GAA Betting

Mountainlad

Mountainlad wrote: »

Have a double on Clare + 8 and Galway + 3.

Kerry have lost O'Donoghue and Cooper to injury, and of course Galvin and Tomas O Se have retired. Few players a year older as well on what's been a long road and a very inexperienced backline.

Clare will in all probability have been looking towards this game and have had two preparation games against Waterford, not to mention being at home. Though a better team, Tipp should have beaten a Cork team well favoured to win Munster in the Pairc. That has done nothing to put me off this.

The other game, I think Galway will have learned more about themselves than Kilkenny. Mark Kelly starts again for example, in my opinion against a better team he would be found out. Michael Fennelly is a massive loss, not sure that Shefflin is the loss some would claim to be honest at this stage but Fennelly was the only real notable absentee when they were struggling last year.

Feel like they will push Kilkenny all the way and may even overcome them, but at the odds of 3.4/1 on this double I was happy just to take this instead.


Also, real small stake on this but Clare are 12/1 with Betfair sportsbook to lead at half time, compared to next best 13/2.

Jaysus

Mantis Toboggan

Buddy Holly wrote: »

4 points is the handicap in the kilkenny game. Just lumped on.

Never backed kilkenny in my life before and the first time I do they fcuk it up.

Shower of pricks

skippymac6

Buddy Holly wrote: »

Never backed kilkenny in my life before and the first time I do they fcuk it up.

Shower of pricks

Yeah you were unlucky there. I couldn't decide so took the easy option and went over the total points mark

manafana

skippymac6 wrote: »

Points fest in Tullamore? I was surprised to see the total points mark at only 45.5 in the Galway vs Kilkenny game. I agree with Mountainlad in that Galway will be better today and should score and obv Kilkenny will too. I'm taking the over 45.5 there.

Also Donegal -7 against Antrim. Antrim did dispose of Fermanagh last time but I think Donegal will be looking to make a statement and I reckon they'll cover the -7.

nicely tipped mate

Radonman

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Hope you stayed on the lash! We were lucky to score 0 goals, blessed to win!!
Thought we would hammer them, one to watch in the qualifiers.

Yup - missed the kick off and did not even know the result till this morning thankfully, a good night though

grattanspuds

Mountainlad wrote: »

Jaysus

Well in, some lovely tipping there. I've noticed some good prices on underdogs to be leading at half time in a number of games, haven't backed it yet though. Most teams seem capable of keeping it tight til half time until the favourites overrun them slightly in 2nd half. Definitely one to bear in mind

Mountainlad

Galway at the same price they were last weekend. Not having that, and had to have a go at Galway 11/4 with Sky Bet.

Biggest they are outside is 11/5 with 2/1 on Lads and Boyles. I don't just think this is value at that price, I think they will win the replay.

SheldonC17

Fancy Cavan (-2) and Tyrone (-8) both to cover the handicaps this weekend!

mjp

Barna @6/5 with powers in galway club football championship against lettermore is massive price. Local bookmakers Mulhollands have them as 1/2 shots which is about right. Barna were Beaten after extra time by killererin in 1st round in a game they should have won . Lettermore were beaten by 12 points in 1st round and will find it tough to beat this barna side. Expect the powers prices to be aligned with local bookmaker knowledge later today so get on quick before price goes

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Mountainlad wrote: »

Galway at the same price they were last weekend. Not having that, and had to have a go at Galway 11/4 with Sky Bet.

Biggest they are outside is 11/5 with 2/1 on Lads and Boyles. I don't just think this is value at that price, I think they will win the replay.

I would be afraid that the goals wont come. Kilkenny scored at ease at times and are just more accurate, personally I think Galway had a chance to win last weekend but wont stay with Kilkenny next weekend.

With that said I see the value in taking 11/4 if even just to dutch at the half way mark

hupskip

mjp wrote: »

Barna @6/5 with powers in galway club football championship against lettermore is massive price. Local bookmakers Mulhollands have them as 1/2 shots which is about right. Barna were Beaten after extra time by killererin in 1st round in a game they should have won . Lettermore were beaten by 12 points in 1st round and will find it tough to beat this barna side. Expect the powers prices to be aligned with local bookmaker knowledge later today so get on quick before price goes

8/13 now.
Well spotted.

KevIRL

Laois +7 v waterford looks v good. I've seen worse 11/2 shots on the outright win too

Warper

KevIRL wrote: »

Laois +7 v waterford looks v good. I've seen worse 11/2 shots on the outright win too

Ive backed Waterford -6. They played well the first day against Cork and Galway's form is too erratic to read too much into their victory over Laois. Clare annihilated them in Ennis last year with pretty much the same chain of events as Waterford this year.

grattanspuds

SheldonC17 wrote: »

Fancy Cavan (-2) and Tyrone (-8) both to cover the handicaps this weekend!

I agree. Louth defence was totally exposed by Kildare and I'd expect Tyrone to put up a similar score on them. Louth beat Westmeath in first round, so they can't be much use, I'd expect cavan to have too much for Westmeath. Leitrim have lost a number of players from a camp which rumours would suggest isn't pulling together. I'm not sure they can keep within the 10 pt handicap of down. If Waterford footballers have any ambitions of pushing on, surely they need to be beating Carlow?

Collie D

Surely a 15 point handicap in Dublin-Wexford is too big?

Wexford have played Dublin a few times over last couple of years and always give them a game. 2012 Dublin won by four, in 2011 the gap was three and in 2010 game went to extra time.

Now, of course the Dublin team has improved and bookies probably have the number right but I am very tempted by that line. Wexford have a couple of injuries but I still think this is no more than a 10 point game.

10/11 widely available except Boyles the miserable bastards going 8/11. 11/10 +14 with PP for anyone who fancies odds against

robbiezero

Collie D wrote: »

Surely a 15 point handicap in Dublin-Wexford is too big?

Wexford have played Dublin a few times over last couple of years and always give them a game. 2012 Dublin won by four, in 2011 the gap was three and in 2010 game went to extra time.

Now, of course the Dublin team has improved and bookies probably have the number right but I am very tempted by that line. Wexford have a couple of injuries but I still think this is no more than a 10 point game.

10/11 widely available except Boyles the miserable bastards going 8/11. 11/10 +14 with PP for anyone who fancies odds against

I think it is very big. As you say, Wexford have always caused them problems.
Skybet with Wex +16 @ 5/6 is also an option.

CurryFlavoured

I'd be skeptical of what Wexford can do, all those close calls and nothing to show for it. More importantly though Jason Ryan is gone, I thought he did great with them. I think Dublin will win very comfortably, 15 is maybe stretching it. I'd be more willing to take -12 or 13, odds are a bit crap though.

Then again, I wasn't impressed with the win against Longford initially. After seeing them beat Derry, you never know.

Mountainlad

I don't think there is much value in the Laois v Waterford handicap, but if I had to call it Id be leaning in favour of Laois +7.

Wexford are being given a massive headstart, and like Reservoir Dubs Anchorman alluded to with Gway v KK match this might be a good game to back and look to trade off for a profit in play. The Dubs have been so far this year content to just be on an even keel at half time knowing they have a bench that can blow teams away, as they have been doing in the latter stages of their games so far. Could see that handicap being 7 or 8 points by half time.

risteard7

Meath Half time
Meath Full time 4/1. A lot of people will disagree but I'm on.

Boom__Boom

Collie D wrote: »

Surely a 15 point handicap in Dublin-Wexford is too big?

Wexford have played Dublin a few times over last couple of years and always give them a game. 2012 Dublin won by four, in 2011 the gap was three and in 2010 game went to extra time.

Now, of course the Dublin team has improved and bookies probably have the number right but I am very tempted by that line. Wexford have a couple of injuries but I still think this is no more than a 10 point game.

10/11 widely available except Boyles the miserable bastards going 8/11. 11/10 +14 with PP for anyone who fancies odds against

It's hard to know. In the last game the Dublin subs got 9 points, which is a huge amount for a subs bench to be contributing. As against that Laois did very well the last day out and I'm hard pressed to see Wexford doing as well.

Some here might not be aware of the excellent Dont Foul blog but he does excellent stats based analysis on football games. Might be useful for some.

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/dublin/

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/

Boom__Boom

CurryFlavoured wrote: »

I'd be skeptical of what Wexford can do, all those close calls and nothing to show for it. More importantly though Jason Ryan is gone, I thought he did great with them. I think Dublin will win very comfortably, 15 is maybe stretching it. I'd be more willing to take -12 or 13, odds are a bit crap though.

Then again, I wasn't impressed with the win against Longford initially. After seeing them beat Derry, you never know.

Derry were missing 6 players who started the Donegal game and had a 7th black carded. Longford had one of those days where everything went right for them - think it was 9/10 different scorers. In the end Longford only won by 2 points so wouldnt be drawing a whole lot about Wexford's form from this related result.

Collie D

Boom__Boom wrote: »

It's hard to know. In the last game the Dublin subs got 9 points, which is a huge amount for a subs bench to be contributing. As against that Laois did very well the last day out and I'm hard pressed to see Wexford doing as well.

Some here might not be aware of the excellent Dont Foul blog but he does excellent stats based analysis on football games. Might be useful for some.

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/dublin/

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/

Thanks for input. More I think about the more I'm convincing myself not to back it. Will be at the game tomorrow and don't want to be only one on Hill hoping Dubs ease off :pac:

Have a couple of World Cup bets on today so will see how they go first

sonnky

Boom__Boom wrote: »

It's hard to know. In the last game the Dublin subs got 9 points, which is a huge amount for a subs bench to be contributing. As against that Laois did very well the last day out and I'm hard pressed to see Wexford doing as well.

Some here might not be aware of the excellent Dont Foul blog but he does excellent stats based analysis on football games. Might be useful for some.

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/dublin/

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/

Thats a really useful tool! cheers man.

djPSB

Boom__Boom wrote: »

It's hard to know. In the last game the Dublin subs got 9 points, which is a huge amount for a subs bench to be contributing. As against that Laois did very well the last day out and I'm hard pressed to see Wexford doing as well.

Some here might not be aware of the excellent Dont Foul blog but he does excellent stats based analysis on football games. Might be useful for some.

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/dublin/

http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/

Rock and McManmanamon both start while Bernard Brogan misses out with injury.

Dublin won't have as many to call on from the bench this time. Think Dublin will win obviously but not as easily as people think.

My double for the weekend:
Wexford +16 v Dublin 8/13
Monaghan v Armagh less than 31 points 11/10

Double works out at 3.4/1

Collie D

Screw it - have backed Wexford +15. Hills going even money. Might also double up with something else around same price if I can see it. Thinking of Colombia to beat Uruguay. Hopefully as has been already posted will get a chance to go on Dublin -7 at some point

Radonman

Waterford v Laois later - over 43.5 @ 5/6 with Lads seems generous to me especially with Laois scoring 2-23 vTipp in a challenge game lately, that'sy main bet with a punt on Shane Walsh anytime goal @ 7/4 with Boyles

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

Waterford v Laois later - over 43.5 @ 5/6 with Lads seems generous to me especially with Laois scoring 2-23 vTipp in a challenge game lately, that'sy main bet with a punt on Shane Walsh anytime goal @ 7/4 with Boyles

So far so good - Shane Walsh with two already at half time

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

Waterford v Laois later - over 43.5 @ 5/6 with Lads seems generous to me especially with Laois scoring 2-23 vTipp in a challenge game lately, that'sy main bet with a punt on Shane Walsh anytime goal @ 7/4 with Boyles

Double Boom , 2-21 to 1-14 - Walsh with 2 goals so far

KevIRL

Radonman wrote: »

Double Boom , 2-21 to 1-14 - Walsh with 2 goals so far

Thoughts on today's games please mr Midas touch. Some strike rate lately, well played sir

hoopyhoopy

I see Stephen cluxton to score over 2.5 points is 5/6

Thinking of throwing €60 on it, does anyone know average game how many 45s he gets !?? I presume he hits over 3 most games !??