GAA Betting

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Ha ha I'm getting worried with all this error talk! The handicap was 7 price was no error but I'm guessing hills cleaned up at the weekend they were best price Kildare mayo Armagh Derry Donegal and they must have thought they were hot **** and went up 1st with hcaps which never happens could be wrong but I'd like to think that! And the idiot that up the price is hopefully going to lose all the cash they got last week

I've no doubt that's exactly what happened, they probably won't call it a palp at all but you could see it depending how stung they're likely to be. Good news for you that they changed so quickly I'd say.

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

I don't think the same thing applies to Cavan this weekend as applied to Mayo last weekend.

No doubt the spread was a dog with ten minutes to go. Mayo were probably -3 for the last ten minutes considering they were up by 17/18. That's different from saying they should have won by way more than they did over 70 minutes.

London had what a lot of people are still saying was a legit goal disallowed (I think it was correctly disallowed tbh but it was still a very good goal chance) and also missed two 3/4 on 2 situations for a goal, another one where Hennelly had to rush 20 yards off his line to make a save and a diving block from Cafferkey to stop a Mulvey goalbound effort.

Mayo's conversion rate was maybe a bit lower on their point taking than what it normally is (we'll know for sure whenever dontfoul blogs about it), but as I posted on twitter about five minutes into the game Mayo's attitude to shot selection - mainly Aidan O'Shea shelling Hollywood shots from start to finish - was great news as expected for London backers. Several of the half backs were guilty as well.

Mayo's conversion rate on goal chances was above expectation, London's well below it.

If you put a gun to the head of every Mayo players' mother and said "go win by 30 or the old lady gets it" they probably could do it, but on the 70 minutes we were watching yesterday they were nowhere near good enough to in terms of shot selection. After 60 minutes they were likely to win by more than 18, but on goal chance conversion up to that point they were lucky enough to be in that position.

Don't think it would have been 3 but def 2, I'm not saying Mayo should have won by 30 PTs I was just saying the bookies were correct at 18 and it fell in your favour and the way the match panned out it was a lucky winner in that sense

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Don't think it would have been 3 but def 2, I'm not saying Mayo should have won by 30 PTs I was just saying the bookies were correct at 18 and it fell in your favour and the way the match panned out it was a lucky winner in that sense

18 was definitely pretty close - I think they were a couple of points better than that but I don't think it was a huge edge or anything. I've seen a lot of people blathering on that Mayo should have won by loads more, sorry for conflating your opinion with theirs!

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

I've no doubt that's exactly what happened, they probably won't call it a palp at all but you could see it depending how stung they're likely to be. Good news for you that they changed so quickly I'd say.

Your probably right also backed the -4pts cork looks big

Radonman

Early bet for me a Donegal, Tyrone double nets 0.93 / 1 - Tyrone playing great stuff and Donegal with a point to prove after the weekend, looks solid enough to me

Also tomorrow evening Waterford Minors are playing Limerick in the replayed munster final, Waterford were caught rotten by a late surge from limerick in the drawn game - Limerick were 7 pts down with 5 mins to play and Limerick fired home a 21 yrd free and followed it up with 1-1 to draw the game. Waterford are powered by several Harty cup winners and really should have won the drawn game and @ 10/11 (-2) with PP i'll have some of that

Mountainlad

Radonman wrote: »

Early bet for me a Donegal, Tyrone double nets 0.93 / 1 - Tyrone playing great stuff and Donegal with a point to prove after the weekend, looks solid enough to me

Also tomorrow evening Waterford Minors are playing Limerick in the replayed munster final, Waterford were caught rotten by a late surge from limerick in the drawn game - they were 5 pts down with 5 mins to play and Limerick fired home a 21 yrd free and followed it up with 1-1 to draw the game. Waterford are powered by several Harty cup winners and really should have won the drawn game and @ 10/11 (-2) with PP i'll have some of that

Limerick actually scored 2-2 without reply in the last ten minutes. Being at home and having 20,000 roaring them on would have been no hindrance at the end either. It was only Limerick's second game however whereas Waterford have had 4.

They should have won that game by more than 8 points though and led the entire game by at least 3 from half time. Waterford have won at least one game in the Munster Minor championship since 2009 (the only team to do so) and in that time have made three Munster finals, winning one. But this to me is the best Minor Waterford team I've seen and really should be well able to beat that handicap on a neutral venue. Pity, it was evens up until today. Gonna take it too.

Also gonna go half stake on Stephen Bennett first goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a goal in every game bar the Tipp game (2 Against Clare and he only played 20 mins) and the first goal the last day. Scored 3-2 against Limerick as a 16 year old, and is the best player on the pitch tomorrow 2 years on. Takes penalties as well, and although he missed one last Sunday he scored one against Clare this year and Dublin in the all-ireland semi in 2011. Hopefully I'll be very happy all round tomorrow!

Radonman

Mountainlad wrote: »

Limerick actually scored 2-2 without reply in the last ten minutes. Being at home and having 20,000 roaring them on would have been no hindrance at the end either. It was only Limerick's second game however whereas Waterford have had 4.

They should have won that game by more than 8 points though and led the entire game by at least 3 from half time. Waterford have won at least one game in the Munster Minor championship since 2009 (the only team to do so) and in that time have made three Munster finals, winning one. But this to me is the best Minor Waterford team I've seen and really should be well able to beat that handicap on a neutral venue. Pity, it was evens up until today. Gonna take it too.

Also gonna go half stake on Stephen Bennett first goalscorer at 11/2. Scored a goal in every game bar the Tipp game (2 Against Clare and he only played 20 mins) and the first goal the last day. Scored 3-2 against Limerick as a 16 year old, and is the best player on the pitch tomorrow 2 years on. Takes penalties as well, and although he missed one last Sunday he scored one against Clare this year and Dublin in the all-ireland semi in 2011. Hopefully I'll be very happy all round tomorrow!

Totally agree with you - I've been following this Waterford team too but got may ass handed to me in the first round when Tipperary beat them:(, although Waterford were missing several i thought at home they would have had enough alas no - after your comment i'm gonna take any extra handicaps on offer too

Bookie Bashing

Radonman wrote: »

Early bet for me a Donegal, Tyrone double nets 0.93 / 1 - Tyrone playing great stuff and Donegal with a point to prove after the weekend, looks solid enough to me

Also tomorrow evening Waterford Minors are playing Limerick in the replayed munster final, Waterford were caught rotten by a late surge from limerick in the drawn game - Limerick were 7 pts down with 5 mins to play and Limerick fired home a 21 yrd free and followed it up with 1-1 to draw the game. Waterford are powered by several Harty cup winners and really should have won the drawn game and @ 10/11 (-2) with PP i'll have some of that

Brave radoman tbh if I was you h

Rightwing

Radonman wrote: »

Totally agree with you - I've been following this Waterford team too but got may ass handed to me in the first round when Tipperary beat them:(, although Waterford were missing several i thought at home they would have had enough alas no - after your comment i'm gonna take any extra handicaps on offer too

I was at the munster final, WD should have won well, but no 2 games are ever the same, LK have more improvement in them, but there was about 30,000 LK supporters cheering them on, had to be worth 4 or 5 points.

Mountainlad

Radonman wrote: »

Totally agree with you - I've been following this Waterford team too but got may ass handed to me in the first round when Tipperary beat them:(, although Waterford were missing several i thought at home they would have had enough alas no - after your comment i'm gonna take any extra handicaps on offer too

Oh jees, the pressure is on now :P

Bookie Bashing

Radonman wrote: »

Early bet for me a Donegal, Tyrone double nets 0.93 / 1 - Tyrone playing great stuff and Donegal with a point to prove after the weekend, looks solid enough to me

Also tomorrow evening Waterford Minors are playing Limerick in the replayed munster final, Waterford were caught rotten by a late surge from limerick in the drawn game - Limerick were 7 pts down with 5 mins to play and Limerick fired home a 21 yrd free and followed it up with 1-1 to draw the game. Waterford are powered by several Harty cup winners and really should have won the drawn game and @ 10/11 (-2) with PP i'll have some of that

I'd hold off on Tyrone I reckon you'll get bigger closer to the weekend Meath will have plenty of support at their current price. Can't see Donegal price shortening with the current news about mchugh

I agree big time on the minor game could be a special Waterford minor team (but they are kids so won't go in big)

premierstone

Radonman wrote: »

Early bet for me a Donegal, Tyrone double nets 0.93 / 1 - Tyrone playing great stuff and Donegal with a point to prove after the weekend, looks solid enough to me

Also tomorrow evening Waterford Minors are playing Limerick in the replayed munster final, Waterford were caught rotten by a late surge from limerick in the drawn game - Limerick were 7 pts down with 5 mins to play and Limerick fired home a 21 yrd free and followed it up with 1-1 to draw the game. Waterford are powered by several Harty cup winners and really should have won the drawn game and @ 10/11 (-2) with PP i'll have some of that

I have very little doubt that Waterford are a better team than Limerick but the reality is Waterford have played four games this year and only won one of them, they are not a team I would be investing too much of my hard earned cash in.

dougal-maguire

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

William Hill 16/1 Cavan to win by 16pts or more got on this morning they are 10/1 now but still huge imo, also the -7pts is a brilliant bet fill your boots

what time did the market go up at? will hill seem to be miles off at times. armagh to beat leitrim by 16 or more was 16/1 until kick off.

Bookie Bashing

dougal-maguire wrote: »

what time did the market go up at? will hill seem to be miles off at times. armagh to beat leitrim by 16 or more was 16/1 until kick off.

Monday morning it was there until around 11 was then cut into 10/1 and was up for an hour or so

Rightwing

Rightwing wrote: »

I was at the munster final, WD should have won well, but no 2 games are ever the same, LK have more improvement in them, but there was about 30,000 LK supporters cheering them on, had to be worth 4 or 5 points.

Limk win the minor by 3. As I said, no 2 games are ever the same. WD had the chance the first day.

1-20 : 4-08

Radonman

Rightwing wrote: »

Limk win the minor by 3. As I said, no 2 games are ever the same. WD had the chance the first day.

1-20 : 4-08

Thank god for mountain lad and S Bennett is all I can say - saved my ass

Mountainlad

Mountainlad wrote: »

Also gonna go half stake on Stephen Bennett first goalscorer at 11/2.

At least I'm not out of pocket, scant consolation though

hanlonm

Poor waterford the minors may have better luck sun

ft9

Galway -1 EVS against Clare looks a steal.

Rightwing

ft9 wrote: »

Galway -1 EVS against Clare looks a steal.

I'm not sure. It's a gamble, we don't know what Galway will turn up, they could wipe the floor with Clare or be well beaten. Best avoid imho.

shrewdness

This would have been a nice bit of inside info before the Ulster final!

Bookies caught on the hop by Beggan scores
25 July 2013

Bookmakers Paddy Power have forked out nearly €10,000 to punters who bet on Monaghan goalkeeper Rory Beggan scoring during last Sunday's Ulster SFC final.

Generous odds of 10/1 were available on the Scotstown clubman to get on the scoreboard. As it turned out, he slotted two points from frees to help the Farneymen to their first Anglo-Celt Cup success in a quarter of a century.

"Beggan hadn't been taking the frees at all during the championship, so we thought it was a safe bet to put him down at 10/1 to score against All-Ireland champions Donegal," a Paddy Power spokesman told the Irish Daily Star.

"However, he must have been nailing placed kicks in training or in his club games because nobody was more surprised than us when he scored two points. Several shops in Co. Monaghan had taken big stakes on Beggan at the weekend.

"We obviously got the odds really wrong and paid out through the nose for it."

www.hoganstand.com/ArticleForm.aspx?ID=197399

finky1

ft9 wrote: »

Galway -1 EVS against Clare looks a steal.

a better bet galway to be leading half time and win game 15/8:D

Bookie Bashing

Ok anyone want to hazard a guess as to what keane is tipping this week in the proper punter??????? #get a move on waiting all morning for the tips

Fowler87

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Ok anyone want to hazard a guess as to what keane is tipping this week in the proper punter??????? #get a move on waiting all morning for the tips

Over 2.5 goals in Cavan/London game perhaps @ 11/10? Going by last week I'd expect especially in big Croker pitch alot more goal chances

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Ok anyone want to hazard a guess as to what keane is tipping this week in the proper punter??????? #get a move on waiting all morning for the tips

Heh! Busy in work so won't get it done for a couple of hours probably but I think Cavan are a way too short.

Rightwing

Anyone know anything about Antrim minors. +19 seems generous V Waterford.

Mountainlad

Rightwing wrote: »

Anyone know anything about Antrim minors. +19 seems generous V Waterford.

It is hard to know really. Waterford have only had 5 days recovery which isn't a lot coming into this game, and of course they've to get over the disappointment fairly quickly. Antrim lost Ulster last year but look in far better shape this year winning it comfortably enough.

The last time they were in the quarters however they lost by 38 points to Galway in 2011. They reckon they're in better shape to be competitive this year but they would hardly suggest otherwise.

19 points is a lot for certain, but if Waterford come out with the right attitude there was enough evidence that they have the goal threat to really hammer minnows. 17 points I think they bet Clare by (albeit at home), Antrim are hardly better than Clare.

Waterford scored 4 goals on Tuesday, if they do that against Antrim they will likely beat that handicap.

Warper

I like Clare to be beat Galway - ht-ft is 10-3 as well.

They create 50 scoring chances per game and if Canning can be kept reasonably quiet then they have a great chance.

Mountainlad

Warper wrote: »

I like Clare to be beat Galway - ht-ft is 10-3 as well.

They create 50 scoring chances per game and if Canning can be kept reasonably quiet then they have a great chance.

Both teams to score a goal and Clare to win is 2/1, would more inclined to take that if I was betting on Clare. I think there's a bit of hyperbole surrounding the scoring chances, a lot of them are definitely shots taken without much chance rather than percentage shots. They are prone to a lot of wides, and also far from clinical.

Against Waterford they started brilliantly, and then made a terrible mistake for the goal and it was all Waterford for the rest of the half. Against Cork, they had their goal chancws but couldn't take them, Cork had the wind and got the run on them and it was plain sailing from there. The biggest indigtment of them is that they should have beaten Wexford by 10+ points, and somehow they still managed to draw after normal time. Worth noting that your bet would have lost in all three games, when it should have won in at least two of them (Wexford and if they had taken their goal chances they would have beaten Cork. Maybe if I wasn't from Waterford I'd be saying all three of them!!)

They are prone to giving away soft goals (and in fairness Galway take their chances when they arise), and their team bears a hallmark of Waterford under Davy: they should be better than they are hurling wise, they have the players but they're basic skills aren't what they should be.

Whatever result you fancy, I will be very surprised if this game doesn't produce goals. I'm gonna go with Galway and BTTS a goal as one bet in this match.

Uncle Mclovin

Whats peoples opinion on the Donegal Laois game tomorrow evening.

Donegal -3 is 10/11 on PP.

Hard to see them not bouncing back against Laois. They could never be as flat as they were last weekend. McHugh is out for them which would be my only concern. Murphy didn't get a touch the last day. He'll surely be more involved in this game.

Don't know too much about Laois to be honest as I havn't seen them play too often. They lost by 10 to Louth in Leinster and have had 3 wins on the trot in the qualifiers against Carlow 3-13 to 0-12, Clare 3-17 to 0-10 and against Wexford 2-08 to 0-16. All weak enough opposition.