winter.

I have to disagree with this; extremely dry december, january, february, april, may and june, with average or slightly less than average march and april aren't made up for by one very wet month. I'm not saying that it will be made up for, but one wet onth doesn't make a wet year.

compsys

thetonynator wrote: »

I have to disagree with this; extremely dry december, january, february, april, may and june, with average or slightly less than average march and april aren't made up for by one very wet month. I'm not saying that it will be made up for, but one wet onth doesn't make a wet year.

Yeah, but July was still a depressing month and difficult to bear. People keep saying:' Oh but we had a dry January, February and March'. Who cares if the winter months are dry: you want the nice sunny dry weather in summer when you can go out and do something in it.

The past three years have been pretty miserable weather wise. Dry winters and wet summers. The complete opposite of what you want in Ireland.

thetonynator

compsys wrote: »

Yeah, but July was still a depressing month and difficult to bear. People keep saying:' Oh but we had a dry January, February and March'. Who cares if the winter months are dry: you want the nice sunny dry weather in summer when you can go out and do something in it.

The past three years have been pretty miserable weather wise. Dry winters and wet summers. The complete opposite of what you want in Ireland.

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

yuloni

This post has been deleted.

jambofc

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

does it really matter if the weather was dry in winter or not??
people really wanted a good summer yes it was a lovely june,but july has been a washout and august is going the same way,after a very cold winter(i love them,bit more snow would have been nice in meath)i was hoping for a long hot summer,apart from a couple of weeks it hasn't come,the kids are sitting about i only got to cut my grass for the first time in about 3 weeks yesterday :eek:
summer is for sun and heat and we are heading into autumn soon not really what anybody wanted,maybe you are happy to be stuck in the house in july but i most certainly am not happy about it,there are plenty months ahead for that.....

Gonzo

Ive had enough of this crap summer weather, off to Spain next week for 2 weeks of real summer weather, im not gonna spend the rest of the summer looking out at grey skies and rain. There hasnt been a sunny day since the kids got off school 1st week of July.

Graces7

August 17th will be HOT...

We have a long journey/drive with the animals on board so it is bound to be HOT and sticky.. Not cool like today.

Watch and see:D

compsys

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

Yes, November was wet, but the real winter months of December, January and February were all extremely dry.

Also, from memory I think the last few winters have been reasonably dry, at least in the East.

Yeah, May and June were OK, but they were hardly amazing either. You want the really good weather in July, August and early September when the temps can get really high. Temps barely got much above 20 for all of May and June anywhere in the country.

Su Campu

12Z ECMWF and GFS still in agreement about the High staying in place through next weekend, with it moving off a bit to the northeast thereafter

ECMWF (500hPa and SLP)
12Z Sat 15th August

Joe Public

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive had enough of this crap summer weather, off to Spain next week for 2 weeks of real summer weather, im not gonna spend the rest of the summer looking out at grey skies and rain. There hasnt been a sunny day since the kids got off school 1st week of July.

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

!Pablo Fanquez!

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Sup. From up here on the Moon, I can see the weather as it's coming in. Gonna be a cloudy weekend hombres.
For those who don't use google earth there is a flash version on http://www.flashearth.com/ which NASA provide a daily updated link.
Just type any location into the search bar.
Incidentally the forest fires in Moscow Russia can clearly be seen.
Enjoy!

Deep Easterly

I really hope the latest ecmwf run is wrong in its forecast for a strenghening jet to the the northeast of the high before it has a chance to ridge into eastern Europe: (216hrs chart)



while the above would still bring relatively pleasant sunny weather, it wouldn't draw in any significant heat from the continent and more importantly, it would prevent any potentially thundery plumes that might develop over Biscay from making any inroads over Ireland.

However, it is just one run....

dfbemt

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

But the kids are in school until the end of June !!

People want to take their holidays, go out and do things when the kids are off school.

Whatever happened to the summers of past?

BEASTERLY

dfbemt wrote: »

Whatever happened to the summers of past?

We stopped manufacturing rose tinted glasses;)

thetonynator

compsys wrote: »

Yeah, May and June were OK, but they were hardly amazing either. You want the really good weather in July, August and early September when the temps can get really high. Temps barely got much above 20 for all of May and June anywhere in the country.

Temperatures may not have gotten very high, but they got to a reasonable level (i.e. above 20) most days from mid may til the end of June. We had consistant sunshine and very little rain.

To be honest, i'd prefer get 6 weeks of weather like that than a 2 week heatwave in August with uncomfortable heat.

Deep Easterly

thetonynator wrote: »

Temperatures may not have gotten very high, but they got to a reasonable level (i.e. above 20) most days from mid may til the end of June.

Yep, my personal highest temp of the of 2010 so far (I still cling on to a shred of hope) occurred in May which isn't even a summer month.

High temp in April: 20.4c
High temp in July: 20.9c :rolleyes:

Redsunset

Don't wanna jinx it but its looking very good now for a brief warm spell and i'd bank this chart any day.

mike65

Promising though the high pressure doesn't actually settle if the GFS can be relied upon. It simply moves in a north east direction over us then leaves...

Redsunset

Yeah like i say it looks brief,as in a few days at best but you never know.
Looking to get established from thursday with the 564 line riding up on west side of high.
As high centre approaches and moves east,northeast that warmer airmass wedge (564 thickness line) could easily stay somewhat intact and envelope parts if not all of the country giving a pleasantly sub-tropical feel for a time,especially at night (kick off the duvet period)before eventually bein pushed south.

alanajane

jambofc wrote: »

does it really matter if the weather was dry in winter or not??
people really wanted a good summer yes it was a lovely june,but july has been a washout and august is going the same way,after a very cold winter(i love them,bit more snow would have been nice in meath)i was hoping for a long hot summer,apart from a couple of weeks it hasn't come,the kids are sitting about i only got to cut my grass for the first time in about 3 weeks yesterday :eek:
summer is for sun and heat and we are heading into autumn soon not really what anybody wanted,maybe you are happy to be stuck in the house in july but i most certainly am not happy about it,there are plenty months ahead for that.....

yes I agree 100% with you, I so sick of not being able to go out for walk without sunscreen, umbrella and wooly coat, total pain in the ass.

Not

Joe Public wrote: »

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

But its been mostly sun through gaps in grey purple rain bearing clouds, so you just dont know if it will be lashing rain 20 (or even 5) minutes later