GAA Betting

wadacrack

Anyone any opinion on LIT v WIT in Fitzgibbon cup. HT/Ft 1.91 for LIT who have already beat 2 strong cork college sides

xredmanlfcx

wadacrack wrote: »

Anyone any opinion on LIT v WIT in Fitzgibbon cup. HT/Ft 1.91 for LIT who have already beat 2 strong cork college sides

Sorry, didn't see this in time. Good shout. A red card for Waterford star Austin Gleeson after 25 mins killed off WIT's challenge. LIT won 16-8, having led by 3pts at HT. Limerick colleges going well, CIT v UL tonight in the last QF.

With Bubbles Dwyer suspended for CIT, I'll have UL to beat them in Cork this evening at 8/15 with Bet365.

Mantis Toboggan

Just based on last week's performances I'm taking a Galway tipperary double at just over 4/1

wadacrack

Offaly -4 against Laois evens PP

manafana

Derry are +8 10/11 with boyles looks little big considering they won this match up last time and conditions are going make good hurling difficult.

mountgomery burns

Tipp will win today in my opinion.

xredmanlfcx

Kerry hurlers easily covered the handicap again yesterday, they were +11 and lost by 4 to Limerick in Killarney.

I was at it as a Limerick supporter, Kerry were impressive, great work rate and just lacked maybe one or two clinical forwards. I'll continue to back them to cover the handicap each week.

PáircLife

Any fancies or good prices in the u21 football tonight lads?

GAA_PUNTER

<mod snip>

PáircLife

Now, any advice on what we do with this 10 euro?

laoisman11

The bad start continued into week 2 of the league, with Louth failing abysmally to cover the spread against Waterford; tally to date 0/2

This week's run identifies 2 games, Carlow to beat Waterford and Wexford to win big against London.

(Model output for Team A; PP spread is for Team

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Dublin | Monaghan |

5.9

|

4

Armagh | Fermanagh |

1.0

|

2

Cork | Roscommon |

3.5

|

3

Donegal | Mayo |

3.0

|

2

Down | Kerry |

-4.7

|

-3

Derry | Galway |

1.7

|

2

Laois | Tyrone |

-4.1

|

-2

Meath | Cavan |

3.3

|

1

Longford | Kildare |

-4.4

|

-3

Offaly | Sligo |

1.4

|

1

Westmeath | Tipperary |

0.5

|

2

Limerick | Clare |

-0.3

|

1

Wexford | London |

9.6

|

6

Antrim | Leitrim |

4.8

|

3

Carlow | Waterford |

2.7

|

-1

Louth | Wicklow |

4.5

|

2

Dots1982

Dublin to score first goal on Saturday is 4/5

Anyone tell when Monaghan ever scored a goal on Dublin?

olly11

Fancy UL for the Fitz outright. Taking some of the 11/8 on offer

PáircLife

olly11 wrote: »

Fancy UL for the Fitz outright. Taking some of the 11/8 on offer

I agree, they have a far stronger side than UCD and should win with a good few points to spare. I think Mary I will beat LIT, not by a lot! LIT well set up and Davy will have his homework done on match-ups etc... UL/ Mary I final will be a lot closer than their group match as Mary I have a few to come back from that team that played UL a few weeks back.
11/8 became an even better price last night when I heard Tony Kelly might be back this weekend. They probably won't need him tonight but I can guarantee if UL are down by a few tomorrow he'll be sprung from the bench.

yabadabado

Dots1982 wrote: »

Anyone tell when Monaghan ever scored a goal on Dublin?

Less than a year ago

Dots1982

yabadabado wrote: »

Less than a year ago

True, i was still prepared to take 4/5 although, 8/11 now

Hesh's Umpire

I like 3 of the 4 favourites in Division 4 this weekend.

Wexford, Carlow, Antrim and Louth pays 3.8 to 1 with PP.

Carlow at 11/10 is the obvious potential stumbling block but I fancy them to take Waterford, who the bookies have to edge it. Home advantage will be a help I hope for Carlow.

PáircLife

Another one to add in would be St. Kierans college -1 in the schools hurling, 10/11... Should beat that CBS team.

Mary I / UL going to be a cracker of a final. I think UL by 3 but Dec Hannon 1st goal. He's a goal machine at full forward!

shmeee

PáircLife wrote: »

Another one to add in would be St. Kierans college -1 in the schools hurling, 10/11... Should beat that CBS team.

Mary I / UL going to be a cracker of a final. I think UL by 3 but Dec Hannon 1st goal. He's a goal machine at full forward!

St Kierans well fancied and should have too much.

snoop09

Does anyone know what odds Tyrone were to beat Laois yesterday

Dots1982

snoop09 wrote: »

Does anyone know what odds Tyrone were to beat Laois yesterday

4/9 I think

armaghlad

Kerry -2 was like 5/6

Langers let me down badly though

keane2097

snoop09 wrote: »

Does anyone know what odds Tyrone were to beat Laois yesterday

They opened 1/2 and had shortened to 4/9 the last time I looked.

Dots1982

Kildare available at 15/8 to win the Leinster under 21 with PP, Dublin priced as favs.

Boyles more savvy with the odds offered.

Kildare should really be winning this. They walked the minor at this age group beating Dublin well in Parnell and Westmeath easily in the final.

Boom__Boom

Kerry hurlers are 9/2 to beat Wexford at home. Kerry have been going well and Wexford have been struggling.
Kerry +6 is evens so combine the two if you're feeling more risk averse.

armaghlad

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Kerry hurlers are 9/2 to beat Wexford at home. Kerry have been going well and Wexford have been struggling.
Kerry +6 is evens so combine the two if you're feeling more risk averse.

Did they get within 3 of Limerick? +6 at evens sounds a good bet.

Boom__Boom

armaghlad wrote: »

Did they get within 3 of Limerick? +6 at evens sounds a good bet.

Kerry Lost by 4 points to Limerick at home, beat Laois away by 4.
Was talking to someone who was at the Limerick game and Limerick did take a couple of lads off in the 2nd half, but he said Kerry finished very strongly and if they had a bit of luck and maybe 5 more minutes could easily have got a draw or even a win.

The other thing is that Wexford lost by 14 points away to Limerick and 4 points away to Clare. Wexford aren't going well - 1-6 of their 1-11 against Clare came from deadballs.

The Kerry game is at home.

laoisman11

Finally off the mark last weekend, with Wexford easily accounting for London; Carlow failed to cover the spread against Waterford; tally to date: a sorry 1/4.

Only one game shows up this weekend, Antrim to beat the spread against London.

(Model output for Team A; PP spread is for Team

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Dublin | Cork |

6.8

| 4
Cavan | Armagh |

4.1

| 2
Tyrone | Derry |

2.7

| 2
Waterford | Wexford |

-4.1

| -2
Roscommon | Down |

4.2

| 4
Kerry | Donegal |

2.0

| 2
Monaghan | Mayo |

0.4

| 1
Fermanagh | Laois |

2.0

| 1
Galway | Meath |

3.5

| 2
Tipperary | Offaly |

1.1

| 2
Clare | Westmeath |

1.1

| -1
Kildare | Limerick |

9.5

| 7
Sligo | Longford |

1.6

| 1
Leitrim | Louth |

-2.7

| -1
London | Antrim |

-11.1

| -7
Wicklow | Carlow |

4.1

| 3

keane2097

laoisman11 wrote: »

Finally off the mark last weekend, with Wexford easily accounting for London; Carlow failed to cover the spread against Waterford; tally to date: a sorry 1/4.

Only one game shows up this weekend, Antrim to beat the spread against London.

Have you tried assessing the entire list of predictions against the spread?

It's possible your model is valuable but you are being blinded to it by having an arbitrary rule where a prediction needs to be X points off before you call it a bet.

If your lists can predict winners at a rate of 54% you're profitable @ 10/11 bets. It would be worth seeing if they are that predictive when the difference is +/- 0.1pts.

It would give you a bigger sample to assess with also.

keane2097

Like, there's a case there where you have a home favourite that the bookies are making an underdog at match odds - that has to be a bet.