GAA Betting

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

I think the draw is a good bet in this game, gonna have a cut at it over the weekend. Two teams look really well matched on paper for me, shouldn't be anything in it and I am expecting a really good game.

Got the really good game part wrong but at 10/1 happy days on the draw!

Sir montygom

Sir montygom wrote: »

i can't see the mayo boys causing an upset this weekend.....i don't see the killer instinct in them that will be needed to overcome the dubs.....i watched the mayo v donegal match again last night to try persuade myself not to back dublin (too heavy).......it has not worked..... mayo's fluke goal after half time all but secured the result but they still managed to allow donegal chances to get back into the match.....they still dropped balls short into the Donegal's
keepers hands and not able to put the killer points over when they needed them.....they managed to run down the clock and secure a victory but im not sold on them. I still think they are still mentally brittle and if the o sheas don't rule the roost on sunday i say they could crumble.......i think jim gavin will have a plan in place to nullify the o sheas influence and the dublin forwards will get enough scores on the board to see them over the line .......an early dublin goal could really put cat among the pigeons......im not afraid of dublin -4@15/8
....if the day is fine i think ill go for over 38.5pts as semi cover bet....if mayo are to have a chance i think they'll need to score 20 plus points.....if dublin hit top gear they could score 30plus on there own (if mayo crumble early enough) and subs are sprung from bench that will want to impress for final

with 10 mins left i was kicking myself that i did not take -6 and -7 on....i did dubs ht/ft as well as -4........i am still in shock with that result.......i am still not convinced that mayo are able to get over the line when it matters and that this mayo team is worthy of an all ireland.....i would think today was their chance as dubs let them out of jail and away with an embarrassing defeat......dublin showed the mental brittleness that donegal exposed last year and lacked that killer instinct and cuteness needed to kill off a game...

i would fancy dublin more on saturday next after watching that performance ....i think there is a lot better to come from that dublin team an more of the same from mayo.....wides,wides ,wides and dropping short in goalies hands..

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Sir montygom wrote: »

with 10 mins left i was kicking myself that i did not take -6 and -7 on....i did dubs ht/ft as well as -4........i am still in shock with that result.......i am still not convinced that mayo are able to get over the line when it matters and that this mayo team is worthy of an all ireland.....i would think today was their chance as dubs let them out of jail and away with an embarrassing defeat......dublin showed the mental brittleness that donegal exposed last year and lacked that killer instinct and cuteness needed to kill off a game...

i would fancy dublin more on saturday next after watching that performance ....i think there is a lot better to come from that dublin team an more of the same from mayo.....wides,wides ,wides and dropping short in goalies hands..

Personally I think the opposite. Mayo played horribly and got away with a draw, they come into next weeks game with a chance to right a terrible performance and Dublin will be without their best player.

That in and of itself should make Mayo favourites in my opinion. They wont be though and therefore will be the value bet in the game IMO.

Slattsy

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Personally I think the opposite. Mayo played horribly and got away with a draw, they come into next weeks game with a chance to right a terrible performance and Dublin will be without their best player.

That in and of itself should make Mayo favourites in my opinion. They wont be though and therefore will be the value bet in the game IMO.

Spot on. All the momentum with Mayo. Hope im wrong though.

keysersoze0330

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Personally I think the opposite. Mayo played horribly and got away with a draw, they come into next weeks game with a chance to right a terrible performance and Dublin will be without their best player.

That in and of itself should make Mayo favourites in my opinion. They wont be though and therefore will be the value bet in the game IMO.

Agree with this. Dublin should have been out of sight. Mayo were brutal, won't be as bad this time.

laoisman11

Prediction model output:

Dublin by 2.3 (PP have spread of 1).

Not for the taking.......

Same As

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Personally I think the opposite. Mayo played horribly and got away with a draw, they come into next weeks game with a chance to right a terrible performance and Dublin will be without their best player.

I'd seriously question whether or not the Connolly suspension will be withheld to be honest given the precedent out there...

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Does anyone think the Galway minors are a bet in the hurling final v Tipp? 2/1 seems big, quite a few of the Tipp minors line out for their footballers in the semi final the week before. Was quite impressed with Galway in the two games vs Kilkenny too...

Tipp Minor Footballers qualified for the final beating Kildare yesterday. 8 of those players (all played yesterday) are part of their hurling panel next weekend, while they could be a special bunch, I've taken the 2/1 available about Galway to topple them next Sunday.

Hulk Hands

That replay market is only going in one direction i'd say, much closer to pickem. I'll hold off until the day, if odds against Dublin is available i'll take it. Mayo backers should wade in now, bookies that are currently 6/4 on Mayo arent ones to take opinions anyway so it won't last

Sir montygom

keysersoze0330 wrote: »

Agree with this. Dublin should have been out of sight. Mayo were brutal, won't be as bad this time.

dublin should have been out of sight and they really did not get going bar a ten minute spell in the second half.......mayo can't be as bad the next day but i still can't see where they will get the scores from ......i can't see dublin giving away that amount of frees again.......connolly will be a big loss but macmanamon and alan brogan are nice to be able to introduce to a team.......that battle yesterday will have done dublin the world of good .......mayo showed great heart and determination but that stuff will only get you so far ......dublin for me again !!!

ianburke

great end to a brutal game. think mayo will be on a high that they are still in it. expect them to have learned the most from this. dubs must be still shook. cluxton looked a broken man.

think mayo will need to start with barry moran he was terrific when he came on. also andy moran if he has the legs. big problems for mayo putting the ball over the bar though. had they got level early in the second half i think they would have pushed on and won comfortably. dublin must be kicking themselves that they have to play another game 6 days later. i will be highly impressed if they can recover from this and still reach the final. cant wait for the replay hopefully ref sorts the messing early and we get to see more football and less rugby!

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Same As wrote: »

I'd seriously question whether or not the Connolly suspension will be withheld to be honest given the precedent out there...

If it gets overturned then it's time for the GAA to do away with the bans because they obviously are pointless. The fact that it is a closed fist punching while a player is on the ground I just think they will get it very hard to over turn that.

Dublin will plead that he was provoked but even at that surely the GAA cant say "well it's ok to punch someone in the head if you're provoked"

I will be surprised if they do do something with McMahon's headbutt or the Cillian O'Connor/Rory O'Carroll incident but I just think if they overturn Connolly's red then they should throw out the bans altogether.

Same As

I really like the 13/8 on offer on Dublin to score over 1.5 goals on Saturday. I'll be keeping a close eye on the outcome of the Connolly appeal, but will be on this regardless I would say.

ianburke

Same As wrote: »

I really like the 13/8 on offer on Dublin to score over 1.5 goals on Saturday. I'll be keeping a close eye on the outcome of the Connolly appeal, but will be on this regardless I would say.

great price. even over 1.5 at about evens last week was good value. mayo always concede at least 2 silly goals in the big games and last weekend was no different. 13/8 seems huge.

Same As

ianburke wrote: »

great price. even over 1.5 at about evens last week was good value. mayo always concede at least 2 silly goals in the big games and last weekend was no different. 13/8 seems huge.

Did the over 2.5 goals in the match at evens last weekend as I couldn't call the outcome of the game.

If the Dubs are to win, they'll go balls to the wall for goals I feel. I'll probably have some of that 13/8 now, and wait til later in the week to decide on more or not.

boom92

Does anyone know if there is any value in backing Cratloe this weekend in the Clare county championship? I know Podge Collins is missing but they were impressive last year and 13/10 seems like a big price for defending county champions.

CheltenhamJ

Boom I had it the odds a little tighter but would fancy SMB to win and think they will have too much for cratloe. Game will be tight but in short I see no real value in backing cratloe. Fancy crusheen , SMB , clonlara and ballyea to win respective matches

Warper

Dublin should have won last weekend. They were miles on top in the first half and Mayo only played for 7-8 mins.

Dublin have been hailed as the best team by far the past few years so surely they can cope with Mayo. Ht-Ft @ 21-10 Boyles

robbiezero

Warper wrote: »

Dublin should have won last weekend. They were miles on top in the first half and Mayo only played for 7-8 mins.

Dublin have been hailed as the best team by far the past few years so surely they can cope with Mayo. Ht-Ft @ 21-10 Boyles

By who?

Regarding the game, its hard to call. Connolly a big loss if he is out, not just for his own threat, but it now frees up Lee Keegan a bit more to go on the rampage. If the game is defensive like last week, Dublin will win it with their better scoring power. Mayo though cannot play this game, they will not get away with it two weeks in a row, they must run at them in numbers and from deep and push up on the kick outs like the did last week.
Dublin the better forwards, Mayo the better attacking backs and ball-winning midfield. Mayo have Higgins, Keegan and Boyle to run at Dublin from deep, Dublin really just use McCaffrey in that role.

Rasputin11

Wexford 21s out to 5/2, did they suffer an injury blow? That looks a generous price.

CurryFlavoured

Warper wrote: »

Dublin should have won last weekend. They were miles on top in the first half and Mayo only played for 7-8 mins.

Dublin have been hailed as the best team by far the past few years so surely they can cope with Mayo. Ht-Ft @ 21-10 Boyles

And Dublin only played for 5 minutes of the 2nd half, the rest they were completely handled by Mayo. First half was slop. It'll be another tight one.

Hulk Hands

robbiezero wrote: »

By who?

They easily have been in fairness. They've won 2 of the last 4 All Irelands, and the last 3 national leagues. No other side comes close to that. At their best I think they've played to the highest standard ive ever seen if i'm being honest

robbiezero

Hulk Hands wrote: »

They easily have been in fairness. They've won 2 of the last 4 All Irelands, and the last 3 national leagues. No other side comes close to that. At their best I think they've played to the highest standard ive ever seen if i'm being honest

They have been the best side. I would certainly not agree that its by far though.
Its not near the Kilkenny 2006-2009 levels of dominance.

Warper

robbiezero wrote: »

By who?

Regarding the game, its hard to call. Connolly a big loss if he is out, not just for his own threat, but it now frees up Lee Keegan a bit more to go on the rampage. If the game is defensive like last week, Dublin will win it with their better scoring power. Mayo though cannot play this game, they will not get away with it two weeks in a row, they must run at them in numbers and from deep and push up on the kick outs like the did last week.
Dublin the better forwards, Mayo the better attacking backs and ball-winning midfield. Mayo have Higgins, Keegan and Boyle to run at Dublin from deep, Dublin really just use McCaffrey in that role.

90% of pundits at the start of the year were tipping Dublin for the AI. Practically 0% predicted Mayo. They were barely odds against all year for this years AI and last years for that matter hence they were 50% winners vs the field so according to the bookies were every bit as strong as KK in their prime so lets not kid ourselves here. Im shocked that the line has shifted so much in a week. Dublin are practically evens to beat Mayo this weekend and over 2-1 ht-ft. Im on the ht-ft market and Dubs -4 pts @ 16-5. Mayo had their chance last weekend and blew it again. FWIW i was on Mayo last weekend ht-ft for value as i had posted but i saw enough of Dublin's dominance to indicate that they should win this weekend if they cop themselves on.

ianburke

if they can't beat mayo with a 7pt lead heading into the final stages what chance have they saturday? the bookies hardly shifted the odds much did they? 4/7 becomes 4/5 hardly a big shift. they were hardly going to shorten the dubs after that pathetic display?

if connollys ban is overturned ill be having a few quid on the dubs as they can put the ball over the bar whereas mayo cant. if hes still banned then its a no bet and ill enjoy a second day out in under a week.

FatRat

I think Dublin have drifted way too much. I'll be backing them just because they are now good value. The thing is this is the first time I've seen Dublin as good value all year. Odds previously were pathetic enough, especially odds on to win the AI outright. They're 9/4 now.

Also, 10/11 is a huge difference to 4/7.

ianburke

because they were shown to be no better than mayo and are now missing their best player...hows that hard to believe? if hes unbanned without doubt they will shorten but the odds cannot be the same as they were last week. no chance

robbiezero

ianburke wrote: »

because they were shown to be no better than mayo and are now missing their best player...hows that hard to believe? if hes unbanned without doubt they will shorten but the odds cannot be the same as they were last week. no chance

His appeal has been rejected tonight.

ianburke

robbiezero wrote: »

His appeal has been rejected tonight.

wow. huge blow. all 3 sky pundits expected appeal to succeed. wont be touching this game now. is it just a one game ban? surely he wont miss the final if they make it?

oneils23

Definitely have a few quid on Mayo now