GAA Betting

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Just a small trixie for me this weekend throwing 50 on it -

Galway +7, Donegal -3 and draw Meath/Tyrone

Hulk Hands

Uncle Mclovin wrote: »

Whats peoples opinion on the Donegal Laois game tomorrow evening.

Donegal -3 is 10/11 on PP.

Hard to see them not bouncing back against Laois. They could never be as flat as they were last weekend. McHugh is out for them which would be my only concern. Murphy didn't get a touch the last day. He'll surely be more involved in this game.

Don't know too much about Laois to be honest as I havn't seen them play too often. They lost by 10 to Louth in Leinster and have had 3 wins on the trot in the qualifiers against Carlow 3-13 to 0-12, Clare 3-17 to 0-10 and against Wexford 2-08 to 0-16. All weak enough opposition.

Laois ran the Dubs close enough in an AI QF last year, beating meath before that. They were excellent at times in the league and are thoroughly underrated. I think they're a good bet at 4/1 for this match. A lot depends on Donagal of course on a 6 day turnaround. If they're at their best that 3 point handicap could look great. Bit if theyre off their game, loais are easily good enough to beat them

Rightwing

A bet I'm taking is in the KK-Cork game.

Over 43.5 points.

So far, KK have been poor, but they are bound to start scoring soon. Cork play an open game that allows for high scores.

Uncle Mclovin

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Laois ran the Dubs close enough in an AI QF last year, beating meath before that. They were excellent at times in the league and are thoroughly underrated. I think they're a good bet at 4/1 for this match. A lot depends on Donagal of course on a 6 day turnaround. If they're at their best that 3 point handicap could look great. Bit if theyre off their game, loais are easily good enough to beat them

Cheers. Might take a pass on this one.

keane2097

Does the 9/1 about Donegal for the All Ireland look like an overreaction to anyone else?

Surely they should be more like 13/2?

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

Does the 9/1 about Donegal for the All Ireland look like an overreaction to anyone else?

Surely they should be more like 13/2?

Absolutely not.

Extremely difficult to put 2 football all irelands back to back.

Mountainlad

keane2097 wrote: »

Does the 9/1 about Donegal for the All Ireland look like an overreaction to anyone else?

Surely they should be more like 13/2?

They've shown they can win one, they still would be one of the best teams in the Country. But I suppose they have to win 4 games, if they came out and gave a convincing performance against Laois I guess the odds as they progress might make that bet now value should they reach the final.

What did you make of last weekends game? Monaghan's intensity and apparent hunger were impressive, but Donegal seem very tired to me anyway which wouldn't be a grat surprise given the nature of their style and the games they've played since McGuinness took over in 2011. Their shooting was absolutely horrific, I would say that too is a side effect of tiredness.

keane2097

Rightwing wrote: »

Absolutely not.

Extremely difficult to put 2 football all irelands back to back.

They don't need to win two, they just need to win one!

Mountainlad wrote: »

They've shown they can win one, they still would be one of the best teams in the Country. But I suppose they have to win 4 games, if they came out and gave a convincing performance against Laois I guess the odds as they progress might make that bet now value should they reach the final.

What did you make of last weekends game? Monaghan's intensity and apparent hunger were impressive, but Donegal seem very tired to me anyway which wouldn't be a grat surprise given the nature of their style and the games they've played since McGuinness took over in 2011. Their shooting was absolutely horrific, I would say that too is a side effect of tiredness.

I think they had a complete off day against Monaghan, if you check out Dontfoul's blog (http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2013/07/22/monaghan-v-donegal-2013-2/) you'll say their shooting was -3.696pts below AVERAGE, and when you check the stats from all of last year which continued through the first few Champ games this year (http://www.livegaelic.com/features/donegals-season-so-far-breaking-down-the-stats/) Donegal's conversion rate over a decent sample is usually well above average.

An off day is something that happens to everyone, I'm not convinced there's a grand pattern, like I don't think being tired explains McFadden missing frees that he hasn't missed in two years. He didn't get tired between the Down game in which he was utterly superb and the Monaghan game in which he was terrible.

They're definitely worse and more vulnerable than last year but I don't think they're 9/1.

Rightwing

keane2097 wrote: »

They don't need to win two, they just need to win one!



I think they had a complete off day against Monaghan, if you check out Dontfoul's blog (http://dontfoul.wordpress.com/2013/07/22/monaghan-v-donegal-2013-2/) you'll say their shooting was -3.696pts below AVERAGE, and when you check the stats from all of last year which continued through the first few Champ games this year (http://www.livegaelic.com/features/donegals-season-so-far-breaking-down-the-stats/) Donegal's conversion rate over a decent sample is usually well above average.

An off day is something that happens to everyone, I'm not convinced there's a grand pattern, like I don't think being tired explains McFadden missing frees that he hasn't missed in two years. He didn't get tired between the Down game in which he was utterly superb and the Monaghan game in which he was terrible.

They're definitely worse and more vulnerable than last year but I don't think they're 9/1.

But that 1 will be a bridge too far imho. They should beat Laois, and I would say that's where their story will end.

Bookie Bashing

keane2097 wrote: »

Does the 9/1 about Donegal for the All Ireland look like an overreaction to anyone else?

Surely they should be more like 13/2?

Averages Prices through to the final 1.25 2.5 1.8 1.7 = 9.5

They have not played anywhere near to the level this year that they reached last year and it's not just a tap you can turn on. I know the league is 'irrelevant' but they failed to win games they would have targeted like the dublin and mayo games

Also every performance so far in the championship way below par including the Tyrone game (IMO if Donegal had to have played Down & then Tyrone, Tyrone would be Ulster Champions don't think they had the belief that they could beat Donegal despite winning in the league.

The unbeatable indian sign is gone and they are vulnerable!

keane2097

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Averages Prices through to the final 1.25 2.5 1.8 1.7 = 9.5

They have not played anywhere near to the level this year that they reached last year and it's not just a tap you can turn on. I know the league is 'irrelevant' but they failed to win games they would have targeted like the dublin and mayo games

Also every performance so far in the championship way below par including the Tyrone game (IMO if Donegal had to have played Down & then Tyrone, Tyrone would be Ulster Champions don't think they had the belief that they could beat Donegal despite winning in the league.

The unbeatable indian sign is gone and they are vulnerable!

Yeah I actually spent the last five minutes doing my multiplication and it's actually not great at all. Carry on!

willabur

I think the biggest indicator to lay donegal is that only kerry won all-irelands back to back since 1990s

its not a question of capability as they have already proved they are capable of winning the tournament, its all about the mental side, hunger, appetite is naturally going to wane while close competitors will increase

keane2097

Sorry it's a bit late and a bit light lads, under pressure today!

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-striking-while-the-iron-is-hot/

Rightwing

willabur wrote: »

I think the biggest indicator to lay donegal is that only kerry won all-irelands back to back since 1990s

its not a question of capability as they have already proved they are capable of winning the tournament, its all about the mental side, hunger, appetite is naturally going to wane while close competitors will increase

And that post is on the money. I think it was Cork who were the last team to win back to back.

Hulk Hands

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Averages Prices through to the final 1.25 2.5 1.8 1.7 = 9.5

Yeah this is fairly spot on. Interestingly enough, do the same for Kilkenny in the Hurling there (hardest route) and see what you get

Bookie Bashing

I backed galway last week because i thought they were a massive price but i'll be honest with you i'd rather back the 20/1 Cork -14pts than Galway @ 13/2 to win the match.

I don't get the Cork bashing in the Kerry game?

Hulk Hands

keane2097 wrote: »

Sorry it's a bit late and a bit light lads, under pressure today!

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-striking-while-the-iron-is-hot/

I actually agree with you an awful lot, so quite reassured to find I finally disagree with you on something today! The logic regarding London is very sound in a normal championship match. But I really don't think this is. London will be spent in my view. They are on a 6 day turnaround (hard enough for normal teams, so will be very hard for London). I think they realise their season is over and they have to get back to normal working life in London. Despite the novelty factor of Croker, it's wide expanses will actually be a disadvantage to them. I have a feeling their minds will also be on the beer after (if not before). Last week you made the point about Mayo having no desire to take London to the cleaners. I see the opposite with Cavan. They have to make a point prior to their QF, and they don't get many opportunities to run up a score. First time in Croker in so long, they'll be all out. Not that im advising Cavan -12. Bookie Bashing's magical 16/1 spot, Cavan 16 or more, still makes no sense at 7/2 with a 12 point handicap. It was 4's until this morn. London will either make a game of this or crumble. That bet is a 5/2 shot max.

On the Donegal game vs Galway game handicap reference, I think there's reasons for the difference in points, although I also think the Glaway one is slightly big. Firstly Laois are ahead of Galway. They took Galway to the cleaners in the league and have been far better in championship in recent times. Secondly, Donegal have the dreaded 6 day turnaround qualifier curse, and injuries unlike Cork. I think Laois will give a good account of themselves, wheras Galway could win or be beaten out the gate. So while i'm on the Galway side of things, i'd much sooner back them to win at 7/1 rather than the handicap, with Galway being so ridiculously inconsistent. Cork have also shown the ability to blow teams out of the water once they take control (Clare, Kildare, Limerick etc)

Bookie Bashing

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I actually agree with you an awful lot, so quite reassured to find I finally disagree with you on something today! The logic regarding London is very sound in a normal championship match. But I really don't think this is. London will be spent in my view. They are on a 6 day turnaround (hard enough for normal teams, so will be very hard for London). I think they realise their season is over and they have to get back to normal working life in London. Despite the novelty factor of Croker, it's wide expanses will actually be a disadvantage to them. I have a feeling their minds will also be on the beer after (if not before). Last week you made the point about Mayo having no desire to take London to the cleaners. I see the opposite with Cavan. They have to make a point prior to their QF, and they don't get many opportunitied to run up a score. First time in Croker in so long, they'll be all out. Not that im advising Cavan -12. Bookie Bashing's magical 16/1 spot, Cavan -16, still makes no sense at 7/2 with a 12 point handicap. It was 4's until this morn. London will either make a game of this or crumble. That bet is a 5/2 shot max.

On the Donegal game vs Galway game handicap reference, I think there's reasons for the difference in points, although I also think the Glaway one is slightly big. Firstly Laois are ahead of Galway. They took Galway to the cleaners in the league and have been far better in championship in recent times. Secondly, Donegal have the dreaded 6 day turnaround qualifier curse, and injuries unlike Cork. I think Laois will give a good account of themselves, wheras Galway could win or be beaten out the gate. So while i'm on the Galway side of things, i'd much sooner back them to win at 7/1 rather than the handicap, with Galway being so ridiculously inconsistent. Cork have also shown the ability to blow teams out of the water once they take control (Clare, Kildare, Limerick etc)

Your talking an awful lot of sense you took the words out of my mouth there when discussing the Donegal & Cork analogy but you also forgot to mention that Cork actually played brilliant football in the 2nd half and identified all the areas that Kerry were causing trouble in the 1st half by half time. The Cork team looks a lot stronger for tomorrow's game and the bench has at least 4 scores on it when they get on the pitch. Also i thought Kerry were unplayable in the 1st half it was exceptional stuff.

In the London game i think the current handicap is correct and although Cavan have a great chance of covering the 12pt spread there is no way i'd back it at 3/1 or whatever it is now

willabur

Rightwing wrote: »

And that post is on the money. I think it was Cork who were the last team to win back to back.

Kerry won in 2006 and 2007

Bookie Bashing

willabur wrote: »

Kerry won in 2006 and 2007

Donegal 2013 would remind you of Dublin 2012?

willabur

Very much so

the best thing that could happen them is Laois in round 4 - while the 6 day turnaround has been notorious in the past I cannot see anything but a healthy win here for Donegal. Last week stung them and laois were blessed to come through against wexford.
That said it'll be interesting to see what way laois approach it, will they attempt to ape monaghan? Do they have the personnel to do it?

Rightwing

willabur wrote: »

Kerry won in 2006 and 2007

Forgot that. A few cheap ones v Mayo & Cork!

Still think Donegal aren't good enough to win 2. Scoring seems a problem for them.

Bookie Bashing

willabur wrote: »

Very much so

the best thing that could happen them is Laois in round 4 - while the 6 day turnaround has been notorious in the past I cannot see anything but a healthy win here for Donegal. Last week stung them and laois were blessed to come through against wexford.
That said it'll be interesting to see what way laois approach it, will they attempt to ape monaghan? Do they have the personnel to do it?

I wouldn't think there is a much between Laois and Monaghan and getting rid of the likes of Quigley who according to a couple of the current squad was no good around the place they are supposedly much happier camp since those lads went.

Also Wexford are a good side so scraping past them down there isn't bad form, as i write i realise i'm building laois up but just stating the reasons why although it's very possible Donegal win easy against them there are enough negatives to put me right off

1. 6 Day turnaround (Donegal definitely have not prepared for this)
2. Donegal's form particularly in the 2nd half against Monaghan they were outplayed
3. Mark McHugh
4. Laois know Jim McGuinness's Donegal pretty well beat them in Div 1 in 2012 beat them in Div 2 in 2011 and lost in the league final by 1 or maybe 2pts in 2011
5. Laois proved last year against Dublin that they are capable of competing with top sides
6. They have Division 1 experience
7. Carrick on Shannon (doesn't exactly play to the strength of the teams that get a lot of possession and normally favours the underdog, that's not a great point in fairness but however!)

Bookie Bashing

Hurling Championship Top Scorer has just become very interesting from a betting perspective KING HENRY IS BACK IN KILKENNY LINE UP FOLKS AND THAT"S THE END OF EOIN LARKIN on frees i would think?

Larkin is on 45 (1/3) Paul Ryan on 35 (11/4) Colin Ryan 31 (5/1) & Big Joe 21 (11/2) where does the value lie????? Joe averages at least 2.5pts more per game than any of the others and should they win could close the gap on ryan to 3/4pts and then surely Joe would be a strong favourite on the basis that Galway can't play Dublin (Dubs v KK in the semi's assuming they win)

Discuss?

Mountainlad

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Hurling Championship Top Scorer has just become very interesting from a betting perspective KING HENRY IS BACK IN KILKENNY LINE UP FOLKS AND THAT"S THE END OF EOIN LARKIN on frees i would think?

Larkin is on 45 (1/3) Paul Ryan on 35 (11/4) Colin Ryan 31 (5/1) & Big Joe 21 (11/2) where does the value lie????? Joe averages at least 2.5pts more per game than any of the others and should they win could close the gap on ryan to 3/4pts and then surely Joe would be a strong favourite on the basis that Galway can't play Dublin (Dubs v KK in the semi's assuming they win)

Discuss?

I would have thought it was a guarantee that he'd be back on the frees, they may do it anyway to try and boost his confidence a bit. But he wasn't taking them despite playing pretty much the whole second half against Waterford. He was actually taken off for extra time because he was playing quite poorly.

Depends on what way Cody looks at it. He may not let him take the frees as Larkin is doing fine and he may want Henry to get into it from open play. Expecting him to line out at full forward on what is ear marked as Cork's weak link in Stephen McDonnell, so that would obviously be a big part of Kilkenny's game plan to try and exploit that. And he is the master at doing just that to be fair to him!

Despite in the last few months playing down the potential significance of the return of Shefflin for Kilkenny, and only feeling vindicated on what I saw against Waterford, I would actually consider taking him in a goalscorers market depending on what odds are available.

Rightwing

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Hurling Championship Top Scorer has just become very interesting from a betting perspective KING HENRY IS BACK IN KILKENNY LINE UP FOLKS AND THAT"S THE END OF EOIN LARKIN on frees i would think?

Larkin is on 45 (1/3) Paul Ryan on 35 (11/4) Colin Ryan 31 (5/1) & Big Joe 21 (11/2) where does the value lie????? Joe averages at least 2.5pts more per game than any of the others and should they win could close the gap on ryan to 3/4pts and then surely Joe would be a strong favourite on the basis that Galway can't play Dublin (Dubs v KK in the semi's assuming they win)

Discuss?

Answered.

Bookie Bashing

Mountainlad wrote: »

I would have thought it was a guarantee that he'd be back on the frees, they may do it anyway to try and boost his confidence a bit. But he wasn't taking them despite playing pretty much the whole second half against Waterford. He was actually taken off for extra time because he was playing quite poorly.

Depends on what way Cody looks at it. He may not let him take the frees as Larkin is doing fine and he may want Henry to get into it from open play. Expecting him to line out at full forward on what is ear marked as Cork's weak link in Stephen McDonnell, so that would obviously be a big part of Kilkenny's game plan to try and exploit that. And he is the master at doing just that to be fair to him!

Thanks Mountain lad your probably correct there as if i remember correctly they tried to turn Richie Power into the free taker early in last year's championship so as not to have henry doing more running and moving than actually required, Power was so bad that they had to change it midway through the 2nd game they played

Radonman

Fantastic discussion there lads regards the Donegal / Laois game - for me tomorrow the first game is the one that interests me Cavan v London in the goals market, London to score over .5 goals @ evens with paddys is great - if the Mayo game is anything to go by team seem to take London for granted giving them the chance to score a goal ( they had 3 clear goal chance against Mayo and scored goals in both Leitrim games). On the opposite side Cavan should score too so Cavan over 1.5 and 2.5 should come in @ 8/11 and 2/1 with Ladbrokes

Bookie Bashing

Radonman wrote: »

Fantastic discussion there lads regards the Donegal / Laois game - for me tomorrow the first game is the one that interests me Cavan v London in the goals market, London to score over .5 goals @ evens with paddys is great - if the Mayo game is anything to go by team seem to take London for granted giving them the chance to score a goal ( they had 3 clear goal chance against Mayo and scored goals in both Leitrim games). On the opposite side Cavan should score too so Cavan over 1.5 and 2.5 should come in @ 8/11 and 2/1 with Ladbrokes

Radoman im pretty sure i saw 7/4 London to score a goal earlier today with Hills i definitely think that is big but kind of agree with Powers price Cavan are pretty stingy at the back

Bookie Bashing

Bookie Bashing wrote: »

Radoman im pretty sure i saw 7/4 London to score a goal earlier today with Hills i definitely think that is big but kind of agree with Powers price Cavan are pretty stingy at the back

Actually they are 2/5 No London Goals so im pretty sure they would quote you something like 7/4 you requested a price otherwise you could back exactly 1 & exactly 2 London Goals = the combined price 6/4 with hills