GAA Betting

Mantis Toboggan

Strong team named by tipp with Callanan back and with Waterford missing shanahan the - 1 @ 10/11 on 365 looks good value.

mountgomery burns

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Strong team named by tipp with Callanan back and with Waterford missing shanahan the - 1 @ 10/11 on 365 looks good value.

Heard Liam McGrath will start as Callanan not ready yet.

Was leaning towards Tipp this week, Shanahan a big loss. But theres no value in Tipp with Forde and Callanan out.

Conchy

Galway -2 at 11/10 is a good bet

manafana

fyi matchbook are starting to market the big gaa matches for example kerry v donegal today, liquidity with plenty 3.1+ on offer for donegal.

Mantis Toboggan

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Heard Liam McGrath will start as Callanan not ready yet.

Was leaning towards Tipp this week, Shanahan a big loss. But theres no value in Tipp with Forde and Callanan out.

Yeah Callanan pulled out this morning big lose.

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

Like, there's a case there where you have a home favourite that the bookies are making an underdog at match odds - that has to be a bet.

Thanks for the suggestions - I've had a look in detail and it's actually worse than I thought. Basically, with the limit of 3 points difference that I've set, I've had 1 winner from 6 (1/2 cover the spread; 0/4 beat the spread). If I extend this to 2 points difference, I get a total of 9/22 (6/14 cover the spread; 3/8 beat the spread). At 1 point difference between the prediction and the spread, I'm at 24/46 (13/29 cover the spread; 11/17 beat the spread).

For info, 3 out of 5 home underdogs came through, as in the prediction model output was closer to the actual result than the bookies spread.

I'm particularly pissed off because it was going fairly well during the championship and was a small gold mine towards the end of last year's league (I was even putting on accumulators which is very unusual for me).

I'll put up this weekend's predictions, but I've lost faith in the output. Just Antrim to cover the spread against Waterford.

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Down | Dublin |

-7.8

| -8
Fermanagh | Cavan |

-0.4

| -1
Limerick | Westmeath |

-1.3

| -1
Cork | Monaghan |

0.7

| 2
Mayo | Kerry |

0.0

| 1
Donegal | Roscommon |

2.9

| 2
Laois | Derry |

-2.8

| -1
Meath | Tyrone |

-2.3

| -2
Armagh | Galway |

-1.9

| -2
Kildare | Sligo |

7.1

| 6
Longford | Tipperary |

0.2

| -1
Offaly | Clare |

1.2

| 1
London | Leitrim |

-3.0

| -3
Antrim | Waterford |

7.8

| 4
Carlow | Louth |

-4.6

| -3
Wexford | Wicklow |

4.9

| 5

Rasputin11

Tipp hurlers 11/1 with Ladbrokes for Sunday, any point backing this?

armaghlad

Rasputin11 wrote: »

Tipp hurlers 11/1 with Ladbrokes for Sunday, any point backing this?

At 11/1 I'd certainly throw a tenner on it

xredmanlfcx

Rasputin11 wrote: »

Tipp hurlers 11/1 with Ladbrokes for Sunday, any point backing this?

11/1 for what? It's not 11/1 to beat Galway.

armaghlad

xredmanlfcx wrote: »

11/1 for what? It's not 11/1 to beat Galway.

Probs 11/10

Rasputin11

xredmanlfcx wrote: »

11/1 for what? It's not 11/1 to beat Galway.

It was online last night but quickly changed to 5/4. They wouldn't pay out on the 11/1 anyway.

armaghlad

Rasputin11 wrote: »

It was online last night but quickly changed to 5/4. They wouldn't pay out on the 11/1 anyway.

You'd be surprised. PP made a mistake on odds for a bet on a club match I did years ago. 10/1 instead of 1/10. I stuck £30 on it for ****s and giggles and they paid out. Mind you the bastards only won by a point!

manafana

laoisman11 wrote: »

Thanks for the suggestions - I've had a look in detail and it's actually worse than I thought. Basically, with the limit of 3 points difference that I've set, I've had 1 winner from 6 (1/2 cover the spread; 0/4 beat the spread). If I extend this to 2 points difference, I get a total of 9/22 (6/14 cover the spread; 3/8 beat the spread). At 1 point difference between the prediction and the spread, I'm at 24/46 (13/29 cover the spread; 11/17 beat the spread).

For info, 3 out of 5 home underdogs came through, as in the prediction model output was closer to the actual result than the bookies spread.

I'm particularly pissed off because it was going fairly well during the championship and was a small gold mine towards the end of last year's league (I was even putting on accumulators which is very unusual for me).

I'll put up this weekend's predictions, but I've lost faith in the output. Just Antrim to cover the spread against Waterford.

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Down | Dublin |

-7.8

| -8
Fermanagh | Cavan |

-0.4

| -1
Limerick | Westmeath |

-1.3

| -1
Cork | Monaghan |

0.7

| 2
Mayo | Kerry |

0.0

| 1
Donegal | Roscommon |

2.9

| 2
Laois | Derry |

-2.8

| -1
Meath | Tyrone |

-2.3

| -2
Armagh | Galway |

-1.9

| -2
Kildare | Sligo |

7.1

| 6
Longford | Tipperary |

0.2

| -1
Offaly | Clare |

1.2

| 1
London | Leitrim |

-3.0

| -3
Antrim | Waterford |

7.8

| 4
Carlow | Louth |

-4.6

| -3
Wexford | Wicklow |

4.9

| 5

its a system your going run into some bad runs even on good ones

manafana

Down are pretty awful if its as dry and calm up in DOwn, Dublin should run riot any thoughts?

keane2097

laoisman11 wrote: »

Thanks for the suggestions - I've had a look in detail and it's actually worse than I thought. Basically, with the limit of 3 points difference that I've set, I've had 1 winner from 6 (1/2 cover the spread; 0/4 beat the spread). If I extend this to 2 points difference, I get a total of 9/22 (6/14 cover the spread; 3/8 beat the spread). At 1 point difference between the prediction and the spread, I'm at 24/46 (13/29 cover the spread; 11/17 beat the spread).

For info, 3 out of 5 home underdogs came through, as in the prediction model output was closer to the actual result than the bookies spread.

I'm particularly pissed off because it was going fairly well during the championship and was a small gold mine towards the end of last year's league (I was even putting on accumulators which is very unusual for me).

I'll put up this weekend's predictions, but I've lost faith in the output. Just Antrim to cover the spread against Waterford.

Team A|Team B|Model output|PP spread
Down | Dublin |

-7.8

| -8
Fermanagh | Cavan |

-0.4

| -1
Limerick | Westmeath |

-1.3

| -1
Cork | Monaghan |

0.7

| 2
Mayo | Kerry |

0.0

| 1
Donegal | Roscommon |

2.9

| 2
Laois | Derry |

-2.8

| -1
Meath | Tyrone |

-2.3

| -2
Armagh | Galway |

-1.9

| -2
Kildare | Sligo |

7.1

| 6
Longford | Tipperary |

0.2

| -1
Offaly | Clare |

1.2

| 1
London | Leitrim |

-3.0

| -3
Antrim | Waterford |

7.8

| 4
Carlow | Louth |

-4.6

| -3
Wexford | Wicklow |

4.9

| 5

When you say cover vs beat the spread?

I wouldn't be so disheartened with those results fwiw, as I said you only need to be just above 50% to be a winner and you might find over a larger sample you're OK.

The fact that you're very close to the bookie line on so many matches means the model is quite close. Stick with it, a small adjustment might be all you need.

What's your home advantage number at the moment?

keane2097

Also of huge importance with gaa betting is that lines vary a lot between books. If you adjusted your results to best price rather than PP price you could easily be miles ahead.

.E_C_K_S.

manafana wrote: »

fyi matchbook are starting to market the big gaa matches for example kerry v donegal today, liquidity with plenty 3.1+ on offer for donegal.

Just saw this too, looks like they are covering Top divisions for both codes only, some good prices too

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

When you say cover vs beat the spread?

I wouldn't be so disheartened with those results fwiw, as I said you only need to be just above 50% to be a winner and you might find over a larger sample you're OK.

The fact that you're very close to the bookie line on so many matches means the model is quite close. Stick with it, a small adjustment might be all you need.

What's your home advantage number at the moment?

Cover the spread = favourites win by more than expected; beat the spread = underdogs lose by less than expected.

Yeah, I'll have to take some time and try to fine tune this a bit. Home advantage didn't have any effect on the model so it is not included (I use a different calculation for the ranking output in the GAA thread which does take into account home advantage).

Loafing Oaf

Any thoughts on the club football final chaps? Was looking at a Ballyboden 1-3 pts win @ 19/4

armaghlad

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Any thoughts on the club football final chaps? Was looking at a Ballyboden 1-3 pts win @ 19/4

I'll be in a minor state of shock if BBSE win tbh

Loafing Oaf

armaghlad wrote: »

I'll be in a minor state of shock if BBSE win tbh

I don't know a whole lot about club football, but as a Mayoman I can never be confident about any of our sides winning in Croker...

armaghlad

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't know a whole lot about club football, but as a Mayoman I can never be confident about any of our sides winning in Croker...

Yous are a superstitious bunch ill give yas that much... I'm basing it on the fact BBSE have squeezed through games they should have been beaten in, not through their own resolve but the other tea f*cking it up. Castlebar have been here before and lost. I think they'll have learned something from that...

robbiezero

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Any thoughts on the club football final chaps? Was looking at a Ballyboden 1-3 pts win @ 19/4

1/3 is shocking odds on a Mayo team in an All-Ireland final. Aside from that, Boden are a solid if unspectacular outfit and IMO have a far better chance than 11/4 against a team that shat the course in last years All-Ireland. Will be having a bit of BBSE +3.

Loafing Oaf

Gone with a small bit on Castlebar/draw HT/FT. Expecting a close one...

Loafing Oaf

armaghlad wrote: »

I'll be in a minor state of shock if BBSE win tbh

Armaghlad as we speak:


One thing I've learned following Mayo team for 30-odd years is you can never have too little confidence in their big-match prospects...

armaghlad

I've just recovered from my shock...

Make no bones about it BBSE were full value for their 12 point win. But jesus CM were SH1TE! They just didn't turn up. I hadn't realised the Mayo curse extended to their club teams but seemingly it has manifested itself there now as well. I think even the Boden players whether they admit it or not know that was the easiest game they had all year.

KevIRL

Value spot. A Kilkenny and Galway double Sunday in the hurling is just over evs (PP). However KK to top 1A is 9/4, which is effectively the same outcome.

Galway looking to avoid a relegation play off and against a Waterford team with a lot of changes who are already through to the QF. kk and Dublin both through but KK at home there

mjp

Don't know where your seeing KK Galway double at Evs with powers as they 2/5 and 5/6 which pays just under 7/4 the double.

KevIRL

mjp wrote: »

Don't know where your seeing KK Galway double at Evs with powers as they 2/5 and 5/6 which pays just under 7/4 the double.

2/5 and 4/7 now. Galway price went right in quickly after the Waterford team was named

mjp

KevIRL wrote:

2/5 and 4/7 now. Galway price went right in quickly after the Waterford team was named

Sorry didn't realise that. Still 11/10 with Boyles with double paying over 2's