GAA Betting

keane2097

ahlookit wrote: »

Sligo were without Kelly, Breheny and Marren last week - three of their better scoring forwards. From what Eamon O'Hara was saying on the RTE radio it sounds like they could be missing them for a while. Would account for their low score against Clare, and a difference of 2.6 might be enough (with rounding!) to go for Westmeath?

As far as I know that's only a difference of 1.4 - he's saying the model makes WH 0.6pt dogs, while PP make them 2.0pt favourites.

laoisman11

ahlookit wrote: »

Sligo were without Kelly, Breheny and Marren last week - three of their better scoring forwards. From what Eamon O'Hara was saying on the RTE radio it sounds like they could be missing them for a while. Would account for their low score against Clare, and a difference of 2.6 might be enough (with rounding!) to go for Westmeath?

Exactly as Keane said, the model is predicting Sligo to win by 0.6, while PP have Westmeath to win by 2. So a difference of 2.6 which is below my cut-off point - and thankfully, as the model does not take into account injuries and I'm not getting a good feeling about Sligo's capabilities this year.

yabadabado

Sligo are supposed to be in awful shape at the moment.They got a good beating off Leitrim and Clare in the last few weeks.
I would be taking Westmeath on Sunday,they played well second half vs Kildare but were undone in the first half where they were poor while playing with a strong wind.

80s Child

Any sign of the Dublin team?

Keegan and McLoughlin are out for Mayo and there's still no sign of Cillian or Higgins. Unless the Dublin team is basically an u21 contingent, I'm going to lump Dublin -4 at 10/11. I'll probably throw in Kerry also.

The Mayo squad have done very little collective training due to the management selection and they're waiting for the break to try and get things together. That, akin to the injuries, could make it an awful hammering!!

passremarkable

dubs same team again

biffo2014

My picks for the Weekend are all in Lower divisions. More value to be got in them IMO.

Louth -1 - 10/11
Waterford are very poor. County champions reps refusing to play also. Louth aren't a great team but to good for Div 4 and will be aiming to get out of it quick! Young Byrne is a fantastic player and is worth 4/5 points to them.

Leitrim to win - 8/15 (Tempted to go with the handicap but going to play it safe)
Leitrim were unlucky against Wexford last week. They have Emlyn Muligan back and he is worth 6/7 points on form. Wicklow struggled to beat a bad Waterford team last weekend and are hit with a couple of retirements.

Wexford +1 - 11/10
Although I feel Antrim are starting to get their act together, playing away from home doesn't suit them. They had a good win over a poor Carlow team last weekend. Wexford have hit rock bottom - but not for long. I feel they will lift the Div 4 cup this year. Good quality players and even though C.Lyng isn't playing I still think they have enough to win. It will be close though hence why the handicap verdict.

Westmeath -3 - 11/10 (NAP)
Westmeath had a great championship last year but a very poor league. They played good football against Kildare last sunday but Kildare turned up the heat in the Second half and the goals Killed Westmeath. As pointed out above, Sligo are in disarray. An extremely poor Pre Season along with the loss of Key players (Especially D.Kelly) is not a good sign. They will be relegated this year.

sasta le

biffo2014 wrote: »

My picks for the Weekend are all in Lower divisions. More value to be got in them IMO.

Louth -1 - 10/11
Waterford are very poor. County champions reps refusing to play also. Louth aren't a great team but to good for Div 4 and will be aiming to get out of it quick! Young Byrne is a fantastic player and is worth 4/5 points to them.

Leitrim to win - 8/15 (Tempted to go with the handicap but going to play it safe)
Leitrim were unlucky against Wexford last week. They have Emlyn Muligan back and he is worth 6/7 points on form. Wicklow struggled to beat a bad Waterford team last weekend and are hit with a couple of retirements.

Wexford +1 - 11/10
Although I feel Antrim are starting to get their act together, playing away from home doesn't suit them. They had a good win over a poor Carlow team last weekend. Wexford have hit rock bottom - but not for long. I feel they will lift the Div 4 cup this year. Good quality players and even though C.Lyng isn't playing I still think they have enough to win. It will be close though hence why the handicap verdict.

Westmeath -3 - 11/10 (NAP)
Westmeath had a great championship last year but a very poor league. They played good football against Kildare last sunday but Kildare turned up the heat in the Second half and the goals Killed Westmeath. As pointed out above, Sligo are in disarray. An extremely poor Pre Season along with the loss of Key players (Especially D.Kelly) is not a good sign. They will be relegated this year.

Nice write up

CheltenhamJ

Particularly like Biffo selections - Louth and Westmeath dbl for me , also think outlart will run Nap very close and worth looking at on hcap

armaghlad

Thoughts on Cushendall/Sarsfields?

Can a team that was 50/1 for their own club championship really make an AI final?

I've a feeling they might get complacent... having got out of probably the toughest hurling championship in the country to get the "easy" draw of the Ulster winners...

I know Cushendall have had their eye on an AI and this is 2/3 years ago while Loughgiel were champs. Whether they have the ability to match their ambitions remains to be seen as they did stumble out of Antrim and through Ulster before eventually winning the crown...

80s Child

Weather isn't great here in Mayo. Very wet and windy.

In team news, Colm Boyle is also out with an achilles injury.

The weather is my problem here with Dublin -4, so I just left it with Dublin, Kerry and Monaghan in a treble.

Boom__Boom

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Paddy Power currently offering 11/4 on St Mary's Cahirciveen to win the Intermediate football title which looks like really good value to me.

Key man is obviously Bryan Sheehan but they do have a lot of decent footballers for a club at intermediate level.
Paul O'Donoghue has been around the fringes of the Kerry squad the last while and there are at least 4 more on the team who have been involved with the Kerry Junior team at some stage. A couple of lads would have been involved with Colaiste Na Sceilge when they won the Colleges All-Ireland as well. The worry is an injury to Sheehan and the fact that there isn't a huge amount of squad depth. Also it's hard to get a good idea of what level their opposition will be like, but given Kerry teams' record in this competition over the years, I definitely think 11/4 represents decent value.

St Mary are 1/2 to win the Munster if you are feeling more risk averse.

Marys won this by 6 points. Hope some more were on it.

80s Child

80s Child wrote: »

Weather isn't great here in Mayo. Very wet and windy.

In team news, Colm Boyle is also out with an achilles injury.

The weather is my problem here with Dublin -4, so I just left it with Dublin, Kerry and Monaghan in a treble.

Boyle started.

wonga77

Dublin lead Mayo 2 - 1 after about 20 mins,
edit, just as I type Mayo level 2 apiece. Weather making a sh1t of it

wonga77

80s Child wrote: »

Weather isn't great here in Mayo. Very wet and windy.

In team news, Colm Boyle is also out with an achilles injury.

The weather is my problem here with Dublin -4, so I just left it with Dublin, Kerry and Monaghan in a treble.

Good call on the weather, Dublin win by 2. Rotten night for a game

biffo2014

biffo2014 wrote: »

My picks for the Weekend are all in Lower divisions. More value to be got in them IMO.

Louth -1 - 10/11
Waterford are very poor. County champions reps refusing to play also. Louth aren't a great team but to good for Div 4 and will be aiming to get out of it quick! Young Byrne is a fantastic player and is worth 4/5 points to them.

Leitrim to win - 8/15 (Tempted to go with the handicap but going to play it safe)
Leitrim were unlucky against Wexford last week. They have Emlyn Muligan back and he is worth 6/7 points on form. Wicklow struggled to beat a bad Waterford team last weekend and are hit with a couple of retirements.

Wexford +1 - 11/10
Although I feel Antrim are starting to get their act together, playing away from home doesn't suit them. They had a good win over a poor Carlow team last weekend. Wexford have hit rock bottom - but not for long. I feel they will lift the Div 4 cup this year. Good quality players and even though C.Lyng isn't playing I still think they have enough to win. It will be close though hence why the handicap verdict.

Westmeath -3 - 11/10 (NAP)
Westmeath had a great championship last year but a very poor league. They played good football against Kildare last sunday but Kildare turned up the heat in the Second half and the goals Killed Westmeath. As pointed out above, Sligo are in disarray. An extremely poor Pre Season along with the loss of Key players (Especially D.Kelly) is not a good sign. They will be relegated this year.

Checked the weather forecast today. Strong winds with temps around 10 Degrees. Strong winds in the south east/west and northeast particularly. Think Louth should still beat the Handicap - if they play the wind right. The Antrim/Wexford bet I feel could be tricky now. Although Wexford would be used to windy weather, been a coastal county, I am starting to feel it will suit Antrim better - Particularly at home. In two minds of this bet so going to leave it with my gut feeling nearer the throw in. EDIT: Wexford now +2 on the handicap and odds are Evens.

The Westmeath and Leitrim bet are the 2 I am most confident on and still they should click. Happy Betting.

biffo2014

armaghlad wrote: »

Thoughts on Cushendall/Sarsfields?

Can a team that was 50/1 for their own club championship really make an AI final?

I've a feeling they might get complacent... having got out of probably the toughest hurling championship in the country to get the "easy" draw of the Ulster winners...

I know Cushendall have had their eye on an AI and this is 2/3 years ago while Loughgiel were champs. Whether they have the ability to match their ambitions remains to be seen as they did stumble out of Antrim and through Ulster before eventually winning the crown...

Cant understand how Cushendall were hovering around 2/1 ish for this match. I would of had it 50/50 - maybe them edging it a bit.

Before the Ulster Club hurling final Cushendall were 25/1 to win the All Ireland and Slaughtneil their opponents were 33/1 at 1/2 the odds. So basically either bet was waiting on the outcome of the Semi Final to see a return. A friend of mine seen the value and 10 Each Way on both teams. A rofit now regardless but a greater profit if they win!
Hopefully Cushendall do it. Very passionate about their Hurling in North Antrim and its always nice to see clubs from Counties like Antrim, Carlow etc make a major hurling final.

armaghlad

biffo2014 wrote: »

Cant understand how Cushendall were hovering around 2/1 ish for this match. I would of had it 50/50 - maybe them edging it a bit.

Before the Ulster Club hurling final Cushendall were 25/1 to win the All Ireland and Slaughtneil their opponents were 33/1 at 1/2 the odds. So basically either bet was waiting on the outcome of the Semi Final to see a return. A friend of mine seen the value and 10 Each Way on both teams. A rofit now regardless but a greater profit if they win!
Hopefully Cushendall do it. Very passionate about their Hurling in North Antrim and its always nice to see clubs from Counties like Antrim, Carlow etc make a major hurling final.

I'm not a big hurling man but the feeling seems to be that Sarsfields were awful and simply didnt show up. Whether they took their opponents for granted or just ran out of steam, they never looked liked winning. They made it very easy for Cushendall in the end, who while being solid at the back still could have been a bit more clinical. They can't afford to miss as many frees in the final.

I love seeing the Antrim teams do well, their county team is in no way reflective of the standard of club hurling in the county. North Antrim especially, Loughgiel, Dunloy, Ballycastle, Cushendall and even St John's from Belfast are all top sides who IMO would hold their own against the best throughout the country.

wonga77

Leitrim down 9-1 at ht. please tell me they were playing into a monsoon

80s Child

I have never seen a Kerry team play like this. This is amazing me.

biffo2014

Well...........that was a weekend to Forget. 0/4

The wind and rain makes a very big Difference. Will surely take it on board next time.

Any tips for the Hurling this weekend?

biffo2014

Well...........that was a weekend to Forget. 0/4

The wind and rain makes a very big Difference. Will surely take it on board next time.

Any tips for the Hurling this weekend?

djPSB

Are Kerry any value at 9/2 in the hurling against Laois?

Laois have lost a few since last year and Kerry improving.

Vanolder

I tried to post a thread about a GAA tipping competition that another site has going... €10 entry fee, winner takes 80% of the pot. For both codes...has other sports too.

http://tfk.thefreekick.com/t/allianz-nhl-tipping-competition-week-1/21923/17

Boom__Boom

djPSB wrote: »

Are Kerry any value at 9/2 in the hurling against Laois?

Laois have lost a few since last year and Kerry improving.

Round 1 Limerick 2-23 Kerry 0-18 3/1 Gaelic Grounds
Round 2 Cork 1-20 Kerry 0-18 10/1 Mallow
Round 3 Clare 2-27 Kerry 0-8 13/1 Sixmilebridge
Round 5 Waterford 0-17 Kerry 0-8 23/1 Fitzgerald Stadium

Results from the Munster Hurling League game in January.
Obviously 4 losses but against the top level of competition.
Kerry will have known going in that these would be tough games but they will have definitely been targeting the Laois game as a serious target from a long way back.
The lineups for some of the games by the opposition were a bit experimental iirc - I think Cork played another challenge the same weekend as they played Kerry. The Clare team I heard was fairly strong and they supposedly had a lot of work done. Kerry can be a bit reliant on a couple of lads for getting the bulk of the scores so check the lineups. Also the weather could be very important. The handicap is Kerry +6 at evens - so maybe use this to reduce your risk might be an option?

Mantis Toboggan

biffo2014 wrote: »

Well...........that was a weekend to Forget. 0/4

The wind and rain makes a very big Difference. Will surely take it on board next time.

Any tips for the Hurling this weekend?

Think Dublin @ 23/10 represents good value in the hurling this Saturday.

Tipp will be looking for a good start in Thurles under new management but Dublin are usually flying this time of year, much fitter, tipp have had some poor warm up matches.

Don't like backing against my own team but it's hard not to take Dublin at that price.

armaghlad

Thoughts on the club semi finals...

Castlebar Mitchel's Crossmaglen Rangers
Clonmel Commercials v Ballyboden St Enda's

I think Castlebar out of the four teams play a very attractive brand of football, with goals usually guaranteed. The fact they dispatched of the reigning AI champions Corofin of Galway en route to their Connacht victory means they are genuine contenders and with previous heartbreak at the final stage will be highly motivated.

Crossmaglen to me are a team that you can never write off. They are probably not as strong as they were in previous years but they still have the know-how and experience to ground out wins at this level. They could go 4/5/6/7 points down early on and you'd still fancy them to come back. A very fit side but are suspect (IMO) around the middle and may be found out. They sailed through Ulster and funnily enough the tightest game they've got in SFC this season (apart from 5pt victory AET in the final) was a 3pt win over Maghery in the Armagh championship.

Clonmel Commercials annexed Munster and have kept the Tipperary football renaissance going beating traditional heavyweights Nemo Rangers in final to produce a minor shock. I don't know much about them other than having a few intercounty players; however my opinion of Munster club football at senior level is that it is quite weak having not produced a finalist since 2010 (who were thumped by St Gall's) and a winner since 2003. Before then Munster representatives had contested finals quite regularly, it is quite odd that it would stop so abruptly.

BBSE don't exactly have huge championship pedigree but then again any team that comes out of Dublin is a team to be reckoned with. Beating St Vincent's and Portlaoise along the way to winning Leinster are two massive scalps so I am inclined to favour the Dubs to win this semi.

xredmanlfcx

djPSB wrote: »

Are Kerry any value at 9/2 in the hurling against Laois?

Laois have lost a few since last year and Kerry improving.

I'm going big enough on Kerry +6 at evens. Ciaran Carey and Mark Foley involved, have been progressing for a few years, hopefully the Limerick lads will take them to a new level this year.

djPSB

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Round 1 Limerick 2-23 Kerry 0-18 3/1 Gaelic Grounds
Round 2 Cork 1-20 Kerry 0-18 10/1 Mallow
Round 3 Clare 2-27 Kerry 0-8 13/1 Sixmilebridge
Round 5 Waterford 0-17 Kerry 0-8 23/1 Fitzgerald Stadium

Results from the Munster Hurling League game in January.
Obviously 4 losses but against the top level of competition.
Kerry will have known going in that these would be tough games but they will have definitely been targeting the Laois game as a serious target from a long way back.
The lineups for some of the games by the opposition were a bit experimental iirc - I think Cork played another challenge the same weekend as they played Kerry. The Clare team I heard was fairly strong and they supposedly had a lot of work done. Kerry can be a bit reliant on a couple of lads for getting the bulk of the scores so check the lineups. Also the weather could be very important. The handicap is Kerry +6 at evens - so maybe use this to reduce your risk might be an option?

Kerry oblige.

Wexford96

xredmanlfcx wrote: »

I'm going big enough on Kerry +6 at evens. Ciaran Carey and Mark Foley involved, have been progressing for a few years, hopefully the Limerick lads will take them to a new level this year.

Well done

xredmanlfcx

Wexford96 wrote: »

Well done

Just came into this thread. I've had a busy weekend. Too busy. So busy I never got around to backing this. I had meant to do it on Sat or Sunday morning. Absolutely raging. I heard an update of the score on the radio 15 mins into the game and nearly lost the plot. Disgusted. :mad:

EDIT: **** me, it gets worse the more I think about it. Kerry +6 at evens? Christ. Kicking myself does not do it justice. Completely forgot to back it, was going to go big on it as I said.