GAA Betting

Mantis Toboggan

davegilly wrote: »

I backed this myself, didn't get 12/1 though? Where was that price, mine ended up at 9/1?

Paddy Power from last Wednesday. Didn't last long as I saw it at 11/1 by Friday evening. I'd say they lost a good few pound on that one.

RIALTO1

RIALTO1 wrote: »

I think the 12/1 EW on Tyrone for the AI offers some value. It’s 1/3 the odds first 2, so effectively getting 4/1 on them to make the final.

Purely on an odds basis, they are currently odds on to make the semi-final (between 5/6 and 4/6), so let’s call the true odds evens. On that basis, 4/1 is giving you 6/4 about them qualifying from the semi-final. They would then most likely face Kerry or Donegal (would be favs against anyone else, and arguably even against Kerry). In the name the finalist market, PP go 10/3 about Dublin/Kerry or Dublin/Donegal, and 7/2 about Dublin/Tyrone. Which suggests Donegal or Kerry would be marginal favourites, let’s say 10/11 vs 11/10 in a 100% book. So the 6/4 looks good.

PP offer 4/1 on them to make the final, where they are 3/1 with Boils. Also interesting that they are shorter in the name the finalist market (as above 7/2 to meet Dublin) than to qualify or on the EW part of the 12/1.

What makes the outright market more appealing is you get the 4/1 to reach the final, and are then left with a 12/1 about them lifting the cup. The 4/1 may appeal more if you didn’t want to have half your stake on them to actually win, but a decent bank will mean you can lay off at that point – not sure what price they would be to win outright in a final vs Dublin, but wouldn’t be a 12/1 shot.

Opinions welcome

So after the dust settles, Tyrone face Kerry to make the final and land the 4/1. It's 4/7 Kerry and 5/4 Tyrone, so 100% book would be around 8/11 and 11/8. Ended up being a small bit of value in the 4/1.

Dots1982

turniphead wrote: »

I think Tyrone @ 6/4 is a good bet. Kerry defense has been poor all year and they're very susceptible to goals. Their kickouts are poor as well. Tyrone will have a plan for Clifford and O'Shea. I think that Kerry @ 8/11 is an awful price.

You could be right but Tyrone are not really performing in terms of individual player performance. Only Mcshane would get an all star if voting stopped now.

CapsLock20

Any bets for the club championships this weekend?

hurler97

CapsLock20 wrote:

Any bets for the club championships this weekend?

I think Carrigaline are a good bet at 9/4 to beat Bishopstown in the Cork SFC. Bishopstown are after a horrific league campaign in Division 3 and have been relegated to division 4 after losing to many PIFC and IFC teams.
Carrig managed to just stay up in Division 2 with a few results in the latter stages going their way.
They started at 3/1 and are now 9/4

CorkeryABU

Erne Gaels are a bet in Fermanagh 10/11

hurler97 wrote: »

I think Carrigaline are a good bet at 9/4 to beat Bishopstown in the Cork SFC. Bishopstown are after a horrific league campaign in Division 3 and have been relegated to division 4 after losing to many PIFC and IFC teams.
Carrig managed to just stay up in Division 2 with a few results in the latter stages going their way.
They started at 3/1 and are now 9/4

80s Child

CorkeryABU wrote: »

Erne Gaels are a bet in Fermanagh 10/11

I followed you both for the craic with a cheeky double.

Carraig are now 7/4!!

€10 returns 52.50, so 4.25/1

The bet is with PP

Here's hoping!

Frozen Veg

Forecast indicating a downpour in Dublin tomorrow evening.

bcklschaps

Thinking about going in big on Dublin for tomorrow. 1/5 so 20% return on your money (if they win, obviously).

My question is ...
Is there any possibility that Mayo can upset the applecart and maybe force a draw etc ?

Wet day ... could it become a lottery etc. ?

My logic for betting heavy on Dublin is because they just have soo many good players in soo many positions. If things aren't working, they can change it up many different ways. Mayo are a rag bag ...(a spirited rag bag..but a rag bag nonetheless) and they are going to run out of road tomorrow, right ??

cute geoge

bcklschaps wrote: »

Thinking about going in big on Dublin for tomorrow. 1/5 so 20% return on your money (if they win, obviously).

My question is ...
Is there any possibility that Mayo can upset the applecart and maybe force a draw etc ?

Wet day ... could it become a lottery etc. ?

My logic for betting heavy on Dublin is because they just have soo many good players in soo many positions. If things aren't working, they can change it up many different ways. Mayo are a rag bag ...(a spirited rag bag..but a rag bag nonetheless) and they are going to run out of road tomorrow.

Put your money where your mouth is and put the house on Dublin so !!
It is 15 against 15 on the day and one thing in life is ''very little ever goes according to plan!!!''

liogairmhordain

Waterford ladies footballers worth a punt at 15/2 vs Galway

Mantis Toboggan

Weather would be my only concern, mayo will be far more suited to the wind and rainy conditions. I've Dublin - 5 backed but I'd cash out now if I could.

ShortKickOut

Any insider knowledge on the raft of club games on this weekend? Any odds standing out in your counties? Usually a good market to make a few pound.

davegilly

bcklschaps wrote: »

My question is ...
Is there any possibility that Mayo can upset the applecart and maybe force a draw etc ?

Dublin are on the way down, there is no doubt about that - how long it takes them to fall from the summit is anyone's guess. However it most certainly will not be Mayo who get to knock them from the top. Unfortunately. This Mayo team have been getting worse for a few years now and have only barely made it to here. Galway beat them. Armagh should have beaten them. Kerry hammered them. The show is over folks.

Dublin at 1/5 is buying money in opinion. They should beat the spread handy as well. The fighting spirit in Mayo may get them to within 5 so I'd be cagey on that but I genuinely think Dublin could win this by 12-15 points if both teams play to their potential. Unfortunately.

littlevillage

davegilly wrote: »

Dublin are on the way down, there is no doubt about that - how long it takes them to fall from the summit is anyone's guess. However it most certainly will not be Mayo who get to knock them from the top. Unfortunately. This Mayo team have been getting worse for a few years now and have only barely made it to here. Galway beat them. Armagh should have beaten them. Kerry hammered them. The show is over folks.

Dublin at 1/5 is buying money in opinion. They should beat the spread handy as well. The fighting spirit in Mayo may get them to within 5 so I'd be cagey on that but I genuinely think Dublin could win this by 12-15 points if both teams play to their potential. Unfortunately.

Interesting thoughts.

Btw : I assume you meant Roscommon beat Mayo, (not Galway).


My only worry is that with all the hype building up and the short odds etc. Could Dublin just have one of those days where they have a complete systems failure? and allow Mayo a poxy win/draw?

Just for the record, I have no dog in this fight, just trying to cover all angles and make a few quid.

davegilly

littlevillage wrote: »

Btw : I assume you meant Roscommon beat Mayo, (not Galway).

Yea, not thinking straight.

littlevillage wrote: »

My only worry is that with all the hype building up and the short odds etc. Could Dublin just have one of those days where they have a complete systems failure?.

It would have to be complete and utter.
They are too clever and experienced for that to happen though, I think.
The final though is another matter. The level of hype will be off the scale for that. The nerves will be incredible and they could get turned over there. I think Kerry would have a better chance of beating them as well - they are a young team used to winning. They've already beaten the dubs in the league so they will have no fear whatsoever of them.
I don't think they will beat Tyrone though!

RIALTO1

Personally would be going big on Dublin -4 if it was a dry day. Two forward lines are miles apart Weather making it a no bet for me. Line of 38.5 seems high. Do we think the weather is already priced into that or will it come down between now and then. A nice juicy middle of 3-4 points would be great, just not sure how low it could go with Dubs involved.

Hammer Archer

Summerhill 6/5 with PP to beat Ratoath in the Meath SFC looks very good. Think Summerhill really should be favourites.

Same As

Current P/L for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #9406 &

Dean Rock championship top scorer (AISFC 2019)
1pt 25-1 Paddy Power


Jennings: +44.77
Mulvihill: -22.42


Jennings Selections 10/8/2019


First half to be higher-scoring (Dublin vs Mayo)
3pts 15-8 Betfair, Paddy Power

John Small over 0.5 points (Dublin vs Mayo)
2pts 2-1 Paddy Power

John Small man of the match (Dublin vs Mayo)
1pt 25-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Brian Howard man of the match (Dublin vs Mayo)
1pt 16-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

turniphead

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Personally would be going big on Dublin -4 if it was a dry day. Two forward lines are miles apart Weather making it a no bet for me. Line of 38.5 seems high. Do we think the weather is already priced into that or will it come down between now and then. A nice juicy middle of 3-4 points would be great, just not sure how low it could go with Dubs involved.

The weather forecast is bad and because of that I think 38.5 is too high. I've taken a nice punt on the unders. I'm hoping it'll be the same weather as Dublin v Kerry in 2015 which was very wet. The final score that day was 0:12 to 0:09.

I also think Lee Keegan not to score is a good price at 11/10. Surely he'll be given another man-marking job like he had with Murphy last weekend.

grattanspuds

turniphead wrote: »

The weather forecast is bad and because of that I think 38.5 is too high. I've taken a nice punt on the unders. I'm hoping it'll be the same weather as Dublin v Kerry in 2015 which was very wet. The final score that day was 0:12 to 0:09.

I also think Lee Keegan not to score is a good price at 11/10. Surely he'll be given another man-marking job like he had with Murphy last weekend.

Completely agree about Keegan, am on him under 0.5 pts myself. Also on James McCarthy over 0.5 pts at 6/4, think he could well be midfield. Also have Dublin -4, think this is a very average Mayo side who Dublin could take to the cleaners

langer91

Dublin -5 at evens backed earlier on in the week. Large stake

Strabanimal

Is anyone on Mayo at all?

catrat12

5/1 too good of a price

Always Tired

Was in the bookie yesterday in Donegal and the same fellas who backed Donegal to beat Mayo now seem convimced Mayo have a shot and are backing them, unable to accept Donegal are an average team with one great player, and they also had injuries.

I was in to back Siskin, an undefeated horse bidding to give its trainer its first group 1 winner, with the far away leading jockey on board. Then it drifted from odds on and was odds against for a bit due to what... the rain. The word was that he had never run on soft and skipped Ascot cuz it went soft, and the ground would suit the Obrien horse he had beat easily the last time out. The result was the same, and I think we get the same result Mayo always get in Croke Park as well. Obviously totally different type of event but I really don't think the weather will stop a Dublin team that will be well rested and even in a monsoon would never kick the 14 wides Donegal did.

Mayo had 12 wides that day. I'm happy enough to give them a 5 point head start now I expect Dublin to be up that at half time and cruise from there. Ive backed Mayo before in this spot and they had much better form those years coming into the match and were competitive but could never do it even when it was there for them, if they didnt do it those times they won't do it with this team.

Guffy

Always Tired wrote: »

Was in the bookie yesterday in Donegal and the same fellas who backed Donegal to beat Mayo now seem convimced Mayo have a shot and are backing them, unable to accept Donegal are an average team with one great player, and they also had injuries.

I was in to back Siskin, an undefeated horse bidding to give its trainer its first group 1 winner, with the far away leading jockey on board. Then it drifted from odds on and was odds against for a bit due to what... the rain. The word was that he had never run on soft and skipped Ascot cuz it went soft, and the ground would suit the Obrien horse he had beat easily the last time out. The result was the same, and I think we get the same result Mayo always get in Croke Park as well. Obviously totally different type of event but I really don't think the weather will stop a Dublin team that will be well rested and even in a monsoon would never kick the 14 wides Donegal did.

Mayo had 12 wides that day. I'm happy enough to give them a 5 point head start now I expect Dublin to be up that at half time and cruise from there. Ive backed Mayo before in this spot and they had much better form those years coming into the match and were competitive but could never do it even when it was there for them, if they didnt do it those times they won't do it with this team.

Ya but the last player of the cursed Mayo team died this year, so.... ya know like.

Conchy

ShortKickOut wrote: »

Any insider knowledge on the raft of club games on this weekend? Any odds standing out in your counties? Usually a good market to make a few pound.

Gaeil Colmcille to beat Navan O'Mahonys at 10/11 is a good bet. Have bet them 3 times so far this year.

As another poster says Summerhill really should be slight favorites to beat Ratoath.

Strabanimal

Is it still 5/1? Where are you betting?

Skybet only have them at 4/1

CorkeryABU

Another blank Saturday

Same As wrote: »

Current P/L for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #9406 &

Dean Rock championship top scorer (AISFC 2019)
1pt 25-1 Paddy Power


Jennings: +44.77
Mulvihill: -22.42


Jennings Selections 10/8/2019


First half to be higher-scoring (Dublin vs Mayo)
3pts 15-8 Betfair, Paddy Power

John Small over 0.5 points (Dublin vs Mayo)
2pts 2-1 Paddy Power

John Small man of the match (Dublin vs Mayo)
1pt 25-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Brian Howard man of the match (Dublin vs Mayo)
1pt 16-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

bcklschaps

cute geoge wrote: »

Put your money where your mouth is and put the house on Dublin so !!
It is 15 against 15 on the day and one thing in life is ''very little ever goes according to plan!!!''

I did... happy days :-)