GAA Betting

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Mountainlad wrote: »

Just had a look at some match odds there today and noticed that there is a chance to make money no matter what outcome in the Longford v Wexford game as:

Wexford are 11/10 (with William Hill)

Longford are 11/10 +1 (with Paddy Power)

So you have all three outcomes covered, if you put a tenor on both you would make a 1 euro profit. Wouldn't be huge, but guaranteed profit is guaranteed profit.

Only problem is that it's not on until Saturday week so your money is tied up until then, sort of like having it in a savings account with a fixed rate of return but that your not allowed withdraw it for two weeks.

Thanks for that not often you get the chance to get 10% for nothing

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Welcome to the big bad world of arbitrage Mountainlad

Don't go mad on those unless you want your a/c closed. On first glance I was all over Wexford at that price, rethinking it now.

You wont get your account closed using two different bookies.

Mountainlad

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Thanks for that not often you get the chance to get 10% for nothing

Not a bother. Would have done it myself but no money to do it faoi láthair

Hulk Hands

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

You wont get your account closed using two different bookies.

What?? Do you mean that it'll only happen if you use the same bookies? Because it's nigh on impossible for an arb to appear in one bookies book?

Every day plenty of people search through oddschecker and such sites looking for arbs. The only shock is that more don't do it, it's free money after all. Bookies hate this as they can't win off that customer in the long run. If someone backs that arb, they'll likely get away with it. If they continuously back arb's they'll get caught, no question and their account will be heavily restricted or closed.

Rightwing

Hulk Hands wrote: »

What?? Do you mean that it'll only happen if you use the same bookies? Because it's nigh on impossible for an arb to appear in one bookies book?

Every day plenty of people search through oddschecker and such sites looking for arbs. The only shock is that more don't do it, it's free money after all. Bookies hate this as they can't win off that customer in the long run. If someone backs that arb, they'll likely get away with it. If they continuously back arb's they'll get caught, no question and their account will be heavily restricted or closed.

Nah, that;s not right, many punters still do it the old fashioned way and just go into the bookie, myself included. My only concern here would be the odds would change and I've stuck a few hunderd euro bet on some mickey mouse football match i know nothing about.

Mountainlad

Hulk Hands wrote: »

What?? Do you mean that it'll only happen if you use the same bookies? Because it's nigh on impossible for an arb to appear in one bookies book?

Every day plenty of people search through oddschecker and such sites looking for arbs. The only shock is that more don't do it, it's free money after all. Bookies hate this as they can't win off that customer in the long run. If someone backs that arb, they'll likely get away with it. If they continuously back arb's they'll get caught, no question and their account will be heavily restricted or closed.

Your probably right, but if all you ever backed was arbitrage opportunities you'd be on a pretty healthy profit before you were blocked I would imagine. I guess it depends on what your hoping to achieve. Course you could always go into the shops and back it if you wanted too.

At the end of the day I guess it comes down to how much your betting on it. Me personally, my stakes wouldn't be high enough I don't think for them to take immediate notice anyway.

RIALTO1

In this case as William Hill are one side, then shops ain't an option. But if you can get on in shops for the price that is out of line, then that is the way to go. Also, when I find an arb I often use it to give me a value bet rather than just tie in a small profit.

Say in the about example of 11/10 each of 2. If I actually fancy a particular side (lets call it A), and say my regular stake on that is €100. I would try to get €400 on at 11/10, and then put say €275 on the other side (Side .
Side A wins = €440 - €275 = +€165
Side B wins = €302.5 - €400 = -€97.50

So instead of getting 11/10 on something I like, I am getting nearly 17/10 on it (165/97.5)

Obviously you are gambling instead of free money, but you are definitely getting the odds in your favour.

keane2097

Arbing will get your accounts closed down within a couple of weeks. 100% correct.

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

Arbing will get your accounts closed down within a couple of weeks. 100% correct.

How do they know you are doing it ?

keane2097

Rightwing wrote: »

How do they know you are doing it ?

If you know an arb exists on a market they know it does as well. If you hit their markets that there are arbs available on even semi-regularly your account will get flagged. Happens pretty quickly, like do two or three in a month and you'll probably get done if you're betting at decent stakes unless you're a decent loser otherwise.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Arbing can be done successfully but you of course have to be mindful if you normally bet €50 per bet and suddently put €1000 on a game it could have traders look at your bet and possibly get you limited or maybe closed. Personally I have bigger problems getting bets on the Sports I want to back than getting a little profitable arb like this one on.

Mountainlad

Healthy debate here. Heard of arbitrage but never seen it there before, just thought I'd share it with you and let people decide themselves. Good to see the warnings being offered all the same.

Have a half season bet tip here. Looking at the hurling championship, I see that Galway are as short as 3/1 to win the all-ireland. Think they have a very good chance but given the championship we've had so far it is too short to me for them to win three games. I think it will get shorter after the weekend though as I am pretty sure they will beat Dublin.

So the next thing I'd be looking at is Joe Canning as player of the year. Again, unfortuantely 4/1 is too short to me much like the 7/1 they were offering before the championship also seemed a bit short. Of course if Galway do win the all-ireland, I'd say this is an absolute cert as the media love him so if you were planning on backing them to win the all-ireland I'd nearly just back this instead.


So the last thing, and most interesting one for me is the top scorer bet, This is how it currently stands:


Jack Guiney (Wexford) 1-32
Maurice Shanahan (Waterford) 1-29
Eoin Larkin (Kilkenny) 0-29
Paul Ryan (Dublin) 1-19
Joey Boland (Dublin) 0-18
Colin Ryan (Clare) 0-09

Skipped a couple in the middle but they were all for teams that are now out. Joey Boland is not a contender, and even if Clare were to get to the all-ireland final (don't see it) Colin Ryan would be doing well to claim it. So here's my write up on the others:

Eoin Larkin:
0-29 in 3 games (average of 9.66)

Ruled out on account of Tipp potentially winning and Henry Shefflin.

Paul Ryan:

Not likely as Dublin aren't big scorers and they should lose the next game. Has played 3 games and scored 1-19 (avg of 7.66)
If he plays the next two games with that avg then he will have 37 total points.

Jack Guiney:

Only guaranteed one game. Has scored 1-32 in 4 games (avg of 8.75). Scored 0-8 v Antrim, 11 v Carlow.
Avg of 08 in both Dublin games, most scored in first at home. Good player, probably won't see much of it from play though. Likely that Wexford will at least push the next team they play so he should get a decent score in that game. 8 points the next day would be 43 overall.

Maurice Shanahan:

Only guaranteed one game and will not be favourites. Having a good summer but against some poor teams. Has scored 1-29,
0-13 against Offaly and 1-9 v Westmeath. Avg in 3 games=10.66
Has hit an impressive 1-13 from play in last two games and was lively v Clare. Likely to get around 0-8 points the next day bringing his tally to 40 points.

Joe Canning:

Potentially the value bet. 0-11 in 1 game v Laois. Will face a defensive setup v Dublin but lethal. Galway can put up big scores, Galway have two games left at least.
Should they play 3 that avg would take him to 0-44. Last year his average was 0-11 over the course of the season.


So to sum that up then I actually think Canning is in the drivers seat here, though I am second guessing the championship which has been pretty unpredictable thus far. He can put up scores higher than 0-11 and it might just happen this Sunday. Biggest threats to me are Guiney and Shanahan because if one of their respective teams win their next game, with the extra game it's a sure thing that one of them will finish as top scorer. Reckon that Wexford are more likely to beat Clare (assuming they beat Laois) than Waterford to beat Tipp/Kilkenny.

I think Kilkenny will be beaten, many people don't feel that way of course but that's just how I see it.

In summary this is how I would look at the betting for it:

1. Joe Canning 8/1 (Paddy Power)
2. Jack Guiney 5/1 (PP, Boylesports and Bet 365)
3. Maurice Shanahn 5/1 (PP and Bet 365)

Don't think there is value in the other two (Paul Ryan and Larkin). A lot of money is going on Tipp to win the all-ireland, to do so they would play 5 games. Eoin Kelly will be there no1 free taker from now on but even at 33/1 I don't think he's a bet as they have a lot to do to get that far and he won't finish out the games.

Dots1982

Galway -6 is surely a great bet this weekend. I know Galway aren't great at the moment but they are at home on a sunny day. I can't really see Waterford being overly bothered.

Bookie Bashing

Dots1982 wrote: »

Galway -6 is surely a great bet this weekend. I know Galway aren't great at the moment but they are at home on a sunny day. I can't really see Waterford being overly bothered.

Dots in my opinion the Waterford team that is named would have been favourites over the Tipp team that started against galway. Galway struggled to beat Tipp only pulling away in the last 10 mins to win by 4. Unless you have inside info on the waterford camp and know they haven't been putting any work in i wouldn't agree with your opinion.

Carew is a decent manager and the Kerry game is irrelevent as they would have been or should have been preparing for the qualifiers all along as they had no chance of beating Kerry. Also the performance in the Kerry game wasn't helped due to the fact they didn't arrive at Killarney until 15 mins after throw in was due and were sitting in a bus for 5 hours and got a 5 min warm up when they arrived. (There was a massive accident that created a massive tailback into Kerry).

If there are any Deise men on the forum let us know how things are going with the footballers?

Dots1982

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Dots in my opinion the Waterford team that is named would have been favourites over the Tipp team that started against galway. Galway struggled to beat Tipp only pulling away in the last 10 mins to win by 4. Unless you have inside info on the waterford camp and know they haven't been putting any work in i wouldn't agree with your opinion.

Carew is a decent manager and the Kerry game is irrelevent as they would have been or should have been preparing for the qualifiers all along as they had no chance of beating Kerry. Also the performance in the Kerry game wasn't helped due to the fact they didn't arrive at Killarney until 15 mins after throw in was due and were sitting in a bus for 5 hours and got a 5 min warm up when they arrived. (There was a massive accident that created a massive tailback into Kerry).

If there are any Deise men on the forum let us know how things are going with the footballers?

Waterford have been out of action for a while. Galway had a game last week which should be key. If Galway are serious about improving themselves I would expect them to put Waterford away comfortably. Galway compete against a higher level of opposition consistently. I'll be frank. I have low expectations of waterford's football team. While I'm sure they will give it a lash. I think a lot of smaller teams let their heads drop easily. The result between Armagh and Wicklow suggests a large gulf between div 2 and div 4 teams. Armagh are maybe a bit better than galway but Wicklow would normally be far ahead of Waterford.

About the delay in the Kerry game of their team getting to the ground. How were they not granted an extra time of preparation for the match? Seems very unfair.

Mountainlad

Dots1982 wrote: »

Waterford have been out of action for a while. Galway had a game last week which should be key. If Galway are serious about improving themselves I would expect them to put Waterford away comfortably. Galway compete against a higher level of opposition consistently. I'll be frank. I have low expectations of waterford's football team. While I'm sure they will give it a lash. I think a lot of smaller teams let their heads drop easily. The result between Armagh and Wicklow suggests a large gulf between div 2 and div 4 teams. Armagh are maybe a bit better than galway but Wicklow would normally be far ahead of Waterford.

About the delay in the Kerry game of their team getting to the ground. How were they not granted an extra time of preparation for the match? Seems very unfair.

Would not put Wicklow very far ahead of Waterford by any means. Last year they played a qualifier match in Aughrim and lost to Wicklow by a point and in extra time I'm fairly sure. Gary Hurney also got sent off which according to some who were there cost them the match (understandably). Wicklow have had some good results at home in the qualifiers the last few years but the difference is that Waterford have not had a home qualifier since 2006. Since then there has been two progressive setups but I would imagine it's pretty demoralizing having to go away from home year on year.

Very quiet little or not talk about this game. I think Carew's setup has definitely been another step further than the players have experienced before in terms of professionalism. Their form in the Kerry game is very comparable to the league. They were only 4 down at half time v Kerry, and so had performed above expectation. This was similar to beating Clare away from home and beating Tipp at home in consecutive weeks. Then Kerry got a goal at the start of the second half (similar to losing at home against Limerick, a set back but not killer and one that was alwasy on the cards). But then they went into freefall and Kerry won the second half by 22 points which was hugely disappointing (much like the three consecutive defeats to London, Leitrim and Offaly in the league).

Galway really should be winning this game, but before you go backing any handicaps it would be worth checking if Galway are still missing as many as they were the last day. Don't think Waterford could name a stronger team, and I like the look of the forwards and midfield.

keane2097

Yeah Waterford are definitely better than they get credit for and are improving. Every time I back them Gary Hurney gets sent off though

Hulk Hands

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Dots in my opinion the Waterford team that is named would have been favourites over the Tipp team that started against galway. Galway struggled to beat Tipp only pulling away in the last 10 mins to win by 4. Unless you have inside info on the waterford camp and know they haven't been putting any work in i wouldn't agree with your opinion.

Carew is a decent manager and the Kerry game is irrelevent as they would have been or should have been preparing for the qualifiers all along as they had no chance of beating Kerry. Also the performance in the Kerry game wasn't helped due to the fact they didn't arrive at Killarney until 15 mins after throw in was due and were sitting in a bus for 5 hours and got a 5 min warm up when they arrived. (There was a massive accident that created a massive tailback into Kerry).

If there are any Deise men on the forum let us know how things are going with the footballers?

Galway actually pulled away early in the second half to go 9 clear. They took the foot of the gas in the last 10 mins, and Tipp got it back to 4. It was a strange match. Galway on top in the first half but kicked wide after wide. Then it all clicked for about 20 mins, then they dropped off again. I'd expect them to improve for that though, and they were probably worth more than the 4 point victory suggests.

ciaran1988

Down footballers -1 @ 11/8 is my bet of the weekend and with the way the hurling championship is going im going to try a draw between Kilkenny and Tipp @ 11/1

keane2097

El Puntero Propero is online if anyone wants to read my picks for this week

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-cest-la-vie/

Mountainlad

Took Tipp to win and both teams to score a goal at 21/10 with Paddy Power. Think Tipp will win myself, and so I see a lot more value with this than the 11/10 they've been backed into from 6/4 earlier in the week.

Both teams likely to score goals, PP have the whole Tipp full forward line shorter on the goals markets than Richie power who is the shortest Kilkenny player, suggests they think that full forward line is more capable of goals. And so do I, but I think Kilkenny will score one too.

In summary, selection:

Tipp v Kilkenny, Tipp win and BTTS a goal @21/10

KY Kevin

Tipp minors to beat Kerry minors at 10-11 with Paddy Power seems a good bet. The handicap market is -1 at 13-10.

Tipp beat Cork by 3 points after Cork fairly comfortably saw off Kerry in a replay below in Tralee. Kerry's team selection is fairly unsettled as well and they haven't had the same midfield partnership yet in the Championship.

That said, minor football is fairly unpredictable so won't be going in too heavy but still would be confident enough of this one.

Bookie Bashing

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Galway actually pulled away early in the second half to go 9 clear. They took the foot of the gas in the last 10 mins, and Tipp got it back to 4. It was a strange match. Galway on top in the first half but kicked wide after wide. Then it all clicked for about 20 mins, then they dropped off again. I'd expect them to improve for that though, and they were probably worth more than the 4 point victory suggests.

Apologies that's correct but i'm pretty sure tipp hit the post which would have made it a 1pt game with 10 mins to go? sorry my bad....

Anyone got betting on Hurney for the red card it's always good for the captain to lead by example!!! He seems to be banned every second week

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

El Puntero Propero is online if anyone wants to read my picks for this week

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-cest-la-vie/

i'm all over the 4/5 Tyrone & Galway 8/11 in the hurling in the to score the 1st goal markets. Actually time to post a couple of bets for the weekend!!

Tip 1 - (1st Scoring Play) Kerry to score the 1st point from a placed Ball 9/2

In the league game earlier in the year just under 50% of the total scores came from placed balls and with both teams wanting to get crowd going for this match you can expect a couple of heavy hits in the opening minutes. Unlike Cork, Kerry have an excellent long range free taker in Johnny Buckley and Cooper is also deadly accurate closer in. Darran O'Sullivan starting also helps us in this bet more than Donaghy as he draws a lot of fouls when he gets a run on the defence and with cooper feeding good ball from the half forward line this looks excellent value at the price.

Tip 2 - David Burke 1st Goalscorer 14/1

Let me start by saying PP are money back if Big Joe Canning gets the 1st score of the game! Ok so here is the dilemma they are 10/1 which when the Money back opportunity is included it's actually better value so i'll go with them plus the fact that Bet 365 don't Like me . David Burke hit 6 goals in the championship in 2012 including 3 goals in 4 appearances in Croke Park while Canning only got 2 goals and is 4/1 1st Goalscorer. Burke has gone under the radar a bit this year with Galway as he only came back to the squad for the last 2 league games having won the All Ireland Club with St. Thomas's where he played in midfield.

Tip 3 -1st Scoring Play Galway Hurlers Point From A Placed Ball 5/1 WILLIAM HILLBILLIES

Of Kilkenny's scores against Dublin in the replayed game 12 of their 15 scores came from placed balls. If you go back through all their matches a similar pattern emerges of the points scored against the dubs a high proportion are from placed when you consider the quality of Joe Canning from both frees, sidelines and the fact that Galway are 4pt favourites to win the game the value becomes increasingly apparent. LADS THIS IS A GREAT BET AND THE 5/1 IS SOME RICK

I also liked the look of this market in Clare v Laois game Boyles have Clare up at 4/1 haven't backed it yet though.

keysersoze0330

Having some of the lovely 4/5 from Boyles on the Tyrone to score 1st goal market. It won't last i reckon. PP quoting 4/7. Cheers Keane.

elhorse

Will Richie hogan not be taking frees for Kilkenny tomorrow? 8/11 for over 2.5 points looks a good bet

Bookie Bashing

2nd Batch of Tips!

Player Point Markets My Favourite waiting for Powers & Ladbrokes (once again Ladbrokes last up brutal) fair play to Boyles they have really upped their game since the start of the championship. Anyway there are a couple of nice markets with Boyles.

Richie Power Over 2.5pts 11/10 - I'll be honest here folks i wouldn't be his biggest fan but anyway!. This is a good bet for a couple of reasons No. 1 Eoin Larkin is playing brutal and has been for some time but he starts and will take the frees but he is one of the favourites for the Hook in my opinion. So step in Richie Power on free taking duty for hopefully 10/15 minutes of the game. Larkin is supposedly carrying an injury but that could be paper talk. No. 2 Richie is a genuine scoring threat from play and will take penos and 21 yd frees.

John O'Brien 4/6 & John O'Dwyer 8/11 Under 2.5pts - Both played really well against Limerick but O'Brien has never scored more than 2pts against KK in his career and that's 10plus matches at least. Don't get it? John O'Dwyer is bit more of an unknown quantity in the championship but i can't have a young lad 1/1 to score 3 or more from play in the proverbial Lions Den no way.

Unfortunately they do not have the Bonner up at all?, 1/1 to 6/5 is normally the price not to score which i have been backing him in practically every single game that i get the chance. Folks to tell you good this is i have collected on this bet 9 times out of 12 attempts and he scored a goal 2 of the times i didn't Collect. The Odds against that no doubt will be available makes no sense

Bookie Bashing

elhorse wrote: »

Will Richie hogan not be taking frees for Kilkenny tomorrow? 8/11 for over 2.5 points looks a good bet

larkin & if he isn't playing Power will take them

Mountainlad

elhorse wrote: »

Will Richie hogan not be taking frees for Kilkenny tomorrow? 8/11 for over 2.5 points looks a good bet

Nope, Eoin Larkin

Mountainlad

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

2nd Batch of Tips!

Player Point Markets My Favourite waiting for Powers & Ladbrokes (once again Ladbrokes last up brutal) fair play to Boyles they have really upped their game since the start of the championship. Anyway there are a couple of nice markets with Boyles.

Richie Power Over 2.5pts 11/10 - I'll be honest here folks i wouldn't be his biggest fan but anyway!. This is a good bet for a couple of reasons No. 1 Eoin Larkin is playing brutal and has been for some time but he starts and will take the frees but he is one of the favourites for the Hook in my opinion. So step in Richie Power on free taking duty for hopefully 10/15 minutes of the game. Larkin is supposedly carrying an injury but that could be paper talk. No. 2 Richie is a genuine scoring threat from play and will take penos and 21 yd frees.

John O'Brien 4/6 & John O'Dwyer 8/11 Under 2.5pts - Both played really well against Limerick but O'Brien has never scored more than 2pts against KK in his career and that's 10plus matches at least. Don't get it? John O'Dwyer is bit more of an unknown quantity in the championship but i can't have a young lad 1/1 to score 3 or more from play in the proverbial Lions Den no way.

Some really great calls particularly the first post. Serious research and cheers I will definitely take on one or two of those.

Just one thing I would oppose would be Bubbles (O'Dwyer). He's playing corner forward. Granted, things couldn't have gone much more right for him against Limerick when he came on but he's a serious talent and I'm surprised it took as long as this for him to see game time for Tipp at Senior level. Maybe no harm that it did though, he's 22 and it's something Cody has done regularly when not rushing to introduce younger players. This is exactly what he did with Paul Murphy who has been outstanding since coming in in 2011. How many players get nominated for hurler of the year in their second championship season? I'd imagine that tiny number is even smaller for corner backs!

If he was marking Paul Murphy that would be a great bet, but Conor Fogarty is who he'll likely be marking and he's having a torrid time since he came in. Tyrell equally is not fit and will struggle for pace, though he has the experience (and cynicism) to be able to cope. But their's potential for goals in that Tipp full forward line and I think we'll see that tomorrow, and Bubble's only needs one to beat that bet even if his marker has him in his pocket for the rest of the game!