Pyro's 2010/11 Football Bets!

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

yes today he did,it's not a way to make profit long term,watch this space,

Good man HB, wonderful insight as always. I'll gamble MY money how I see fit. You said similar about me and my horse betting thread, you were wrong there, eh?

Anyways, this is my bets thread so keep your opinions to yourself in future.

ft9

digme wrote: »

Just a bit of constructive criticism I think you bet on too many things that's why your not winning much.

How is that constructive? Id really like to hear an explanation to that statement.

Its his thread, i did not hear anyone say what bets he should or should not have made before a ball was kicked. Easy to talk now, even though unlike many, myself included, he is in profit today!
How a man in profit can be "constructively criticised" is feckin beyond me!

ft9

heavyballs wrote: »

yes today he did,it's not a way to make profit long term,watch this space,

And By the way.........
WTF?

dennymin

bit of a chip on someones shoulder

ziedth

I came across this yesterday morning and said I'd stick a few quid on your fulham/Blackpool.

You have me hooked

Also had €5 on Wigan to beat spurs 1-0 so had a good day for a change.

deise48

ziedth wrote: »

I came across this yesterday morning and said I'd stick a few quid on your fulham/Blackpool.

You have me hooked

Also had €5 on Wigan to beat spurs 1-0 so had a good day for a change.

are you not a spurs fan?

TangyZizzle

deise48 wrote: »

are you not a spurs fan?

What difference would it make if he was or wasn't?

x PyRo

dennymin wrote: »

bit of a chip on someones shoulder

At least they can afford chips.

:pac: Only messing, thread hasn't went well at all yet but it's my bets thread, I hate being told how to gamble my own money. It's awful annoying, people are entitled to their opinions but I'd prefer if they kept it off my thread and to themselves!

ziedth wrote: »

I came across this yesterday morning and said I'd stick a few quid on your fulham/Blackpool.

You have me hooked

Good stuff Ziedth, don't get too hooked or it can be an expensive venture. :pac:

Vurnon San Benito

Dead right - Every person is entitled to gamble their money the way they want to.

Although, if you did bet on less games you'd probably be more profitable in fairness. Then again, I enjoy looking at this thread and seeing what you've opted for compared to mine
KUTGW

UrbanSea

Personally I like to put my life savings on 100/1 shots,it'll come good some day,it did on Sole Power anyway :P Ano.

x PyRo

Bank update.

Bank - 81.37pts (-18.63pts)

Bets - 50
Wins - 12
SR - 24%
Staked - 118.30pts
Returned - 99.67pts


Not done well at all yet but that'll hopefully change. Sadly enough if I had the chance to get online to log those Bale bets against Stoke I'd be tidily in profit.

Can all the people who disagree with how I bet keep their opinions to themselves, I don't want to hear it! It's only a bit of fun for me, people can take what they want out of my opinions and back/lay/laugh at them if they want, but I don't want to hear it. Thanks for some of the nice comments from people, I appreciate it all. I don't appreciate HB saying wait and see, you'll be losing money. I'd never say that to him or anyone and wouldn't mind the same courtesy.

Aston Villa vs Everton

I'm expecting goals here, Villa shipped 3 against Vienna and managed to grab a couple themselves. They look dodgy at the back under new manager Kevin McDonald and will be weakened massively by losing James Milner who along with all his goals and assists he also defended superbly well for the team and he's a big loss. They also shipped 6 against Newcastle at St James' Park, looking all over the place at the back and were completely dominated in midfield and that could happen again today with the likes of Fellaini hopefully starting. Everton will be able to get about them and hopefully put them under pressure and grab an early lead to open the floodgates. I expect Everton will do well today and hopefully win 2-1 or so. Over 2.5 goals will be my main bet and looks a nice pirce at 11/10. Also, Tim Cahill has scored 4 times in his last 4 games against Villa and at 11/4 he looks decent odds to score anytime and I'll have a small bet on that.

Over 2.5 Goals - 3pts @ 11/10 (PaddyPower)
Cahill anytime - 1.37pts @ 11/4 (SkyBet)

x PyRo

1-0 to Villa after 8 minutes. Should draw Everton out to attack now.

x PyRo

Everton completely dominated Villa and should of won never mind drew. Crazy game altogether. No more football for a little while now.

el dude

Just curious. What are points? I've only ever gambled with money.

Verance

x PyRo wrote: »

Can all the people who disagree with how I bet keep their opinions to themselves, I don't want to hear it!

What's the point of posting on a forum if you only want to hear from people who agree with you? That's not going to make you or anybody reading a better gambler.

Peyton Manning

el dude wrote: »

Just curious. What are points? I've only ever gambled with money.

Points help determine the scale of confidence the better has.

In a scale of 1 - 5 points, 1 could be an outside bet with not much confidence of a win, while 5 points would be assuming a sure thing, with high confidence.

Its a better system to use, as if someone says "Im betting €50 on this", to one person that might be a lot of money and thus represent a high confidence bet, to someone else that might just be a flutter of an outside bet.

betstop

el dude wrote: »

Just curious. What are points? I've only ever gambled with money.

A good question, many people are confused by ''points''. It's your staking plan would be the short answer. A points system should increase your ROI and so make you more money if used correctly. Many people think the more points staked, the more likely the selection will win, but this is false. A good points system should be concerned with the value in a selection.

I use a points system of 1-3. A 1 point bet has a 15-30% edge, 2 points is 30-60% and 3 points is 60%+. So if a horse is priced 10/1 but I think it should be 5/1 that's an 83% (11.0/6.0-1) edge so a 3 point bet. That's just my system. Hugh Taylor uses a 1-5 points system. His 3 pointer has a 60% edge, I believe.

x PyRo

Verance wrote: »

What's the point of posting on a forum if you only want to hear from people who agree with you? That's not going to make you or anybody reading a better gambler.

You've completely taken that quote out of context. I don't mind people with constructive criticism at all, I don't like people saying "oh this will lose money in the long run" etc etc. The same man who said it's "impossible" to make money from betting on horses, just because he can't and I can.

Verance

x PyRo wrote: »

You've completely taken that quote out of context. I don't mind people with constructive criticism at all, I don't like people saying "oh this will lose money in the long run" etc etc. The same man who said it's "impossible" to make money from betting on horses, just because he can't and I can.

Ok, fair enough, HB is full of **** in fairness, take no notice!

Must say, I agree with Digme about cutting back on the bets. Remember how your horses log changed when you reduced your bets. Cutting out the 1/2 pointers and putting more on the high confidence ones. But feck it, tis your log, i'm just wandering through!

x PyRo

Cheers dude, now that's the stuff I like to hear! I'll take a step back over the football break and re-think my strategy, I just love betting on multiple games on football to make Soccer Saturday on SkySports more interesting. :pac:

Thanks to you and Digme though, I understand where ye're coming from totally and I'll work on it. Hopefully it'll go on an upwards curve like the horses.

ValueSeeker

This is simple.

Assuming you can estimate probabilities accurately and spot value, then the more bets you can make, the better.

If you are not good at the maths side of betting, you should be more selective.

Profitable betting is all about finding value, nothing else and the more informed you are, the more bets you can obviously make.

x PyRo

Percentages are the most important side of my selections, followed by my own "knowledge" and a bit of guess work.

I do up my own 100% books on all horse bets and football bets and follow the value then. It hasn't worked out as of yet on this thread but I still feel I'm finding the value, just having a bad run. I do like having numerous bets if I find them, more often that not I do.

I think if I combine the value side and be a bit more selective with higher stakes on the ones I find are of more value then it'll work out in the long run. Certainly has with the horses anyways.

Thanks for the input, much appreciated.

heavyballs

x PyRo wrote: »

Good man HB, wonderful insight as always. I'll gamble MY money how I see fit. You said similar about me and my horse betting thread, you were wrong there, eh?

Anyways, this is my bets thread so keep your opinions to yourself in future.

at the start of your horse betting thread you asked people to commet on the bets once they wern't getting abusiive ,i didn't abuse you,did i?

it's amazing,when your horses don't win most of the time it was bumped or bad ride etc etc etc,similar story with the footie,you're never wrong it seems,admit it you can't take constructive criticism,and btw ban me fron the forum if i abuse u but don't tell me to keep my opinions to myself ffs,that's just silly.i wasn't trolling,i was giving an honest opinion

ValueSeeker

x PyRo wrote: »

Percentages are the most important side of my selections, followed by my own "knowledge" and a bit of guess work.

I do up my own 100% books on all horse bets and football bets and follow the value then. It hasn't worked out as of yet on this thread but I still feel I'm finding the value, just having a bad run. I do like having numerous bets if I find them, more often that not I do.

I think if I combine the value side and be a bit more selective with higher stakes on the ones I find are of more value then it'll work out in the long run. Certainly has with the horses anyways.

Thanks for the input, much appreciated.

You're doing fine.

I've popped in to the thread a few times and your write ups are good, you're paying attention to the detail and alluding to some of the key variables needed in finding value in the markets you're betting. I can tell you are at least clued up on the maths of it.

I could point out a few things that may help though:

First of all, I get the feeling this thread is stressing you out and you're sort of feeling the need to 'put things right' hense maybe making a few bets that you probably sub consciously know you shouldn't be making, in the hope they'll get you back on track. This is very very common.

Remember that -20 points is not a bad total at all and 1 that can easily be turned around and anyone who knows their betting realises this so you shouldn't put yourself under pressure. If you're betting the prices you're betting, losing months will happen even for the experts. I've had months where I've lost ove 40pts in the football betting. 20pts really is nothing.

On your staking system, just be a little more careful. A max bet (5pts) should really only be used on the highest confidence bets. 5pts is my max stake and I very rarely make a 5pt bet.

On the whole though, you've definitely got potential and you'll only get better. When things aren't running well, just take a step back and have a watching brief for a bit until you feel ok again to make your bets only from a purely mathematical point of view.

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

at the start of your horse betting thread you asked people to commet on the bets once they wern't getting abusiive ,i didn't abuse you,did i?

it's amazing,when your horses don't win most of the time it was bumped or bad ride etc etc etc,similar story with the footie,you're never wrong it seems,admit it you can't take constructive criticism,and btw ban me fron the forum if i abuse u but don't tell me to keep my opinions to myself ffs,that's just silly.i wasn't trolling,i was giving an honest opinion

HB, I value your opinion and you're great at the golf betting, it's just the way you said it. It was quite ignorant IMO, I know you've never "abused" me, not that I'd mind, I enjoy the banter. I don't want to keep going on and on about it so we'll just leave it here. It'll just end up going in circles. All the best Sir.

ValueSeeker wrote: »

I could point out a few things that may help though:

First of all, I get the feeling this thread is stressing you out and you're sort of feeling the need to 'put things right' hense maybe making a few bets that you probably sub consciously know you shouldn't be making, in the hope they'll get you back on track. This is very very common.

I always get like that with gambling when I'm on a bad run, just feels like I'm getting hit when I'm down. I don't chase losses by upping the ante or having extra bets but I do notice my betting style sometimes changes and I find I get a bit more desperate to find that elusive winner, novice mistakes but then again that's all I am in gambling terms. So much to improve on and I'll do my best to cut this out from now on.

Remember that -20 points is not a bad total at all and 1 that can easily be turned around and anyone who knows their betting realises this so you shouldn't put yourself under pressure. If you're betting the prices you're betting, losing months will happen even for the experts. I've had months where I've lost ove 40pts in the football betting. 20pts really is nothing.

Hopefully it can be turned around. I'm going to take a step back now during the break and have a look at where I've went wrong, I always make mistakes and even when I started taking the horse racing quite seriously I messed up a few times and it cost me quite a few quid but I'll live and learn.

On your staking system, just be a little more careful. A max bet (5pts) should really only be used on the highest confidence bets. 5pts is my max stake and I very rarely make a 5pt bet.

I notice I've used the max bets too often alright, I just do it based on the amount of cash I'm putting on myself. I'll also take a closer look at this and try and work out a few things.

On the whole though, you've definitely got potential and you'll only get better. When things aren't running well, just take a step back and have a watching brief for a bit until you feel ok again to make your bets only from a purely mathematical point of view.

Thank you, it means a lot and also, thanks for taking the time to reply. I'm only 20 myself and I've a hell of a lot to learn about gambling and quit making mistakes but hopefully (fingers crossed) that'll come in time. I'm very competitive and when I've a bad run I do tend to get a bit wilder with my betting habits, I do gamble for fun but I don't like losing, as with everyone I suppose!

Thanks once again, top man.

argosy2006

el dude wrote: »

Just curious. What are points? I've only ever gambled with money.

a pt is what ever amount you bet with,
for me its 20.00 , so a 5 pt bet is 5x20=100
but to u a pt could be a fiver,,so fiver x 5pt bet =25 to u
if its a 2pt bet, its a 10 for you, 40 for me,
it also gives you a degree of how confident the tipster is,
at moment thread is minus 18pts, so its - 360 to me,
or 5x18= minus 90 with fiver stakes,
hope that explains it,

Cavehill Red

ValueSeeker wrote: »

This is simple.

Assuming you can estimate probabilities accurately and spot value, then the more bets you can make, the better.

If you are not good at the maths side of betting, you should be more selective.

Profitable betting is all about finding value, nothing else and the more informed you are, the more bets you can obviously make.

Agree with everything else except the bit in bold.
Profitable betting is all about finding WINNERS, nothing more.
A so-called 'value' bet is worth nothing when it's lost.
I make a fair profit over the long-run, backing things I know about. I know plenty of people with their calculators out, doing math to work out whether their estimation of likelihood exceeds that of the bookie or not.
Bottom line is, don't bet on things just because a bookie offers attractive odds, unless you're happy that your outcome is likely to succeed.
I don't need to hammer away at the calculator, and I turn a decent profit, because I bet on what I know, track the ROI closely, and paper trade a sport for a bit when I see I'm not doing so well at it.
Currently, I've been suffering in certain football leagues and in tennis. My eye is obviously out and I'm not sufficiently informed. So I'll paper trade for a fortnight and see if I start performing better without any risk. If I do, I'll step back in again.
In other areas - GAA and cricket in particular - I'm doing well and will keep betting intuitively on them until my ROI starts falling.
I don't believe in 'value' betting. The only true value bets are hedges.

EI111

x PyRo wrote: »

I do up my own 100% books on all horse bets and football bets and follow the value then.

Find it hard to believe you would ever do a first goalscorer bet if this is true seeing as they are terrible value bets

x PyRo

Not on those obviously, wouldn't have a notion how to go about pricing that up tbh.

EI111

I'd strongly advise you to avoid those bets not alone for the fact that they represent poor value but also they used to contribute to 'tilt' effect for me.

I'd get so pissed off losing one that my judgement would be clouded and I wouldn't watch the game in question objectively and learn from it for future betting. I would find myself focusing mainly on that one player. Handicap betting is another one with a similar effect.

Anytime goalscorer can be value if you expect team to score more than the bookies do but avoid first goalscorer like the plague, it's designed for degenerates down the pub