GAA Betting

inforfun

skydish79 wrote: »

Fancy Mayo to go looking for some goals against london, they wasted a lot of goal chances in the last round

Bet 365 over 2.5 goals at 5/4

First GAA bet ever.

Thanks!

I think i ll stop now when ahead

manafana

inforfun wrote: »

First GAA bet ever.

Thanks!

I think i ll stop now when ahead

5/4 was huge was still a value 10/11 this morning

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

Gonna get on that over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 too. Seems great value and considering London have hit a few goals on the way to the Connacht final, it wont be a huge surprise if they hit a goal too.

But other than that there is no value other than maybe the keeper Rob Hennelly anytime scorer @ 7/1 (inc points and goals). Mayo wont have any recognized free taker other than Dillon and perhaps McLoughlin and Freeman. So 45s could be up grabs and Hennelly has in the past took a few (woeful ones:pac:) but he has also hit few on target too so maybe PP have mis-priced that one. Novelty bet but decent price all the same..

Meh should have let Hennelly take the pen after all his great kick outs in the game Ah well the decent money was on the overs which was never in doubt.

Fowler87

inforfun wrote: »

First GAA bet ever.

Thanks!

I think i ll stop now when ahead

Get those Dutch Footy tips at the ready now infor

inforfun

Fowler87 wrote: »

Get those Dutch Footy tips at the ready now infor

Next week Ajax - AZ for the super cup, Ajax -1 AH
It is being played in the Ajax stadium.

Ok, now i have to warn/ban myself for off topicness....

Mountainlad

Once again Keane great picks, you must be loaded after this weekend and last weekend?

keane2097

Mountainlad wrote: »

Once again Keane great picks, you must be loaded after this weekend and last weekend?

Yeah it's been a pretty rip-roaring season alright. Hopefully have some followers on the bets over the last couple of weeks.

FlawedGenius

Fowler87 wrote: »

Gonna get on that over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 too. Seems great value and considering London have hit a few goals on the way to the Connacht final, it wont be a huge surprise if they hit a goal too.

But other than that there is no value other than maybe the keeper Rob Hennelly anytime scorer @ 7/1 (inc points and goals). Mayo wont have any recognized free taker other than Dillon and perhaps McLoughlin and Freeman. So 45s could be up grabs and Hennelly has in the past took a few (woeful ones:pac:) but he has also hit few on target too so maybe PP have mis-priced that one. Novelty bet but decent price all the same..

Did he get a point??

Fowler87

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Did he get a point??

No didnt take any frees and dont think Mayo had a 45 either in the game.

Dots1982

Had money on there to be a red card in the mayo London game. Pissed off that its not a winner. W***** Referee bought into the London fairytale bull**** and let them way with about three incidents of striking. The worst being Lee Keegan getting 3 or 4 digs on the ground right in front of the ref. ref books keegan. Well done.

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

I don't really agree Mayo should have won by more at all tbh. Mayo buried every goal chance, London missed three excellent ones and one or two decent others.

With the greatest respect Keane that was a lucky winner and the previous poster was correct Mayo Kicked about 20 wides from easy scoring positions and i would be thinking with ten minutes to go Mayo were around 1/6 to cover the 18 point spread.

Basically my point is you cant say London missed a lot of chances and ignore mayo's wides and the referee gave london every free possible.

I didn;t have a bet in the game but just saying ... total respect though backed the no goalscorer in the donegal game

Bookie Bashing

William Hill 16/1 Cavan to win by 16pts or more got on this morning they are 10/1 now but still huge imo, also the -7pts is a brilliant bet fill your boots

loremolis

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

William Hill 16/1 Cavan to win by 16pts or more got on this morning they are 10/1 now but still huge imo, also the -7pts is a brilliant bet fill your boots

Where is that bet? I've got the app but it doesn't show those markets.

Mountainlad

loremolis wrote: »

Where is that bet? I've got the app but it doesn't show those markets.

I;d say they must have temporarily taken it down because I don't see it either.

Dots1982

Would they normally offer odds with out a date time & venue of the match being known.

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

With the greatest respect Keane that was a lucky winner and the previous poster was correct Mayo Kicked about 20 wides from easy scoring positions and i would be thinking with ten minutes to go Mayo were around 1/6 to cover the 18 point spread.

Basically my point is you cant say London missed a lot of chances and ignore mayo's wides and the referee gave london every free possible.

I didn;t have a bet in the game but just saying ... total respect though backed the no goalscorer in the donegal game

I would argue that the ref giving London everything, Mayo having a poor attitude and accompanying poor shot selection and easing up in the last ten minutes due to apathy and the heat on the day were all things that should have been factored in pre-match.

Mayo had 16 wides against Roscommon, 11 against Galway, 15 against Dublin, 11 against Cork and 15 against Donegal for an average of 13.6 wides in their last five games. Add to that they took every goal chance they created which is above expectation.

All things considered I don't think saying "they kicked 20 wides" and arguing they should have scored an extra 20 points is correct.

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

William Hill 16/1 Cavan to win by 16pts or more got on this morning they are 10/1 now but still huge imo, also the -7pts is a brilliant bet fill your boots

Wow that was an amazing spot. Hope you got plenty.

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

Wow that was an amazing spot. Hope you got plenty.

That was probably a mistake and they'll cancel it.

Power have Cavan at -11 @ 10/11

keane2097

Rightwing wrote: »

That was probably a mistake and they'll cancel it.

Power have Cavan at -11 @ 10/11

I doubt it was a mistake, William Hill are so bad at GAA I don't know why they bother trying to set their own lines. That being said they are at least good at knowing when they're beat i.e. closing three accounts I had use of in three weeks at the start of the league last year. Haven't even been able to back a horse with them for over a euro since.

There's a good chance now they'll realise how bad their line was and call it a palp, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a real line they did their nuts on.

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

I doubt it was a mistake, William Hill are so bad at GAA I don't know why they bother trying to set their own lines. That being said they are at least good at knowing when they're beat i.e. closing three accounts I had use of in three weeks at the start of the league last year. Haven't even been able to back a horse with them for over a euro since.

There's a good chance now they'll realise how bad their line was and call it a palp, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a real line they did their nuts on.

I don't do online, but the shops always seemed to be close enough to the others.

why did they close your accounts?

Warper

Hills are an awful bookie for placing bets, cant get anything on with them so they can offer whatever stupid spread they want. FWIW they have Cork -4pts whereas PP have Cork - 6 pts

premierstone

Rightwing wrote: »

I don't do online, but the shops always seemed to be close enough to the others.

why did they close your accounts?

William Hills don't have shops in Ireland for the last 4 years?

Rightwing

premierstone wrote: »

William Hills don't have shops in Ireland for the last 4 years?

I used to go there a lot back then. Can remember there was very little difference in the prices, but the markets have changed massively since then, it's used to be nearly just the outright price and handicaps.

keane2097

Rightwing wrote: »

I used to go there a lot back then. Can remember there was very little difference in the prices, but the markets have changed massively since then, it's used to be nearly just the outright price and handicaps.

Yeah they're pretty crap these days anyway, couldn't tell you about back then.

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

I would argue that the ref giving London everything, Mayo having a poor attitude and accompanying poor shot selection and easing up in the last ten minutes due to apathy and the heat on the day were all things that should have been factored in pre-match.

Mayo had 16 wides against Roscommon, 11 against Galway, 15 against Dublin, 11 against Cork and 15 against Donegal for an average of 13.6 wides in their last five games. Add to that they took every goal chance they created which is above expectation.

All things considered I don't think saying "they kicked 20 wides" and arguing they should have scored an extra 20 points is correct.

Ok they hit 19 wides which is high tally in any game I would say anything over 20 for both teams is high in any game also, you say they didn't miss any goal chances how many times did they waste possession in good positions? if you expect a team to ease off in the closing period what price would you lay for the last 15mins in the match on both teams including draw on the basis Cavan are 7-10pts up.

In other words price the match from scratch over 15 min period based on the above info



I completely disagree with your opinion on the above

Hulk Hands

That 16/1 Cavan bet is the single biggest price cockup ive seen in GAA betting. I could argue that the current 4's is a big price. I wouldn't be surpirised if they called palp on it. Say bye bye to your a/c in any case. Raging I missed it.

Bookie Bashing

Hulk Hands wrote: »

That 16/1 Cavan bet is the single biggest price cockup ive seen in GAA betting. I could argue that the current 4's is a big price. I wouldn't be surpirised if they called palp on it. Say bye bye to your a/c in any case. Raging I missed it.

Ha ha I'm getting worried with all this error talk! The handicap was 7 price was no error but I'm guessing hills cleaned up at the weekend they were best price Kildare mayo Armagh Derry Donegal and they must have thought they were hot **** and went up 1st with hcaps which never happens could be wrong but I'd like to think that! And the idiot that up the price is hopefully going to lose all the cash they got last week

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Ok they hit 19 wides which is high tally in any game I would say anything over 20 for both teams is high in any game also, you say they didn't miss any goal chances how many times did they waste possession in good positions? if you expect a team to ease off in the closing period what price would you lay for the last 15mins in the match on both teams including draw on the basis Cavan are 7-10pts up.

In other words price the match from scratch over 15 min period based on the above info



I completely disagree with your opinion on the above

I don't think the same thing applies to Cavan this weekend as applied to Mayo last weekend.

No doubt the spread was a dog with ten minutes to go. Mayo were probably -3 for the last ten minutes considering they were up by 17/18. That's different from saying they should have won by way more than they did over 70 minutes.

London had what a lot of people are still saying was a legit goal disallowed (I think it was correctly disallowed tbh but it was still a very good goal chance) and also missed two 3/4 on 2 situations for a goal, another one where Hennelly had to rush 20 yards off his line to make a save and a diving block from Cafferkey to stop a Mulvey goalbound effort.

Mayo's conversion rate was maybe a bit lower on their point taking than what it normally is (we'll know for sure whenever dontfoul blogs about it), but as I posted on twitter about five minutes into the game Mayo's attitude to shot selection - mainly Aidan O'Shea shelling Hollywood shots from start to finish - was great news as expected for London backers. Several of the half backs were guilty as well.

Mayo's conversion rate on goal chances was above expectation, London's well below it.

If you put a gun to the head of every Mayo players' mother and said "go win by 30 or the old lady gets it" they probably could do it, but on the 70 minutes we were watching yesterday they were nowhere near good enough to in terms of shot selection. After 60 minutes they were likely to win by more than 18, but on goal chance conversion up to that point they were lucky enough to be in that position.

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

I don't think the same thing applies to Cavan this weekend as applied to Mayo last weekend.

No doubt the spread was a dog with ten minutes to go. Mayo were probably -3 for the last ten minutes considering they were up by 17/18. That's different from saying they should have won by way more than they did over 70 minutes.

London had what a lot of people are still saying was a legit goal disallowed (I think it was correctly disallowed tbh but it was still a very good goal chance) and also missed two 3/4 on 2 situations for a goal, another one where Hennelly had to rush 20 yards off his line to make a save and a diving block from Cafferkey to stop a Mulvey goalbound effort.

Mayo's conversion rate was maybe a bit lower on their point taking than what it normally is (we'll know for sure whenever dontfoul blogs about it), but as I posted on twitter about five minutes into the game Mayo's attitude to shot selection - mainly Aidan O'Shea shelling Hollywood shots from start to finish - was great news as expected for London backers. Several of the half backs were guilty as well.

Mayo's conversion rate on goal chances was above expectation, London's well below it.

If you put a gun to the head of every Mayo players' mother and said "go win by 30 or the old lady gets it" they probably could do it, but on the 70 minutes we were watching yesterday they were nowhere near good enough to in terms of shot selection. After 60 minutes they were likely to win by more than 18, but on goal chance conversion up to that point they were lucky enough to be in that position.

Having watched the game, I have to agree with you. Mayo were in 2nd gear. It was a total mismatch. It may have highlighted serious weakness in Mayo's forward line, as some of those misses were dreadful. Any team scoring ust 11 points v London is nowhere near good enough.

Hulk Hands

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Ha ha I'm getting worried with all this error talk! The handicap was 7 price was no error but I'm guessing hills cleaned up at the weekend they were best price Kildare mayo Armagh Derry Donegal and they must have thought they were hot **** and went up 1st with hcaps which never happens could be wrong but I'd like to think that! And the idiot that up the price is hopefully going to lose all the cash they got last week

Whats in your favour is that they cut it to 10's, which would suggest it wasn't a technical error and you could certainly have a case to bring to ibas if they called error. I think i'm going to back that 4's, Mayo were odds on for that and London will be tired after last week in a big croke park and could easily go on the beer for the week.

Anyway, Laois did the business for me at a huge 5/4 last week. I cant call this the bet of the weekend after BB's ridiculous spot there, but I think they're way overpriced at 4's vs Donegal. They're very underrated and are coming in with momentum, unlike Donegal obviously. Of course, you have the 6 day turaround curse for losing provincial finalists. I thought this was a 9/4 shot or so, that 4's looks huge.