GAA Betting

laoisman11

Throwing these up now as I mightn't get the chance later......

The prediction model is going for the following in the All-Ireland semis:

• Dublin by 2.7 (PP have a spread of 2)
• Kerry by 0.6 (PP have 4)

Going with Tyrone to beat the spread here.

Mountainlad

Galway ht/Tipp ft 5/1 (ladbrokes)

Tipp have to contend with the 5 week break for the first time since 2012. The only time Tipp have had no difficulty with it was v Limerick in 2009, which was a case of a sharp focus after 2008 and a Limerick team that had struggled to beat Laois in opposition.

Even Kilkenny don't produce their best a t semi final stage having won Leinster in my opinion and if you look at the record of Munster winning sides outside of that they've found it difficult too. I think it's likely to have an impact early, and Galway have a height advantage as well as a few forwards with an eye for goal.


I reckon Tipp will have enough in the end. Seems like the value bet of the game looking at the markets where the bookies aren't giving much away in my opinion.

Same As

Barring a barnstorming performance from Cathal Mannion tomorrow, 5/4 for Austin Gleeson to be Young Hurler of the year is a max bet for me. Smashing season despite exiting last weekend, any thoughts?

Rasputin11

Bonner Maher over 1.5 points 5/6 with Boyles, PP has it priced at 8/13, Betfair 4/6.

Deise_2012

Same As wrote: »

Barring a barnstorming performance from Cathal Mannion tomorrow, 5/4 for Austin Gleeson to be Young Hurler of the year is a max bet for me. Smashing season despite exiting last weekend, any thoughts?

Tadhg Bourke has had a better season than Gleeson, but Gleeson has a better reputation

Same As

Deise_2012 wrote: »

Tadhg Bourke has had a better season than Gleeson, but Gleeson has a better reputation

Definitely agreed De Burca had a great season also. Reckon Gleesons reputation would squeeze it if it were a two horse race though.

Mountainlad

Had a bet on Tadhg Bourke at 5/1 with Ladbrokes for it. Gleeson has the reputation but so does Bourke, and I watched the Munster Final back today and he was outstanding. Scored a super point against Cork too lest we forget.

To put it in context, Ronan Maher is 6/1 for it and he hasn't pucked a ball compared to him. Definitely the value.

If Mannion plays well tomorrow it will be hard to ignore 3-3 against Dublin and 0-7 points v Cork. But if he's quiet and Galway lose I reckon that given Waterford win the league one of the two get it.

Bourke has been better than Gleeson this year in my opinion and Gleeson has another year at u21 as well, so worth chancing at the price in my opinion. What could complicate it more is the all star selection as they might accommodate one of the two there and give the other ypoty.

RIALTO1

Decent spread on the total points in the Kil Gal minor game. U/o 37.5 with Boils, u/o 40.5 with Powers. Nice dry sunny day, going to take the overs with Boils

ft9

Galway 9/5 at half time 1pt up Stan James

Loafing Oaf

Ladbrokes correct score in goals market for Dublin-Mayo looks interesting. 20-1 and 18-1 for respective 3-2s might tempt me...

Gary Gurny

Mountainlad wrote: »

Had a bet on Tadhg Bourke at 5/1 with Ladbrokes for it. Gleeson has the reputation but so does Bourke, and I watched the Munster Final back today and he was outstanding. Scored a super point against Cork too lest we forget.

To put it in context, Ronan Maher is 6/1 for it and he hasn't pucked a ball compared to him. Definitely the value.

If Mannion plays well tomorrow it will be hard to ignore 3-3 against Dublin and 0-7 points v Cork. But if he's quiet and Galway lose I reckon that given Waterford win the league one of the two get it.

Bourke has been better than Gleeson this year in my opinion and Gleeson has another year at u21 as well, so worth chancing at the price in my opinion. What could complicate it more is the all star selection as they might accommodate one of the two there and give the other ypoty.

Would have to be Mannion after today

ShamoBuc

ShamoBuc wrote: »

4 interest bets for me ....?

Kk to score a pen 5/1
Kk to miss a pen 12/1
Galway to score a pen 6/1
Galway to miss a pen 12/1

I remember doing this bet earlier in the year, pity I didn't do it today.

Does anyone know if a Tip to miss a pen would have won - as it was saved, but went over the bar for a point?

Rasputin11

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I remember doing this bet earlier in the year, pity I didn't do it today.

Does anyone know if a Tip to miss a pen would have won - as it was saved, but went over the bar for a point?

Presume it would have won but the bookies can be sly at times.

Mountainlad

I backed a penalty to be scored in the match, raging. Some expensive game, Mannion cert for young hurler of the year and Tipp losing.

Dots1982

Kerry to score first goal vs Tyrone at 8/11 with PP seems decent to me..

paul08

Daithi Burke 6/1 for an All Star. Thought he was excellent yesterday and is having a good year overall. Overpriced.

Padraig Mannion out to 12s now. Im on the fence on this one but think there is some value there. Im fully aware that the lad got the roasting of a lifetime yesterday. However prior to that he was having an excellent year and was Galway's best back. A good game in the final and the narrative will all be about how good of a player he is to come back from what happened in the semi. A lot of All Star selection will depend on who wins the final. Hopefully Galway

Mountainlad

paul08 wrote: »

Daithi Burke 6/1 for an All Star. Thought he was excellent yesterday and is having a good year overall. Overpriced.

Padraig Mannion out to 12s now. Im on the fence on this one but think there is some value there. Im fully aware that the lad got the roasting of a lifetime yesterday. However prior to that he was having an excellent year and was Galway's best back. A good game in the final and the narrative will all be about how good of a player he is to come back from what happened in the semi. A lot of All Star selection will depend on who wins the final. Hopefully Galway

Padraig Mannion hasn't a hope after yesterday.

robbiezero

paul08 wrote: »

Daithi Burke 6/1 for an All Star. Thought he was excellent yesterday and is having a good year overall. Overpriced.

Padraig Mannion out to 12s now. Im on the fence on this one but think there is some value there. Im fully aware that the lad got the roasting of a lifetime yesterday. However prior to that he was having an excellent year and was Galway's best back. A good game in the final and the narrative will all be about how good of a player he is to come back from what happened in the semi. A lot of All Star selection will depend on who wins the final. Hopefully Galway

If he gets an All-Star they might as well abandon them altogether. I can't remember seeing a bigger roasting in Croke Park. Wouldn't back him at 500/1.
Daithi Burke at 6/1 looks value alright. Bar he has a very bad final. Buckley, De Burca and himself for half back line at the moment I think.

Deise_2012

For the midfield selection in the All Star betting, they've Kevin Moran at 4/6, Michael Fennelly 4/5, Andy Smith, 11/4 and Conor Fogarty 3/1. Fogarty looks real value to me, I thought he played better than Fennelly v Waterford and of course Fennelly missed the Leinster final..

But probably if Austin Gleeson doesn't get into the half back line, they could well put him into midfield so then they'll only choose one of the above

FatRat

What happens if you back a player to win an all-star, but he wins it in a different position to what you bet on. For example, Paul Murphy for Kerry is 10/11 to win an all star in the full back line but if he gets one, it'll be an all-star for the half back line because that's where he plays.

Would they pay out if he gets on in the half back line? Note that I'm not planning on betting on him specifically as I don't think he has much of a chance for a half-back all-star, I'm just using him as an example.

Mountainlad

FatRat wrote: »

What happens if you back a player to win an all-star, but he wins it in a different position to what you bet on. For example, Paul Murphy for Kerry is 10/11 to win an all star in the full back line but if he gets one, it'll be an all-star for the half back line because that's where he plays.

Would they pay out if he gets on in the half back line? Note that I'm not planning on betting on him specifically as I don't think he has much of a chance for a half-back all-star, I'm just using him as an example.

If he gets an all star, you win the bet.

paul08

paul08 wrote: »

Daithi Burke 6/1 for an All Star. Thought he was excellent yesterday and is having a good year overall. Overpriced.

Padraig Mannion out to 12s now. Im on the fence on this one but think there is some value there. Im fully aware that the lad got the roasting of a lifetime yesterday. However prior to that he was having an excellent year and was Galway's best back. A good game in the final and the narrative will all be about how good of a player he is to come back from what happened in the semi. A lot of All Star selection will depend on who wins the final. Hopefully Galway

That 6/1 is now gone. 13/8 now and had meant to back it today. Highly ****ing disgusted with myself.
On an aside the 12/1 on mannion has now gone into 8s. Someone somewhere must have shared my lunacy!

skippymac6

paul08 wrote: »

That 6/1 is now gone. 13/8 now and had meant to back it today. Highly ****ing disgusted with myself.
On an aside the 12/1 on mannion has now gone into 8s. Someone somewhere must have shared my lunacy!

Those markets move very quickly with even the smallest amount of cash. I remember Ian Madigan went from 5/1 to 1/7 on with paddypower to make the lions the day before and it was something like €100 that influenced that!

Same As

Does anyone think the Galway minors are a bet in the hurling final v Tipp? 2/1 seems big, quite a few of the Tipp minors line out for their footballers in the semi final the week before. Was quite impressed with Galway in the two games vs Kilkenny too...

Rasputin11

Same As wrote: »

Does anyone think the Galway minors are a bet in the hurling final v Tipp? 2/1 seems big, quite a few of the Tipp minors line out for their footballers in the semi final the week before. Was quite impressed with Galway in the two games vs Kilkenny too...

As a Tipp man I would feel that's a very good price, Tipp have a good committed bunch of lads on the team but it's not a great minor side by any means. I'm genuinely surprised by that price.

keane2097

Same As wrote: »

Does anyone think the Galway minors are a bet in the hurling final v Tipp? 2/1 seems big, quite a few of the Tipp minors line out for their footballers in the semi final the week before. Was quite impressed with Galway in the two games vs Kilkenny too...

I thought the quality in the Tipp Dublin game was way higher for what it's worth

Junior D

I never bet on minors as a rule. Minors are so unpredictable, a lot of times it really just depends on the day. Look at KK last year hammered by Dublin in the first round of Leinster in Nowlan Park and then going on to win the All-Ireland, easily beating Dublin in a rematch.

Having said that 2/1 is a decent price IMO. The way Galway fought back in both games is a sign of a mentally tough team, more important than skill at this level I think

Hesh's Umpire

Anyone got anything decent in the club scene. In Laois I'm going to plug a couple of certs to go into accumulators.
Crettyard are 1/2 to beat Ballyfin. Now, Crettyard are no great shakes but Ballyfin will have three suspended including their main man James Finn. I think 1/2 isn't short enough.
The Heath are 8/13 to beat Ballyroan Abbey. The Heath hammered BA last year, albeit in a replay, and the only team that's improved since then is The Heath. They have Daithi Carroll back from abroad while BA have lost Scott Conroy to London. Nailed on for me.

Hesh's Umpire

Hesh's Umpire wrote: »

Anyone got anything decent in the club scene. In Laois I'm going to plug a couple of certs to go into accumulators.
Crettyard are 1/2 to beat Ballyfin. Now, Crettyard are no great shakes but Ballyfin will have three suspended including their main man James Finn. I think 1/2 isn't short enough.
The Heath are 8/13 to beat Ballyroan Abbey. The Heath hammered BA last year, albeit in a replay, and the only team that's improved since then is The Heath. They have Daithi Carroll back from abroad while BA have lost Scott Conroy to London. Nailed on for me.

Sorry, should have said prices are with PP.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

skippymac6 wrote: »

Those markets move very quickly with even the smallest amount of cash. I remember Ian Madigan went from 5/1 to 1/7 on with paddypower to make the lions the day before and it was something like €100 that influenced that!

I'm afraid your sources are incorrect there Skippy