GAA Betting

keane2097

Wow Brigid's at evens and Ballymun @2.1 for the final. Really thought Brigid's would be a lot shorter than that.

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

Sigh, thought Galway (evs) and Clare (3/10) would have been priced bit bigger for this weekends league games. Will be taking Galway anyway at that price, think that they will have enough for KK in Pearse stadium, if it was Nowlan Park then maybe a bit different.

In terms of the league overall I think Galway 5/2 to win division 1A is a cracking bet. They have 3 home games and 2 away, the homes are against KK, Tipp and Cork and they travel to Clare and Waterford. Couldnt be more favourable. Also can see them being pretty determined to have a good league to ensure competitive games for as long as possible given that they pretty much have a bye into the Leinster Championship thanks to a super handy draw. They are available at 3/1 to win the League outright, but I think the 5/2 on winning 1A is the better bet as it rules out a loss in the playoffs.

Will have a closer look at the other league games closer to the weekend, initial thoughts are that Galway (evs) and Tipp (4/6) look worth a bet, gonna have to check the handicap in the other 1A game when its up. Zero value in any of the 1B matches this weekend imo

Boyles go 13/10 Galway, thats more like it. Will be having some of that for sure

ciaran1988

just read this on hoganstand and maybe Waterford could be worth a bet at 3/1.

Clare have an injury crisis on their hands as the national hurling league looms.

The Banner County open their Division 1A campaign against manager Davy Fitzgerald's former charges Waterford at Ennis this weekend and will be without five key men.

Former captain Brian O'Connell, Cian Dillon, Nicky O'Connell, Conor McGrath and Darach Honan will all miss out on the game, which is a dress rehearsal for this summer's Munster SHC meeting of the same two teams.

keane2097

Hopefully people have been keeping an eye on my weekly column over the last while, pretty nice scoop:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-sigerson-cup-club-action/

KevIRL

I've grabbed the controls of the Proper Punter mobile for the weekends hurling, catch my thoughts here

G-G-G-Galway

passremarkable

Kerry look like good price to beat Westmeath in hurling IMO

KevIRL

passremarkable wrote: »

Kerry look like good price to beat Westmeath in hurling IMO

Going by this post from a Kerry hurling fan on the GAA forum I wouldnt be getting on them tbh

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

Could be tough year ahead for my own county,starting out with a very young panel this year and have lost 6 experienced players to retirement and other reasons,the three home games are going to be massive if we can get results in them then we should be safe,starting on Sunday against Westmeath who are a level ahead of Kerry at the moment and will probably push Laois for the title

Staying in this division will be the goal this year.

pbowenroe

Galway gone into 4/5 on Boyles.

manafana

yeah galway gambled into odds on everywhere. Also like carlow +7 at odds against with ladbrokes. wexford not that great anyway and carlow are getting better.

passremarkable

passremarkable wrote: »

Kerry look like good price to beat Westmeath in hurling IMO

had a feeling this one would come in. westmeath very poor

langer91

ciaran1988 wrote: »

just read this on hoganstand and maybe Waterford could be worth a bet at 3/1.

Clare have an injury crisis on their hands as the national hurling league looms.

The Banner County open their Division 1A campaign against manager Davy Fitzgerald's former charges Waterford at Ennis this weekend and will be without five key men.

Former captain Brian O'Connell, Cian Dillon, Nicky O'Connell, Conor McGrath and Darach Honan will all miss out on the game, which is a dress rehearsal for this summer's Munster SHC meeting of the same two teams.

great call made a nice bit off it

KevIRL

passremarkable wrote: »

had a feeling this one would come in. westmeath very poor

Sigh, hope me reposting the bit from the GAA forum didnt put you off man.

Galway brought home the beans for me today, if they could go onto top the table it would be extra sweet.

Didnt have balls to back Waterford, wp those who did.

passremarkable

KevIRL wrote: »

Sigh, hope me reposting the bit from the GAA forum didnt put you off man.

Galway brought home the beans for me today, if they could go onto top the table it would be extra sweet.

Didnt have balls to back Waterford, wp those who did.

yea won a bit on them..but also had them in a treble with waterford and ireland rugby...ragin with the oval ball boys..screwed me over

ciaran1988

Bennys Betting Box this week is

Armagh
Limerick
Derry
Kildare

ciaran1988

2 teams this weekend who look like value to me.

Down 11/4 at home to Cork
Clare 2/1 away to Offaly

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

ciaran1988 wrote: »

2 teams this weekend who look like value to me.

Down 11/4 at home to Cork
Clare 2/1 away to Offaly

Offaly are actually going quite well under the new manager I wouldnt be betting on Clare to beat them there.

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Offaly are actually going quite well under the new manager I wouldnt be betting on Clare to beat them there.

At 2/1?

How bad do we think Clare are?

Offaly are definitely overpriced in that one, as were Limerick last time out. Especially with Anton Sullivan injured. A couple of half decent performances in the O'Byrne cup have not transformed Offaly from possibly the worst team besides London in the country last year into a side that ought to be almost 1/2 against anyone.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

At 2/1?

How bad do we think Clare are?

Offaly are definitely overpriced in that one, as were Limerick last time out. Especially with Anton Sullivan injured. A couple of half decent performances in the O'Byrne cup have not transformed Offaly from possibly the worst team besides London in the country last year into a side that ought to be almost 1/2 against anyone.

I think thats a stretch to be honest. Offaly had a poor season last year but are by no means the worst team in the country. They played very well in the game against Limerick only to lose it in the last 2 minutes.

Maybe their underpriced but I would rather back an underpriced winner than an overpriced loser.

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Maybe their underpriced but I would rather back an underpriced winner than an overpriced loser.

lol, must be nice not caring about money!

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

lol, must be nice not caring about money!

I think you either misread or misunderstood the statement.

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

I think you either misread or misunderstood the statement.

Well your statement seems to baldly contradict the fundamental aim of sports-betting which is that you should avoid betting underpriced selections and aim to bet overpriced selections at all costs.

"I'd rather back an underpriced winner than an overpriced loser" is the sort of talk that keeps Paddy Power in caviare.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

Well your statement seems to baldly contradict the fundamental aim of sports-betting which is that you should avoid betting underpriced selections and aim to bet overpriced selections at all costs.

"I'd rather back an underpriced winner than an overpriced loser" is the sort of talk that keeps Paddy Power in caviare.

No I'm afraid your wildly mistaken there.

Backing winners is the fundamental aim of sports betting.

I would always rather back a winner than a loser as I'm sure you would.

Now if your talking about looking for value then thats a different argument. But for me Clare are far from overpriced.

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

No I'm afraid your wildly mistaken there.

Backing winners is the fundamental aim of sports betting.

Ok.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

I would always rather back a winner than a loser as I'm sure you would.

Nope, I'd much prefer to know I'd made the correct pre-match assessment of which selection is value based on the relative strengths of the teams and how the prices align with those strengths.

If I could find some crystal ball that would tell me with 100% certainty that I had made a bet at the correct price every time I wouldn't ever even bother looking at who won a particular game, there would be no need.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Now if your talking about looking for value then thats a different argument.

Says you.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

But for me Clare are far from overpriced.

What price do you make them?

Say I'm barred from every bookie and the best I can do is back Offaly at 1/4 with a buddy. If I make that bet and Offaly win have I made a correct bet?

elhorse

I think the key factor here is: is mcnamee fit to play? If he is, Offaly will beat Clare. If not, I wouldn't touch them at that price

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

Ok.



What price do you make them?

Initial look I think Clare should be 5/2 and Offaly are priced about right maybe should be 4/6.

Just my opinion of course. Clare may have improved but I think Offaly with McNamee, Conor will have too much for them up front.

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Initial look I think Clare should be 5/2 and Offaly are priced about right maybe should be 4/6.

You think both sides are too short?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

You think both sides are too short?

I think Offaly are about right. Its all subjective and dependent on players available.

keane2097

Here's this week's column anyway, hopefully we can keep up the extremely profitable recent run:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-bringing-home-the-bacon/

*may include betting on Clare

KevIRL

I think Limerick are a tad big at evs to beat our lads tomorrow night

keane2097

KevIRL wrote: »

I think Limerick are a tad big at evs to beat our lads tomorrow night

Yeah that was pretty close to a bet as well, especially with no Gary Hurney.

What happened the other O'Gorman lad?

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

I think Limerick are a tad big at evs to beat our lads tomorrow night

sigh, was right unfortunately. Close game but Limerick shade it by 8 points to 6

keane2097

A ****ing own goal for a crossbar in the Armagh Longford game. Sigh.

Hulk Hands

keane2097 wrote: »

A ****ing own goal for a crossbar in the Armagh Longford game. Sigh.

I was on it too. However, if there was any justice in the game Armagh would've been down to 14 or 13 for the ridiculous fouls when Longford were through for goals. So can't give out too much

passremarkable

laois screwed me over last night..whats the bets for today ?

sboyle01

Kildare 4/5
Tyrone v Donegal (u29.5) 5/6 on Boylesport.

manafana

Yeah I think kildare can hold off kerry meant be a sell out.

Also think tyrone are value to beat donegal at 10/11, have looked much the sharper team so far this season and thier at home

ciaran1988

Cork score a goal with the last kick off the game to deny me on my bet on Down but still up this weekend thanks to two singles on Cavan and Clare and an accumulator on Benny's Betting Box tips.

keane2097

Ha - checked the scores on my phone earlier and misread the Offaly - Clare result thinking Offaly had scored a late goal to steal it. Very happy to see I was wrong! That 2/1 was an outrageous price. Hope I had a few followers this week as it's been another profitable one.

keane2097

ciaran1988 wrote: »

Cork score a goal with the last kick off the game to deny me on my bet on Down but still up this weekend thanks to two singles on Cavan and Clare and an accumulator on Benny's Betting Box tips.

Nicely done. What's Benny's Betting Box?

ciaran1988

Benny Tierney's tips in his Irish News column. I post them up on here. In the 3 weeks of the NFL he has had 2 winning accumulators.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Good work lads over the weekend. Profitable weekend with most of the games going as though. Tyrone, Kildare , Dublin treble happy days :-)

Offaly and Clare proved to be a good encounter in the end nice to see keane2097 hitting a winner there and at 2/1 nice price too.

KevIRL

Handicaps are up for this weekend for div 1A hurling. Cork -1 against Waterford is fantastic imo. Ladbrokes seem to be biggest at 10/11 for that. Also going -2 with PP @ 11/10.

Sent it into Keane for the PropPunt but not sure when he puts it up on the site so thought I'd throw it up here too.

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

Handicaps are up for this weekend for div 1A hurling. Cork -1 against Waterford is fantastic imo. Ladbrokes seem to be biggest at 10/11 for that. Also going -2 with PP @ 11/10.

Sent it into Keane for the PropPunt but not sure when he puts it up on the site so thought I'd throw it up here too.

Cap moved to -2 (evs) everywhere except Boyles who are -1 (4/5). Still a bet imo

ciaran1988

Bennys Betting Box this week is

Antrim
Cavan
Leitrim
Tyrone

keane2097

I've had bets on Armagh +2 @ evens and Longford @ 5/4 so far. Leaning towards a bet on Dublin as well.

keane2097

Wexford look way too big to me away to Louth as well, what am I missing?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

Wexford look way too big to me away to Louth as well, what am I missing?

Home teams seem to be getting alot of respect from the bookmakers. Actually going on our previous discussion about Offaly and Clare this seems similar to the Kerry/Dublin ,Offaly/Clare lines home team favoured too much maybe?

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Home teams seem to be getting alot of respect from the bookmakers. Actually going on our previous discussion about Offaly and Clare this seems similar to the Kerry/Dublin ,Offaly/Clare lines home team favoured too much maybe?

Yeah that and bookies reading too much into very short term form.

By my rating, I'd have Wexford very slight favourites for this. In their three games so far they played very much in the boundaries of expectation in the first two, i.e. narrowly beating Longford at home (would have made them ~2.5pt favs) and drawing in Armagh (~1pt dogs).

In the first game, I'm pretty sure I opposed Longford which means the bookies slightly underrated Wexford/slightly overrated Longford (probably the latter).

In the second game I didn't have a bet so both teams were rated about right.

In the third game Derry beat them handily in Wexford unexpectedly. I would have made Wexford ~1.5pt favourites for that one so they were about 10pts below expectation. Considering I didn't have a bet on that game either the bookies obviously agreed with me again, which means that in all three games so far the bookies have rated Wexford very close to how I've rated them.

Now all of a sudden, they lose one game badly and their price and mine are out by a massive amount (1.95 vs 2.75). From this we can see that either I wildly underrate Louth (which is unlikely as I've only had one small bet against them to date based on bad info), both myself and the bookies have hugely overrated Wexford to date or the bookies are hugely overestimating the last game.

I think the massive likelihood is that it's the third option there, which is all a longwinded way of saying I've now backed Wexford and am very happy with it.

(I'll probably be using the above post in my column later as well!)

keane2097

Here's this week's bit, nothing major in it that hasn't been discussed here but I'd appreciate the clicks

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-well-be-churlish-if-we-want/

passremarkable

any more tips for today ?