GAA Betting

armaghlad

Boom__Boom wrote: »

St Mary's 2-20 Rathoath 1-5
Templenoe 1-9 Curraha 0-5

St Mary's roll over Rathoath - sounds like Rathoath never got going from what reports I've seen/what I saw on Twitter and it turned into a bit of a turkey-shoot. Curraha kept it a bit closer against Templenoe.

I'd say both will be close enough to unbackable in the finals. I can see Croke Park in particular suiting Templenoe a bit more than Kilmallock- they're a young fast team who will move the ball well in the open spaces and the firmer sod.

I'd agree with the above but it was interesting to find out that the Mayo intermediate finalists finished second in Division 1 to none other than Castlebar Mitchel's.. not really intermediate teams competing this year..

Boom__Boom

armaghlad wrote: »

I'd agree with the above but it was interesting to find out that the Mayo intermediate finalists finished second in Division 1 to none other than Castlebar Mitchel's.. not really intermediate teams competing this year..

I'd say that has more to do with the fact that Mayo is a county where the league isn't really taken all that seriously.

armaghlad

Boom__Boom wrote: »

I'd say that has more to do with the fact that Mayo is a county where the league isn't really taken all that seriously.

Yeah I find that odd. In ulster you have clubs like Crossmaglen, St Gall's, Naomh Conaill and Clonoe who finished second in their respective leagues. The thought of any of them playing Intermediate football is rather bizarre.

Dots1982

Any word for the sigerson games today?

Be interested if anyone knows if Sligo IT are any good?

Think Carlow IT could score heavily and are at home at 11/8.

Sligo had the mchughs last year but don't see any "names" on their team this year..

EOB32

Wouldn't know much about Sligo IT but Carlow IT shipped a few heavy beatings in the O'Byrne Cup. Think NUIG should win fairly handy but not much value on the price. Anybody any tips for the other matches? Bit of inside info goes a long way in the college competitions!

Dots1982

EOB32 wrote: »

Wouldn't know much about Sligo IT but Carlow IT shipped a few heavy beatings in the O'Byrne Cup. Think NUIG should win fairly handy but not much value on the price. Anybody any tips for the other matches? Bit of inside info goes a long way in the college competitions!

yeah sligo are probably likely to have young talent from mayo, galway and the rossies.

Connacht's young players are way ahead of Leinster's young talent so probably sligo IT are rightly favourites.

Carlow IT have a dangerous full forward line though, that i know.

armaghlad

EOB32 wrote: »

Wouldn't know much about Sligo IT but Carlow IT shipped a few heavy beatings in the O'Byrne Cup. Think NUIG should win fairly handy but not much value on the price. Anybody any tips for the other matches? Bit of inside info goes a long way in the college competitions!

I fancy QUB to overcome Maynooth, even though I think they're the weakest of the northern sides this year.

UUJ have a serious side and speaking to one of their county men he was talking up St Mary's, I think those two may meet each other if St Mary's win their first game.

Boom__Boom

Kerry will be missing the following 11 players for the league game this Saturday against Dublin

Aidan O'Mahony
Tomas O'Se
Colm Cooper
James O'Donoghue
Paul Geaney
Mikey Geaney
Anthony Maher
Kieran O'Leary
Kieran Donaghy
Jack Sherwood
Bryan Sheehan

Throw in the fact that Dublin are at home and will be desperate to bounce back from the Longford result I think 1/2 represents value.

robbiezero

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Kerry will be missing the following 11 players for the league game this Saturday against Dublin

Aidan O'Mahony
Tomas O'Se
Colm Cooper
James O'Donoghue
Paul Geaney
Mikey Geaney
Anthony Maher
Kieran O'Leary
Kieran Donaghy
Jack Sherwood
Bryan Sheehan

Throw in the fact that Dublin are at home and will be desperate to bounce back from the Longford result I think 1/2 represents value.

Tomas O'Se is retired.

Boom__Boom

Templenoe 1/3 v Ardnaree 11/4 Draw 8/1

St Marys 4/11 v Hollymount-Carramore 11/4 Draw 15/2

Even at 1/3 Templenoe might still represent a bit of value - Was just looking at Ardnaree's route to the final - the Mayo championship looked very weak, they got a bye to the Connacht final, and they weren't too impressive against a Rockcorry side who had 2 men red-carded early in the 2nd half.

Boom__Boom

robbiezero wrote: »

Tomas O'Se is retired.

It's Marc - I copied and pasted it from elsewhere and didn't pick up on it

robbiezero

Boom__Boom wrote: »

It's Marc - I copied and pasted it from elsewhere and didn't pick up on it

Ah fair enough. Looks a bit of value alright although Dublin might be a bit behind them training-wise at this stage. A handicap of 1 or 2 points would certainly be tempting in favour of Dublin.

Edit - Dublin minus 2 is 11/10

Boom__Boom

robbiezero wrote: »

Ah fair enough. Looks a bit of value alright although Dublin might be a bit behind them training-wise at this stage. A handicap of 1 or 2 points would certainly be tempting in favour of Dublin.

I'd say Kerry havent a whole pile done yet either - are only back from the team holiday to Miami 3 weeks next Sunday and have looked fairly rusty in the McGrath cup game against Tipp - in the first game McGrath Cup game against Clare, Clare won playing a Kerry selection that was very experimental (a couple of lads on the subs bench could only be described as ordinary enough club players)

laoisman11

During last year’s football championship, I posted predictions on the outcomes of games that I obtained from a prediction model constructed from results of prior games. Effectively, I was looking for instances where the prediction model gave an output approximately 3 points different to where PP was setting the spread.

Just to give a quick recap on the accuracy of the outcomes, the prediction model was correct in 10 out of 13 cases identified, which is not bad but it has to be said that I am only at the start of testing this, so things could get worse with time !

I took a quick look into the cases which the prediction model picked up on, and it appeared that the model was much better at correctly predicting where PP had the spread too low (5/5 games) than at correctly predicting where PP had the spread too high (5/8 games). However, this is only based on results from last summer - I have no info on spreads of historic games for the moment, but I hope to add to this over the coming months/years.

Some posters commented on the fact that the prediction model threw up very few differences from PP’s spreads (13 out of 62 games, 21%), but I had noticed that it picked up more instances of differences towards the end of last year’s league. So this may allow for more opportunities to bet (if that’s your thing!) although I’m not sure how that will affect quality of outcomes.

So, my betting strategy is: Difference of more than 3 points from spread = betting opportunity. I’m intentionally not considering all games involving the 4 teams who played in the All-Ireland semis for the first 2 round of the league (Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Tyrone) and as the NFL draws to a close, I will not consider games where one or both teams have nothing to play for (i.e. already promoted, already relegated, or mid-table with no possibility of promotion/no risk of relegation).

Prediction model output for NFL Rd 1 (PP spread values are for away team):

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Down | Donegal |

-2.8

| -1
Dublin | Kerry |

2.6

| 2
Cork | Mayo |

-1.2

| 2
Roscommon | Monaghan |

-2.9

| -1
Derry | Fermanagh |

3.7

| 3
Meath | Armagh |

2.8

| 1
Tyrone | Cavan |

5.0

| 3
Laois | Galway |

-2.7

| -1
Clare | Sligo |

-1.0

| 2
Limerick | Tipperary |

-1.5

| -1
Offaly | Longford |

1.5

| -1
Westmeath | Kildare |

-3.2

| -1
Louth | London |

9.6

| 7
Carlow | Antrim |

-4.3

| -2
Wexford | Leitrim |

3.5

| 3
Wicklow | Waterford |

3.9

| 2

Surprinsingly (for me at least!) the model only picked up on 2 differences to what is currently offered by PP...........and as one of those involves a team involved in the latter stages of the championship (Cork-Mayo), the only game that I will go for here is Sligo to beat the handicap against Clare.

keane2097

@laoisman - send me your email address and I can send you on a spreadsheet with results from 06-11

80s Child

Laoisman: Fair play. A solid bit of application.

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

@laoisman - send me your email address and I can send you on a spreadsheet with results from 06-11

The model is built on all results dating from 1940, it's what spread the bookies were offering is what I am after - this would help to strengthen the model.

keane2097

laoisman11 wrote: »

The model is built on all results dating from 1940, it's what spread the bookies were offering is what I am after - this would help to strengthen the model.

Ah I see, sorry. If you ask @dontfoul on Twitter he has been collecting that data lately. Not sure what years he has pulled in so far but he might be able to help.

keane2097

Just to clarify Laoisman, your table above seems to be giving all HCs in terms of the away team - is that correct?

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

Just to clarify Laoisman, your table above seems to be giving all HCs in terms of the away team - is that correct?

Correct and thanks - I was looking for a way to explain the difference and you hit the nail on the head there.

Hammer Archer

Think St. Mary's -3 at 11/10 in the IFC final is a great bet.

Was at the game on Sunday and thought we had a half decent chance. But sweet jesus Mary's are an astonishingly good team. I know Leinster teams never do well in the All Ireland IFC but I thought given that we waltzed through both Meath and Leinster we'd be able to put it up to anyone. How wrong I was. Ratoath didn't show up admittedly, but if we did I'd say we'd still be lucky to have kept within two scores of St. Mary's.

I don't know much about Hollymount only they scraped past the Leitrim and Galway champions in Connacht. It would take some team to beat Mary's as long as they turn up for the final.

Boom__Boom

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Kerry will be missing the following 11 players for the league game this Saturday against Dublin

Aidan O'Mahony
Marc O'Se
Colm Cooper
James O'Donoghue
Paul Geaney
Mikey Geaney
Anthony Maher
Kieran O'Leary
Kieran Donaghy
Jack Sherwood
Bryan Sheehan

Throw in the fact that Dublin are at home and will be desperate to bounce back from the Longford result I think 1/2 represents value.

Kerry team and subs

1. Brendan Kealy Kilcummin
2. Brian Ó Beaglaoich A Ghaeltacht
3. Mark Griffin St Michaels/Foilmore
4. Shane Enright Tarbert
5. Paul Murphy Rathmore
6. Killian Young (C) Renard
7. Fionn Fitzgerald Dr Crokes
8. David Moran Kerins O’Rahillys
9. Johnny Buckley Dr Crokes
10. Stephen O’Brien Kenmare
11. Darran O’Sullivan Glenbeigh-Glencar
12. Donnchadh Walsh Cromane
13. Barry John Keane Kerins O’Rahillys
14. Tommy Walsh Kerins O’Rahillys
15. Philip O’Connor Cordal
Fir Ionaid:
16. Brian Kelly Killarney Legion
17. Jonathan Lyne Killarney Legion
18. Padraig O’Connor Killarney Legion
19. Pa Kilkenny Glenbeigh/Glencar
20. Brendan O’Sullivan Valentia
21. Jamie O’Sullivan Killarney Legion
22. Gavin O’Grady Glenbeigh-Glencar
23. Paul O’Sullivan Valentia
24. Marcus Mangan Milltown-Castlemaine
25. Tom O’Sullivan Dingle
26. Conor Cox Listowel Emmets

2 lads making their debut in the first 15 (which is reasonable enough) However the bench is very inexperienced with 6 lads who have never played a minute of league or championship.
The number on the missing list is 12 as Peter Crowley is still recovering from an operation as well.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Kerry team and subs

1. Brendan Kealy Kilcummin
2. Brian Ó Beaglaoich A Ghaeltacht
3. Mark Griffin St Michaels/Foilmore
4. Shane Enright Tarbert
5. Paul Murphy Rathmore
6. Killian Young (C) Renard
7. Fionn Fitzgerald Dr Crokes
8. David Moran Kerins O’Rahillys
9. Johnny Buckley Dr Crokes
10. Stephen O’Brien Kenmare
11. Darran O’Sullivan Glenbeigh-Glencar
12. Donnchadh Walsh Cromane
13. Barry John Keane Kerins O’Rahillys
14. Tommy Walsh Kerins O’Rahillys
15. Philip O’Connor Cordal
Fir Ionaid:
16. Brian Kelly Killarney Legion
17. Jonathan Lyne Killarney Legion
18. Padraig O’Connor Killarney Legion
19. Pa Kilkenny Glenbeigh/Glencar
20. Brendan O’Sullivan Valentia
21. Jamie O’Sullivan Killarney Legion
22. Gavin O’Grady Glenbeigh-Glencar
23. Paul O’Sullivan Valentia
24. Marcus Mangan Milltown-Castlemaine
25. Tom O’Sullivan Dingle
26. Conor Cox Listowel Emmets

2 lads making their debut in the first 15 (which is reasonable enough) However the bench is very inexperienced with 6 lads who have never played a minute of league or championship.
The number on the missing list is 12 as Peter Crowley is still recovering from an operation as well.

Nice forward line there though even with 12 missing

Wexford96

Wexford at home to beat Leitrim (4/9) and Wicklow at home to beat Waterford (4/7) is a tempting double.
I'm going only on reputation of all 4 teams here, and have no info from inside any camp. Does anyone feel one of the above might not work out?
Thanks.

Wexford96

Wexford at home to beat Leitrim (4/9) and Wicklow at home to beat Waterford (4/7) is a tempting double.
I'm going only on reputation of all 4 teams here, and have no info from inside any camp. Does anyone feel one of the above might not work out?
Thanks.

keane2097

The 4/9 looks decent, wouldn't see much edge in the 4/7 personally.

sonnky

Longford 11/10 with Paddypower to beat Offaly. Got to the O Byrne Cup Final and bet Dublin. Beat Offaly in the championship last year too.

kerosene

I think wexford 4/9, tyrone 2/5 is a good value double.

kerosene

I think wexford 4/9, tyrone 2/5 is a good value double.

wonga77

Early days in the league so I wouldnt be risking too much, I do think the Dubs will have too much for Kerry though, should cover the handicap too im thinking