GAA Betting

Sirtoyou

Abe_88 wrote: »

Cheers lads will stick it out so! I placed the bet with bet 365.

There is no harm cashing out a chunk and letting some ride if you choose. Just using the cash out is -ev and just giving it back to the bookmaker. Lay it off yourself for true value.

manafana

Sirtoyou wrote: »

There is no harm cashing out a chunk and letting some ride if you choose. Just using the cash out is -ev and just giving it back to the bookmaker. Lay it off yourself for true value.

cash out basically invented because it was in demand from those who wouldn't work out how trade out themselves, cash out is rubbish value basically doubling bookies margin

Copper_pipe

clare -1 @ 11/10

spurshero

Poor weather in most of the country . Done a small accum on the unders in the 2 hurling matches and 3 foitball matches excluding the tipp game . Under 49 . 5 in Clare under 45. 5 in Limerick and in the football under 32. 5 in Derry and Tyrone matches and under 34. 5 in Kildare .accum pays 20 to 1 so not really expecting it to come in but hoping weather pays havoc

mjp

Hearing that Dublin hurlers missing two defenders from named team so will be severely weakened at the back considering they won't have carton who walked off panel during the week to come in there. Limerick at 4/5 or -1 evens may be a good bet here if that's true.

spurshero

Pity cause of the 5 matches 4 won without much sweat . Sounds like Longford didn't show up at all as Kildare are very average

retalivity

Have dublin to not beat the 15.5 pt handicap today as the last leg of a treble, however I now really do fancy them to easily clear it...is thee any hope they won't??

spurshero

I only see a hammering . Their simply on a different level to Westmeath . If they keep their foot on the gas for the full 70 will be surprised if they don't cover the handicap

retalivity

Didn't have the balls to let it run, cashed out about 10 mins in for about 60%

FatRat

Tipp race to 25 points @6/5

fuzzydunlop85

Urgh dubs -13 let me down for 750 ! Raging how the fook did brogan miss that free in the last couple of minutes, not even sure it was wide tbh.

galwaylad14

yabadabado wrote: »

great call.Didnt think it would be that comfortable.

To be honest I didn't think it would be either! I fancied Wexford to win by about 7 or 8 but didn't think they'd destroy them the way they did.

Wexford96

Hello,
I saw Tipp footballers on the weekend and they seem to be a fine team. Does anyone feel they have a chance at beating Tyrone?
Thanks

CurryFlavoured

Wexford96 wrote: »

Hello,
I saw Tipp footballers on the weekend and they seem to be a fine team. Does anyone feel they have a chance at beating Tyrone?
Thanks

I didn't watch Tyrone or Tipp at the weekend, but Tyrone seemed to be struggling up until the goal and Tipp have been coming together very well the last few years. Ultimately you'd expect Tyrone to go through but I give Tipp a good chance especially seeing theyre at home.

Boom__Boom

Wexford96 wrote: »

Hello,
I saw Tipp footballers on the weekend and they seem to be a fine team. Does anyone feel they have a chance at beating Tyrone?
Thanks

A huge factor will be if Tipp concede goals.
They were the side that conceded the joint most goals (11) and the least number of points of all 32 teams in the league. Last year they had a couple of games where they conceded 4 goals. Louth were hapless the last day and that was the only game between the league and championship 9 games in total where Tipp didnt concede a goal. The concession of goals looks to be a significant issue for Tipp

As against that Tyrone's attack is definitely nothing to be all that afraid of - 1-10 against Donegal, 1-14 against Limerick and 1-10 against Meath in the championship isn't exactly scary stuff They only scored 3-76 in the league (a total of 85 points) of an average of 12 points a game.

Tyrone are a side who look very battle-hardened and experienced to me in comparison to Tipp but Tipp have some very decent forwards who are well capable of taking a score.

Maybe back Tipp to win but arbitrage some of the risk by backing Tyrone to score 1 or more goals maybe? If Tipp don't concede a goal I'd give them a great chance of winning. If they concede 1 their chances drop a fair bit and if they concede 2 or more it's hard to see them getting a result. Not exactly startling but I think goals in this game will be even more vital than normal.

Warper

Can see Mayo winning easy against Sligo - 6 pts 4-5 with BV the best available

Can see Kerry winning -2 @ 11-10 with PP also

xredmanlfcx

Waterford U21's -4 @ evens.

Rasputin11

On over 43.5 points at 7/4 with 365 in the Clare game, same line 11/10 with PP.

yabadabado

Rasputin11 wrote: »

On over 43.5 points at 7/4 with 365 in the Clare game, same line 11/10 with PP.

Last puck of the ball to get the 44:D

Rasputin11

yabadabado wrote: »

Last puck of the ball to get the 44:D

Always the way when you've the grand total of a tenner on!!

xredmanlfcx

xredmanlfcx wrote: »

Waterford U21's -4 @ evens.

Clare won by 2. Major shock to me and most others.

Waterford looked way better on paper and had far more seniors but maybe not 100% after Sunday's munster final.

laoisman11

I thought last week's prediction model output would be extremely difficult to achieve, nevertheless 2 out of 3 came in, giving a season total of 7 out of 9.

For this weekend's games, the model is going with :

• Tyrone by 3,2 (PP has spread of 1)
• Derry by 0,2 (PP has Galway by 1)
• Kerry by 2,1 (PP has 2)
• Mayo by 7,1 (PP has 6)
• Donegal by 0,1 (PP has 2)

Nothing of interest for me...........

sboyle01

Monaghan +3 5/6 on Boyles. Surely another close low scoring game. I expected
this to be more a 50/50 game than the bookies have priced it.

CurryFlavoured

sboyle01 wrote: »

Monaghan +3 5/6 on Boyles. Surely another close low scoring game. I expected
this to be more a 50/50 game than the bookies have priced it.

I was thinking the same. In Clones too.

Hulk Hands

laoisman11 wrote: »

I thought last week's prediction model output would be extremely difficult to achieve, nevertheless 2 out of 3 came in, giving a season total of 7 out of 9.

For this weekend's games, the model is going with :

• Tyrone by 3,2 (PP has spread of 1)
• Derry by 0,2 (PP has Galway by 1)
• Kerry by 2,1 (PP has 2)
• Mayo by 7,1 (PP has 6)
• Donegal by 0,1 (PP has 2)

Nothing of interest for me...........

How much are you taking home advantage into account? I'd personally have Galway favs over Derry on Neutral so i'd a big bet on 10/11 Galway yest. By your calcs you'd make Derry the better team by a decent amount? By a much bigger margin than the distance between Kerry and Cork?

Boom__Boom

sboyle01 wrote: »

Monaghan +3 5/6 on Boyles. Surely another close low scoring game. I expected
this to be more a 50/50 game than the bookies have priced it.

League result was Donegal 1-4 to Monaghan 0-9 in a dire game and the lineups were not that far from the likely starting 15s the next day. Both sides played ultra defensively. +3 looks like a big shout at those odds.

Hulk Hands

sboyle01 wrote: »

Monaghan +3 5/6 on Boyles. Surely another close low scoring game. I expected
this to be more a 50/50 game than the bookies have priced it.

You couldnt really go 50/50. Donegal have beaten Tyrone, Armagh and Derry. Monaghan have struggled by Cavan in comparison. Donegal had a better league campaign also. If it gets near 4/7 on the exchanges Sunday ill prob get stuck in

Warper

Boom__Boom wrote: »

League result was Donegal 1-4 to Monaghan 0-9 in a dire game and the lineups were not that far from the likely starting 15s the next day. Both sides played ultra defensively. +3 looks like a big shout at those odds.

You cant compare league to championship, its like comparing friendlies to competitive matches

Collie D

laoisman11 wrote: »

I thought last week's prediction model output would be extremely difficult to achieve, nevertheless 2 out of 3 came in, giving a season total of 7 out of 9.

For this weekend's games, the model is going with :

• Tyrone by 3,2 (PP has spread of 1)
• Derry by 0,2 (PP has Galway by 1)
• Kerry by 2,1 (PP has 2)
• Mayo by 7,1 (PP has 6)
• Donegal by 0,1 (PP has 2)

Nothing of interest for me...........

I'm curious about this model. How does it work? 7/9 is a decent enough short term result.

You've three there in the 0.1-1.2 range of HC and the other two differ by 1.9 to 2.2.

No value to be had on small bets of HC draws across the board if they're all predicted to be close enough to the spread? Or is there any value at all in that market? Have never backed handicap draw but they're regularly close enough.

Wexford96

Boom__Boom wrote: »

A huge factor will be if Tipp concede goals.
They were the side that conceded the joint most goals (11) and the least number of points of all 32 teams in the league. Last year they had a couple of games where they conceded 4 goals. Louth were hapless the last day and that was the only game between the league and championship 9 games in total where Tipp didnt concede a goal. The concession of goals looks to be a significant issue for Tipp

As against that Tyrone's attack is definitely nothing to be all that afraid of - 1-10 against Donegal, 1-14 against Limerick and 1-10 against Meath in the championship isn't exactly scary stuff They only scored 3-76 in the league (a total of 85 points) of an average of 12 points a game.

Tyrone are a side who look very battle-hardened and experienced to me in comparison to Tipp but Tipp have some very decent forwards who are well capable of taking a score.

Maybe back Tipp to win but arbitrage some of the risk by backing Tyrone to score 1 or more goals maybe? If Tipp don't concede a goal I'd give them a great chance of winning. If they concede 1 their chances drop a fair bit and if they concede 2 or more it's hard to see them getting a result. Not exactly startling but I think goals in this game will be even more vital than normal.

That's a magnificent analysis. Didn't realize Tipp defense were so prone to leaking goals. They have flair and can kick points from distance. Still undecided whether they're worth a punt at 7/4.
Thanks