GAA Betting

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Good work lads over the weekend. Profitable weekend with most of the games going as though. Tyrone, Kildare , Dublin treble happy days :-)

Offaly and Clare proved to be a good encounter in the end nice to see keane2097 hitting a winner there and at 2/1 nice price too.

KevIRL

Handicaps are up for this weekend for div 1A hurling. Cork -1 against Waterford is fantastic imo. Ladbrokes seem to be biggest at 10/11 for that. Also going -2 with PP @ 11/10.

Sent it into Keane for the PropPunt but not sure when he puts it up on the site so thought I'd throw it up here too.

KevIRL

KevIRL wrote: »

Handicaps are up for this weekend for div 1A hurling. Cork -1 against Waterford is fantastic imo. Ladbrokes seem to be biggest at 10/11 for that. Also going -2 with PP @ 11/10.

Sent it into Keane for the PropPunt but not sure when he puts it up on the site so thought I'd throw it up here too.

Cap moved to -2 (evs) everywhere except Boyles who are -1 (4/5). Still a bet imo

ciaran1988

Bennys Betting Box this week is

Antrim
Cavan
Leitrim
Tyrone

keane2097

I've had bets on Armagh +2 @ evens and Longford @ 5/4 so far. Leaning towards a bet on Dublin as well.

keane2097

Wexford look way too big to me away to Louth as well, what am I missing?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

keane2097 wrote: »

Wexford look way too big to me away to Louth as well, what am I missing?

Home teams seem to be getting alot of respect from the bookmakers. Actually going on our previous discussion about Offaly and Clare this seems similar to the Kerry/Dublin ,Offaly/Clare lines home team favoured too much maybe?

keane2097

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Home teams seem to be getting alot of respect from the bookmakers. Actually going on our previous discussion about Offaly and Clare this seems similar to the Kerry/Dublin ,Offaly/Clare lines home team favoured too much maybe?

Yeah that and bookies reading too much into very short term form.

By my rating, I'd have Wexford very slight favourites for this. In their three games so far they played very much in the boundaries of expectation in the first two, i.e. narrowly beating Longford at home (would have made them ~2.5pt favs) and drawing in Armagh (~1pt dogs).

In the first game, I'm pretty sure I opposed Longford which means the bookies slightly underrated Wexford/slightly overrated Longford (probably the latter).

In the second game I didn't have a bet so both teams were rated about right.

In the third game Derry beat them handily in Wexford unexpectedly. I would have made Wexford ~1.5pt favourites for that one so they were about 10pts below expectation. Considering I didn't have a bet on that game either the bookies obviously agreed with me again, which means that in all three games so far the bookies have rated Wexford very close to how I've rated them.

Now all of a sudden, they lose one game badly and their price and mine are out by a massive amount (1.95 vs 2.75). From this we can see that either I wildly underrate Louth (which is unlikely as I've only had one small bet against them to date based on bad info), both myself and the bookies have hugely overrated Wexford to date or the bookies are hugely overestimating the last game.

I think the massive likelihood is that it's the third option there, which is all a longwinded way of saying I've now backed Wexford and am very happy with it.

(I'll probably be using the above post in my column later as well!)

keane2097

Here's this week's bit, nothing major in it that hasn't been discussed here but I'd appreciate the clicks

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-well-be-churlish-if-we-want/

passremarkable

any more tips for today ?

ForeverYoung90

Kerry to finally get off the mark by beating Down at home in tralee tomorrow night.4/7 get on it large.

ShamoBuc

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Kerry to finally get off the mark by beating Down at home in tralee tomorrow night.4/7 get on it large.

Kerry are all over the place at the moment and could well be relegated without winning a match - it's possible. If you are considering going large on Kerry I would strongly advise you to wait and see the line up. They really need some of their more senior players back and I think Tomás Ó Sé is suspended aswell.
Down are no walk over either and I might have a flutter on them at 2/1 depending on Kerry's line up.
Kerry could well win - but there are far better matches to be lumping on I think than Kerry at the moment - especially without seeing the lineups.
Best of luck with the bet though.

I'm going for a Cork double at nearly 2/1 in Páirc Uí Rinn - should be 2 good games.

ForeverYoung90

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Kerry are all over the place at the moment and could well be relegated without winning a match - it's possible. If you are considering going large on Kerry I would strongly advise you to wait and see the line up. They really need some of their more senior players back and I think Tomás Ó Sé is suspended aswell.
Down are no walk over either and I might have a flutter on them at 2/1 depending on Kerry's line up.
Kerry could well win - but there are far better matches to be lumping on I think than Kerry at the moment - especially without seeing the lineups.
Best of luck with the bet though.

I'm going for a Cork double at nearly 2/1 in Páirc Uí Rinn - should be 2 good games.

Ya tomas is out but they have strong team with maher and declan o sullivan back also.
1. Brendan Kealy (Kilcummin)
2. Marc Ó Sé (An Gaeltacht)
3. Aidan O’Mahony (Rathmore)
4. Shane Enright (Tarbert)
5. Fionn Fitzgerald (Dr Crokes)
6. Killian Young (Renard)
7. Brian Maguire (Listowel Emmetts)
8. Anthony Maher (Duagh)
9. Eoin Brosnan (Capt) (Dr Crokes)
10.Jonathan Lyne (Killarney Legion)
11.Donnchadh Walsh (Cromane)
12.Johnny Buckley (Dr Crokes)
13.Declan O’Sullivan (Dromid Pearses)
14.Kieran Donaghy (Austin Stacks)
15.Darran O’Sullivan (Glenbeigh/Glencar)

ShamoBuc

That team looks ok but I wouldn't back them myself. If they have to bring Donaghy to midfield like they did in their previous games, their inside forwards won't be up to much - and their scoring averages have shown that.

keane2097

Don't really love anything this weekend unfortunately. The Kildare price Hills have moved to is going to force me to get involved in that one.

I'd lean in Kerry's favour in that match but probably not enough to back them.

Put together a few thoughts on my pick of the bets this weekend here if anyone wants to take a look:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-a-rockier-road-ahead/

keane2097

Pretty major tilt over that Dublin bet yesterday as Jim Gavin sends out a wildly different team to the one they announced. That situation is such a farce in the GAA, picking a believable dummy team is what most managers seem to do as the majority of their tactical planning. Gob****es.

I would probably have gone on a murderous rampage if I'd been in Croke Park and paid the 3 euro for an utterly redundant match program.

ShamoBuc

Had Dublin won by 3 or more my account would be around 90 greater - really annoying!!

manafana

st.brigids 13/10 with hills doesnt look bad shout, had small investment on kilcormac at 9/4 with paddys.

KevIRL

A cracking day in Kilkenny ahead of the Waterford-KK league match. Nice dry sod, could be pretty high scoring. Taking the overs (42.5 pts) @ 5/6.

Also doing a mugs treble

over 42.5 KK v Waterford
over 42.5 Gal v Tipp
Offaly - 6 v Carlow

Comes in a little over 9/1

ShamoBuc

KevIRL wrote: »

A cracking day in Kilkenny ahead of the Waterford-KK league match. Nice dry sod, could be pretty high scoring. Taking the overs (42.5 pts) @ 5/6.

Also doing a mugs treble

over 42.5 KK v Waterford
over 42.5 Gal v Tipp
Offaly - 6 v Carlow

Comes in a little over 9/1

Like the look of that - have gone for the over42.5 double and a single on kk over 24.5 at 10/11

ShamoBuc

Watching TG4 - Overs for Galway game in with 20 mins to spare:)


Edit: Pity there weren't another few goals in the KK game:(

KevIRL

Weather turned to crap in the second half, even with that it still could have come in, KK missed a couple of goal chances they score 9 times out of ten. Ah well.

jack747

just looking at the early prices for the matches at the weekend anyone think offaly at 6/5 away to waterford is bit overpriced..offaly have some decent forwards and could be too strong

KevIRL

jack747 wrote: »

just looking at the early prices for the matches at the weekend anyone think offaly at 6/5 away to waterford is bit overpriced..offaly have some decent forwards and could be too strong

V good indeed. Wheels coming off for Waterford somewhat plus the game isnt on in Fraher Field Dungarvan but rather in Walsh Park in the city as part of a double header with the hurlers. Fraher Field would certainly be the preferred venue for the footballers

dwyershane

is it just me or are Antrim hurlers a tad over priced at 13/8. Carlow are on a good run and at home but surely Antrim should be worth a few quid..

passremarkable

Any more ideas for today?

Hulk Hands

passremarkable wrote: »

Any more ideas for today?

Sligo are way too big at 7/4 against Fermanagh (boyles). Offaly (evs) footballers and Cork footballers (11/8 pp) would be my other two picks

KevIRL

dwyershane wrote: »

is it just me or are Antrim hurlers a tad over priced at 13/8. Carlow are on a good run and at home but surely Antrim should be worth a few quid..

Antrim 1-8 Carlow 0-2 latest. Looking good

Pudders

Limerick, Kerry and Kilkenny in the hurling at the weekend pays just over evens looks a decent bet.

Browney7

Pudders wrote: »

Limerick, Kerry and Kilkenny in the hurling at the weekend pays just over evens looks a decent bet.

Word of warning Limerick have named a weakened team and playing a few squad players.

Nice big bet on Kk -3 at home to cork I think