GAA Betting

ft9

sonnky wrote: »

Anyone think Shefflin a big price for top scorer?

What's the odds?

BKC

ft9 wrote: »

I don't see the relevance of what price I think kk should be against cork tipp and Galway to how I think 6/5 is good on them to win the all Ireland.

Because they may need to beat all three to win the All-Ireland.

sonnky

ft9 wrote: »

What's the odds?

11/4 with powers, potentially 3 more games for the cats!

ft9

BKC wrote: »

ft9 wrote: »

I don't see the relevance of what price I think kk should be against cork tipp and Galway to how I think 6/5 is good on them to win the all Ireland.

Because they may need to beat all three to win the All-Ireland.

Yes but the individual prices have nothing to do with outright price.

BKC

ft9 wrote: »

Yes but the individual prices have nothing to do with outright price.

Yes they do - to determine if it is good value.

KevIRL

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

On current form, what way would you price them against Cork (quarter final), Tipperary (semi final) or Galway (final)? No disrespect to Waterford or Wexford, just picking the toughest / most likely path to the title.

I wouldnt go near the bet either, the odds are too skinny for the path they will have to take. However they are unlikely to have to play Cork in the QF. Assuming the 3 favourites this weekend (Tipp, Cork, Clare) all win then KK will play Clare in a QF.

I do agree with the sentiment of yer post in general though

MrJoeSoap

KevIRL wrote: »

I wouldnt go near the bet either, the odds are too skinny for the path they will have to take. However they are unlikely to have to play Cork in the QF. Assuming the 3 favourites this weekend (Tipp, Cork, Clare) all win then KK will play Clare in a QF.

I do agree with the sentiment of yer post in general though

Limerick are actually favourites to beat Clare this weekend with PP. I really can't call this game, Limerick haven't really been tested in their wins, but have banged in goals for fun. Clare will be on a high... Too tight to call, maybe slight value in Clare since they've beaten Limerick twice this year.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/gaelic-games/hurling/limerick-v-clare/winner

keane2097

ft9 wrote: »

Yes but the individual prices have nothing to do with outright price.

lol

ft9

keane2097 wrote: »

lol

How do they?

keane2097

ft9 wrote: »

How do they?

The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final". I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

keane2097

keane2097 wrote: »

The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final". I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

ft9 wrote: »

How less of a clue is it possible to have not to take draws into account?

Hence saying "tie" rather than game in my post? Not that it makes your idea of a distinction in the prices any less braindead, you obviously have to factor the two ways you lose any match bet into the price.

ft9

keane2097 wrote: »

The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final". I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

-The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final"

Wrong. Couldn't be more wrong in fact. If one of these ended in a draw, you'd look well with your accumulated odds.

- I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

I'm baffled as to how someone like yourself who clearly knows it all has no knowledge of a draw being a possible outcome in a hurling match, forcing a replay. So that's 3 possible draws you have overlooked.

-Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

Perhaps you should read your last point over and over to yourself until it strikes home.

MrJoeSoap

ft9 wrote: »

-The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final"

Wrong. Couldn't be more wrong in fact. If one of these ended in a draw, you'd look well with your accumulated odds.

- I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

I'm baffled as to how someone like yourself who clearly knows it all has no knowledge of a draw being a possible outcome in a hurling match, forcing a replay. So that's 3 possible draws you have overlooked.

-Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

Perhaps you should read your last point over and over to yourself until it strikes home.

He said "ties" not "matches". It would be the accumulated "to qualify" odds rather than match betting.

keane2097

ft9 wrote: »

-The event "Kilkenny win the All Ireland" is 100% the same as the accumulated events "Kilkenny win each tie from now up to and including the All Ireland final"

Wrong. Couldn't be more wrong in fact. If one of these ended in a draw, you'd look well with your accumulated odds.

- I'm baffled how you think they could be in any way distinct, they couldn't be any more dependant on one another.

I'm baffled as to how someone like yourself who clearly knows it all has no knowledge of a draw being a possible outcome in a hurling match, forcing a replay. So that's 3 possible draws you have overlooked.

-Christ it depresses me sometimes that they'll just let anyone waste their money in a bookies, how much less of a clue is it possible to have?

Perhaps you should read your last point over and over to yourself until it strikes home.

"Tie", not "match", as in the "To Qualify" odds. Try again.

keane2097

This should be very simple to understand.

If the AISH Final is between Kilkenny and Cork, the odds on KK to win the All Ireland are obviously the exact same as the odds on KK to win the tie between themselves and Cork.

You don't exactly need a degree in probability to see that if KK are in the semi final against Galway, with Cork awaiting the winner in the final, then the odds on KK to win outright are equal their odds to win the tie versus Galway, accumulated with their odds to win the subsequent tie against Cork.

This is genuinely simple stuff.

ft9

Anyone here who thinks Kilkenny at 6/5 is a terrible price, what odds will they offer me on them?

MrJoeSoap

ft9 wrote: »

Anyone here who thinks Kilkenny at 6/5 is a terrible price, what odds will they offer me on them?

6/5!

ft9

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

6/5!

Thought as much lol! Must back them now this week before odds shorten

keane2097

ft9 wrote: »

Anyone here who thinks Kilkenny at 6/5 is a terrible price, what odds will they offer me on them?

premierstone

lol the last two pages is a perfect example of why bookies will never be short of a few bob, I have a mixture of emotions tbh, it goes from embarassment to depression to downright lol.

ShamoBuc

premierstone wrote: »

lol the last two pages is a perfect example of why bookies will never be short of a few bob, I have a mixture of emotions tbh, it goes from embarassment to depression to downright lol.

Great entertainment though;)

Hulk Hands

Going on 100% markets, i'd imagine Kilkenny to be about 1.15 against Clare and 1.4 against Tipp. How impressive they were in winning would determine their prices against potentially Galway, but another 1.4 seems fair enough. Odds come to nearly 5/4, leaving the current 6/5 as a fair enough price considering commission.

However, I wouldn't touch 2/5 about KK against Tipp, and probably not against Galway either (Galway are generally good in Croker). Therefore i'm leaving the 6/5 well alone. I won't be laying either though

KevIRL

The first KK backlash well underway tonight. KK 3-14 Laois 0-6 in the Leinster u-21 final.

KK - 23 @ evs available in running. Snap it up

MrJoeSoap

KevIRL wrote: »

The first KK backlash well underway tonight. KK 3-14 Laois 0-6 in the Leinster u-21 final.

KK - 23 @ evs available in running. Snap it up

Apparently KK -19 was 6/1 pre-match. If I'd have seen that I'd have been all over it.

KevIRL

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Apparently KK -19 was 6/1 pre-match. If I'd have seen that I'd have been all over it.

sigh, tried to get onto PP about 705 this evening but site wouldnt load. Ah well

MrJoeSoap

KevIRL wrote: »

sigh, tried to get onto PP about 705 this evening but site wouldnt load. Ah well

Probably for the best now, the Laois mini-revival is looking decent. I got two bets on with Bet365 at 7.29pm.

Over 3.5 goals at 5/6
KK by 7-9 points at 5/1

sboyle01

Can't see much for tomorrow. Going to take Wexford (-2) 10/11 anyway.

paddymayoman

Is 10/3 too big for Roscommon or will there be a backlash from Tyrone after the court case?

loremolis

paddymayoman wrote: »

Is 10/3 too big for Roscommon or will there be a backlash from Tyrone after the court case?

I can't imagine that will be a topic of discussion in the Tyrone dressing room or a motivation to do well.

God bless Mickey Harte and his family for what they have gone through.

10/3 for Roscommon is a bit high.

KevIRL

A short look ahead to the weekends hurling

Cork v Wexford
Hard to see a lot of value here. Wexford will no doubt put up a decent showing but I can also see them fading pretty badly. Cork are -8 in the handicap, I'd expect them to win by about 6, so perhaps some small value there on Wexford +8, but wouldnt be going nuts. Wexford always a team likely to score goals, PP go 11/10 over 1.5 Wex goals, not a great price really. Will mostly give this game a wide berth.

Clare v Limerick
Most of the weekends value is here I feel. I think Limerick could get a significant win here and am definitely taking Limerick -1 @ 6/5. They have been scoring goals for fun, albeit against weaker opposition. Clare could easily have conceeded a few against Dublin and let in 2 against Waterford too, I think there is question marks about their backs and will be taking Limerick over 1.5 goals @ 5/6 and Limerick over 2.5goals 5/2.

Tipp v Waterford
I've been unusually negative about Waterford's chances this year. Tipp for me are well primed here for another big win. Most of the pundits expecting a close game, but I just dont see it. Tipp have had 2 games and a decent league. Waterford have had 1 competitive game since April 1st and there is a big gulf in class in these teams. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think Tipp -6 @ 10/11 will come home.

In the football one bet stands out for me Kerry - 6 @ 10/11 v Westmeath. I think this could very well be a whooping. Thought the handicap could easily have been double figures