Heatwave in August?

pauldry

Joe Public wrote: »

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

Maybe in Leinster and Munster but in Connaught it was the Dullest July in manys a long year (1927 in Ulster!)

WolfeIRE

Weather situation looking good out to Monday on the latest GFS


Things look like drying out from tomorrow afternoon onwards, with the exception of Ulster and N Connaught which may see some light rain or drizzle on Wednesday. Saturday might also bring some light rain or drizzle to the west coast. Irish sea coastal areas may also see some light rain/drizzle on sunday morn.

Temps look like hitting high teens from Thursday onwards and the low 20s at the weekend, the best of the temps in the Mid West.

Fingers crossed that later runs will further improve our prospects.

lucy2010

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Weather situation looking good out to Monday on the latest GFS


Things look like drying out from tomorrow afternoon onwards, with the exception of Ulster and N Connaught which may see some light rain or drizzle on Wednesday. Saturday might also bring some light rain or drizzle to the west coast. Irish sea coastal areas may also see some light rain/drizzle on sunday morn.

Temps look like hitting high teens from Thursday onwards and the low 20s at the weekend, the best of the temps in the Mid West.

Fingers crossed that later runs will further improve our prospects.

Hey wolfe, Baby wolfe must be getting big now!

Anyway I cant remember what channel it was but they were suggesting a breaking down of the blocking in mid europe to all the russian heat over to us togive us a scorcer to the end of august ?Any sign yet ?

WolfeIRE

lucy2010 wrote: »

Hey wolfe, Baby wolfe must be getting big now!

Anyway I cant remember what channel it was but they were suggesting a breaking down of the blocking in mid europe to all the russian heat over to us togive us a scorcer to the end of august ?Any sign yet ?

Hi Lucy. 7 months now and all is well thanks:)

Joe Bastardi of Accuweather mentions a break around august 15th (end of weekend).
Whether this will have some effect on our weather remains to be seen. Model outputs from next 2-3 days will tell all

JOE B post:
SATURDAY 11 AM

Pattern in Europe to give break to Russia after 15 August.
There severity of the heat this summer in areas of eastern Europe is similar to what happened in 2003, BUT FURTHER EAST. The fact is that a warm summer was called for from this forecaster for much of Europe back in the late winter. Its not brain surgery..reversing enso signal warm amo, warm mediterranean and that is what happens One only need look at the blend of similar situations via analogs to see this. The analogs of 1995,1998,2003,2005,2007, with el nino winters before show not only the temps for the summer in Europe, but in the US too. Which should further leave mouths wide open as to how this summer in the US, and in europe into Asia should have been a slam dunk for forecasters! At the very least, the US gov idea of a cool winter here in the states was borderline laughable, given history. To take it one step further, and then blame global warming for a forecast you did not see ... its like a vaudeville show
Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere we are seeing examples of severe cold. But remember we dont have as much land there , so its impossible to see as much cold in the southern hemisphere, as warmth in the northern hemisphere.

Now remember, there is a heck of a lot less land in the southern hemisphere for extreme cold to show up over than there is land in the northern hemisphere for extreme heat ( or cold) Asia is going to have a brutal winter this year, perhaps in line with the winter of 05-06. But the fact is that when dealing with the energy considerations needed for a true representation of what the global energy balance is, the change over the southern hemisphere in temperature masks counter cooling that may be occurring. The point is the same pattern producing the increase in sea ice in the southern hemisphere is impressive as the pattern that has produced a decrease in sea ice in the northern hemisphere. The extremes over land will be much greater than the extremes over water, but in terms of the energy considerations, they changes may be small. We will find all this out over the coming year.

In any case I expect the areas frying in the eastern part of Europe ( Moscow) to break but overall the warm euro summer, which one could see simply by matching up the analogs, that was coming is certainly here

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

WolfeIRE

BBC Monthly outlook with references to Ireland
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/

thetonynator

lovely day here today, constant sunshine since about 11.30, a few drops of rain before that. feels really warm, above 20 most of the day i'd say . . .

M.T. Cranium

This is the raw output from the GFS for temperatures in Ireland away from the cooling effects of sea breezes:

Max temps (C)

Tues 10th ... 18
Wed 11th ... 19
Thurs 12th .. 20
Fri 13th ...... 22
Sat 14th .... 24
Sun 15th ... 25
Mon 16th .. 27
Tues 17th .. 26

and while I don't consider the longer time frame all that reliable, the trend on the model is then just slowly back down towards 20 C.

One always has to ask, what could go wrong? Well, first of all, the warm ridge could decide not to build east and stay in the eastern Atlantic making this warmup too fast. Or large patches of low stratus cloud could develop and hold temperatures down. These are not indications supported by any models at present, so I think this scenario is looking at least 70% likely.

Towards the 17th the Russian heat wave flattens out and the core of the heat there moves towards Poland and Belarus. The indications are for some of the heat (and therefore the smoke trapped in the southeast flow) might drift as far west as Germany, but around the time that the warm high over Ireland and northern France begins to weaken and higher pressure near Iceland sends in fresher air (still rather warm) from the northeast. So the current indication would be for the smoke to disperse very gradually over central Europe and for any slight effects to drain into north-central France and then southward. But it remains possible for some of this smoke to show up in southeast England in very diluted form (like a six mile visibility in haze rather than the quarter mile in smoke they are getting in Moscow).

I hope you good people get this warm spell, I'm sure it will help both agriculture and tourism no end to have a week of warm, sunny weather.

Gonzo

im off 2 spain for 2 weeks and just as im about to leave the Irish weather finally shows signs of improving and the forecast for the region of Spain im heading to is not that great with heavy showers and some thunderstorms starting from Friday:)

lord lucan

Gonzo wrote: »

and some thunderstorms starting from Friday:)

Don't forget to pack the camera!;)

jambofc

charts a changeing looks like we will be lucky to get the weekend out of this "heatwave"

pauldry

Yup same ol story. 22 or 23 at best for the met stations. Maybe theyl squeeze a 24.

Next heatwave is next May:rolleyes:

Not

pauldry wrote: »

Yup same ol story. 22 or 23 at best for the met stations. Maybe theyl squeeze a 24.

Next heatwave is next May:rolleyes:

Sounds like someone will be going around in woolly jumpers moaning its squeezing cold while everyone else will be enjoying the very pleasant 22 or 23 or 24 :rolleyes::pac::D

Bring on 22 or 23 ...:) or 24 ...:cool: you're all very welcome.

jambofc

no heatwave here,nothing to see move along now......

Saturday looks not to bad for the east south east and dry sunday,but looking at charts it's rain all the way next week.......:mad:

nacho libre

jambofc wrote: »

no heatwave here,nothing to see move along now......

Saturday looks not to bad for the east south east and dry sunday,but looking at charts it's rain all the way next week.......:mad:

given the pattern we've had of late i wouldn't rule out an indian summer just yet!

WolfeIRE

the current dry-ish spell ending on Tuesday morn according to GFS.

Atlantic influence reestablishes and it looks quite unsettled for the middle days of next week.

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the current dry-ish spell ending on Tuesday morn according to GFS.

Atlantic influence reestablishes and it looks quite unsettled for the middle days of next week.

Oh good a few days of 23c and wall to wall sunshine and then back to 14c temps and we can go straight to autumn temps great!:cool:

Birdnuts

owenc wrote: »

Oh good a few days of 23c and wall to wall sunshine and then back to 14c temps and we can go straight to autumn temps great!:cool:

Yeah - I think the game is up after next monday for summer 2010, might get a few nice days in September but then that is an autumn months and the days will be getting much shorter:(

owenc

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yeah - I think the game is up after next monday for summer 2010, might get a few nice days in September but then that is an autumn months and the days will be getting much shorter:(

Ugh naw why would you want any more warm days after this, over on netweather them ones in the southeast are talking about 20c days in october and i'm going to vomit! I want cold not more 20c!:mad: I'm sick too death of being all sweaty and itchy its so **** and anyway when its 20c its always cloudy and raining!

mike65

Can someone put this thread out of its misery. Whatever chance we had has now gone.

WolfeIRE

ME for tomorrow
Warm and dry tomorrow Sunday with sunny spells in all areas. Top afternoon temperatures 19 to 23 C., - highest in the Midwest and Southwest.

From MT
SUNDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, hazy, quite warm, highs 21-23 C but low cloud may be present near west coast at times with sea fog.

Monday will see a heavy band of rain moves east across the country in the late evening, introducing us back into the familiar pattern of frontal systems spreading in from the atlantic.

Dry day everywhere tomorrow so make the most of it.

mike65

Oh how I'd laugh if this happened at the death of summer. Live image so will change in the next day or so.