GAA Betting

K-9

Dots1982 wrote: »

I'm personally believe Monaghan are not much of a team and 9 points of a handicap will be beaten. Monaghan are slow on their feet, value muscle over athleticism & are a bit of a throwback team. What I mean by that is that the 2 best teams according to the bookies are all about speed and committing to attack. The sport has changed & the teams that play the non-ulster way are being rewarded.

That would explain 3 Ulster teams in the Quarters. I can see McManus getting room and scoring 1-4/5 here, not that it will matter much in the grand scheme of things. Doubt Monaghan will get beat by 14 points or so as Dublin have done in Leinster, but the Dubs will still be comfortable.

Dots1982

K-9 wrote: »

That would explain 3 Ulster teams in the Quarters. I can see McManus getting room and scoring 1-4/5 here, not that it will matter much in the grand scheme of things. Doubt Monaghan will get beat by 14 points or so as Dublin have done in Leinster, but the Dubs will still be comfortable.

We'll see, no ulster teams have played the big 2 or 3 yet. Think they will be in for a shock when they do.

LetsgoGAAGAA

djPSB wrote: »

I would disagree with this. Monaghan are going into this as massive underdogs, nobody gives them a chance. This will suit Monaghan down to the ground. I think the pressure of being favourites got to them in the last two games.

Also, think the fact that Monaghan played last weekend should be a help, they should hit the ground running.

I still think Dublin will win but Monaghan will make them work for it. I see Monaghan keeping close up to 60 mins or so before Dublin pull away and win by 6 or 7.

10 points is a big margin on a handicap especially at All Ireland Quarter Final stages.

I agree with you on a couple of fronts they are surely better than there championship performances suggest take Colin Walshe and Kieran Hughes in my mind 2 exceptionally talented players have been very poor to date in the championship. But visually they have been so poor in both games that I worry for them. If Kildare had made it through it would have been a massacre IMO and Monaghan are not much better based on their champ form to date.

Also the game last week brutal physically and mentally I think Tisa big negative for them they will be still analysing and coming down from the high of the Kildare win.

It's obvious they need to possibly change both formation and personnel to compete with the dubs 3 days is not enough time

LetsgoGAAGAA

Dots1982 wrote: »

I'm personally believe Monaghan are not much of a team and 9 points of a handicap will be beaten. Monaghan are slow on their feet, value muscle over athleticism & are a bit of a throwback team. What I mean by that is that the 2 best teams according to the bookies are all about speed and committing to attack. The sport has changed & the teams that play the non-ulster way are being rewarded.

That's a little harsh i think these counties are making the most of what's at their disposal not every team has 10 potential all stars on the bench like the dubs

The problem Malachy O'Rourke has is that teams have figured them out and plan b wasn't developed in time if there is even a plan b. the one massive chink of light for Monaghan is that dublin will not bother counteracting Monaghan like Donegal Armagh and Kildare (o'flaherty top class as sweeper in the game) so you could see Monaghan get a lot more flow and confidence in their play after being stymied the last couple of days.

The more I think about this Monaghan at the very least can perform to the level Laois did both are similar system wise and Monaghan are a good bit better if they go back to type

LetsgoGAAGAA

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

That's a little harsh i think these counties are making the most of what's at their disposal not every team has 10 potential all stars on the bench like the dubs

The problem Malachy O'Rourke has is that teams have figured them out and plan b wasn't developed in time if there is even a plan b. the one massive chink of light for Monaghan is that dublin will not bother counteracting Monaghan like Donegal Armagh and Kildare (o'flaherty top class as sweeper in the game) so you could see Monaghan get a lot more flow and confidence in their play after being stymied the last couple of days.

The more I think about this Monaghan at the very least can perform to the level Laois did both are similar system wise and Monaghan are a good bit better if they go back to type

It would be very beneficial to watch the league final and Tyrone games again as they definitely adapted the system to deal with the sweepers in the last couple of games

jibber5000

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

I agree with you on a couple of fronts they are surely better than there championship performances suggest take Colin Walshe and Kieran Hughes in my mind 2 exceptionally talented players have been very poor to date in the championship. But visually they have been so poor in both games that I worry for them. If Kildare had made it through it would have been a massacre IMO and Monaghan are not much better based on their champ form to date.

Also the game last week brutal physically and mentally I think Tisa big negative for them they will be still analysing and coming down from the high of the Kildare win.

It's obvious they need to possibly change both formation and personnel to compete with the dubs 3 days is not enough time

Last year Monaghan seemed to have unbelievable hunger allies to the dual threat inside of McManus and Hughes..Now Hughes is playing way out the field and is a shadow of the player he was.

This year the ferocity in their tackling has waned considerably.Against Kildare the defending was non existent for both goals and the great goal chance in the second half. Most egregious was the way Kildare were able to create Smiths goal chance with the last kick of the game..Not a hand was put near any Kildare player as they walked the ball down the pitch.

If McKenna plays the sweeper role again we could witness another scenario where the Dublin half backs are the main scorers especially with the lack of Kelly and Finlay occupying the other half forward positions..

Agree that 4-9 on Dublin is bombproof with smaller bets on Dub starting half back line as 1st goalscorer with PP doubling odds if inside first 15 minutes..

Only worry re the handicap is how awful Leinster has been..Meath Laois and Wexford are not top 16 teams in my opinion

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Dublin do look very tough to beat but I think Monaghan could stick with them for 60 minutes, I liked the Meath half time/Dubs fulltime in the Leinster final just for reasons that I thought Dublin had started slowly in the previous two. I still think that the Dublin team is prone to wastefulness early on and I will probably go with Monaghan halftime/Dublin full time. The tiredness hopefully will not kick in for Monaghan until the second half.

Warper

10 pts is a lot in football and Monaghan are a very solid defensive unit. This will easily be the best defense Dublin has come against this year. Dublin will win and win cosily but i would not bet that it will be more than 10 pts.

Ive gone with a double of KK @ 4-9 and Kerry ht-ft (v Mayo) @ 11-4. I dont see anything in the two football 1/4's this weekend

Dots1982

Warper wrote: »

10 pts is a lot in football and Monaghan are a very solid defensive unit.

3 of 4 provincial finals were won a margin greater than 10 points. Games are faster, higher scoring and the best attacks are goal focused, basically completely different to the football of the noughties. I think people are still previewing games by the standards of the games of 2 or 3 or 10 years ago.

Also don't think Monaghan are anything major defensively. They are defensive focused because their attack is below average but I dont think they have that many great defenders.

Warper

Dots1982 wrote: »

3 of 4 provincial finals were won a margin greater than 10 points. Games are faster, higher scoring and the best attacks are goal focused, basically completely different to the football of the noughties. I think people are still previewing games by the standards of the games of 2 or 3 or 10 years ago.

Also don't think Monaghan are anything major defensively. They are defensive focused because their attack is below average but I dont think they have that many great defenders.

Two of the provincial finals were won by 10 or more. Mayo never won by 10 plus and Donegal beat Monaghan by 3 which is the team we are talking about.

Granted Dublin are extremely high scoring and could blast Monaghan but the spread looks high and rightly so. Monaghan are a lot tighter than the likes of really poor defensive teams like Laois and Meath. I just couldnt have a bet in this.

LetsgoGAAGAA

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

Derry Club Championship

Glenullin play Banagher in a replay tomorrow night, i must say i was kind of expecting banagher to get the better of Glenullin the 1st day and the prices then were generally 4/6 Glenullin, Paddy & Eoin wouldn't have had much game time with the club this year due to other commitments and injury. Also they have other quality players like Neil McNicholl who was also stateside and was only back for the game last week. I know this goes against the grain but i really thought glenullin would come on for the run a lot more than Banagher. Paddy Bradley was supposed to have an knee injury going into the game so the fact he got 60 minutes under his belt has to be massive.

If i was a bookie 8/15 13/2 2/1 Glenullin solid 2pt favourites. Mark Lynch is good enough for me to recommend only an average stake at the 4/5!

Glenullin are up by 6pts 20 mins to go - Paddy Bradley & McNicholl with the goals

LetsgoGAAGAA

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

Glenullin are up by 6pts 20 mins to go - Paddy Bradley & McNicholl with the goals

Any Laois Club GAA Fans on the forum? A couple of prices caught my eye

passremarkable

I think in Westmeath football championship kilucan to beat Maryland at 5/4 is a decent price.
Maryland not going well and county forward in America . Kilucan going well and sister club raharney had great win at weekend and most play on both teams ...
Might be worth a look at

LetsgoGAAGAA

passremarkable wrote: »

I think in Westmeath football championship kilucan to beat Maryland at 5/4 is a decent price.
Maryland not going well and county forward in America . Kilucan going well and sister club raharney had great win at weekend and most play on both teams ...
Might be worth a look at

Who is the county forward and how long has he been gone? just want to cross check with there other results

passremarkable

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

Who is the county forward and how long has he been gone? just want to cross check with there other results

Callum McCormack.
Gone since county have finished, has missed last 2 group games, Maryland toothless without him. Kilucan ok at the moment...

mickey1979

stay away from Laois Football it's first round and results don't really matter it's next round that is interesting

Boom__Boom

On the Dublin handicap issue - I think the big factor in how much they win by will be how many goals they will score.

Monaghan have conceded 1 goal in their 4 championship games so far (in the replay versus Armagh) having played Tyrone, Donegal and Armagh twice.

Dublin have scored 2 goals v Laois, 2 v Wexford and 3 v Meath, which are impressive numbers until you look at the number of goal chances created by Dublin and it poses some questions about how clinical their forwards have been in terms of
I could easily see the number of goal chances being created dropping, which would mean the Dublin forwards would have to become more clinical to maintain the same outcomes in terms of goals scored.

The other thing on the handicap is that Laois got a total of 16 points, Wexford 15 points and Meath 13 points and they aren't exactly attacking powerhouses at this level - very hard not to see Monaghan getting fairly close to this, or bettering it given how their attack did against the much more defensive Tyrone, Armagh and Donegal sides.

Really don't think the handicap represents value here.

LetsgoGAAGAA

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

Any Laois Club GAA Fans on the forum? A couple of prices caught my eye

Ok nobody is getting back to me on this one, i see the bookies have stradbally favourites over the heath. Which traditionally would be the case but on this occasion i felt it is wrong.

A couple of reasons have led me to this conclusion, 1. Darren Strong played a league game with the Heath knowing what had happened Begley for doing the same and subsequently was dropped for the wexford. The Heath have had a very good league campaign and are in the Division 2 final all of which suggests they are putting in a massive effort. Stradbally's form is moderate in division 1. Also The Heath beat Stradbally last year and their trend graphs look to be going in opposite directions. 7/5 with Boyles looks big on my limited knowledge any thoughts on this

LetsgoGAAGAA

Boom__Boom wrote: »

On the Dublin handicap issue - I think the big factor in how much they win by will be how many goals they will score.

Monaghan have conceded 1 goal in their 4 championship games so far (in the replay versus Armagh) having played Tyrone, Donegal and Armagh twice.

Dublin have scored 2 goals v Laois, 2 v Wexford and 3 v Meath, which are impressive numbers until you look at the number of goal chances created by Dublin and it poses some questions about how clinical their forwards have been in terms of
I could easily see the number of goal chances being created dropping, which would mean the Dublin forwards would have to become more clinical to maintain the same outcomes in terms of goals scored.

The other thing on the handicap is that Laois got a total of 16 points, Wexford 15 points and Meath 13 points and they aren't exactly attacking powerhouses at this level - very hard not to see Monaghan getting fairly close to this, or bettering it given how their attack did against the much more defensive Tyrone, Armagh and Donegal sides.

Really don't think the handicap represents value here.

Anyone who thinks Tyrone are defensive have not seen them play in 2014, the defense had 3 forwards lining out in the half back line defensively they were all over the place this year, also why did you leave the Kildare game out which is possibly the most relevent as it was played in Croke Park and the only game not played in Clones. Your argument is completely flawed on a number of levels and misleading. Dublin have yet to field their strongest championship team to date and that is the key stat. Meath was the closest game to their AI team as it has got today

Dots1982

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Monaghan have conceded 1 goal in their 4 championship games so far QUOTE]

They conceded two vs Kildare, A kildare side that scored 2 goals in 4 champo games up to then. I simply think Monaghan are an overrated team that aren't in good form.

K-9

Dots1982 wrote: »

They conceded two vs Kildare, A kildare side that scored 2 goals in 4 champo games up to then. I simply think Monaghan are an overrated team that aren't in good form.

That would be more my take on it looking at their form, did well to come back and beat Kildare though and they've that never won a championship game in Croker thing of their back. I can't see anything like a 14/15 point defeat though and Monaghan do have a few exciting attacking players that can do damage against an open Dublin team.

LetsgoGAAGAA

K-9 wrote: »

That would be more my take on it looking at their form, did well to come back and beat Kildare though and they've that never won a championship game in Croker thing of their back. I can't see anything like a 14/15 point defeat though and Monaghan do have a few exciting attacking players that can do damage against an open Dublin team.

I do agree with you K9 but i think it's very possible dublin could rack up a big margin if they start quickly against monaghan because unlike the likes of cork or dublin they don't have the players score heavily in a game of this nature to comeback.

Dublin are going to create goal chances against every team they are just that good and Monaghan are certainly not the team that i would be sending out to stop them if my life depended on it, Donegal are obviously the best equipped to achieve this feat but none of the other teams are capable of doing this and i'm not suggesting that Donegal will do either.

K-9

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

I do agree with you K9 but i think it's very possible dublin could rack up a big margin if they start quickly against monaghan because unlike the likes of cork or dublin they don't have the players score heavily in a game of this nature to comeback.

Dublin are going to create goal chances against every team they are just that good and Monaghan are certainly not the team that i would be sending out to stop them if my life depended on it, Donegal are obviously the best equipped to achieve this feat but none of the other teams are capable of doing this and i'm not suggesting that Donegal will do either.

Well I suppose we are debating how much the defeat will be rather than Monaghan actually winning! In that context I'd be concentrating more on what Monaghan can score as I'd say it's a given Dublin will put up a good score.

2-16 against Kildare.
1-9 against Donegal and we all know Dublin are going to far more open.
1-18 and 0-14 against Armagh who play a defensive system unlike Dublin.
1-12 against Tyrone.

That's an average of 17 points or so a game, which I think they are more than capable of getting on Saturday, so we are basically looking at Dublin putting up 2-22 or something like that. For me they'll be doing very well to put up that much against them.

LetsgoGAAGAA

K-9 wrote: »

Well I suppose we are debating how much the defeat will be rather than Monaghan actually winning! In that context I'd be concentrating more on what Monaghan can score as I'd say it's a given Dublin will put up a good score.

2-16 against Kildare.
1-9 against Donegal and we all know Dublin are going to far more open.
1-18 and 0-14 against Armagh who play a defensive system unlike Dublin.
1-12 against Tyrone.

That's an average of 17 points or so a game, which I think they are more than capable of getting on Saturday, so we are basically looking at Dublin putting up 2-22 or something like that. For me they'll be doing very well to put up that much against them.

They're not going to get an extra 20 minutes against dublin to rack up 2-16 like they did against Kildare!

Slattsy

Im goint to put my neck on the line with this one, but i dont expect Monaghan to score any more than 10/12 points.

Warper

Just looked back there at the last 3 Dublin 1/4's against Tyrone, Cork and Laois and they have not won by more than 7 pts in any of them. Yes Dublin have never been better but surely there must be better 10-11 shots around

K-9

LetsgoGAAGAA wrote: »

They're not going to get an extra 20 minutes against dublin to rack up 2-16 like they did against Kildare!

Well played!

Say an average of 15 points, against defences not as open as Dublin. They may well end up with 10 points but I can't see the logic in that, that's just based on a hunch Monaghan will collapse.

Dots1982

K-9 wrote: »

Well played!

Say an average of 15 points, against defences not as open as Dublin. They may well end up with 10 points but I can't see the logic in that, that's just based on a hunch Monaghan will collapse.

Its based more on the belief (at least for me) that Dublin will be uping their intensity 20% on the laois and Wexford games which they slept-walked through. That they are now picking their best teams (Bernard Brogan didn't play much of a part before the leinster final..neither did Jack McCaffrey & Johnny Cooper missed the Leinster Final, not sure Alan Brogan will be playing as much a part as he has done up to now either)

My last point is debatable but I don't rate many of Monaghan's forwards.

djPSB

Forum seems split on the Dublin handicap.

Personally, I don't see value in Dublin -9.

All will be revealed on Saturday!

smacg

Just looking at last year though the most Dublin won any game from QF to final was by 7. They've had it easy in Leinster just like last year but its a QF different story and they will be happy to come away with a win on Saturday, I'd be surprised if its a rout. I think a plus 9 handicap for Monaghan at evens looks good.