GAA Betting

Radonman

I really ke Kerry today, talking to a few of them, the fowards are going really well in training so gonna bet accordingly
Kerry (-2) @ 4/5 with Boyles
Donnahy anytime @ 3/1 PP
Darren or Declan 1st goal @ 9/2
over 2.5 goals in the game @ 15/8 with Ladbrooks
Mayo over 14.5pts @ 11/10

Now i know there is a lot there but good value in all of them i reckon

Megatitan

Sir Vival wrote: »

A couple of games on in Roscommon this weekend with the opportunity of a lovely double.

Kilmore are 11/8 to beat Kilbride. I'd definitely have kilmore as 5/6 favourites for this. They're a real championship team and are unbeaten from the group stages. They boast a couple of county panelists as well arguably one of the best club players in roscommon in connellan who never performed/got the real chance at county level. Although kilbride will aspire to win this, they'll be happy enough have come out of their group and have retained senior status. I think the venue will also suit kilmore more as they are the more mobile outfit. Kilmore by 3pts for me.

Elphin are a generous 4/6 to beat Roscommon Gaels. County finalists last year, Elphin are so far beating 2nd season syndrome and look a good team. They're a pacy team who work hard and only for the lack of a real of big scoring threat up front they'd be a super team. However i do believe they'll have enough for ros gaels who I reckon are a few years ahead of their time. They've quite a young team and wouldn't be experienced at playing in big games against strong teams in the latter end of the championship. Scoring also seems to be a big problem for them at the moment and I honestly can't see them scoring over 11/12 points. Elphin by 3pts is my shout

Kilmore/Elphin double, €20 returns €79.17


Anyone have a look at the markets for the Kerry/Mayo game yet. Some really interesting ones. I really like the following...

O'Sullivan Specials: Declan to outscore Darren @evens. I think this is a great price. I can't see Darren having another big game but I expect the opposite from Declan who'll gets lots of room off Vaughan. I have Declan as player of the year @6/1 also so really hoping for a massive game from him.

First goal (void if no goal): Left Foot @11/10. Surely this is a decent price considering cooper, declan and darren o sullivan and varley are left footers? Perhaps freeman or donaghy could fck it up but I reckon if there's a goal, cooper will get it.

Any word on these results?

Pool4Life

Megatitan wrote: »

Any word on these results?

Kilmore lost
elphin won

cup of tea

Radonman wrote: »

I really ke Kerry today, talking to a few of them, the fowards are going really well in training so gonna bet accordingly
Kerry (-2) @ 4/5 with Boyles
Donnahy anytime @ 3/1 PP
Darren or Declan 1st goal @ 9/2
over 2.5 goals in the game @ 15/8 with Ladbrooks
Mayo over 14.5pts @ 11/10

Now i know there is a lot there but good value in all of them i reckon

Are you sure that handicap price is right?.Kerry (-2) is 4/9 on BS and 4/7 with Powers.

Johnny86

The Tipperary minors are flying it so will back them to in a double to win this match @ 11/8 and Donaghy to score over 1.5 pts @5/6 (should work out to be roughly 3/1)

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

The Tipperary minors are flying it so will back them to in a double to win this match @ 11/8 and Donaghy to score over 1.5 pts @5/6 (should work out to be roughly 3/1)

Gahhh....Paddypower won't allow me to combine this bet! Just going with Tipp so (slightly biased as i'm from Tipp!)

Sir Vival

Pool4Life wrote: »

Kilmore lost
elphin won

I went to both of these games seeing as they were both in the same venue. Kilmore really blew it. They were 3pts up with a little of 5 minutes left and started giving away silly frees and got in a real panic then when they were only a point up. It was a very poor game, neither team deserved to win but 3pts up with so little time left, it was very frustrating to see kilbride win.

Elphin won 0-6 to 0-3. Another awful game but still a game that elphin never looked like losing.

Apologies if any backed the double, i'm still p***** off

gnella

Johnny86 wrote: »

Gahhh....Paddypower won't allow me to combine this bet! Just going with Tipp so (slightly biased as i'm from Tipp!)

why wont they let you double these? bets are not related

Sir Vival

gnella wrote: »

why wont they let you double these? bets are not related

Bets on scorers are always singles only for some reason. I always wondered to players back themselves on the under/over markets. I'd say some do..

johnny_cash

I always wonder do many players back their own team to win? There was two lads off our local team stopped at boylesports and placed €500 each on themselves to win at 4/5.They won by 7 points but i don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing players are that confident before a match

Radonman

cup of tea wrote: »

Are you sure that handicap price is right?.Kerry (-2) is 4/9 on BS and 4/7 with Powers.

yea, it was that a few days ago, i normally do a few days of research first - i went in to do the bet today but like you said it was 4/9 so did (-3) with PP @ 4/5, not as confident as (-2) but its on now anyways

Dailynaps

Kerry V Mayo - Backed highest scoring half to be 2nd half 11/10 PP, think Mayo will keep it tight until second half.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Gahhh....Paddypower won't allow me to combine this bet! Just going with Tipp so (slightly biased as i'm from Tipp!)

Well this came good but I've thrown away the winnings on donkeys!
The Kerry Mayo match looking like a low scoring affair so far anyway

keysersoze0330

johnny_cash wrote: »

I always wonder do many players back their own team to win? There was two lads off our local team stopped at boylesports and placed €500 each on themselves to win at 4/5.They won by 7 points but i don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing players are that confident before a match

tell them to give me a buzz next time they're feeling confident, ill go on the bus with them!!

Warper

Dublin h-t f-t @ 5-6 with PP seniors

jive

johnny_cash wrote: »

I always wonder do many players back their own team to win? There was two lads off our local team stopped at boylesports and placed €500 each on themselves to win at 4/5.They won by 7 points but i don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing players are that confident before a match

I would be worried that a keeper at club level might have a mare by 'accident' while a close friend or family member has a few hundred squids on the game!! As long as lads are backing themselves to win then I see no problem with it at all

UrbanSea

This is widespread.
Another is for league of Ireland players to give their friends money to back them to get booked. Not huge stakes but enough to make a few quid.

ben.schlomo

UrbanSea wrote: »

This is widespread.
Another is for league of Ireland players to give their friends money to back them to get booked. Not huge stakes but enough to make a few quid.

Rubbish, the 'to be booked' market is offered by no more than two mainstream bookies and this market is only in use on EPL games and at that at the moment its 1in2 or 1in3 live games at best.
Not doubting people tell their friends what to back and not to back but be accurate at least.

UrbanSea

My apologies ben. I've been told it gets priced up sometimes for cup finals,I was just going on something that I was told.

Patsy fyre

So thinking of the football semi final the weekend. Dublin are 5/6 FT-HT and 11/10 -3, what ye guys think is the best value there ?

UrbanSea

I'd say -3. Donegal will want to keep it tight in the first half and might even sneak a point or two ahead. Think Dublin's class will see them pull ahead in the second

Mont

Patsy fyre wrote: »

So thinking of the football semi final the weekend. Dublin are 5/6 FT-HT and 11/10 -3, what ye guys think is the best value there ?

Think HT-FT myself. Donegal have been behind against Kildare and Tyrone at HT so are generally a second half team. They are mad tight in the first half, then expand in the second. Dublin have been ahead at HT in every game this season.

Patsy fyre

Mont wrote: »

Think HT-FT myself. Donegal have been behind against Kildare and Tyrone at HT so are generally a second half team. They are mad tight in the first half, then expand in the second. Dublin have been ahead at HT in every game this season.

Cheers lads, i may just back the 2 of them depending on how results go tonight.

paul08

Interesting 2 games in prospect this weekend: Start off with the minor , Galway and Dublin, dublin are overwhelming favourites however they havent been tested yet and itll be interesting to see if galway can stay in touch with 10/15 minutes to go. Galway have some good forwards there shane walsh conor rabitte and the likes and i wouldnt be surprised at all to see them run close or even win: just going for the one bet in this game shane maughan anytime goalscorer at 7/1 with powers. Bit speculative but this lad is a powerful unit, expect to see him moved in full forward if galway are behind in the second half and at 7/1 he has capacity to do damage.
Senior game is one which has the look of a low scoring encounter about it. I reckon this dublin team are being over hyped in the media with donegal slipping in under the radar. dublin forwards will be faced with a wall of defenders for most of the game and i think if b.brogan has an off day dublin are in severe trouble. diarmuid connolly had a good day the last day but is hit and miss completely didnt do much in the leinster championship and will possibly be picked up by either mc gee or lacey2 excellent players. bet for this game will be connolly under 1.5 points at 11/8 with powers

Radonman

In the Dublin/Donegal game, its tough to call and imo Donegal are great value espically if the brogans have an off day (which they shouldn't All Ireland semi after all) but the bet that jumps out at me is the total points market at under 30.5 @ 5/6 with Boyles and Ladbrooks - Donegal have only conceeded 1 goal this year and Kildare only scored 10 pts against in normal time (they averaged 17 per game), so thats where I'm lumping it - best of luck everyone

Sir Vival

Radonman wrote: »

In the Dublin/Donegal game, its tough to call and imo Donegal are great value espically if the brogans have an off day (which they shouldn't All Ireland semi after all) but the bet that jumps out at me is the total points market at under 30.5 @ 5/6 with Boyles and Ladbrooks - Donegal have only conceeded 1 goal this year and Kildare only scored 10 pts against in normal time (they averaged 17 per game), so thats where I'm lumping it - best of luck everyone

This looks as good as in!

I'm taking no goal @10/11 now, hopefully donegal can keep up the pressure and not give away a penalty... otherwise I can see no goal chance nevermind a goal scored.

c_man

Radonman wrote: »

the bet that jumps out at me is the total points market at under 30.5 @ 5/6 with Boyles and Ladbrooks

A bit high with hindsight :pac:

Gavin "shels"

Any idea of odds on Dublin at HT to win?

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

In the Dublin/Donegal game, its tough to call and imo Donegal are great value espically if the brogans have an off day (which they shouldn't All Ireland semi after all) but the bet that jumps out at me is the total points market at under 30.5 @ 5/6 with Boyles and Ladbrooks - Donegal have only conceeded 1 goal this year and Kildare only scored 10 pts against in normal time (they averaged 17 per game), so thats where I'm lumping it - best of luck everyone

c_man wrote: »

A bit high with hindsight :pac:

Yup, easiest money i made all year never i any trouble (i should have checked the no goal odds before the game too), just added to a great day on the football betting forum too :cool:

Radonman

Gavin shels wrote: »

Any idea of odds on Dublin at HT to win?

Sorry Gavin, I did not check that bet

Sir Vival

Radonman wrote: »

Sorry Gavin, I did not check that bet

The dubs were a measly 8/11 at half time with donegal @6/4

longshotvalue

Tipp no goalscorer 4/1 is too big, obviously im a bit biast, but there mightnt be as easy a route to goal this year as last..

kk/kk ht/ft at 3/1 looks huge as well..

all on paddy power

premierstone

aidankkk wrote: »

Tipp no goalscorer 4/1 is too big, obviously im a bit biast, but there mightnt be as easy a route to goal this year as last..

kk/kk ht/ft at 3/1 looks huge as well..

all on paddy power

Dont think its that big at all tbh, obv im biased aswell!! But Hickey is the weaklink, Murphy is a rookie - granted he has done nothing wrong to date - and Lar Corbett and Eoin Kelly have scored 9 goals in 4 games and thats not even mentioning Noel McGrath, Seamie Callinan and John O Brien.

ForeverYoung90

Anyone else think Kilkenny 6/4 is too big a price to not get on?You dont just become a bad team overnight!

Patsy fyre

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Anyone else think Kilkenny 6/4 is too big a price to not get on?You dont just become a bad team overnight!

Crazy, considering the weather conditions forecast for Sunday which will suit them to the ground, They should be favorites in my eyes although im hoping for a Tipp win.

longshotvalue

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Anyone else think Kilkenny 6/4 is too big a price to not get on?You dont just become a bad team overnight!

there is no doubt that 6/4 is too big, this match is evens as far as im concerned, kilkenny will be improved from last year and tipp might not find it as easy to get goals, which will bring the result very close.

It a real 50/50 game and 6/4 does not reflect their chance..

gudede

This is what I wrote on another site.

gudede wrote:

Well it's All Ireland Hurling day again and again for the 3rd year running it's Tipperary V Kilkenny in the final. The Following is what I wrote last year

gudede wrote:

The final is on Sunday the 5th. Kilkenny are 2/5 fav's and you can get Tipperary at 5/2.

Kilkenny are going for 5 in a row which has never been done in Hurling history, but this Kilkenny team are the greatest team in history. Some pundits are Tipping up Tipperary because Tippereary nearly beat Kilkenny in last years final. (Tipp 0-23 V Kilkenny 2-22)

But lets look at this years results.

Tipperary
Tipperary (0-14) V Cork (3-15) (Goals scored - Points Scored) Note a goal is worth 3 points.
Tipperary (3-24) V Wexford (0-19)
Tipperary (0-21) V Offaly (1-12)
Tipperary (3-17) V Galway (3-16)
Tipperary (3-19) V Waterford (1-18)

Average For 2-19....Average Against 2-15

Kilkenny
Kilkenny (4-19) V Dublin (0-12)
Kilkenny (1-19) v Galway (1-12)
Kilkenny (3-22) V Cork (0-19)

Average For 2-22....Average Against 0-16

You notice both teams played against Cork & Galway. Cork hammered Tipperary off the field in their game back in June but then Cork got hammered by Kilkenny a couple of weeks ago.

Galway had a very close game against Tipperary but then got hammered by Kilkenny.

SO if you look at the form you have to back Kilkenny. Kilkenny go for goals and you can see this year Tipperary conceded 8 goals and Kilkenny scored 8 goals. Even in last years final Kilkenny scored 2 goals and Tipperary scored none.

In my opinion Tipperary where a better team last year and I think they'll get hammered this year.You can back the handicap and get 11/10 on Kilkenny.

Therefore back Kilkenny -4 @ 11/10

But my bet lost with Tipperary winning by 8 points (4-17 to 1-18). I couldn't believe it. But looking back the game wasn't so one sided. Henry Shefflin (Hurling's answer to Messi) was injured after 13minutes and at half time Tipperary where only winning by a point. 1-10 to 1-09. But in the second half Tipperary really pushed on and scored three goals which really made the difference. Some people have called that final the greatest ever in which Tipperary played the best hurling they probably ever did that day and needed to, to beat Kilkenny.

http://www.irishcentral.com/story/sport/sean_oshea/tipperary-win-over-kilkenny-perhaps-greatest-all-ireland-hurling-final-ever-102258434.html

Tipperary are in great form this year and they are banging in the goals so far, but they seemed to dried up against Dublin in the semi final. But maybe Dublin just found out a way to stop the goals. The following are the results for Tipperary (I wouldn't pay to much attention to the Waterford result because Waterford were really poor that day)

14 Aug 2011 Tipperary 1-19 : 0-18 Dublin
10 Jul 2011 Tipperary 7-19 : 0-19 Waterford
19 Jun 2011 Tipperary 4-19 : 1-19 Clare
29 May 2011 Tipperary 3-22 : 0-23 Cork

Kilkenny are just doing enough in every game so far this year and just have there eye on the final. They seem to have changed the way they are playing Hurling, they missed a couple of goal chances in last years final and so this year they seem to be going for points instead of goals.

07 Aug 2011 Kilkenny 2-19 : 1-16 Waterford
03 Jul 2011 Kilkenny 4-17 : 1-15 Dublin
11 Jun 2011 Kilkenny 1-26 : 1-15 Wexford

Kilkenny have conceded more goals but they have actually concede alot less points than Tipperary. 15 points average for Kilkenny compared to nearly 20 for Tipperary. That says to me that Kilkenny seem to control games better that Tipperary. Also in last years final Michael Fennelly (my man of the match) (Kilkenny) controlled the midfield and I'll think he'll do the same this year.

So its time for payback, with only a point last year in it at half time Tipperary's manager would of talked about the feeling of losing the 2009 final etc etc, that team talk will be in Kilkenny's dressing room this year and also they have Henry back playing this year. I'm sticking by my views of last year and I backed

Kilkenny to win at 6/4 and Kilkenny -4 @ 4/1 (I want my money back ha)

Kilkenny's team will be announced later on tonight so after that the price will probably be cut.

Radonman

Not going to bet on the Hurling Final because i just want to enjoy what should be a cracking game but in the Minor Final over 41.5 pts @ 11/10 with PP tickles my fancy so gonna put a same wager there - both are high scoring teams and the weather should be good too

padraig_f

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Anyone else think Kilkenny 6/4 is too big a price to not get on?You dont just become a bad team overnight!

I think it's about right, 6/4 isn't saying Kilkenny are a bad team, but that Tipp are slight favourites, which on the evidence, I think is right.

My take:
Tipp have put in the most dominant performance of the year, against Waterford. They're all-ireland champions (and the final 2 years ago was controversial, so could be going for 3-in-a-row).

Not sure what Kilkenny have done in the last year to show they're back to the level they were. They haven't played a team close to Tipp's level this year, and they don't destroy weaker teams like they used to. They were shakey enough in the semi-final, and if Waterford took their chances they could've won.

Yeah, they might win but I don't see the evidence that says they've moved up a level from last year.

gudede wrote:

14 Aug 2011 Tipperary 1-19 : 0-18 Dublin
10 Jul 2011 Tipperary 7-19 : 0-19 Waterford
19 Jun 2011 Tipperary 4-19 : 1-19 Clare
29 May 2011 Tipperary 3-22 : 0-23 Cork


07 Aug 2011 Kilkenny 2-19 : 1-16 Waterford
03 Jul 2011 Kilkenny 4-17 : 1-15 Dublin
11 Jun 2011 Kilkenny 1-26 : 1-15 Wexford

My take on these numbers:

- You can't just throw out their performance against Waterford. Waterford went on to beat Galway well and give Kilkenny a good game in the semi-final.

- Margin of victory is about the biggest indicator of success, and Tipp have a higher average margin-of-victory against arguably tougher opposition.

- Tipp have only conceded one goal so far in the championship, wow!

gudede

padraig_f wrote: »

My take on these numbers:

- You can't just throw out their performance against Waterford. Waterford went on to beat Galway well and give Kilkenny a good game in the semi-final.

- Margin of victory is about the biggest indicator of success, and Tipp have a higher average margin-of-victory against arguably tougher opposition.

- Tipp have only conceded one goal so far in the championship, wow!

Sure you can say the same thing about the Dublin games. Kilkenny took it easy against Waterford in my opinion and Tipperary still gave away 19 points against a very poor Waterford.

padraig_f

gudede wrote: »

Sure you can say the same thing about the Dublin games. Kilkenny took it easy against Waterford in my opinion and Tipperary still gave away 19 points against a very poor Waterford.

Yeah there were parallels in that both teams won their provincial final well and underperformed in the semi-final. It's hard to judge the form as well because both teams are so far ahead of the others. I just think with Tipp winning last year, to say Kilkenny are now even with them, you have to make a stronger case for them in the intervening time and I just don't see that. If anything Tipp's form is slightly better, their demolition of Waterford being clearly the best performance of the year, in maybe the second most-important match.

I also don't think Kilkenny ever take it easy in matches. When they won their 4-in-a-row, they were destroying weaker teams. So to say in their last competitive match before the final (that they could've lost), they were taking it easy, I don't buy it. I'm not saying Kilkenny are big underdogs, 6/4 which I think is about right, still gives them a 40% chance. But I don't see the evidence that says they're quite back at Tipp's level.

I'm keeping my money in my pocket for this one but will be on the same side as you as I'll be rooting for Kilkenny, so that's one thing we agree on

padraig_f

padraig_f wrote: »

I'm keeping my money in my pocket for this one

So much for good intentions, I had a punt on Eddie Brennan as first goalscorer @ 11/1. Promoted to a starting spot since the semi-final, so presumably going well in training. What I like about Brennan for this bet is if he gets the ball within 30 yards of the posts he'll be thinking 'goal' where another player would be happy to take a point.

PatsyTyrrell

Anyone backing in the minor final... havent heard much about galway, will the dubs shade it.... think il back kilkenny think they have 1 more all ireland in them

sam27

i have a gut feeling that not only will Kilkenny win but they will win by double didgits ie 10 points or more!

PatsyTyrrell

sam27 wrote: »

i have a gut feeling that not only will Kilkenny win but they will win by double didgits ie 10 points or more!

That is some statement

cup of tea

corbett and sheflin first GS 4/1 and 6/1 respectively. Can't make an educated bet on the game as it just seems impossible to call.

markc1184

Gone for a Dublin/Kilkenny double. Comes in at a little over 4/1.

magherakid

Tipperary v Kilkenny
Liking the Over 3.5 Goals 5/4 with PP

ft9

I fancy Kilkenny today, strongly biased opinion.

Kilkenny -3 11/4

Richie Hogan to score a goal 9/4

Michael Rice MOM 25/1

I can see the KK midfield and half forward line dropping back that extra few yards to crowd out the Tipp forwards.

Would not surprise me if TJ Reid starts or comes on early into a midfield role which will allow Rice forward making things difficult on P.Maher with a workman like performance.

Come on KK!!!

thesandeman

As I dont really mind who wins Ive done the following to keep me interested all the way through-

First Pointscorer- Corbett 1.5pts @10/1.
First GS- Corbett 4pts ew @9/2.
First GS- Shefflin 4pts ew @15/2.
First KK GS- Shefflin 4 pts @4/1.
KK win and Shefflin first GS- 1pt @14/1.
Corbett 2 or more goals 3pts @10/3.
Shefflin 2 or more goals 1.5 pts @9/1.
MOM- Shefflin 1.5pts @8/1.
MOM- Shefflin or Corbett 5pts @10/3.
Draw and KK to win replay 1pt @25/1.

With the various money-back offers and assuming neither of the lads gets injured early Im hoping for some sort of a return but at least it will keep me entertained.