GAA Betting

keane2097

If Dublin win the five in a row I don't believe the journos will allow another Andy Moran/Lee Keegan vs split vote situation to occur, i.e. there will almost certainly be three Dubs nominated by the journos if Dublin win again.

Say we assume Dublin win, would anyone lay me evens on three Dubs being nominated?

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Got on this today,

I see he's in to 11s now. My tenner must have moved the market:P

robbiezero

Is a handicap of 16 on Longford u20s v Dublin up in Longford tonight what people would expect?
Seems huge for a 60 minute away game even for the Dubs.

iluvfatfrogs

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I see he's in to 11s now. My tenner must have moved the market:P

You can presume I had a good go at it before I posted!

iluvfatfrogs

keane2097 wrote: »

If Dublin win the five in a row I don't believe the journos will allow another Andy Moran/Lee Keegan vs split vote situation to occur, i.e. there will almost certainly be three Dubs nominated by the journos if Dublin win again.

Say we assume Dublin win, would anyone lay me evens on three Dubs being nominated?

Probably worth asking PP for a price on that

Hulk Hands

keane2097 wrote: »

If Dublin win the five in a row I don't believe the journos will allow another Andy Moran/Lee Keegan vs split vote situation to occur, i.e. there will almost certainly be three Dubs nominated by the journos if Dublin win again.

Say we assume Dublin win, would anyone lay me evens on three Dubs being nominated?

It's an interesting one actually. There's been very little hype about any Dublin players this year. Last year at this stage we knew Kilkenny, Fenton and Brian Howard were cleaning up. Maybe Costello this year prior to the last day, now he might be dropped. And it'll be more of the same in the Super 8s, they'll breeze through game 1 and 2, noone will care, game 3 versus Tyrone will probably be a challenge game. So they'll be coming into a semi with no hype about anyone whereas on the other side you've Murphy, Brennan, likely Clifford, AOS or Walsh or someone depending on who makes a final. Jack McCaffrey got motm in both the semi and final last year and only got nominated and didn't win it. I can see every Dublin player starting from that kind of 'standing start' this year. I probably think it's bigger than evens but I dunno am I willing to lay it! Il think more

Clippett

keane2097 wrote: »

If Dublin win the five in a row I don't believe the journos will allow another Andy Moran/Lee Keegan vs split vote situation to occur, i.e. there will almost certainly be three Dubs nominated by the journos if Dublin win again.

Say we assume Dublin win, would anyone lay me evens on three Dubs being nominated?

If you think they win the 5 in a row then a far better bet is to just take the 1/2 on them doing so rather than Evs on what you hope the journalists will do.. on something they have never done before iirc .. EVS is a lay at this point in champ imo

keane2097

Clippett wrote: »

If you think they win the 5 in a row then a far better bet is to just take the 1/2 on them doing so rather than Evs on what you hope the journalists will do.. on something they have never done before iirc .. EVS is a lay at this point in champ imo

(In terms of 'something they have never done before', if you mean the panel nominating three Dublin players they did so in 2015 and 2018, i.e. half the times during the four in a row. )

The question is around a discussion of value in the POTY market. Specifically if backing guys like Michael Murphy, Sean O'Shea etc represents value in a situation where Dublin are 60-70% (at least) likely to have just won five in a row. I didn't ask what people would lay at is point in the Championship - I asked what people would lay on the assumption that Dublin had won the AI.

There is undoubtedly a meta element to this where a journalist panel (with John Costello as Chairman by the way), having a conversation will certainly discuss whether or not they are willing to countenance an Andy Moran type result in a year in which Dublin have completed an emblematic achievement in terms of dominance.

Just to clarify again, this is all for the purposes of trying to assess the FOTY market. If you're trying to figure out whether, say, Jonny Cooper at 150/1 is better value than Michael Murphy at 11/1 the meta of the nomination process is something I reckon people ought to be thinking about.

Edit just to flesh out the above:
If you believe, like me, that if Dublin win they are way shorter than evens to get three nominations then Cooper EW @ 150s is potentially much better value than Murphy at 11s, as Cooper being one of probably only 6/7 guaranteed starters for Dublin has a much chunkier chance of being one of the three picked in the end than the EW odds suggest.

CorkeryABU

Don’t think Cooper even played Leinster, 😂😂😂😂

keane2097 wrote: »

(In terms of 'something they have never done before', if you mean the panel nominating three Dublin players they did so in 2015 and 2018, i.e. half the times during the four in a row. )

The question is around a discussion of value in the POTY market. Specifically if backing guys like Michael Murphy, Sean O'Shea etc represents value in a situation where Dublin are 60-70% (at least) likely to have just won five in a row. I didn't ask what people would lay at is point in the Championship - I asked what people would lay on the assumption that Dublin had won the AI.

There is undoubtedly a meta element to this where a journalist panel (with John Costello as Chairman by the way), having a conversation will certainly discuss whether or not they are willing to countenance an Andy Moran type result in a year in which Dublin have completed an emblematic achievement in terms of dominance.

Just to clarify again, this is all for the purposes of trying to assess the FOTY market. If you're trying to figure out whether, say, Jonny Cooper at 150/1 is better value than Michael Murphy at 11/1 the meta of the nomination process is something I reckon people ought to be thinking about.

Edit just to flesh out the above:
If you believe, like me, that if Dublin win they are way shorter than evens to get three nominations then Cooper EW @ 150s is potentially much better value than Murphy at 11s, as Cooper being one of probably only 6/7 guaranteed starters for Dublin has a much chunkier chance of being one of the three picked in the end than the EW odds suggest.

BandMember

keane2097 wrote: »

(In terms of 'something they have never done before', if you mean the panel nominating three Dublin players they did so in 2015 and 2018, i.e. half the times during the four in a row. )

The question is around a discussion of value in the POTY market. Specifically if backing guys like Michael Murphy, Sean O'Shea etc represents value in a situation where Dublin are 60-70% (at least) likely to have just won five in a row. I didn't ask what people would lay at is point in the Championship - I asked what people would lay on the assumption that Dublin had won the AI.

There is undoubtedly a meta element to this where a journalist panel (with John Costello as Chairman by the way), having a conversation will certainly discuss whether or not they are willing to countenance an Andy Moran type result in a year in which Dublin have completed an emblematic achievement in terms of dominance.

Just to clarify again, this is all for the purposes of trying to assess the FOTY market. If you're trying to figure out whether, say, Jonny Cooper at 150/1 is better value than Michael Murphy at 11/1 the meta of the nomination process is something I reckon people ought to be thinking about.

Edit just to flesh out the above:
If you believe, like me, that if Dublin win they are way shorter than evens to get three nominations then Cooper EW @ 150s is potentially much better value than Murphy at 11s, as Cooper being one of probably only 6/7 guaranteed starters for Dublin has a much chunkier chance of being one of the three picked in the end than the EW odds suggest.

As in the Dublin County Board Chief Executive and Cormac Costello's father?

If so, then THAT is bound to be a completely objective and well balanced conversation they will have.... :rolleyes:

iluvfatfrogs

keane2097 wrote: »

(In terms of 'something they have never done before', if you mean the panel nominating three Dublin players they did so in 2015 and 2018, i.e. half the times during the four in a row. )

The question is around a discussion of value in the POTY market. Specifically if backing guys like Michael Murphy, Sean O'Shea etc represents value in a situation where Dublin are 60-70% (at least) likely to have just won five in a row. I didn't ask what people would lay at is point in the Championship - I asked what people would lay on the assumption that Dublin had won the AI.

There is undoubtedly a meta element to this where a journalist panel (with John Costello as Chairman by the way), having a conversation will certainly discuss whether or not they are willing to countenance an Andy Moran type result in a year in which Dublin have completed an emblematic achievement in terms of dominance.

Just to clarify again, this is all for the purposes of trying to assess the FOTY market. If you're trying to figure out whether, say, Jonny Cooper at 150/1 is better value than Michael Murphy at 11/1 the meta of the nomination process is something I reckon people ought to be thinking about.

Edit just to flesh out the above:
If you believe, like me, that if Dublin win they are way shorter than evens to get three nominations then Cooper EW @ 150s is potentially much better value than Murphy at 11s, as Cooper being one of probably only 6/7 guaranteed starters for Dublin has a much chunkier chance of being one of the three picked in the end than the EW odds suggest.

Maybe they’ll do the opposite and ensure only Dublin player is up for POTY to ensure there is no split vote and he gets it!
Dublin to beat Kerry in final and Cooper Murphy and Clifford all to be nominated to ensure that cooper gets across the line.
(Cooper could be any Dublin player really)

diusmr8a504cvk

The term "faux-outrage" comes to mind.
I'm sure the Hurlers are at home looking at the odds with their blood boiling :rolleyes:
https://twitter.com/Jamwall7/status/1146107234671300614?s=19

passremarkable

Anyone see a price for Cluxton for player of the year ?

iluvfatfrogs

passremarkable wrote: »

Anyone see a price for Cluxton for player of the year ?

PP 12/1
Boyles 14/1

Same As

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

PP 12/1
Boyles 14/1

Has shortened up a good bit in the last 10 days or so. Was 25/1 & 33/1 with the Irish books and shortened to the above prices.

Has a very good chance to place at least imo as I personally can't see Dublin being turned over right now.

keane2097

Same As wrote: »

Has shortened up a good bit in the last 10 days or so. Was 25/1 & 33/1 with the Irish books and shortened to the above prices.

Has a very good chance to place at least imo as I personally can't see Dublin being turned over right now.

I believe he was originally 60/1 or 66/1 or something.

LuasSimon

Is Dublin at 1/2 for Sam becoming more and more attractive ?
None of the other contenders have looked threatening really , Donegal perhaps and Kerry’s tradition the only 2 possible flys in the ointment ??.. Tyrone beaten already by Donegal .
Dublin surely come out of super 8 group , 2 matchs then , what would worst scenario be , a semi final against Donegal and final v Kerry .

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Current P/L for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #9406)


Jennings: +51.29
Mulvihill: -18.94

Jennings Recommendations 6/7/2019


Mayo (Mayo vs Galway)
2pts 10-11 general

Laois (Laois vs Cork)
3pts 21-10, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

Cavan (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 4-1 BoyleSports

Cavan +5 (Cavan vs Tyrone)
3pts 5-6 Betway, BoyleSports

Cavan-Cavan double result (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 9-1 Betway

Under 33.5 points (Cavan vs Tyrone)
2pts 5-6 Betfair, Paddy Power

franglan

Gone for over 14.5 points Mayo @8/15 and a double of Tyrone - 2 and Cork - 1 @1.61/1

bcklschaps

What thoughts on tonights most interesting game, Mayo v Galway ?

Mayo 10/11
Draw 15/2
Galway 6/5

Cillian O'Connor starting for Mayo, but Lee Keegan out.

Damien Comer, Paul Conroy both probably starting for Galway but after long spells out with injuries.

Mayo just snuck past Armagh last Sat. Are they tired?

Galway fell apart in 2nd half of Connaught final loss to Roscommon....but have had a few weeks to re-gather themselves.

The draw actually looks enticing here....and a fresher Galway to win in extra time.

CapsLock20

Cork might be worth a punt for goals.

Six goals in their two championship matches to date
3-18 against Limerick
3-10 against Kerry

And Laois shipped three against Meath

Loafing Oaf

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Recommendations 6/7/2019


Mayo (Mayo vs Galway)
2pts 10-11 general

Laois (Laois vs Cork)
3pts 21-10, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

Cavan (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 4-1 BoyleSports

Cavan +5 (Cavan vs Tyrone)
3pts 5-6 Betway, BoyleSports

Cavan-Cavan double result (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 9-1 Betway

Under 33.5 points (Cavan vs Tyrone)
2pts 5-6 Betfair, Paddy Power

Does this guy have a good record? Laois and especially Cavan would be against conventional wisdom there...

spurshero

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Recommendations 6/7/2019


Mayo (Mayo vs Galway)
2pts 10-11 general

Laois (Laois vs Cork)
3pts 21-10, Betfair, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

Cavan (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 4-1 BoyleSports

Cavan +5 (Cavan vs Tyrone)
3pts 5-6 Betway, BoyleSports

Cavan-Cavan double result (Cavan vs Tyrone)
1pt 9-1 Betway

Under 33.5 points (Cavan vs Tyrone)
2pts 5-6 Betfair, Paddy Power

Does this guy have a good record? Laois and especially Cavan would be against conventional wisdom there...

In fairness since the start of the championship
Season he has being excellent and for example if you had put 20 on each selection you would be up over 1000.

liosnagceann75

Any football qualifier to go to penalties 50/1

Boom__Boom

CapsLock20 wrote: »

Cork might be worth a punt for goals.

Six goals in their two championship matches to date
3-18 against Limerick
3-10 against Kerry

And Laois shipped three against Meath

I could not be more strongly opposed - Pretty much all of these 6 goals would fall all into the the awful category in terms of the defending teams - I only saw the Limerick goals in the Sunday Game highlights but the Limerick backs were very poor from what I saw - for one of the Corks goals the Limerick backs didn't do much more than stand in place. I've watched the goals in the Kerry game back a couple of times and from a defensive point of view the goals were in the category of gifts. Bar the goals I would have serious concerns over Cork's overall forward play - if they do get by Laois I would not be shocked if Dublin and Tyrone both kept them to less than 10 points. I could see Roscommon shutting them down to but not to the same extent. They have been able to get scores in the Limerick and Kerry games because they came up against two defences that were awful, lacking intensity and didn't put them under any sort of serious defensive pressure. Even still their forwards were wasteful (from the reports I read of the Limerick game) and what I saw from the Cork game (watching it live and back)

No goals is far more likely in my opinion (even though Laois are a team that have had some issues with conceding goals)

ShamoBuc

Cork footballers over 1.5 goals 6/4 Bet365
Brian Hurley anytime goalscorer 23/10 pp - nice price I think.

Loafing Oaf

spurshero wrote: »

In fairness since the start of the championship
Season he has being excellent and for example if you had put 20 on each selection you would be up over 1000.

I doubt if his life depended on it he'd call Cavan to beat Tyrone but I suppose every tipster has to throw in the odd curveball.

grattanspuds

spurshero wrote: »

In fairness since the start of the championship
Season he has being excellent and for example if you had put 20 on each selection you would be up over 1000.

He has an excellent record this year but no-one will ever convince me that he has the first clue about the game. For what it ’s worth I’d have the opposite view of all his selections tonight

Loafing Oaf

My weekend acca: Galway straight win and Tyrone and Meath on the handicap

The real mccoy 91

Under 1.5 goals in tyrone Cavan 9/4

Over 35 points in cork game
Tyrone under 20.5 points
Double 11/4